• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.11
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• pp.769-779
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• 2017

As the occurrence of drought is recently on the rise, the reliable drought forecasting is required for developing the drought mitigation and proactive management of water resources. This study developed a probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting method using the Bayesian Networks and drought propagation relationship to estimate future drought with the forecast uncertainty, named as the Propagated Bayesian Networks Drought Forecasting (PBNDF) model. The proposed PBNDF model was composed with 4 nodes of past, current, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasted information and the drought propagation relationship. Using Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), the PBNDF model was applied to forecast the hydrological drought condition at 10 gauging stations in Nakdong River basin. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was applied to measure the forecast skill of the forecast mean values. The root mean squared error (RMSE) and skill score (SS) were employed to compare the forecast performance with previously developed forecast models (persistence forecast, Bayesian network drought forecast). We found that the forecast skill of PBNDF model showed better performance with low RMSE and high SS of 0.1~0.15. The overall results mean the PBNDF model had good potential in probabilistic drought forecasting.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.48-48
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• 2023

The intensified droughts under climate change are expected to threaten stable water resource availability. Droughts exceeding the magnitude of historical variability could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. It is crucial to understand how drought will evolve over time because the assumption of hydrological stationarity of the past decades would be inappropriate for future water resources management. However, the timing of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and with existing water resources management and estimate the timing of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions that persist for over several consecutive years. This new metric enables a new quantification of the urgency of adaptation and mitigation with regard to drought under climate change. The times are detected for several sub-continental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust and earlier critical times under the high-emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood, regardless of the emission scenarios. In addition, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. Nevertheless, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable to when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.209-215
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• 2020

In order to understand the characteristics of natural droughts, it is very important to interpret the spatio-temporal relationship between different types of droughts. In this study, meteorological and hydrological drought events were defined to account for the overlap between drought duration and spatial extent in three dimensions (i.e., latitude, longitude, and timing). In other words, the spatio-temporal drought propagation characteristics were analyzed based on the drought characteristic factors (duration, area, depth, center). The drought map considering the characteristics of spatio-temporal drought propagation can be used to find the fundamental cause of the hydrological drought which is expected to frequently occur in the future. In addition, the drought map is expected to be useful in preparing an effective drought response plan.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.7
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• pp.523-534
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• 2021

Meteorological drought originates from a precipitation deficiency and propagates to agricultural and hydrological droughts through the hydrological cycle. Comparing with the meteorological drought, agricultural and hydrological droughts have more direct impacts on human society. Thus, understanding how meteorological drought evolves to agricultural and hydrological droughts is necessary for efficient drought preparedness and response. In this study, meteorological and hydrological droughts were defined based on the observed precipitation and the synthesized streamflow by the land surface model. The Bayesian network model was applied for probabilistic analysis of the propagation relationship between meteorological and hydrological droughts. The copula function was used to estimate the joint probability in the Bayesian network. The results indicated that the propagation probabilities from the moderate and extreme meteorological droughts were ranged from 0.41 to 0.63 and from 0.83 to 0.98, respectively. In addition, the propagation probabilities were highest in autumn (0.71 ~ 0.89) and lowest in winter (0.41 ~ 0.62). The propagation probability increases as the meteorological drought evolved from summer to autumn, and the severe hydrological drought could be prevented by appropriate mitigation during that time.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2005.05b
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• pp.1481-1485
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• 2005

This study aims at establishing master plan for efficient establishment of comprehensive drought management information system as non-structural drought counterplan which provides drought damage in advance. Domestic and abroad research related to drought were surveyed and analyzed through many literature and internet for systematic drought management information system. Long-term master plan for comprehensive drought management information system is divided into 3 steps. In first step, drought monitoring system including development of hydrological drought assessment index, drought outlook analysis method and GIS web based drought monitering system is established. In second step, water supply plan and guideline through water shortage danger assessment by areal characteristics is established. In third step, comprehensive management information system through export system linked to KORSIM and establishment of information shared system between each bureau related to drought. Based on this study, master plan for efficient development and application of drought management information system is proposed, it is expected to be applied as guideline for second and third step of drought management information system.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.153-166
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• 2022

Waterstorage is one of the factorsthat most directly represent the amount of available water resources. Since the effects of drought can be more intuitively expressed, it is also used in variousstudies for drought evaluation. In a recent study, hydrological drought was evaluated through information on observing reservoirs with optical images. The short observation cycle and diversity of optical satellites provide a lot of data. However, there are some limitations because it is vulnerable to the influence of weather or the atmospheric environment. Therefore, thisstudy attempted to conduct a study on estimating the drought index using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image with relatively little influence from the observation environment. We produced the waterbody of Baekgok and Chopyeong reservoirs using SAR images of Sentinel-1 satellites and calculated the Reservoir Area Drought Index (RADI), a hydrological drought index. In order to validate the applicability of RADI to drought monitoring, it was compared with Reservoir Storage Drought Index (RSDI) based on measured storage. The two indices showed a very high correlation with the correlation coefficient, r=0.87, Area Under curve, AUC=0.97. These results show the possibility of regional-scale hydrological drought monitoring of SAR-based RADI. As the number of available SAR images increases in the future, it is expected that the utilization of drought monitoring will also increase.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.165-170
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• 2011

Recently natural disasters such as the frequency and intensity of drought have been increasing as a result of climate change. This study suggests a drought index, WADI (Water Availability Drought Index), that considers water availability using 6 components (water intake, groundwater level, agricultural reservoir water level, dam inflow, streamflow, and precipitation) using the Z score and data monitoring on a nationwide level. SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) was applied in coastal area. For the severe droughts of 2001 spring and 2008 autumn, the index was evaluated by comparison with reported damage areas. suggested to combine The spatial concordance rate of WADI in 2001 and 2008 for estimation of the degree of drought severity was 50 % and 24 % compared to the actual recorded data respectively.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.61 no.1
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• pp.61-74
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• 2019

In this study, the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) of meteorological drought and SDI (Streamflow Drought Index) of hydrological drought for 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months duration were estimated to analyse the characteristics of drought using rainfall and dam inflow data for Chungju dam ($6,661.8km^2$) with 31 years (1986-2016) and Boryeong dam ($163.6km^2$) watershed with 19 years (1998-2016) respectively. Using the estimated SPI and SDI, the drought forecasting was conducted using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for the 5 durations. For 2016 drought, the SARIMA had a good results for 3 and 6 months. For the 3 months SARIMA forecasting of SPI and SDI, the correlation coefficient of SPI3, SPI6, SPI12, SDI1, and SDI6 at Chungju Dam showed 0.960, 0.990, 0.999, 0.868, and 0.846, respectively. Also, for same duration forecasting of SPI and SDI at Boryeong Dam, the correlation coefficient of SPI3, SPI6, SDI3, SDI6, and SDI12 showed 0.999, 0.994, 0.999, 0.880, and 0.992, respectively. The SARIMA model showed the possibility to provide the future short-term SPI meteorological drought and the resulting SDI hydrological drought.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.41 no.5
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• pp.477-484
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• 2021

Due to climate change, parts of Korea are experiencing large and small droughts every 2-3 years and extreme droughts every 7 years. Since most droughts occur mainly in areas where small water supply facilities in the tributaries or upstream are located, more research on technology for securing water in these areas is required. In this study, a drought evaluation using SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index), SDI (Streamflow Drought Index), and WBDI (Water Budget-based Drought Index) was performed to investigate hydrological drought in the Mulrocheon watershed of Chuncheon, a vulnerable area in terms of water supply. As a result of calculating hydrological drought indices SPEI and SDI, examining each duration, it was confirmed that the common drought in 2014 did not recover and continued until 2015. In the hydrological drought index evaluation result by WBDI, a very severe drought condition was observed in the spring of 2015 following 2014, and that drought was the most severe at -1.94 in November 2017. As a result of deriving a SDF (Severity-Duration-Frequency) curve through frequency analysis by duration using the drought index calculated on a monthly basis from 2003 to 2019 (17 years), most droughts in the Mulrocheon watershed were found to have a return period of less than 10 years, but droughts that occurred in 2014, 2015, and 2019 were found to cover more than 20 years, respectively.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.3
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• pp.193-200
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• 2020

Hydrological drought is directly associated with lack of available water in rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater. It is important to analyze hydrological drought for efficient water resource management because most of rainfall is concentrated in wet seasons and water supply is highly dependent on dams and reservoirs in South Korea. Generally, a threshold level method is useful for defining hydrological droughts. However, this method causes interdependent problems between drought events which result in skewed results in further statistical analysis. Therefore, it is necessary to determine a proper threshold level to represent regional drought characteristics. In this study, applying 50~99 percentiles of daily flow-duration curve, hydrological drought events were extracted, and independence tests were conducted for 12 watersheds. The Poisson independence test showed that 87~99 percentiles were available for most stations except for Yeoju and Pyeongtaek. The generalized Pareto independence test showed that 80~90 percentiles were the most common. Mean excess plot showed that 80 ~ 90 percentiles were the most common. Therefore, the common ranges of the three independent tests were determined for each station and proper threshold levels were recommended for large river basins; 70~76 percentiles for the Han River basin, 87~91 percentiles for the Nakdong River basin, 86~98 percentiles for the Geum River basin, and 85~87 percentiles for the Youngsan and Seomjin River basin.