• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제52권2호
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• pp.125-132
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• 2019

본 연구에서는 기존의 정량적인 강수량 정보를 제공하는 방식에서 벗어나 호우발생에 따른 생활환경의 변화에 끼치는 영향을 고려한 호우영향예보서비스의 필요성을 기반으로 호우위험영향도 평가가 가능한 호우재해 위험영향 매트릭스를 개발하고, 이를 통해 호우위험영향을 평가하는 방법을 제시하였다. 사당동 일대를 대상으로 실제 발생 호우사상(2011년 7월 27일)을 적용하였으며, 호우에 의한 침수로 영향을 받는 대상별(사람, 교통, 시설) 호우위험영향평가를 수행하였다. 이를 위해 1 km 격자기반으로 호우위험정도(Impact Level)를 산정하고, 침수심 결과를 조합하여 격자기반의 잠재호우위험영향(Potential Risk Impact)을 산정하였다. 여기에 강우발생가능성 Likelihood와의 조합을 통해 호우영향예보가 가능한 호우위험영향(Heavy Rainfall Risk Impact) 값을 산정하여 사당동 지역의 호우영향정도를 격자기반으로 4개의 등급으로 분석, 제시하였다.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.39-50
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• 2013

Occurrence of landslides has been increasing due to extreme weather events(e.g. heavy rainfall, torrential rains) by climate change. Pyeongchang, Korea had seriously been damaged by landslides caused by a typhoon, Ewiniar in 2006. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of landslides are increasing in summer due to torrential rain. Therefore, risk assessment and adaptation measure is urgently needed to build resilience. To support landslide adaptation measures, this study predicted landslides occurrence using MaxEnt model and suggested susceptibility map of landslides. Precipitation data of RCP 8.5 Climate change scenarios were used to analyze an impact of increase in rainfall in the future. In 2050 and 2090, the probability of landslides occurrence was predicted to increase. These were due to an increase in heavy rainfall and cumulative rainfall. As a result of analysis, factors that has major impact on landslide appeared to be climate factors, prediction accuracy of the model was very high(92%). In the future Pyeongchang will have serious rainfall compare to 2006 and more intense landslides area expected to increase. This study will help to establish adaptation measure against landslides due to heavy rainfall.

• 대기
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.107-121
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• 2024

In this study, we empirically analyzed the impact of physical risks due to climate change on the soundness and operational performance of the financial industry by combining economics and climatology. Particularly, unlike previous studies, we employed the Seasonal-Trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) method to extract trends of climate-related risk variables and economic-financial variables, conducting a two-stage empirical analysis. In the first stage estimation, we found that the delinquency rate and the Bank for International Settlement (BIS) ratio of commercial banks have significant negative effects on the damage caused by natural disasters, frequency of heavy rainfall, average temperature, and number of typhoons. On the other hand, for insurance companies, the damage from natural disasters, frequency of heavy rainfall, frequency of heavy snowfall, and annual average temperature have significant negative effects on return on assets (ROA) and the risk-based capital ratio (RBC). In the second stage estimation, based on the first stage results, we predicted the soundness and operational performance indicators of commercial banks and insurance companies until 2035. According to the forecast results, the delinquency rate of commercial banks is expected to increase steadily until 2035 under assumption that recent years' trend continues until 2035. It indicates that banks' managerial risk can be seriously worsened from climate change. Also the BIS ratio is expected to decrease which also indicates weakening safety buffer against climate risks over time. Additionally, the ROA of insurance companies is expected to decrease, followed by an increase in the RBC, and then a subsequent decrease.

• 대기
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.189-197
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• 2017

Progressing from weather forecasts and warnings to multi-hazard impact-based forecast and warning services represents a paradigm shift in service delivery. Urban flooding is a typical meteorological disaster. This study proposes support plan for urban flooding impact-based forecast by providing inundation risk matrix. To achieve this goal, we first configured storm sewer management model (SWMM) to analyze 1D pipe networks and then grid based inundation analysis model (GIAM) to analyze 2D inundation depth over the Gangnam drainage area with $7.4km^2$. The accuracy of the simulated inundation results for heavy rainfall in 2010 and 2011 are 0.61 and 0.57 in POD index, respectively. 20 inundation scenarios responding on rainfall scenarios with 10~200 mm interval are produced for 60 and 120 minutes of rainfall duration. When the inundation damage thresholds are defined as pre-occurrence stage, occurrence stage to $0.01km^2$, 0.01 to $0.1km^2$, and $0.1km^2$ or more in area with a depth of 0.5 m or more, rainfall thresholds responding on each inundation damage threshold results in: 0 to 20 mm, 20 to 50 mm, 50 to 80 mm, and 80 mm or more in the rainfall duration 60 minutes and 0 to 30 mm, 30 to 70 mm, 70 to 110 mm, and 110 mm or more in the rainfall duration 120 minutes. Rainfall thresholds as a trigger of urban inundation damage can be used to form an inundation risk matrix. It is expected to be used for urban flood impact forecasting.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제56권2호
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• pp.115-124
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• 2023

현재 극한기상의 발생빈도가 많아지면서 극한기상현상이 발생하였을 때 피해규모는 증가하고 있다. 이게 과거부터 강우량의 예측을 위해 많은 시간과 제원을 투자하여 예측정보를 제공하고 있다. 하지만 이러한 정보는 전문가가 아닌 일반인이 이해하기 어려우며 특히 극한기상현상이 발생하였을 때 어느정도의 규모의 피해가 발생하는지에 대한 정보는 포함되어 있지 않다. 이에 본 연구에서는 영국에서 최초로 제시한 Risk Matrix 작성을 통해 영향예보 기준을 활용하여 호우피해 등급기준 Risk Matrix를 제시하였다. 먼저 강우량 자료와 피해자료와의 상관 분석을 통해 Risk Matrix 작성에 필요한 변수를 선정하고 선행연구에서 제시된 PERCENTILE (25%, 75%, 90%, 95%)과 JNBC(Jenks Natural Breaks Classification)기법을 이용하여 강우량과 피해에 따른 등급기준을 산정하여 두 개의 등급기준을 합성하여 하나의 기준을 제시하였다. 분석 결과에 이재민 세대수 결과의 경우 가장 많은 피해가 발생하였던 영산강, 섬진강유역에서 JNBC 보다 PERCENTILE이 가장 많은 분포를 보였으며, 충청도 지역에서는 유사한 결과를 나타내었다. 강우량의 등급화 결과를 살펴보면 PERCENTILE보다 JNBC의 등급이 높게 산정되었으며, 특히 전라도 지역과 충청도 지역에서 가장 큰 등급을 나타내었다. 또한 피해지역 호우특보 현황과 비교해 보면 JNBC가 유사한 것을 확인할 수 있다. Risk Matrix 결과에서 가장 피해가 심했던 세종, 대전, 충남, 충북, 광주, 전남, 전북지역을 살펴보면 PERCENTILE보다 JNBC가 잘 모사한 것을 확인하였다.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제35권6호
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• pp.389-403
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• 2021

In this study, dual drainage system based runoff model was established for W-drainage area in G-si, and considering the various rainfall characteristics determined using Huff and Mononobe methods, the degree of flooding in the target area was analyzed and the risk was compared and analyzed through the risk matrix method. As a result, the Monobe method compared to the Huff method was analyzed to be suitable analysis for flooding of recent heavy rain, and the validity of the dynamic risk assessment considering the weight of the occurrence probability as the return period was verified through the risk matrix-based analysis. However, since the definition and estimating criteria of the flood risk matrix proposed in this study are based on the return period for extreme rainfall and the depth of flooding according to the results of applying the dual drainage model, there is a limitation in that it is difficult to consider the main factors which are direct impact on inland flooding such as city maintenance and life protection functions. In the future, if various factors affecting inland flood damage are reflected in addition to the amount of flood damage, the flood risk matrix concept proposed in this study can be used as basic information for preparation and prevention of inland flooding, as well as it is judged that it can be considered as a major evaluation item in the selection of the priority management area for sewage maintenance for countermeasures against inland flooding.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제55권9호
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• pp.657-668
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• 2022

하천 유량이 증가된 상태에서 집중호우의 발생은 유량과 강우량 모두 하천변 홍수피해에 영향을 미치게 된다. 또한, 하천변 사회·경제적 영향 수준에 따라 피해정도에 차이를 보이게 되며, 특히, 인구 및 자산 밀집도가 높은 경우 홍수대응에 필요한 충분한 예보 선행시간의 확보가 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 홍수대응에 필요한 시간적 여유의 확보를 통한 피해저감 효과를 증대하기 위해 앙상블 강우유출모델링을 활용한 홍수위험매트릭스를 구축하고, 그 적용성을 판단하고자 한다. 홍수위험매트릭스는 홍수피해 자료를 활용한 홍수피해 영향수준(X축)을 구성하고, 기상청 LENS 강우자료를 이용한 앙상블 강우유출모델링의 결과로 위험 홍수량의 발생 가능성을 예측(Y축)하여 확률예보에 기반한 예측이 가능하다. 이를 위해 과거 홍수피해 자료 및 정량적 홍수피해 평가방법을 이용한 홍수피해 영향수준 결정 방법을 제시하였다. 낙동강권역의 태화강유역 및 형산강유역의 홍수특보지점에 대하여 기존 홍수특보 자료 그리고 피해 발생 상황과 비교하였다. 그 결과 최대 3일전부터 홍수위험 발생시간 및 정도에 대한 예측이 가능한 것으로 분석되었다. 따라서 홍수대응에 필요한 예보 선행시간 확보를 통한 피해저감 활동에 도움이 되리라 판단된다.

• Spatial Information Research
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.147-158
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• 2007

강원도 지역은 매년 다양한 재해를 반복적으로 겪고 있으며 이러한 재해는 이 지역의 지속적인 발전에 장애요인이 되고 있다. 특히 2002년 태풍 루사에 의한 집중호우는 막대한 피해와 더불어 우리사회의 많은 교훈을 남겼다. 지역방재계획에는 강우사상에 따른 피난계획이 수립되어 있으나 실제 상황에서는 그 역할을 기대할 수 없었다. 또한 재해복구에 있어서도 원상복구에 그치고 있어 재해에 대한 잠재적 가능성을 그대로 남아 있는 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 유역의 개발이 수문 유출에 미치는 영향에 대해 종합적으로 고찰하고자 한다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제59권1호
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• pp.81-96
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• 2017

Along with climate change, it is reported that the scale and the frequency of extreme climate events (e.g. heavy rain, typhoon, etc.) show unstable tendency of increase. In case of Korea, also, the frequency of heavy rainfall shows increasing tendency, thus causing natural disaster damage in downtown and agricultural areas by rainfall that exceeds the design criteria of hydraulic structures. In order to minimize natural disaster damage, it is necessary to analyze how extreme precipitation event changes under climate change. Therefore a new design criteria based on non-stationarity frequency analysis is needed to consider a tendency of future extreme precipitation event and to prepare countermeasures to climate change. And a quantitative and objective characteristic analysis could be a key to preparing countermeasures to climate change impact. In this study, non-stationarity frequency analysis was performed and inundation risk indices developed by 4 inundation characteristics (e.g. inundation area, inundation depth, inundation duration, and inundation radius) were assessed. The study results showed that future probable rainfall could exceed the existing design criteria of hydraulic structures (rivers of state: 100yr-200yr, river banks: 50yr-100yr) reaching over 500yr frequency probable rainfall of the past. Inundation characteristics showed higher value in the future compared to the past, especially in sections with tributary stream inflow. Also, the inundation risk indices were estimated as 0.14 for the past period of 1973-2015, and 0.25, 0.29, 1.27 for the future period of 2016-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100, respectively. The study findings are expected to be used as a basis to analyze future inundation damage and to establish management solutions for rivers with inundation risks.

• 한국콘텐츠학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘텐츠학회 2016년도 춘계 종합학술대회 논문집
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• pp.241-242
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• 2016

Recent abnormal climate change induces localized heavy rainfall and extreme disasters such as debris flow near urban area. Thus many researches have been conducted to estimate and prevent, especially in focus of physical behavior of debris flow. Even though it is hardly to consider overall related parameters to estimate the extent and degree of directly or indirectly damages due to debris flow. Those analytic restraint would be caused by the diversity and complexity of regional topographic and hydrodynamic characteristics of debris flow inside. We have utilized the Bayesian method to compensate the uncertainty due to the complex characteristics of it after analyzing the numerical results from FLO-2D and field measurement data. Revised values by field measurements will enhance the numerical results and the missing parameters during numerical simulation will be supplemented with this methodology. As a final outcome in this study, the risk index of debris flow damage will be suggested to provide quantitative estimation in terms of hazard protection including the impact on buildings, especially in inner and outer of urban area.