• 전기학회논문지
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• 제59권12호
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• pp.2150-2156
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• 2010

In this paper, we investigate how an electricity capacity market design may encourage generators to exaggerate their available capacity. In order for an analytical approach, a two player game model is introduced. We focus on two pure strategy Nash equilibria: an equilibrium at which generators offer their true capacities, and an equilibrium at which generators offer exaggerated capacities. The latter case is caused by asymmetries of information between players and so called 'moral hazard' in terms of the economics literature. This paper shows that, considering practical electricity markets, the moral hazard case is highly probable. Moreover, it is shown that, with the considered capacity market design in the real world, the better the electricity energy market performs, the higher the risk of moral hazard becomes.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.257-266
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• 2014

This study was planned to investigate the effect of the exposure to hazard factors on work environment satisfaction. Existing researches about job satisfaction have focused on the general working conditions, such as working hours, wage, human relationship, job task and so on. Korean Working Conditions Survey was used for this study because that relevant questions were included. The effect of the exposure to hazard factors on work environment satisfaction may be produced by hierarchical regression analysis because of comparison with existing model for work environment satisfaction. The exposure to hazards factors were statistically significant effect on work environment satisfaction after adjusting other confounding variables, such as gender, age, educational level, job security, work hour, work load, work autonomy, social support, etc. This study has some limitation because that KWCS was cross sectional survey. Some researches about the causal effect and its mechanism may be suggested as future study.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.161-169
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• 2005

In this paper, we provide safety requirements and advices to guarantee the safety of an interface in a level crossing system which is an interface between the conventional facilities and the new ATP (Automatic Train Protection) system, as well as we accomplish a safety management for the facilities of a country that has a different standard with already standardized ATP system. The system model has been made based on a safety activity of the international standard, and then a tolerance of a risk by the safety activity through PHA (Preliminary Hazard Analysis) has been analyzed. finally we achieved HIA (Hazard Identification and Analysis) for the assumptions that have been produced from a operating scenario and a functional interface. Thus, the safety requirements for the interface has been provided from the safety plan of HIA, and we showed the safety activity to guarantee the system safety through HIA which was depend on the design.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제17권8호
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• pp.77-83
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• 2016

오늘날 다양한 산업분야에서는 시스템 안전을 확보하기 위한 표준들이 제정되었다. 해당 표준들에서는 시스템 개발 초기 단계인 개념설계 단계부터 위험원 분석 활동을 수행하고, 분석 결과를 안전을 확보하기 위한 시스템 설계 활동에 반영할 것을 제시하고 있다. 따라서 운영 목표에 부응하는 시스템의 설계와 시스템에 내재하는 위험원 분석은 밀접한 관계가 있다. 그럼에도 불구하고 기존에는 설계 결과의 검증에서 시스템 개념설계와 위험원 분석 결과를 분리하여 수행하였다. 본 논문에서는 분리 수행에 따른 문제를 개선하기 위하여 시스템 고장 모델과 시스템 아키텍처의 통합 모델에 대한 검증 방법을 연구하였다. 구체적으로, 먼저 대상시스템의 아키텍처를 시스템 모델링 언어인 SysML로 모델링 하였다. 그리고 나서 시스템 아키텍처 정보를 기반으로 위험원 분석을 수행하고, 이를 토대로 SysML 고장 모델을 생성하였다. 그 후에 시스템 고장 모델을 시스템 아키텍처에 통합하고, 이를 기반으로 고장에 대비한 안전 설계를 추가하였다. 최종적으로 시스템 운영 중 일부 고장에도 안전 설계 결과가 안전 목표를 만족하는지 검증하기 위한 시뮬레이션을 수행하였다.

• 대한공간정보학회지
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.85-91
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• 2006

최근, 사면붕괴는 산악지역에 접해있는 국도변에서 자연재해로 발생하고 있다. 산악지역의 급속한 도로개설, 확장 등 경제개발로 인하여 사면붕괴와 관련된 사고로 직결된다. 따라서, 국도 안전관리와 국도 기능을 유지하기 위하여 모든 사면의 정기점검은 필수적인 사항이다. 본 연구에서는 도로사면을 평가, 분석하기 이전에 사면붕괴 위험요소를 지리정보(GIS) 데이터베이스로 구축하는 것을 우선시 하고 있다. 따라서, 국도 접도사면의 지리정보(GIS) 정보가 수록되어진 사면대장(SMIS) 작성의 표준안을 제안하였다. 그 다음 연구단계로 로지스틱 회귀모형 적용함으로써 접도사면의 위험성을 사전 평가 할 수 있는 모델을 제시하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.1591-1598
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• 2014

The reviews of the balance sheet of commercial banks showed that loan item constitutes the largest portion of bank's assets. Although the sector has highest rate of profit, it possesses the greatest risk. Identifying factors that can contribute in lifting-up the loan repayment rate of customers of Hawassa district commercial bank is the major goal of this study. A sample of 183 customers who took loan from October, 2005 to April, 2012 was taken from the bank record. Kaplan-Meier estimation method and univariate Cox proportional hazard model were applied to identify factors affecting bank loan repayment rate. The result from Kaplan-Meier survival estimation revealed that the loan repayment rate is significantly related with loan type, and previous loan experience, educational level and mode of repayment. The log-rank test indicates that the survival probability of loan customers is not statistically different in repaying the loan among groups classified by sex. Moreover, the univariate Cox proportional hazard model result portrayed that educational level, having previous loan experience, mode of repayment, collateral type and purpose of loan are significantly related with loan repayment rate of customers commercial bank. Hence, banks should design loan strategies giving special emphasis on the significant factors while they are giving loans to their customers.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.5-24
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• 1994

The purpose of this study is to develop an accident hazard index model in order to be used for the evaluation of regional traffic safety and to develop a driver violation index model in order to identify the primary causes of traffic accidents. The accident hazard index model was developed considering the accident rates based on population and the vehicle registration. The driver violation index model was developed considering the accident rates of each item of driver violation. Using the models developed in this study, it is identified that in the provincial level analysis the degree of the traffic safety of Chungbuk, Chungnam, and Kyungbuk Province are evaluated to be low. In the county level analysis of Kyungnam Province, the degree of the traffic safety of Yangsan, Euirung, Haman, Sachun and Tongyung County are evaluated to be low. Also, it is found that the major driver violations causing accidents in the nation are driving by unlicensed drives, improper passing, and improper railroad crossing : in Kyungnam Province, improper passing is the most driver violation.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.321-333
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• 2007

In the proportional hazard model with the beta process prior, the posterior computation with the discrete approximation is considered. The time period of interest is partitioned by small intervals. On each partitioning interval, the likelihood is approximated by that of a binomial experiment and the beta process prior is by a beta distribution. Consequently, the posterior is approximated by that of many independent binomial model with beta priors. The analysis of the leukemia remission data is given as an example. It is illustrated that the length of the partitioning interval affects the posterior and one needs to be careful in choosing it.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.53-59
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• 2004

본 연구는 집중호우 시에 발생하는 맨홀뚜껑의 비산(飛散)현상의 원인을 수리모형과 수치모형(SWMM)을 사용하여 밝힌 연구이다. 대규모 간선에서 써차지 흐름의 급격한 수두상승 현상에 대해 수치모형과 수리모형 결과가 매우 잘 일치하였다. 맨홀 뚜껑이 비산 하는 현상의 원인은 펌프장의 게이트 조작이나 간선의 막힘 등으로 발생하는 써차지 흐름에 따른 압력전파에 의해 기인하는 맨홀 내 잔존 압축공기괴의 맨홀에서의 팽창 분출에 의한 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.23-29
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• 2008

본 연구는 사망률이 높은 도로 곡선부를 대상으로 도로설계요소를 기반으로 안전도 판단지수를 설정하고 이로부터 사고율을 산정하는 모듈과 곡선부와 곡선부 진입전 직선부에서의 속도차를 추정하는 모형을 개발하고 이로부터 곡선부의 안전도를 판단하는 등 두 개의 모듈을 제시하고 있다. 그리고 이러한 두 개의 모듈을 통합한 통합모델을 통해 곡선부의 안전도를 등급화 할 수 있도록 하는 것을 목적으로 한다.