• 가족자원경영과 정책
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.99-115
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• 2019

This study examined the insolvency likelihood of young debtors from the 2018 Household Financial and Welfare Survey. This study used the Household Default Risk Index (HDRI), which considers the ratio of total debt to total assets (DTA), and a total debt service ratio (DSR) to examine the insolvency level of debtors. The descriptive analyses showed no difference in frequency of households with a high probability of insolvency between those less than 35 years of age and those over 35 years of age. However, the median HDRI value for those less than 35 years of age was higher than those over 35 years of age. The multivariate analyses indicated that educational expenses for young Korean debtors was a factor that increased their probability of insolvency, while income was the only variable that decreased their insolvency likelihood.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.605-618
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• 2018

Risk management has been a crucial part of the daily operations of the financial industry over the past two decades. Value at Risk (VaR), a quantitative measure introduced by JP Morgan in 1995, is the most popular and simplest quantitative measure of risk. VaR has been widely applied to the risk evaluation over all types of financial activities, including portfolio management and asset allocation. This paper uses the implementations of multivariate GARCH models and copula methods to illustrate the performance of a one-day-ahead VaR prediction modeling process for high-dimensional portfolios. Many factors, such as the interaction among included assets, are included in the modeling process. Additionally, empirical data analyses and backtesting results are demonstrated through a rolling analysis, which help capture the instability of parameter estimates. We find that our way of modeling is relatively robust and flexible.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권8호
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• pp.497-502
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• 2021

This study aims to investigate the determinants of default risk of rural banks in East Java, Indonesia. The method used is descriptive verification and logistic regression analysis. The data used is secondary in the form of monthly annual financial reports of rural banks in East Java during the period 2009-2018. From the results, it was shown that net interest margin (NIM) as a proxy of market risk, non-performing loan (NPL) as a proxy of credit risk, operation efficiency as a proxy of operational risk and return on assets (ROA) as a proxy of profitability have a significant influence on default risk. Meanwhile, the loan to deposit (LDR) ratio as a proxy of liquidity risk has no significant influence on default risk. Banks need to implement risk management and meet the capital adequacy requirements of regulators so that they are resistant to risk, and also, compliant with bank governance to be able to produce high returns for rural banks have an impact on sustainability and its existence. The ability to identify setbacks in bank conditions and the ability to distinguish between healthy and problematic banks will enable to anticipate default banks.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.1-18
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• 1997

The purpose of this study is to investigate empirically the characteristics of financial structure by using 76 fisheries corporations in Korea, and to suggest implications of the empirical results for government's financial policy for fisheries corporations. For the empirical test, we choose the following factors as the explanatory variables of cross-sectional regression analysis:firm-size(SIZE), collateral value of assets(TFATA), business risk(BRISK), growth(GROWTH), effective tax(ET), profitability(PROFIT). Two different debt ratios are used as dependent variables. One is defined as the ratio of total debt to total assets and the other is as that of long-term debt to total asset in terms of book value. The sample consists of 76 fisheries firms and sample period is 14 years from 1982 till 1995. From the results of cross-sectional regression analysis, the adjusted R$^2$values were high, 16∼79% and the overall F values indicated to be statistically significant. The results of cross sectional regression analysis show that the characteristics of financial structure fur fisheries corporations are as follows ; (1) Firm-size and collateral value of assets are the major factors of financial structure for fisheries corporations. That is, the larger firm-size the higher is debt ratio. This means that financial institutions conventionally lend more collateral loans with fixed assets like land, building rather than management capacities or credits. (2) To be consistent with a pecking-order theory, the higher is profitability the lower is debt ratio in fisheries corporations. (3) Corporations with high effective tax rate have lower financial leverage. Although the empirical results are inconsistent with traditional static trade-off theory, we think it would be attributed to government's various tax shelterings for fisheries which are likely to reduce tax shield effect of interests.

• 정보처리학회논문지:컴퓨터 및 통신 시스템
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• 제8권7호
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• pp.177-180
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• 2019

대표적인 취약점 스코어링 시스템은 CVSS다. 하지만 CVSS는 취약점이 자산에 미치는 영향성 관점을 평가 하지 않아 사용되지 않거나 중요도가 낮은 자산에 대해서도 동일한 우선순위로 처리해야하기 때문에 대규모 시스템의 위험도가 높은 취약점의 경우 효과적이고 신속한 대응을 할 수 없다. 시스템 구성을 계층화 하고, 계층 간의 그리고 계층내의 중요도에 따른 가중을 평가하는 영향성 관점의 평가 시스템인 계층적 가중 기반의 취약점 영향성 평가 스코어링 시스템을 제안한다.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제11권10호
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• pp.55-62
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• 2013

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to suggest a risk factor that significantly explains foreign currency risk premia. In recent years, some studies have found that the performance of the simultaneous consumption risk model improves considerably when tested on foreign currency portfolios, which are constructed based on the international interest rates differentials. However, this paper focuses on the long-run consumption risk factor. In our empirical research, we found that the real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average, when the future American long-run consumption growth rate appears low. This makes the high interest rate currency portfolios have relatively high risk premia. Meanwhile, the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate on average, under the same conditions, which results in relatively low risk premia for these portfolios. Therefore, this long-run consumption risk factor might explain why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential, and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. Research design, data, methodology - In our explanation, we provide new evidence on the success of long-run consumption risks in currency risk premia by focusing on the long-run consumption risks borne by American representative investors. To uncover the hidden link between exchange rates and long-run consumption growth, we set the eight currency portfolios as our basic assets, which have been built based on the foreign interest rates of eighty countries. As these eight currency portfolios are rebalanced every year, the first group always contains the lowest interest rate currencies, and the last group contains the highest interest rate currencies. Against these basic eight currency portfolios, we estimate the long-run consumption risk model. We use recursive utility framework and the stochastic discount factor that depends on the present value of expected future consumption growth rates. We find that our model is optimized in the two-year period of constructing the durable consumption expectation factor. Our main results surprisingly surpass the performance of the existing benchmark simultaneous consumption model in terms of R², relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test. Results - The performance of our model is superior. R², relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test of our long-run durable consumption model are 90%, 93%, and 65.5%, respectively, while those of EZ-DCAPM are 87%, 113%, and 62.8%, respectively. Thus, we can speculate that the risk premia in foreign currency markets have been determined by the long-run consumption risk. Conclusions - The aggregate long-run consumption growth risk explains a large part of the average change in the real excess returns of foreign currency portfolios. The real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average when American long-run consumption growth rate is low, and the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate under the same conditions. Thus, the low interest rate currency portfolios allow investors to hedge against aggregate long-run consumption growth risk.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.87-93
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• 2017

Purpose - This paper investigates whether managerial overconfidence is associated with firm-specific crash risk. Overconfidence leads managers to overestimate the returns of their investment projects, and misperceive negative net present value projects as value creating. They even use voluntary disclosures to convey their optimistic beliefs about the firms' long-term prospects to the stock market. Thus, the overconfidence bias can lead to managerial bad news hoarding behavior. When bad news accumulates and crosses some tipping point, it will come out all at once, resulting in a stock price crash. Research design, data and methodology - 7,385 firm-years used for the main analysis are from the KIS Value database between 2006 and 2013. This database covers KOSPI-listed and KOSDAQ-listed firms in Korea. The proxy for overconfidence is based on excess investment in assets. A residual from the regression of total asset growth on sales growth run by industry-year is used as an independent variable. If a firm has at least one crash week during a year, it is referred to as a high crash risk firm. The dependant variable is a dummy variable that equals 1 if a firm is a high crash risk firm, and zero otherwise. After explaining the relationship between managerial overconfidence and crash risk, the total sample was divided into two sub-samples; chaebol firms and non-chaebol firms. The relation between how I overconfidence and crash risk varies with business group affiliation was investigated. Results - The results showed that managerial overconfidence is positively related to crash risk. Specifically, the coefficient of OVERC is significantly positive, supporting the prediction. The results are strong and robust in non-chaebol firms. Conclusions - The results show that firms with overconfident managers are likely to experience stock price crashes. This study is related to past literature that examines the impact of managerial overconfidence on the stock market. This study contributes to the literature by examining whether overconfidence can explain a firm's future crashes.

• 산업공학
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.421-431
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• 2003

Due to the increasing complexity of the information systems environment, modern information systems are facing more difficult and various security risks than ever, there by calling for a higher level of security safeguard. In this paper, an information technology security risk management model, which modified by adopting the concept of business processes, is applied to client/server distributed systems. The results demonstrate a high level of risk-detecting performance of the model, by detecting various kinds of security risks. In addition, a practical and efficient security control safeguard to cope with the identified security risks are suggested. Namely, using the proposed model, the risks on the assets in both of the I/O stage(on client side) and the request/processing stage(on server side), which can cause serious problems on business processes, are identified and the levels of the risks are analyzed. The analysis results show that maintenance of management and access control to application systems are critical in the I/O stage, while managerial security activities including training are critical in the request/processing stage.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권8호
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• pp.3241-3245
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• 2015

Purpose: To examine the effectiveness of mitomycin-C and chemo-hyperthermia in combination for patients with high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Materials and Methods: Between November 2011-September 2013, 43 patients with high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer undergoing adjuvant chemo-hyperthermia in two centers were evaluated retrospectively. Treatment consisted of 6 weekly sessions, followed by 6 sessions. Recurrence and progression rate, recurrence-free interval and side effects were examined. Analyzed factors included age, gender, smoking status, AB0 blood group, body mass index, T stage and grade, concominant CIS assets. The associations between predictors and recurrence were assessed using multivariate Cox proportional hazard analyses. Results: A total of 40 patients completed induction therapy. Thirteen (32.5%) were diagnosed with tumor recurrence. Median follow-up was 30 months (range 9-39). Median recurrence-free survival was 23 months (range 6-36). The Kaplan-Meier-estimated recurrence-free rates for the entire group at 12 and 24 months were 82% and 61%. There was no statistically significant difference between patient subgroups. Cox hazard analyses showed that an A blood type (OR=6.23, p=0.031) was an independent predictor of recurrence-free. Adverse effects were seen in 53% of patients and these were frequently grades 1 and 2. Conclusions: Intravesical therapy with combination of mitomycin-C and chemohyperthermia seems to be appropriate in high-risk patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer who cannot tolerate or have contraindications for standard BCG therapy.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.27-35
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• 2019

The paper examines the level of disclosure on Islamic banks' performance in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The data was collected through content analysis of annual reports and financial statements of all fully-fledged Islamic banks working in the UAE over the period 2009 to 2013. Return on Assets is used as a proxy for the performance of Islamic banks while disclosure index is used as a proxy for Islamic banks' disclosure. Also, predetermined variables are used in the study like Size, Deposits, Non-Performing Investments and Capital to Risk Weighted Assets Ratio. Two-Stage Least-Square regression method is used to check the interdependence relationships between disclosure and performance of Islamic banks in the UAE. The results show a significant relationship between performance and disclosure in the UAE Islamic banks. Our regression results show that Islamic banks with higher levels of disclosure lead to higher operating performance. Furthermore, the performance has a great impact on the level of disclosure which means Islamic banks with high performance measures will disclose more information for investors and other institutions in order to reduce the cost of equity and increase their values in the market. This study is considered as a battery for further studies in the relationship between disclosure and financial performance of Islamic banks at a global level.