• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
• /
• v.12 no.6
• /
• pp.624-635
• /
• 2012

Construction projects, including housing, are carried out over long periods of time. According to changes to the construction period, the cost of input materials and wages also changes. Therefore appropriate management is important in order to minimize cost risks caused by fluctuations in prices. In Korea, housing units are usually sold in lots prior to construction completion. Therefore, careful management of input elements such as materials and equipment that are sensitive to price fluctuations is very important. This study deals with how the price fluctuation of materials, labor, and equipment influences the change of housing cost and seeks a way for cost management through identifying key resources sensitive to price fluctuation. As a result, a change to the housing cost index multiplies depending on cost changes of materials and labor together. Labor costs are a major factor on the housing cost index. In addition, certain types of materials and labor input to housing construction greatly influence price fluctuations. Thus, it is found that managing those main cost factors is the key for effective cost management.

• Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
• /
• v.12 no.1
• /
• pp.35-43
• /
• 2012

This study aimed to seek a method capable of hedging a rising risk of housing rent price by introducing derivatives with the target of Korean housing rent markets. The research model used in this thesis progressed a research by applying a futures contract method with the target of the rent price of major apartments in Gangnam and Gangbuk Regions of Seoul. As an analysis result, the rent price of all complexes has risen during its analysis period, so it could be confirmed that the CRB future index was also risen according to this. Finally, it was confirmed that the rising risk of the rent price can be hedged through a purchase position of futures. But, as the difference between rent price variation and CRB future index variation occurs, it appeared that 100% of hedge is difficult. However, it is judged that if considering that a method capable of hedging the rising risk of the existing rent price was nonexistent, the hedge trading effect utilizing the CRB future index on the rent price will be meaningful.

• Journal of Korea Planning Association
• /
• v.54 no.2
• /
• pp.76-83
• /
• 2019

This study aims to empirically identify the effect of spatial accessibility, based on travel, on housing prices in the Korean capital region. More specifically, it has two research purposes: First, investigating the effect of comprehensive spatial accessibility, based on road network and actual trips from origin to destination, on average apartment price (Korean Won per square meter) at the level of Eup, Myeon and Dong; Second, identifying better accessibility index between Hansen's and Kalogirou and Foley's ones. The former represents a road-based travel time decay function with destination trips, while the latter is a function with origin trips as well as destination ones. The study employs spatial economic models considering spatial auto-correlative relationship as an appropriate methodology with such control independent indicators as population density, road density, educational environment and distances from CBDs. Analysis results demonstrate that spatial accessibility, based on road network and actual trips from origin to destination, has a statistically significant impacts on housing price in the region. Our empirical evidence proves that the Hansen index is more appropriate than the other in estimating housing price impacts.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.44 no.4
• /
• pp.79-108
• /
• 2022

This study examines the impact of sentiment shock, which is defined as a stochastic innovation to the Housing Market Confidence Index (HMCI) that is orthogonal to past housing price changes, on aggregate housing price changes and housing price volatility. This paper documents empirical evidence that sentiment shock has a statistically significant relationship with Korea's aggregate housing price changes. Specifically, the key findings show that an increase in sentiment shock predicts a rise in the aggregate housing price and a drop in its volatility at the national level. For the Seoul Metropolitan Region (SMR), this study also suggests that sentiment shock is positively associated with one-month-ahead aggregate housing price changes, whereas an increase in sentiment volatility tends to increase housing price volatility as well. In addition, the out-of-sample forecasting exercises conducted here reveal that the prediction model endowed with sentiment shock and sentiment volatility outperforms other competing prediction models.

• Journal of the Korean housing association
• /
• v.18 no.3
• /
• pp.63-72
• /
• 2007

The purpose of this study is to identify the impact of the building, site, and region characteristic factors on the annual average price rising rate of apartment housing in Seoul. The data were consisted of 272 apartment units in Seoul. A survey included checking the drawing documents and interview with apartment maintenance staffs and real estate agencies from October 2006 to February 2007. Data were analyzed with descriptives, frequency, crosstabs, and linear regression by SPSS/PC for Window. The linear regression model was employed to evaluate the price rising rate in apartment housing. Following results were obtained. The price rising rate for pyeong ($3.3m^2$) of apartment housing was determinated by the district zone, the construction company's brand name, the building age, the building stories, the floor space index, the building-to-land ratio, the green space rate, and the distance from the downtown. Especially, the district zone was the most important factor that affected the price rising of apartment housing in Seoul. Therefore, the policy has to focus to solve the imbalance between autonomous districts with the collaborated tax.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
• /
• v.2 no.4
• /
• pp.32-41
• /
• 2012

In recent times, multi-centralization and decentralization as well as large Capital area and suburbanization in the spatial structure of capital area. With rapid growth, urbanization and industrialization are unsystematic, and growth inequality between regions caused negative effects such as discordant centralization and decentralization, fluctuating land value, and gap between living conditions. Accordingly, this study analyzed urban spatial indexes by the self-governed body in the capital area such as Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi province for the analysis of the regional inequality phenomenon. We examined the characteristics of temporal and spatial changes in urban spatial structure in the capital area by utilizing the distribution pattern and density of city indexes such as population, employment, etc, and then drew the commonality of those factors through factor analysis. We evaluated the drawn results through the city standard index by each city, conducted factor score analysis, and identified the interaction between each factor and Housing Purchase Price Composite Indices index, housing rent price index(Housing Jeonse Price Composite Indices), land price fluctuation rate, diffusion ratio of house, and financial independence.

• Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
• /
• v.12 no.1
• /
• pp.89-98
• /
• 2012

While the housing transaction price of Seoul tends to be stagnant or declining in line with the housing market recession since 2007, the jeonse price keeps continual increase. Such flow of jeonse price change has a serious influence on ordinary person's housing stability seriously. Therefore, it is very meaningful in terms of social policy to analyze the trend of recent jeonse price change. This study aims to have an empirical analysis of structural characteristics of the trend of recent jeonse price change. After the review of various previous studies, this study selected housing jeonse price index, non-sold house quantity, jeonse vs. transaction price rate, and housing construction performance as analytical variables, and employed monthly time series resources from January 2007 to April 2011. As a result, when the housing supply reduced, the potential quantity for jeonse market reduced that occurred unbalance of supply and demand in jeonse market. In turn, it caused the increase of jeonse price. And, in case of jeonse vs. transaction price rate change, the rate increased which means the increase of required rate of return of invested demand. As such, the increase of market risk degenerates the investment sentiment which caused the reduction of quantity for jeonse market as a submarket.

• Land and Housing Review
• /
• v.4 no.1
• /
• pp.43-54
• /
• 2013

This This paper investigates the variation of the factors to determinate housing price in Seoul metropolitan area after sub-prime financial crisis, in Korea, using a VAR model. The model includes housing price and housing rent (Jeonse) in Seoul metropolitan area from 1999 to 2011, and uses interest rate, real GDP, KOSPI, Producer Price Index and practices to impulse response and variance decomposition analysis to grasp the dynamic relation between a variable of macro economy and and a variable of housing price. Data is classified to 2 groups before and after the 3rd quater of 2008, when sub-prime crisis occurred; one is from the 1st quater of 1999 to the 3rd quater of 2008, and the other is from the 2nd quater of 1999 and the 4th quater of 2011. As a result, comparing before and after sub-prime crisis, housing price is more influenced by its own variation or Jeonse price's variation instead of interest rate and KOSPI. Both before and after sub-prime financial crisis, Jeonse price is also influenced by its own variation and housing price. While after sub-prime financial crisis, influences of Producer Price Index, KOSPI and interest rate were weakened, influence of real GDP is expanded. As housing price and housing rent are more influenced by real economy factors such as GDP, its own variation than before sub-prime financial crisis, the recent trend that the house prices is declined is difficult to be converted, considering domestic economic recession and uncertainty, continued by Europe financial crisis. In the future to activate the housing business, it ia necessary to promote purchasing power rather than relaxation of financial and supply regulation.

• Survey Research
• /
• v.9 no.3
• /
• pp.1-21
• /
• 2008

The housing market in Korea had mainly consisted of Maemae(purchasing market) and Chonsei(rental market). Since 1997 foreign exchange crisis, the rental housing market has experienced substantial changes in preferred rental contracts between Chonsei and monthly-rent. Even though monthly-rent has taken a substantial portion of housing rental contracts, not yet reliable monthly-rent index has been developed. Furthermore, it isn't obvious to define monthly-rent because there are many types of monthly rent structures from full-monthly-rent to monthly-rent-with-variable-deposit. This study is the basic research of developing a housing price index of monthly-rent in accordance with the existing price index of Maemae and Chonsei in Korea. This research has been carried out with the following contents: (1) Constructing the actually desirable concept of monthly-rent through examining monthly-rental market in Korea. (2) Selecting the reasonable method to investigate monthly-rental market, especially monthly-rent-with-variable -deposit. (3) Designing monthly-rental market samples and calculating the price index of monthly-rent based on 2005 Census.

• Land and Housing Review
• /
• v.11 no.2
• /
• pp.33-46
• /
• 2020

As the fastest growing office transaction volume in Korea, there's been a need for development of indicators to accurately diagnose the office capital market. The purpose of this paper is experimentally calculate to the office price index for effective benchmark indices in Seoul. The quantitative methodology used a Case-Shiller Repeat Sales Model (1991), based on actual multiple office transaction dataset with over minimum 1,653 ㎡ from Q3 1999 to 4Q 2019 in the case of 1,536 buildings within Seoul Metropolitan. In addition, the collected historical data and spatial statistical analysis tools were treated with the SAS 9.4 and ArcGIS 10.7 programs. The main empirical results of research are briefly summarized as follows; First, Seoul office price index was estimated to be 344.3 point (2001.1Q=100.0P) at the end of 2019, and has more than tripled over the past two decades. it means that the sales price of office per 3.3 ㎡ has consistently risen more than 12% every year since 2000, which is far above the indices for apartment housing index, announced by the MOLIT (2009). Second, between quarterly and annual office price index for the two-step estimation of the MIT Real Estate Research Center (MIT/CRE), T, L, AL variables have statistically significant coefficient (Beta) all of the mode l (p<0.01). Third, it was possible to produce a more stable office price index against the basic index by using the Moore-Penrose's pseoudo inverse technique at low transaction frequency. Fourth, as an lagging indicators, the office price index is closely related to key macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP(+), KOSPI(+), interest rates (5-year KTB, -). This facts indicate that long-term office investment tends to outperform other financial assets owing to high return and low risk pattern. In conclusion, these findings are practically meaningful to presenting an new office price index that increases accuracy and then attempting to preliminary applications for the case of Seoul. Moreover, it can provide sincerely useful benchmark about investing an office and predicting changes of the sales price among market participants (e.g. policy maker, investor, landlord, tenant, user) in the future.