• Title/Summary/Keyword: High Impact Weather

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Identifying the Optimal Number of Homogeneous Regions for Regional Frequency Analysis Using Self-Organizing Map (자기조직화지도를 활용한 동일강수지역 최적군집수 분석)

  • Kim, Hyun Uk;Sohn, Chul;Han, Sang-Ok
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2012
  • In this study, homogeneous regions for regional frequency analysis were identified using rainfall data from 61 observation points in Korea. The used data were gathered from 1980 to 2010. Self organizing map and K-means clustering based on Davies-Bouldin Index were used to make clusters showing similar rainfall patterns and to decide the optimum number of the homogeneous regions. The results from this analysis showed that the 61 observation points can be optimally grouped into 6 geographical clusters. Finally, the 61 observations points grouped into 6 clusters were mapped regionally using Thiessen polygon method.

Thermodynamic Characteristics Associated with Localized Torrential Rainfall Events in the Middle West Region of Korean Peninsula (한반도 중서부 국지성 집중호우와 관련된 열역학적 특성)

  • Jung, Sueng-Pil;Kwon, Tae-Yong;Han, Sang-Ok
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.457-470
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    • 2014
  • Thermodynamic conditions related with localized torrential rainfall in the middle west region of Korean peninsula are examined using radar rain rate and radiosonde observational data. Localized torrential rainfall events in this study are defined by three criteria base on 1) any one of Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) hourly rainfall exceeds $30mmhr^{-1}$ around Osan, 2) the rain (> $1mmhr^{-1}$) area estimated from radar reflectivity is less than $20,000km^2$, and 3) the rain (> $10mmhr^{-1}$) cell is detected clearly and duration is short than 24 hr. As a result, 13 cases were selected during the summer season of 10 years (2004-13). It was found that the duration, the maximum rain area, and the maximum volumetric rain rate of convective cells (> $30mmhr^{-1}$) are less than 9hr, smaller than $1,000km^2$, and $15,000{\sim}60,000m^3s^{-1}$ in these cases. And a majority of cases shows the following thermodynamic characteristics: 1) Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) > $800Jkg^{-1}$, 2) Convective Inhibition (CIN) < $40Jkg^{-1}$, 3) Total Precipitable Water (TPW) ${\approx}$ 55 mm, and 4) Storm Relative Helicity (SRH) < $120m^2s^{-2}$. These cases mostly occurred in the afternoon. These thermodynamic conditions indicated that these cases were caused by strong atmospheric instability, lifting to overcome CIN, and sufficient moisture. The localized torrential rainfall occurred with deep moisture convection result from the instability caused by convective heating.

Satellite Image Analysis of Low-Level Stratiform Cloud Related with the Heavy Snowfall Events in the Yeongdong Region (영동 대설과 관련된 낮은 층운형 구름의 위성관측)

  • Kwon, Tae-Yong;Park, Jun-Young;Choi, Byoung-Cheol;Han, Sang-Ok
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.577-589
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    • 2015
  • An unusual long-period and heavy snowfall occurred in the Yeongdong region from 6 to 14 February 2014. This event produced snowfall total of 194.8 cm and the recordbreaking 9-day snowfall duration in the 103-year local record at Gangneung. In this study, satellite-derived cloud-top brightness temperatures from the infrared channel in the atmospheric window ($10{\mu}m{\sim}11{\mu}m$) are examined to find out the characteristics of clouds related with this heavy snowfall event. The analysis results reveal that a majority of precipitation is related with the low-level stratiform clouds whose cloud-top brightness temperatures are distributed from -15 to $-20^{\circ}C$ and their standard deviations over the analysis domain (${\sim}1,000km^2$, 37 satellite pixels) are less than $2^{\circ}C$. It is also found that in the above temperature range precipitation intensity tends to increase with colder temperature. When the temperatures are warmer than $-15^{\circ}C$, there is no precipitation or light precipitation. Furthermore this relation is confirmed from the examination of some other heavy snowfall events and light precipitation events which are related with the low-level stratiform clouds. This precipitation-brightness temperature relation may be explained by the combined effect of ice crystal growth processes: the maximum in dendritic ice-crystal growth occurs at about $-15^{\circ}C$ and the activation of ice nuclei begins below temperatures from approximately -7 to $-16^{\circ}C$, depending on the composition of the ice nuclei.

Analysis of Heavy Rain Hazard Risk Based on Local Heavy Rain Characteristics and Hazard Impact (지역 호우특성과 재해영향을 고려한 호우재해위험도 분석)

  • Yoon, Jun-Seong;Koh, June-Hwan
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.37-51
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    • 2017
  • Despite the improvement in accuracy of heavy rain forecasting, socioeconomic costs due to heavy rain hazards continue to increase. This is due to a lack of understanding of the effects of weather. In this study, the risk of heavy rain hazard was analyzed using the concepts of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure, which are key concepts of impact forecast presented by WMO. The potential impacts were constructed by the exposure and vulnerability variables, and the hazard index was calculated by selecting three variables according to the criteria of heavy rain warning. Weights of the potential impact index were calculated by using PCA and hazard index was calculated by applying the same weight. Correlation analysis between the potential impact index and damages showed a high correlation and it was confirmed that the potential impact index appropriately reflects the actual damage pattern. The heavy rain hazard risk was estimated by using the risk matrix consisting of the heavy rain potential impact index and the hazard index. This study provides a basis for the impacts analysis study for weather warning with spatial/temporal variation and it can be used as a useful data to establish the local heavy rain hazard prevention measures.

Development of Impact-based Heat Health Warning System Based on Ensemble Forecasts of Perceived Temperature and its Evaluation using Heat-Related Patients in 2019 (인지온도 확률예보기반 폭염-건강영향예보 지원시스템 개발 및 2019년 온열질환자를 이용한 평가)

  • Kang, Misun;Belorid, Miloslav;Kim, Kyu Rang
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.195-207
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to introduce the structure of the impact-based heat health warning system on 165 counties in South Korea developed by the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences. This system was developed using the daily maximum perceived temperature (PTmax), which is a human physiology-based thermal comfort index, and the Local ENSemble prediction system for the probability forecasts. Also, A risk matrix proposed by the World Meteorological Organization was employed for the impact-based forecasts of this system. The threshold value of the risk matrix was separately set depending on regions. In this system, the risk level was issued as four levels (GREEN, YELLOW, ORANGE, RED) for first, second, and third forecast lead-day (LD1, LD2, and LD3). The daily risk level issued by the system was evaluated using emergency heat-related patients obtained at six cities, including Seoul, Incheon, Daejeon, Gwangju, Daegu, and Busan, for LD1 to LD3. The high-risks level occurred more consistently in the shorter lead time (LD3 → LD1) and the performance (rs) was increased from 0.42 (LD3) to 0.45 (LD1) in all cities. Especially, it showed good performance (rs = 0.51) in July and August, when heat stress is highest in South Korea. From an impact-based forecasting perspective, PTmax is one of the most suitable temperature indicators for issuing the health risk warnings by heat in South Korea.

The Effect of Radar Data Assimilation in Numerical Models on Precipitation Forecasting (수치모델에서 레이더 자료동화가 강수 예측에 미치는 영향)

  • Ji-Won Lee;Ki-Hong Min
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.457-475
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    • 2023
  • Accurately predicting localized heavy rainfall is challenging without high-resolution mesoscale cloud information in the numerical model's initial field, as precipitation intensity and amount vary significantly across regions. In the Korean Peninsula, the radar observation network covers the entire country, providing high-resolution data on hydrometeors which is suitable for data assimilation (DA). During the pre-processing stage, radar reflectivity is classified into hydrometeors (e.g., rain, snow, graupel) using the background temperature field. The mixing ratio of each hydrometeor is converted and inputted into a numerical model. Moreover, assimilating saturated water vapor mixing ratio and decomposing radar radial velocity into a three-dimensional wind vector improves the atmospheric dynamic field. This study presents radar DA experiments using a numerical prediction model to enhance the wind, water vapor, and hydrometeor mixing ratio information. The impact of radar DA on precipitation prediction is analyzed separately for each radar component. Assimilating radial velocity improves the dynamic field, while assimilating hydrometeor mixing ratio reduces the spin-up period in cloud microphysical processes, simulating initial precipitation growth. Assimilating water vapor mixing ratio further captures a moist atmospheric environment, maintaining continuous growth of hydrometeors, resulting in concentrated heavy rainfall. Overall, the radar DA experiment showed a 32.78% improvement in precipitation forecast accuracy compared to experiments without DA across four cases. Further research in related fields is necessary to improve predictions of mesoscale heavy rainfall in South Korea, mitigating its impact on human life and property.

Influence of Climate Change on the Lifecycle of Construction Projects at Gaza Strip

  • El-Sawalhi, Nabil;Mahdi, Mahdi
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2015
  • There is a high confidence based on scientific evidence that climate is changing over time. Now climate change is considered as one of the challenges facing the construction industry. As no project is risk free and climate change has a strong impact on the different phases of the construction project lifecycle. This research aimed at providing a platform of knowledge for the construction management practitioners about the impacts of climate change on the construction projects lifecycle, identify the most dangerous climate change factors on the construction project lifecycle, and identify the most affected phase by climate change factors through the construction projects lifecycle. The study depended on the opinions of civil engineers who have worked in the construction projects field among the reality of Gaza Strip. Questionnaire tool was adopted as the main research methodology in order to achieve the desired objectives. The questionnaire included 127 factors in order to obtain responses from 88 construction practitioners out of 98 representing 89.79% response rate about the influence of climate change on the generic lifecycle of construction projects. The results deduced that the most significant influence on the construction project lifecycle was related to the extreme weather events, rainfall change, and temperature change respectively. There was a general agreement between the respondents that the most affected phase by temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather events is the execution phase. The results also asserted with a high responses scale on the need to alternative procedures and clear strategies in order to face the climate change within construction industry.

Effects of Weather Factors on the Work Loss Days of the Elderly Workers (기상요소가 장년근로자의 근로손실일수에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Jaewook;Kim, Taewan;Lee, Chansik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.41-51
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    • 2019
  • With the aging of the population and the slowdown of the job market, elderly workers make up a large portion of the construction workforce. Also, due to the nature of the construction industry, where outdoor work is frequent, the weather has a more sensitive impact on elderly workers than on younger ones. The study aims to analyze the degree of weather risks exposed to elderly workers in the construction industry using the measure of work loss days. To that end, construction accidents that affected 28,514 elderly workers in seven cities from 2012 to 2016 (a total of 12,789 days) were analyzed to calculate work loss days per different weather factors. The results show that the elderly workers were seriously affected when the temperature was between $-12^{\circ}C$ and $-10^{\circ}C$, humidity between 55% and 60%, precipitation between 128mm and 181mm, and wind speed between 5.5m/s and 6.5m/s, with the highest work loss days. The combined effects between the weather factors were also analyzed to identify the conditiosn that leaded to high work loss days of elderly workers. This study contributes to effective safety management and pleasant working environment between weather factors and shedding light on the relationship between weather factors and work loss days of elderly workers.

A Study on High-resolution Numerical Simulation with Detailed Classification of Landuse and Anthropogenic Heat in Seoul Metropolitan area (수도권지역의 지표이용도 및 인공열 상세적용에 따른 고해상도 수치실험 연구)

  • Lee, Hankyung;Jee, Joon-Bum;Min, Jae-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.232-245
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    • 2017
  • In this study, the high-resolution numerical simulation results considering landuse characteristics are analyzed by using single layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM) in Weather Research Forecast (WRF). For this, the impact of urban parameters such as roughness length and anthropogenic heat in UCM is analyzed. These values are adjusted to Seoul metropolitan area in Korea. The results of assessment are verified against observation from surface and flux tower. Forecast system equipped with UCM shows an overall improvement in the simulations of meteorological parameters, especially temperature at 2 m, surface sensible and latent heat flux. Major contribution of UCM is appreciably found in urban area rather than non-urban. The non-urban area is indirectly affected. In simulated latent heat flux, applying UCM is possible to simulate the change similarly with observations on urban area. Anthropogenic heat employed in UCM shows the most realistic results in terms of temperature and surface heat flux, indicating thermodynamic treatment of UCM could enhance the skills of high resolution forecast model in urban and non-urban area.

Estimating Worst Case Flood and Inundation Damages under Climate Change

  • Kim, Sunmin;Tachikawa, Yasuto;Nakakita, Eiichi
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.189-189
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    • 2016
  • To generate information that contributes to climate change risk management, it is important to perform a precise assessment on the impact in diverse aspects. Considering this academic necessity, Japanese government launched continuous research project for the climate change impact assessment, and one of the representative project is Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (Sousei Program), Theme D; Precise Impact Assessment on Climate Change (FY2012 ~ FY2016). In this research program, quantitative impact assessments have been doing from a variety of perspectives including natural hazards, water resources, and ecosystems and biodiversity. Especially for the natural hazards aspect, a comprehensive impact assessment has been carried out with the worst-case scenario of typhoons, which cause the most serious weather-related damage in Japan, concerning the frequency and scale of the typhoons as well as accompanying disasters by heavy rainfall, strong winds, high tides, high waves, and landslides. In this presentation, a framework of comprehensive impact assessment with the worst-case scenario under the climate change condition is introduced based on a case study of Theme D in Sousei program There are approx. 25 typhoons annually and around 10 of those approach or make landfall in Japan. The number of typhoons may not change increase in the future, but it is known that a small alteration in the path of a typhoon can have an extremely large impact on the amount of rain and wind Japan receives, and as a result, cause immense damage. Specifically, it is important to assess the impact of a complex disaster including precipitation, strong winds, river overflows, and high tide inundation, simulating how different the damage of Isewan Typhoon (T5915) in 1959 would have been if the typhoon had taken a different path, or how powerful or how much damage it would cause if Isewan Typhoon occurs again in the future when the sea surface water temperature has risen due to climate changes (Pseudo global warming experiment). The research group also predict and assess how the frequency of "100-years return period" disasters and worst-case damage will change in the coming century. As a final goal in this research activity, the natural disaster impact assessment will extend not only Japan but also major rivers in Southeast Asia, with a special focus on floods and inundations.

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