• Title/Summary/Keyword: Human error probability

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Study on the prediction of the stopping probabilities in case of train fire in tunnel by Monte Carlo simulation method (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션에 의한 화재열차의 터널 내 정차확률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Ji-Oh;Kim, Jong-Yoon;Kim, Hyo-Gyu
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2018
  • The safety of tunnels is quantified by quantitative risk assessment when planning the disaster prevention facilities of railway tunnels, and it is decided whether they are appropriate. The purpose of this study is to estimate the probability of the train stopping in the tunnels at train fire, which has a significant effect on the results of quantitative risk assessment for tunnel fires. For this purpose, a model was developed to calculate the coasting distance of the train considering the coefficient of train running resistance. The probability of stopping in case of train fire in the tunnel is predicted by the Monte Carlo simulation method with the coasting distance and the emergency braking distance as parameters of the tunnel lengths and slopes, train initial driving speeds. The kinetic equations for predicting the coasting distance were analyzed by reflecting the coefficient train running resistance of KTX II. In the case of KTX II trains, the coasting distance is reduced as the slope increases in a tunnel with an upward slope, but it is possible to continue driving without stopping in a slope downward. The probability of the train stopping in the case of train fire in tunnel decreases as the train speed increases and the slope of the tunnel decreases. If human error is not taken into account, the probability that a high-speed train traveling at a speed of 250 km/h or above will stop in a tunnel due to a fire is 0% when the slope of the tunnel is 0.5% or less, and the probability of stopping increases rapidly as the tunnel slope increases and the tunnel length increases.

An Analysis on Incident Cases of Dynamic Positioning Vessels (Dynamic Positioning 선박들의 사고사례 분석)

  • Chae, Chong-Ju;Jung, Yun-Chul
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.149-156
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    • 2015
  • The Dynamic Positioning System consists of 7 elements which are namely Power system, Human machine interface, DP Computer, Position Reference System(PRS), Sensors, Thruster system and DP Operator. Incidents like loss of position(LOP) on DP vessel usually occur due to errors in these 7 elements. The purpose of this study is to find out safety operation method of DP vessel through qualitative and quantitative analyze of DP LOP incidents which are submitted to IMCA every year. The 612 DP LOP incidents submitted from 2001 to 2010 were analyzed to find out the main cause of the incidents and its rate among other causes. Consequently, the highest rate of incidents involving DP elements are PRS errors. DP computer, Power system, Human error and thruster system came next. The PRS has been analyzed and a flowchart was drawn through expert brainstorming. Also, the conditional probability has been analyzed through Bayesian Networks based on this flowchart. Consequentially, the main causes of drive off incidents were DGPS, microwave radar and HPR. Also, this study identified the main causes of DGPS errors through Bayesian Networks. These causes are signal blocked, electric components failure, relative mode error, signal weak or fail.

Multi-Level Segmentation of Infrared Images with Region of Interest Extraction

  • Yeom, Seokwon
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.246-253
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    • 2016
  • Infrared (IR) imaging has been researched for various applications such as surveillance. IR radiation has the capability to detect thermal characteristics of objects under low-light conditions. However, automatic segmentation for finding the object of interest would be challenging since the IR detector often provides the low spatial and contrast resolution image without color and texture information. Another hindrance is that the image can be degraded by noise and clutters. This paper proposes multi-level segmentation for extracting regions of interest (ROIs) and objects of interest (OOIs) in the IR scene. Each level of the multi-level segmentation is composed of a k-means clustering algorithm, an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, and a decision process. The k-means clustering initializes the parameters of the Gaussian mixture model (GMM), and the EM algorithm estimates those parameters iteratively. During the multi-level segmentation, the area extracted at one level becomes the input to the next level segmentation. Thus, the segmentation is consecutively performed narrowing the area to be processed. The foreground objects are individually extracted from the final ROI windows. In the experiments, the effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated using several IR images, in which human subjects are captured at a long distance. The average probability of error is shown to be lower than that obtained from other conventional methods such as Gonzalez, Otsu, k-means, and EM methods.

Jeju Jong Nang Channel Code I (제주 정낭 채널 Code I)

  • Lee, Moon Ho
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.49 no.12
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we look into a Jong Nang Channel which is the origin of digital communications and has been used in Jeju Island since AD 1234. It is one kind of communication ways which informs people of whether a house owner is in one's house or not using its own protocol. It is comprised of three timber and two stone pillars whose one side has three holes respectively. In this paper, we analyze the Jong-Nang Channel both in the light of logic and bit error probability. In addition, we compare it with a conventional binary erasure channel when some errors occur over them respectively. We also show that a capacity of NOR channel approaches Shannon limit.

Improvement of Pressurizer PROV System through Micro-Computer and PRA (마이크로 컴퓨터와 확률론적 리스크 평가를 통한 가압기 보호계통의 설계 개선)

  • Jong Ho Lee;Soon Heung Chang
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.302-316
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    • 1985
  • Small break LOCA caused by a stuck-open PORV is one of the important contributors to nuclear power plant risk. This paper deals with the design of a pressurizer surveillance system using microcomputer to prevent the malfunction of system and has assessed the effect of this improvement through Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) method. Micro-computer diagnoses the malfunction of system by a process checking method and performs automatically backup action related to each malfunction. Owing to this improvement, we can correctly diagnose “Spurious Opening”, “Fail to Reclose” and “Small break LOCA” which are difficult for operator to diagnose quickly and correctly and reduce the probability of a human error by an automatic backup action.

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RSSI based Proximity User Detection System using Exponential Moving Average (지수이동평균을 이용한 RSSI 기반 근거리 사용자 탐지 시스템)

  • Yun, Gi-Hun;Kim, Keon-Wook;Choi, Jae-Hun;Park, Soo-Jun
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.105-111
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    • 2010
  • This paper proposes the recursive algorithm for passive proximity detection system based on signal strength. The system is designed to be used in the smart medicine chest in order to provide location-based service for the senior personnel. Due to the system profile, single receiver and uni-direction communication are applied over the signal attenuation model for the determination of user existence within certain proximity. The performance of conventional methods is subjective to the sight between the transmitter and receiver unless the direction of target is known. To appreciate the temporal and spatial locality of human subjects, the authors present exponential moving average (EMA) to compensate the unexpected position error from the direction and/or environment. By using optimal parameter, the experiments with EMA algorithm demonstrates 32.26% (maximum 40.80%) reduction in average of the error probability with 50% of consecutive sight in time.

Improvement and Evaluation of Automatic Quality Check Algorithm for Particulate Matter (PM10) by Analysis of Instrument Status Code (부유분진(PM10) 측정기 상태 코드 분석을 통한 자동 품질검사 알고리즘 개선 및 평가)

  • Kim, Mi-Gyeong;Park, Young-San;Ryoo, Sang-Boom;Cho, Jeong Hoon
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.501-509
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    • 2019
  • Asian Dust is a meteorological phenomenon that sand particles are raised from the arid and semi-arid regions-Taklamakan Desert, Gobi Desert and Inner Mongolia in China-and transported by westerlies and deposited on the surface. Asian dust results in a negative effect on human health as well as environmental, social and economic aspects. For monitoring of Asian Dust, Korea Meteorological Administration operates 29 stations using a continuous ambient particulate monitor. Kim et al. (2016) developed an automatic quality check (AQC) algorithm for objective and systematic quality check of observed PM10 concentration and evaluated AQC with results of a manual quality check (MQC). The results showed the AQC algorithm could detect abnormal observations efficiently but it also presented a large number of false alarms which result from valid error check. To complement the deficiency of AQC and to develop an AQC system which can be applied in real-time, AQC has been modulated. Based on the analysis of instrument status codes, valid error check process was revised and 6 status codes were further considered as normal. Also, time continuity check and spike check were modified so that posterior data was not referred at inspection time. Two-year observed PM10 concentration data and corresponding MQC results were used to evaluate the modulated AQC compared to the original AQC algorithm. The results showed a false alarm ratio decreased from 0.44 to 0.09 and the accuracy and the probability of detection were conserved well in spite of the exclusion of posterior data at inspection time.

Study on the Estimation of Collision Risk of Ship in Ship Handling Simulator using Environmental Stress Model (시뮬레이터 기반 환경스트레스를 이용한 선박 충돌위험도 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Son Nam-Sun;Gong In-Young;Kim Sun-Young;Lee Chang-Min
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2004
  • Recently, many maritime accidents have been increased and the collisions due to human error are given a great deal of proportions out if them We develop the Real-time Collision Risk Monitoring System (CRMS) for the navigational officers to cope with the emergency situation promptly and thus to reduce the probability if casualty. In this study, the risk of collision is evaluated by two kinds if method. The first method is based on Fuzzy algorithm, which evaluates the risk of collision between traffic ships. The second method is based on Environmental Stress (ES) Model, where the total risk if collision is evaluated by the environmental stress felt by human. The developed real-time CRMS has been installed to the ship handling simulator system and its capabilities have been tested through simulator experiments.

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Study on the Estimation of Collision Risk of Ship in Ship Handling Simulator using Fuzzy Algorithm and Environmental Stress Model (시뮬레이터 기반 퍼지알고리즘과 환경스트레스모델을 이용한 선박 충돌위험도 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Son, Nom-Sun;Kim, Sun-Young;Gong, In-Young
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2009
  • Recently, many maritime accidents have been increased and the collisions due to human error are given a great deal of proportions out of them We develop the Real-time Collision Risk Monitoring System (CRMS) for the navigational officers to cope with the emergency situation promptly and thus to reduce the probability of casualty. In this study, the risk of collision and grounding is evaluated by two kinds of method. The first method is based on Fuzzy algorithm, which evaluates the risk of collision between traffic ships. The second method is based on Environmental Stress (ES) Model, where the total risk of collision and grounding is evaluated by the environmental stress felt by human. The developed real-time CRMS has been installed to the ship handling simulator system and its capabilities have been tested through simulator experiments.

A Study on Efficient Design of Surveillance RADAR Interface Control Unit in Naval Combat System

  • Dong-Kwan Kim;Dong-Han Jung;Won-Seok Jang;Young-San Kim;Hyo-Jo Lee
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.28 no.11
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    • pp.125-134
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, we propose an efficient surveillance RADAR(RAdio Detection And Ranging) interface control unit(ICU) design in the naval combat system. The proposed design applied a standardized architecture for modules that can be shared in ship combat system software. An error detection function for each link was implemented to increase the recognition speed of disconnection. Messages that used to be sent periodically for human-computer interaction(HCI) are now only transmitted when there is a change in the datagram. This can reduce the processing load of the console. The proposed design supplements the radar with the waterfall scope and time-limited splash recognition in relation to the hit check and zeroing of the shot when the radar processing ability is low due to the adoption of a low-cost commercial radar in the ship. Therefore, it is easy for the operator to determine whether the shot is hit or not, the probability of wrong recognition can be reduced, and the radar's resources can be obtained more effectively.