• Title/Summary/Keyword: Hazard prediction

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Deformability of RC Beam-Column Assembles (철근콘크리트 보-기둥 접합부의 연성능력)

  • Lee, Jung-Yoon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.193-196
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    • 2008
  • This paper proposes a method to predict the ductility capacity of reinforced concrete beam-column joints failing in shear after the formations of plastic hinges at both ends of the adjacent beams. The current design code divides joints into two categories: Type 1 for structures in non seismically hazard area and Type 2 in seismically hazard area. While there are many researches related to joint shear strength in Type 1, those in regard to joint ductility capacity of Type 2 are scarce. This paper classified the ductility capacity of beam-column joints into column, joint panel, and beam deformability. Since a brittle failure such as shear or bond failure in the columns must be avoided, column deformability was calculated by elastic analysis. The plastic hinges of the adjacent beams affect joint deformability. Therefore, the prediction of joint deformability was calculated with consideration to the degradation of the diagonally compressed concrete due to the strain penetration.

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Vibration Serviceability Evaluation for Pedestrian of Concrete Cable-stayed Bridge by Experimental Method (실험적 방법에 의한 콘크리트 사장교의 보행자 중심 진동사용성 평가)

  • Kang, Sung-Hoo;Choi, Bong-Hyun;Park, Sun-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2011
  • In this study, the vibration serviceability of pedestrian by travelling vehicles on the cable-stayed bridge with concrete tower was studied. Experiment variables were considered travelling speed of vehicles, pavement state of asphalt on the deck and weight of vehicles, preferentially. Especially, pavement grade states were considered by A and C grades by BMS (Bridge Management System) standard. The incremental ratio extent of vibration acceleration responses, asphalt pavement grade C over A, was construed to 1.23~1.43. Only, these results are valid within extent of the Scaled-Weight 228.0~1161.9 km/h kN. The vibration equations for acceleration responses prediction of bridge deck were proposed into three types, reliability 50%, 90%, 95% respectively. These equations can consider asphalt pavement grade, and the vehicle's weight and travelling velocity, which are the source of vibration, are combined into the term called, 'Scaled Weight'.

Prediction for the Lifetime Effective Dose and Radon Exposure Risk by using Dose Conversion Convention: Base on the Indoor Radon Concentration of Lecture Room in a University (선량 환산 관례를 이용한 생애유효선량 및 라돈피폭 위험도 예측: 대학 강의실 라돈농도 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jae-Seung;Kweon, Dae Cheol
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.243-249
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    • 2018
  • The indoor radon concentration was measured in the lecture room of the university and the radon concentration was converted to the amount related to the radon exposure using the dose conversion convention and compared with the reference levels for the radon concentration control. The effect of indoor radon inhalation was evaluated by estimating the life effective dose and the risk of exposure. To measure the radon concentration, measurements were made with a radon meter and a dedicated analysis Capture Ver. 5.5 program in a university lecture room from January to February 2018. The radon concentration measurement was carried out for 5 consecutive hours for 24 hours after keeping the airtight condition for 12 hours before the measurement. Radon exposure risk was calculated using the radon dose and dose conversion factor. Indoor radon concentration, radon exposure risk, and annual effective dose were found within the 95% confidence interval as the minimum and maximum boundary ranges. The radon concentration in the lecture room was $43.1-79.1Bq/m^3$, and the maximum boundary range within the 95% confidence interval was $77.7Bq/m^3$. The annual effective dose was estimated to be 0.20-0.36 mSv/y (mean 0.28 mSv/y). The life-time effective dose was estimated to be 0.66-1.18 mSv (mean $0.93{\pm}0.08mSv$). Life effective doses were estimated to be 0.88-0.99 mSv and radon exposure risk was estimated to be 12.4 out of 10.9 per 100,000. Radon concentration was measured, dose effective dose was evaluated using dose conversion convention, and degree of health hazard by indoor radon exposure was evaluated by predicting radon exposure risk using nominal hazard coefficient. It was concluded that indoor living environment could be applied to other specific exposure situations.

Status of Government Funded Projects for "Laboratory Safety" ('연구실 안전' 관련 정부연구개발사업 동향 분석)

  • Suh, Jiyoung;Kim, Hyemin;Bae, Sunyoung;Park, Jeongim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.396-416
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    • 2021
  • Objectives: This study was conducted to analyze the trends of government R&D (R&D) projects related to laboratory safety over the past 20 years. Methods: We collected publications from various databases(DBs) with words such as laboratory(ies), lab(s), researcher(s), laboratory worker(s), safety, environment, hazard(s), risk(s), and so on. Selected publications were analyzed by the research funds and the number of projects according to the investment subject and research characteristics. Results: About 93% of the total R&D budget went to government policy projects, not scientific research. Second, from the perspective of 'safety management activities', most of the research is related to management and inspection at the organizational level. Issues that need to be discussed at the national level like policy governance are not included. Third, focusing on the 'safety management cycle', there were few studies related to 'prediction' or 'post-response'. Fourth, when an analysis framework combining the perspectives of 'safety management activities' and 'safety management cycle' is applied, most of the budget is spent on infrastructure such as digital management systems, whereas basic knowledge for prevention and production of evidence was very few. Conclusions: In order to prevent policy planning without policy evaluation, implementation without strategy, and evaluation without evidence, it is necessary to expand investment in empirical research on risks, research on the effectiveness of current application methods, and research on theory development. The government budget for laboratory safety-related projects should be managed separately from the R&D budget for scientific research. Although less than 5% of the budget allocated to scientific research is the total budget, an optical illusion occurs because both the project budget and the scientific research budget are counted as R&D budgets.

Volumetric CT Texture Analysis of Intrahepatic Mass-Forming Cholangiocarcinoma for the Prediction of Postoperative Outcomes: Fully Automatic Tumor Segmentation Versus Semi-Automatic Segmentation

  • Sungeun Park;Jeong Min Lee;Junghoan Park;Jihyuk Lee;Jae Seok Bae;Jae Hyun Kim;Ijin Joo
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.22 no.11
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    • pp.1797-1808
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    • 2021
  • Objective: To determine whether volumetric CT texture analysis (CTTA) using fully automatic tumor segmentation can help predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients with intrahepatic mass-forming cholangiocarcinomas (IMCCs) after surgical resection. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study analyzed the preoperative CT scans of 89 patients with IMCCs (64 male; 25 female; mean age, 62.1 years; range, 38-78 years) who underwent surgical resection between January 2005 and December 2016. Volumetric CTTA of IMCCs was performed in late arterial phase images using both fully automatic and semi-automatic liver tumor segmentation techniques. The time spent on segmentation and texture analysis was compared, and the first-order and second-order texture parameters and shape features were extracted. The reliability of CTTA parameters between the techniques was evaluated using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). Intra- and interobserver reproducibility of volumetric CTTAs were also obtained using ICCs. Cox proportional hazard regression were used to predict RFS using CTTA parameters and clinicopathological parameters. Results: The time spent on fully automatic tumor segmentation and CTTA was significantly shorter than that for semi-automatic segmentation: mean ± standard deviation of 1 minutes 37 seconds ± 50 seconds vs. 10 minutes 48 seconds ± 13 minutes 44 seconds (p < 0.001). ICCs of the texture features between the two techniques ranged from 0.215 to 0.980. ICCs for the intraobserver and interobserver reproducibility using fully automatic segmentation were 0.601-0.997 and 0.177-0.984, respectively. Multivariable analysis identified lower first-order mean (hazard ratio [HR], 0.982; p = 0.010), larger pathologic tumor size (HR, 1.171; p < 0.001), and positive lymph node involvement (HR, 2.193; p = 0.014) as significant parameters for shorter RFS using fully automatic segmentation. Conclusion: Volumetric CTTA parameters obtained using fully automatic segmentation could be utilized as prognostic markers in patients with IMCC, with comparable reproducibility in significantly less time compared with semi-automatic segmentation.

Development of a Prediction Technique for Debris Flow Susceptibility in the Seoraksan National Park, Korea (설악산 국립공원 지역 토석류 발생가능성 평가 기법의 개발)

  • Lee, Sung-Jae;Kim, Gil Won;Jeong, Won-Ok;Kang, Won-Seok;Lee, Eun-Jai
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.110 no.1
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    • pp.64-71
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    • 2021
  • Recently, climate change has gradually accelerated the occurrence of landslides. Among the various effects caused by landslides,debris flow is recognized as particularly threatening because of its high speed and propagating distance. In this study, the impacts of various factors were analyzed using quantification theory(I) for the prediction of debris flow hazard soil volume in Seoraksan National Park, Korea. According to the range using the stepwise regression analysis, the order of impact factors was as follows: vertical slope (0.9676), cross slope (0.6876), altitude (0.2356), slope gradient (0.1590), and aspect (0.1364). The extent of the normalized score using the five-factor categories was 0 to 2.1864, with the median score being 1.0932. The prediction criteria for debris flow occurrence based on the normalized score were divided into four grades: class I, >1.6399; class II, 1.0932-1.6398; class III, 0.5466-1.0931; and class IV, <0.5465. Predictions of debris flow occurrence appeared to be relatively accurate (86.3%) for classes I and II. Therefore, the prediction criteria for debris flow will be useful for judging the dangerousness of slopes.

Calculation of Water Level Variations and Extreme Waves in Busan Harbor due to Storm Surges (고조로 인한 부산항 해수면 변화 및 극한파랑의 산정)

  • Whang Ho-Dong;Lee Joong-Woo;Kwon So-Hyun;Yang Sang-Yong;Gum Dong-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.227-234
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    • 2004
  • Recently huge typhoons had attacked to the coastal waters in Korea and caused disastrous casualties in those area. There are some discussions on correction to the design parameters for the coastal structures. Wave transformation computations with the extreme waves are of value in planning and constructing engineering works, especially in coastal regions. Prediction of typhoon surge elevations is based primarily on the use of a numerical model in this study, since it is difficult to study these events in real time or with use of physical models. Wave prediction with a two dimensional numerical model for a site with complicated coastal lines and structures at the period of typhoon 'Maemi' is discussed. In order to input parameters for the extreme wave conditions, we analyzed the observed and predicted typhoon data. Finally we applied the model discussed above to the storm surge and extreme wave problem at Busan Harbor, the southeast coast of Korea. Effects of water level variation and transformation of the extreme waves in relation with the flooding in coastal waters interested are analyzed. We then mack an attempt to presen a basic hazard map for the corresponding site.

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Interactions between Soil Moisture and Weather Prediction in Rainfall-Runoff Application : Korea Land Data Assimilation System(KLDAS) (수리 모형을 이용한 Korea Land Data Assimilation System (KLDAS) 자료의 수문자료에 대한 영향력 분석)

  • Jung, Yong;Choi, Minha
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.172-172
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    • 2011
  • The interaction between land surface and atmosphere is essentially affected by hydrometeorological variables including soil moisture. Accurate estimation of soil moisture at spatial and temporal scales is crucial to better understand its roles to the weather systems. The KLDAS(Korea Land Data Assimilation System) is a regional, specifically Korea peninsula land surface information systems. As other prior land data assimilation systems, this can provide initial soil field information which can be used in atmospheric simulations. For this study, as an enabling high-resolution tool, weather research and forecasting(WRF-ARW) model is applied to produce precipitation data using GFS(Global Forecast System) with GFS embedded and KLDAS soil moisture information as initialization data. WRF-ARW generates precipitation data for a specific region using different parameters in physics options. The produced precipitation data will be employed for simulations of Hydrological Models such as HEC(Hydrologic Engineering Center) - HMS(Hydrologic Modeling System) as predefined input data for selected regional water responses. The purpose of this study is to show the impact of a hydrometeorological variable such as soil moisture in KLDAS on hydrological consequences in Korea peninsula. The study region, Chongmi River Basin, is located in the center of Korea Peninsular. This has 60.8Km river length and 17.01% slope. This region mostly consists of farming field however the chosen study area placed in mountainous area. The length of river basin perimeter is 185Km and the average width of river is 9.53 meter with 676 meter highest elevation in this region. We have four different observation locations : Sulsung, Taepyung, Samjook, and Sangkeug observatoriesn, This watershed is selected as a tentative research location and continuously studied for getting hydrological effects from land surface information. Simulations for a real regional storm case(June 17~ June 25, 2006) are executed. WRF-ARW for this case study used WSM6 as a micro physics, Kain-Fritcsch Scheme for cumulus scheme, and YSU scheme for planetary boundary layer. The results of WRF simulations generate excellent precipitation data in terms of peak precipitation and date, and the pattern of daily precipitation for four locations. For Sankeug observatory, WRF overestimated precipitation approximately 100 mm/day on July 17, 2006. Taepyung and Samjook display that WRF produced either with KLDAS or with GFS embedded initial soil moisture data higher precipitation amounts compared to observation. Results and discussions in detail on accuracy of prediction using formerly mentioned manners are going to be presented in 2011 Annual Conference of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation.

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Prediction of Coastal Inundation due to Tsunamis : Pohang New Port (지진해일에 의한 해수범람 예측 : 포항신항)

  • Sim, Ju-Yeol;Ha, Tae-Min;Cho, Yong-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.135-143
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    • 2008
  • During the last decades several devastating tsunamis have been occurred. Recently, there have been increasingly concerned about tsunamis around the Korean Peninsula since the 2004 Sumatra Tsunami occurred on December 26, 2004. In general, the Korean Peninsula is not safe against potential tsunami attacks. The 1983 Central East Sea Tsunami and the 1993 Hokkaido Tsunami caused considerable damage to the Eastern Part of the Peninsula. Thus, a prediction of damage due to tsunamis must be required at the Eastern Part of the Peninsula. In this study, numerical simulation of tsunamis at Pohang New Port, one of the most important ports in the Eastern Part of Korea, is conducted for three different tsunami events. Numerical simulation is focused on inundation on the port and run-down around an intake structure which supplies cooling water to the porthinterland. The computed results show that Pohang New Port is damaged by the most dangerous tsunami which can be generated in the East Sea. Thus, it is required to set up a counter-measure against tsunami attacks at Pohang New Port.

Seismic Zonation on Site Responses in Daejeon by Building Geotechnical Information System Based on Spatial GIS Framework (공간 GIS 기반의 지반 정보 시스템 구축을 통한 대전 지역의 부지 응답에 따른 지진재해 구역화)

  • Sun, Chang-Guk
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.5-19
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    • 2009
  • Most of earthquake-induced geotechnical hazards have been caused by the site effects relating to the amplification of ground motion, which is strongly influenced by the local geologic conditions such as soil thickness or bedrock depth and soil stiffness. In this study, an integrated GIS-based information system for geotechnical data, called geotechnical information system (GTIS), was constructed to establish a regional counterplan against earthquake-induced hazards at an urban area of Daejeon, which is represented as a hub of research and development in Korea. To build the GTIS for the area concerned, pre-existing geotechnical data collections were performed across the extended area including the study area and site visits were additionally carried out to acquire surface geo-knowledge data. For practical application of the GTIS used to estimate the site effects at the area concerned, seismic zoning map of the site period was created and presented as regional synthetic strategy for earthquake-induced hazards prediction. In addition, seismic zonation for site classification according to the spatial distribution of the site period was also performed to determine the site amplification coefficients for seismic design and seismic performance evaluation at any site in the study area. Based on this case study on seismic zonations in Daejeon, it was verified that the GIS-based GTIS was very useful for the regional prediction of seismic hazards and also the decision support for seismic hazard mitigation.