• Title/Summary/Keyword: Hazard prediction

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Development of Prediction Technique of Landslide Hazard Area in Korea National Parks (국립공원의 산사태 발생 위험지역 예측기법의 개발)

  • Ma, Ho-Seop;Jeong, Won-Ok;Park, Jin-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.97 no.3
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    • pp.326-331
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    • 2008
  • This study was carried out to analyze the characteristics of each factors by using the quantification theory(I) for prediction of landslide hazard area. The results obtained from this study were summarized as follows; The stepwise regression analysis between landslide sediment ($m^3$ ) and environmental factors, factors affecting landslide sediment ($m^3$ ) were high in order of mixed (forest type), < 15 cm(soil depth), 801~1,200 m (altitude), $31{\sim}40^{\circ}$ (slope gradient), 46 cm < (soil depth), 1,201 m < (altitude) and s(aspect). According to the range, it was shown in order of soil depth (0.3784), altitude (0.2876), forest type (0.2409), slope gradient (0.1728) and aspect (0.1681). The prediction of landslide hazard area was estimated by score table of each category. The extent of prediction score was 0 to 1.2478, and middle score was 0.6239. Class I was over 1.1720, class II was 0.7543 to 0.1719, class III was 0.4989 to 0.7542 and class IV was below 0.4988.

Seismic hazard assessment for two cities in Eastern Iran

  • Farzampour, Alireza;Kamali-Asl, Arash
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.681-697
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    • 2015
  • Iran as one of the countries located on the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt has recently experienced a few number of catastrophic earthquakes. A well-known index of how buildings are affected by earthquakes is through assessment of probable Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and structures' response spectra. In this research, active faults around Kerman and Birjand, two major cities in eastern parts of Iran, have been considered. Seismic catalogues are gathered to categorize effects of surrounding faults on seismicity of the region. These catalogues were further refined with respect to time and space based on Knopoff-Gardner algorithm in order to increase statistical independency of events. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been estimated for each of cities regarding 50, 100, 200 and 500 years of structures' effective life-span. These results subsequently have been compared with Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA). It has been observed that DSHA not necessarily suggests upper bound of PSHA results. Furthermore, based on spectral Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) and spectral acceleration were provided for 2% and 10% levels of probability of exceedance. The results show that increasing source-to-site distance leads to spectral acceleration reduction regarding each fault. In addition, the spectral acceleration rate of variation would increase if the source-to-site distance decreases.

A Study on Pipelined Architecture with Branch Prediction and Two Paths Strategy (분기 예측과 이중 경로 전략을 결합한 파이프라인 구조에 관한 연구)

  • Ju, Yeong-Sang;Jo, Gyeong-San
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.181-190
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    • 1996
  • Pipelined architecture improves processor performance by overlapping the execution of several different instructions. The effect of control hazard stalls the pipeline and reduces processor performance. In order to reduce the effect of control hazard caused by branch, we proposes a new approach combining both branch prediction and two paths strategy. In addition, we verify the performance improvement in a proposed approach by utilizing system performance metric CPI rather than BEP.

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비례위험모형에서 비례성 가정에 대한 검정: 도산모형에의 응용

  • Nam Jae-U;Kim Dong-Seok;Lee Hoe-Gyeong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.615-618
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    • 2004
  • The previous quantitative bankruptcy prediction models cannot include time dimension. To overcome this limit, various dynamic models using survival analysis are developed recently. This paper emphasizes that the proportionality assumption must be adapted with caution when the Cox's proportional hazard model is used to explain bankruptcy. It is shown that a non-proportional hazard model including a change point model is a proper alternative, when the proportionality assumption is violated by the change of macroeconomic environment, such as the financial crisis in 1997.

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Empirical ground motion model for Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source

  • Vacareanu, Radu;Demetriu, Sorin;Lungu, Dan;Pavel, Florin;Arion, Cristian;Iancovici, Mihail;Aldea, Alexandru;Neagu, Cristian
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.141-161
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    • 2014
  • This article presents a new generation of empirical ground motion models for the prediction of response spectral accelerations in soil conditions, specifically developed for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source. The strong ground motion database from which the ground motion prediction model is derived consists of over 800 horizontal components of acceleration recorded from nine Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic events as well as from other seventeen intermediate-depth earthquakes produced in other seismically active regions in the world. Among the main features of the new ground motion model are the prediction of spectral ordinates values (besides the prediction of the peak ground acceleration), the extension of the magnitudes range applicability, the use of consistent metrics (epicentral distance) for this type of seismic source, the extension of the distance range applicability to 300 km, the partition of total standard deviation in intra- and inter-event standard deviations and the use of a national strong ground motion database more than two times larger than in the previous studies. The results suggest that this model is an improvement of the previous generation of ground motion prediction models and can be properly employed in the analysis of the seismic hazard of Romania.

Effects of Uncertain Spatial Data Representation on Multi-source Data Fusion: A Case Study for Landslide Hazard Mapping

  • Park No-Wook;Chi Kwang-Hoon;Kwon Byung-Doo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.393-404
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    • 2005
  • As multi-source spatial data fusion mainly deal with various types of spatial data which are specific representations of real world with unequal reliability and incomplete knowledge, proper data representation and uncertainty analysis become more important. In relation to this problem, this paper presents and applies an advanced data representation methodology for different types of spatial data such as categorical and continuous data. To account for the uncertainties of both categorical data and continuous data, fuzzy boundary representation and smoothed kernel density estimation within a fuzzy logic framework are adopted, respectively. To investigate the effects of those data representation on final fusion results, a case study for landslide hazard mapping was carried out on multi-source spatial data sets from Jangheung, Korea. The case study results obtained from the proposed schemes were compared with the results obtained by traditional crisp boundary representation and categorized continuous data representation methods. From the case study results, the proposed scheme showed improved prediction rates than traditional methods and different representation setting resulted in the variation of prediction rates.