• 제목/요약/키워드: Hazard prediction

검색결과 292건 처리시간 0.025초

The Prediction of Lower Flash Points by Optimization Method

  • Ha, Dong-Myeong;Lee, Sung-Jin
    • International Journal of Safety
    • /
    • 제8권2호
    • /
    • pp.15-19
    • /
    • 2009
  • The flash point is the most widely used flammability property for the evaluation of the flammability hazard of combustible liquid mixtures. In this paper, the reported flash points for the the binary systems, ethylbenzene+n-butanol and ethylbenzene+n-hexanol were correlated by the optimization method. The optimization method based on the van Laar and Wilson equations were compared with the Raoult's law. The calculated values based on the optimization method were found to be better than those based on the Raoult's law.

2차원 날개의 서리얼음 형상 예측 (PREDICTION OF RIME ICE ACCRETION SHAPE ON 2D AIRFOIL)

  • 백선우;이관중;오세종
    • 한국전산유체공학회지
    • /
    • 제14권1호
    • /
    • pp.45-52
    • /
    • 2009
  • Ice accretion may occur when the sold surface passes through the clouds containing supercooled water droplets. In the case of aircraft, it can result in serious performance degradation and safety hazard. In this study, numerical analysis code has been developed to predict the rime ice shapes on a 2-D airfoil and the computation results are validated against experimental data of NASA and other computation results of well-known ice prediction code, LEWICE. In addition, the effects of various numerical parameters on the ice shape have been systematically investigated.

GIS 공간통계를 이용한 도심화재예측지도 제작기법 탐색 (The Urban Fire Prediction Mapping Technique based on GIS Spatial Statistics)

  • 김진택;엄정섭
    • 한국화재소방학회논문지
    • /
    • 제21권2호
    • /
    • pp.14-23
    • /
    • 2007
  • GIS 및 공간통계기법을 이용하여 도심내의 화재현상에 대한 분석을 실시하고 예측지도의 제작기법을 개발하였다. 즉 지난 5년간($2001{\sim}2005$)의 화재 데이터와 대구지역 인문환경요소와의 상관관계를 규명하였고, 화재의 불확정성의 특성을 방안분석 및 포아송 확률분포로 해석하여 화재위험예측지도를 시범 제작하였다.

The Measurement and Prediction of Minimum Flash Point Behaviour for Flammable Binarry Solution Using Pensky-Martens Closed Cup Tester

  • Ha, Dong-Myeong;Choi, Yong-Chan;Lee, Sung-Jin
    • International Journal of Safety
    • /
    • 제9권2호
    • /
    • pp.6-10
    • /
    • 2010
  • The flash point of liquid solution is one of the most important flammability properties that used in hazard and risk assessments. Minimum flash point behaviour (MFPB) is showed when the flash point of a liquid mixture is below the flash points of the individual components. In this paper, the lower flash points for the flammable binary system, n-decane+n-octanol, were measured by Pensky-Martens closed cup tester. This binary mixture exhibited MFPB. The measured flash points were compared with the values calculated by the Raoult's law and the optimization method using van Laar and UNIQUAC equations. The optimization method were found to be better than those based on the Raoult's law, and successfully estimated MFPB. The opimization method based on the van Laar equation described the experimentally-derived data more effectively than was the case when the prediction model was based upon the UNIQUAC.

Hazard prediction of coal and gas outburst based on fisher discriminant analysis

  • Chen, Liang;Wang, Enyuan;Feng, Junjun;Wang, Xiaoran;Li, Xuelong
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
    • /
    • 제13권5호
    • /
    • pp.861-879
    • /
    • 2017
  • Coal and gas outburst is a serious dynamic disaster that occurs during coal mining and threatens the lives of coal miners. Currently, coal and gas outburst is commonly predicted using single indicator and its critical value. However, single indicator is unable to fully reflect all of the factors impacting outburst risk and has poor prediction accuracy. Therefore, a more accurate prediction method is necessary. In this work, we first analyzed on-site impacting factors and precursors of coal and gas outburst; then, we constructed a Fisher discriminant analysis (FDA) index system using the gas adsorption index of drilling cutting ${\Delta}h_2$, the drilling cutting weight S, the initial velocity of gas emission from borehole q, the thickness of soft coal h, and the maximum ratio of post-blasting gas emission peak to pre-blasting gas emission $B_{max}$; finally, we studied an FDA-based multiple indicators discriminant model of coal and gas outburst, and applied the discriminant model to predict coal and gas outburst. The results showed that the discriminant model has 100% prediction accuracy, even when some conventional indexes are lower than the warning criteria. The FDA method has a broad application prospects in coal and gas outburst prediction.

Ground-motion prediction equation for South Korea based on recent earthquake records

  • Jeong, Ki-Hyun;Lee, Han-Seon
    • Earthquakes and Structures
    • /
    • 제15권1호
    • /
    • pp.29-44
    • /
    • 2018
  • A ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for the Korean Peninsula, especially for South Korea, is developed based on synthetic ground motions generated using a ground motion model derived from instrumental records from 11 recent earthquakes of $M_L$>4.5 in Korea, including the Gyeongju earthquake of Sept. 12. 2016 ($M_L$5.8). PSAs of one standard deviation from the developed GMPE with $M_W$ 6.5 at hypocentral distances of 15 km and 25 km are compared to the design spectrum (soil condition, $S_B$) of the Korean Building Code 2016 (KBC), indicating that: (1) PSAs at short periods around 0.2 sec can be 1.5 times larger than the corresponding KBC PSA, and (2) SD's at periods longer than 2 sec do not exceed 8 cm. Although this comparison of the design spectrum with those of the GMPE developed herein intends to identify the characteristics of the scenario earthquake in a lower-seismicity region such as South Korea, it does not mean that the current design spectrum should be modified accordingly. To develop a design spectrum compatible with the Korean Peninsula, more systematic research using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is necessary in the future.

생존분석을 이용한 디스플레이 FAB의 반송시간 예측모형 (Prediction Model on Delivery Time in Display FAB Using Survival Analysis)

  • 한바울;백준걸
    • 대한산업공학회지
    • /
    • 제40권3호
    • /
    • pp.283-290
    • /
    • 2014
  • In the flat panel display industry, to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production, the scheduler and dispatching systems are major production management systems which control the order of facility production and the distribution of WIP (Work In Process). Especially the delivery time is a key factor of the dispatching system for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors of the delivery time and to build the delivery time forecasting model. To select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the mean square error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the statistics prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing the delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

농업정보기술을 위한 ILP 프로세서에서 새로운 복구 메커니즘 적용 분기예측기 (A Branch Predictor with New Recovery Mechanism in ILP Processors for Agriculture Information Technology)

  • 고광현;조영일
    • Agribusiness and Information Management
    • /
    • 제1권2호
    • /
    • pp.43-60
    • /
    • 2009
  • To improve the performance of wide-issue superscalar processors, it is essential to increase the width of instruction fetch and the issue rate. Removal of control hazard has been put forward as a significant new source of instruction-level parallelism for superscalar processors and the conditional branch prediction is an important technique for improving processor performance. Branch mispredictions, however, waste a large number of cycles, inhibit out-of-order execution, and waste electric power on mis-speculated instructions. Hence, the branch predictor with higher accuracy is necessary for good processor performance. In global-history-based predictors like gshare and GAg, many mispredictions come from commit update of the branch history. Some works on this subject have discussed the need for speculative update of the history and recovery mechanisms for branch mispredictions. In this paper, we present a new mechanism for recovering the branch history after a misprediction. The proposed mechanism adds an age_counter to the original predictor and doubles the size of the branch history register. The age_counter counts the number of outstanding branches and uses it to recover the branch history register. Simulation results on the SimpleScalar 3.0/PISA tool set and the SPECINT95 benchmarks show that gshare and GAg with the proposed recovery mechanism improved the average prediction accuracy by 2.14% and 9.21%, respectively and the average IPC by 8.75% and 18.08%, respectively over the original predictor.

  • PDF

TLB 태그 공유 구조의 분기 타겟 버퍼 (A Branch Target Buffer Using Shared Tag Memory with TLB)

  • 이용환
    • 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국해양정보통신학회 2005년도 추계종합학술대회
    • /
    • pp.899-902
    • /
    • 2005
  • 마이크로프로세서의 성능 저하를 일으키는 주된 원인은 분기에 의한 파이프라인의 정지이다. 분기타겟 버퍼는 분기를 예측하여 다음 실행 명령어의 주소를 제공한다. 이로써 마이크로프로세서의 자연스런 명령어의 실행 흐름은 끊어지지 않게 되고 높은 성능 향상을 기대할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 가상주소를 실제주소로 바꾸어 주는 TLB와 분기 타겟 버퍼가 각각 가지고 있는 태그 메모리를 공유하는 구조를 제안한다. 이러한 공유 태그 구조의 이점은 2개의 태그 메모리를 하나로 공유함으로써 칩 면적의 감소를 꾀하고 분기 예측 속도를 향상시킬 수 있다는 점이다. 또한, 이러한 구조는 주소로 사용되는 비트 수가 커지거나 여러 개의 명령어를 동시에 실행할 수 있는 구조에서 이점이 더욱 커지기 때문에 향후 개발되는 마이크로프로세서에서 더욱 유용하게 사용될 수 있을 것이다.

  • PDF

Geohazard Monitoring with Space and Geophysical Technology - An Introduction to the KJRS 21(1) Special Issue-

  • Kim Jeong Woo;Jeon Jeong-Soo;Lee Youn Soo
    • 대한원격탐사학회지
    • /
    • 제21권1호
    • /
    • pp.3-13
    • /
    • 2005
  • National Research Lab Project 'Optimal Data Fusion of Geophysical and Geodetic Measurements for Geological Hazards Monitoring and Prediction' supported by Korea Ministry of Science and Technology is briefly described. The research focused on the geohazard analysis with geophysical and geodetic instruments such as superconducting gravimeter, seismometer, magnetometer, GPS, and Synthetic Aperture Radar. The aim of the NRL research is to verify the causes of geological hazards through optimal fusion of various observational data in three phases: surface data fusion using geodetic measurements; subsurface data fusion using geophysical measurements; and, finally fusion of both geodetic and geophysical data. The NRL hosted a special session 'Geohazard Monitoring with Space and Geophysical Technology' during the International Symposium on Remote Sensing in 2004 to discuss the current topics, challenges and possible directions in the geohazard research. Here, we briefly describe the special session papers and their relationships to the theme of the special session. The fusion of satellite and ground geophysical and geodetic data gives us new insight on the monitoring and prediction of the geological hazard.