• Title/Summary/Keyword: Hazard Factor

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The Relationship Between Son Preference and Fertility (남아 선호와 출산력간의 관계)

  • 이성용
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.31-57
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    • 2003
  • This study is intended to examine (l)whether the value of son-for example, old age security and succession of family lineage- causing son preference in the traditional society can be explained at the individual level, (2)whether women without son in the son preference country continue her childbearing until having at least one son or give up the desire of having a son at a certain level. To accomplish these purposes, the 1974 Korean National Fertility Survey data are analyzed by the quadratic hazard models controlling unobserved heterogeneity. Unlike ordinary regression model, even omitted variables that affect hazard rates and are uncorrelated with the included independent variables can distort the parameter estimates in the hazard model. Therefore the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator(NPMLE) of a mixing distribution developed by Heckman and Singer is used to control unobserved heterogeneity. Based on the statistical result in this study, the value of son causing son preference is determined at the societal level, not at the individual level. And Korean women without a son did not continue endlessly childbearing during child bearing ages until having a son. In general, they gave up the desire having a son when she had born six daughters continuously. Thus, 30-40 years ago, the number of daughters that women without a son giving up the desire of son was six, which is about the level of total fertility rate during 1960s. In these days, we can often see many women who have only two or three daughters and do not any son. This means that the level of giving up the desire of son, which is one factor representing the strength of son preference, becomes lower. If the strength of son preference did not become much weaker, then the fertility rates in Korea could not reach the below replacement level.

The Effects of Female Wage on Fertility in Korea (여성의 임금수준이 출산율에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Jungho
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.105-138
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    • 2009
  • Although the decline in fertility rate is generally observed along the history of economic development throughout the world, the continuing decline hitting below the replacement level in Korea over the recent years gathered serious social concerns on the ground that it accelerates the process of population aging. The total fertility rate in Koreareached 2.08 in 1983, and gradually fell to the levels of 1.08 in 2005 and 1.26 in 2007. The policy debate over the role of the government has been focused mainly on the level of theoretical discussion without substantial basis on firm empirical evidence and the determinants of fertility. The objective of the paper is to empirically investigate the fertility effect of the female wage, which is understood as one of the most important determinants of fertility in Koreasince 1980 focusing on one aspect of fertility, namely birth spacing. Using the Korean National Fertility Survey conducted in 2006, I estimate a duration model of first and second births taking into account individual heterogeneity, which turned out to be an important factor to control for. Compared with previous studies in the literature on the Korean fertility, the study has an advantage of using the complete pregnancy history of women in a more representative sample. Unlike the previous studies, the analysis also deals with the endogeneity of marriage by treating a certain age, rather than age at marriage, as the time in which a woman becomes exposed to the risk of pregnancy. The study shares the common problem in the literature on birth spacing of lacking relevant wage information for respondents in a retrospective survey. I estimate the wage series as a function of the basic characteristics using the annual Wage Structure Survey from 1980 to 2005, which is considered as a nationally representative sample for wage information of employees. The results suggest that the increase in female wage by 10 percent leads to a decrease in second birth hazard by 0.56~0.92 percentage points and that the increase in spouse's wage by the equal amount is accompanied by the increase in second birth hazard by 0.36~1.13 percentage points. These estimates are more precisely estimated and of smaller magnitude than those presented by the previous studies. The results are robust to the different specifications of the wage equation. The simulation analysis based on the predicted values shows that about 17% of the change in the second birth hazard over the period 1980 to 2005 was due to the change in the female wage. Although there is some limitation in data, the results can be viewed as one estimate of the role of female wage on the recent fertility decline in Korea. The question raised by the paper is not a normative one of whether a government should promote childbearing but a positive one thatexplains fertility decline. Therefore, if there is a wide consensus on promoting childbearing, the finding suggests that the policies designed to reduce the opportunity cost of women in the labor market would be effective. The recent movement of implementing a wide range of family-friendly policies including child care support, maternity leave, parental leave and tax benefit in developed countries should be understood in this context.

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Microbiological Hazard Analysis for HACCP System Application to Non Heat-Frozen Carrot Juice (비가열냉동 당근주스의 HACCP 시스템 적용을 위한 미생물학적 위해 분석)

  • Lee, Ung-Soo;Kwon, Sang-Chul
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.79-84
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    • 2014
  • This study has been performed for about 270 days at analyzing biologically hazardous factors in order to develop HACCP system for the non heat-frozen carrot juice. A process chart was prepared by manufacturing process of raw agricultural products of non heat-frozen carrot juice, which was contained water and packing material, storage, washing, cutting, extraction of the juice, internal packing, metal detection, external packing, storage and consignment (delivery). As a result of measuring Coliform group, Staphylococcus aureus, Salmonella spp., Bacillus cereus, Listeria Monocytogenes, Enterohemorrhagic E. coli before and after washing raw carrot, Standard plate count was $4.7{\times}10^4CFU/g$ before washing but it was $1.2{\times}10^2CFU/g$ detected after washing. As a result of testing airborne bacteria (Standard plate count, Coliform group, Yeast and Fungal) depending on each workplace, number of microorganism of in packaging room, shower room and juice extraction room was detected to be 10 CFU/Plate, 60 CFU/Plate, 20 CFU/Plate, respectively. As a result of testing palm condition of workers, as number of Standard plate count, Coliform group and Staphylococcus aureus was represented to be high as $6{\times}10^4CFU/cm^2$, $0CFU/cm^2$ and $0CFU/cm^2$, respectively, an education and training for individual sanitation control was considered to be required. As a result of inspecting surface pollution level of manufacturing facility and devices, Coliform group was not detected in all the specimen but Standard plate count was most dominantly detected in scouring kier, scouring kier tray, cooling tank, grinding extractor, storage tank and packaging machine-nozzle as $8.00{\times}10CFU/cm^2$, $3.0{\times}10CFU/cm^2$, $4.3{\times}10^2CFU/cm^2$, $7.5{\times}10^2CFU/cm^2$, $6.0{\times}10CFU/cm^2$, $8.5{\times}10^2CFU/cm^2$ respectively. As a result of analyzing above hazardous factors, processing process of ultraviolet ray sterilizing where pathogenic bacteria may be prevented, reduced or removed is required to be controlled by CCP-B (Biological) and critical level (critical control point) was set at flow speed is 4L/min. Therefore, it is considered that thorough HACCP control plan including control criteria (point) of seasoning fluid processing process, countermeasures in case of its deviation, its verification method, education/training and record control would be required.

The Relationship between Climate and Food Incidents in Korea (식품안전 사건 사고와 기후요소와의 관련성)

  • Lee, Jong-Hwa;Kim, Young-Soo;Baek, Hee-Jung;Chung, Myung-Sub
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.297-307
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    • 2011
  • This study investigates relation of food safety incidents with climate. Therefore food safety incidents and climate data during 1999 to 2009 have been analyzed. In situ observations of monthly mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity in 60 observation stations of Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) have been used in this study. Food safety incidents data have been constructed by searching media reports following Park's method (2009) during the same period. According to the Park's method, 729 events were collected. To analyze its relations, food safety incidents data have been classified into chemical, biological, and physical hazards. Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients have been applied to analyze the relations. The correlation of food safety incidents has negative one with precipitation (-0.48), and positive one with minimum temperature(0.45). Precipitation has been correlated with biological and physical hazards more than chemical hazard. Temperatures (mean temperature, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature) have been correlated closely with chemical hazard than others. Food safety incidents data has been interblended with human behavior factor through decision-making processes in food manufacturing, processing, and consumption phases of "farm-totable" food processing. Act in the preventing damage will be obvious if the hazard were apparent. Therefore abnormal condition could be more dangerous than that of apparent extreme events because apparent events or extreme events become one of alarm over hazards. Therefore, human behavior should be considered as one of the important factors for analysis of food safety incidents. The result of this study can be used as a better case study for food safety researches related to climate change.

The effect of clinical performance on the survival estimates of direct restorations

  • Kim, Kyou-Li;NamGung, Cheol;Cho, Byeong-Hoon
    • Restorative Dentistry and Endodontics
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2013
  • Objectives: In most retrospective studies, the clinical performance of restorations had not been considered in survival analysis. This study investigated the effect of including the clinically unacceptable cases according to modified United States Public Health Service (USPHS) criteria into the failed data on the survival analysis of direct restorations as to the longevity and prognostic variables. Materials and Methods: Nine hundred and sixty-seven direct restorations were evaluated. The data of 204 retreated restorations were collected from the records, and clinical performance of 763 restorations in function was evaluated according to modified USPHS criteria by two observers. The longevity and prognostic variables of the restorations were compared with a factor of involving clinically unacceptable cases into the failures using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard model. Results: The median survival times of amalgam, composite resin and glass ionomer were 11.8, 11.0 and 6.8 years, respectively. Glass ionomer showed significantly lower longevity than composite resin and amalgam. When clinically unacceptable restorations were included into the failure, the median survival times of them decreased to 8.9, 9.7 and 6.4 years, respectively. Conclusions: After considering the clinical performance, composite resin was the only material that showed a difference in the longevity (p < 0.05) and the significantly higher relative risk of student group than professor group disappeared in operator groups. Even in the design of retrospective study, clinical evaluation needs to be included.

A Product Risk Assessment based on Scenario for Safety Management (제품안전관리를 위한 시나리오 기반의 리스크 평가기법 연구)

  • Suh, Jungdae
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.12 no.8
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2014
  • In this study, a risk assessment method based on scenario for the product safety management in Korea has been developed and proposed. To this end, Korea's related regulations for product safety management should be analyzed first, and the risk assessment method necessary for the enforcement of the regulations is presented by itemizing the method into the case of general injury and toxic substances. The features of the method presented in this study are as follows: (i) It is a method based on the injury scenario which can occur during the use of product. (ii) It assesses a risk based on the probability of the scenario and the severity of injury. (iii) In the case of toxic substances, it assesses a risk considering the hazard of the toxic substances on the human body and the severity of injury. To determine the probability of the injury scenario, this study has decomposed the scenario into several configuration factors and estimates each factor's probability to calculate the whole scenario's probability. The results of risk assessment through the method of this study are presented and it is shown that the method can be applied to the product classification for the product safety management.

Effects of Obesity on Presentation of Breast Cancer, Lymph Node Metastasis and Patient Survival: A Retrospective Review

  • Kaviani, Ahmad;Neishaboury, MohamadReza;Mohammadzadeh, Narjes;Ansari-Damavandi, Maryam;Jamei, Khatereh
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.2225-2229
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    • 2013
  • Background: As data on the relation between obesity and lymph node ratio are missing in the literature, we here aimed to assess the impact of obesity on this parameter and other clinicopathological features of breast cancer cases and patient survival. Materials and Methods: Medical data of 646 patients, all referred to two centers in Tehran, Iran, were reviewed. Factors that showed significant association on univariate analysis were entered in a regression model. Kaplan-Meier and Cox-regression were employed for survival analysis. Results: Obesity was correlated with the expression of estrogen and progesterone receptor (p=0.004 and p=0.039, respectively), metastasis to axillary lymph nodes (p=0.017), higher lymph node rate (p<0.001) and larger tumor size (p<0.001). The effect of obesity was stronger in premenopausal women. There was no association between obesity and expression of human epidermal growth factor receptor. Three factors showed independent association with BMI on multivariate analysis; tumor size, estrogen receptor and lymph node ratio. Obesity was predictive of shorter disease-free survival with a hazard ratio of 3.324 (95%CI: 1.225-9.017) after controlling for the above-mentioned variables. Conclusions: The findings of this study support the idea that obese women experience more advanced disease with higher axillary lymph node ratio, and therefore higher stage at the time of diagnosis. Furthermore, obesity was associated with poorer survival independent of lymph node rate.

The Assessing Comparative Study for Statistical Process Control of Software Reliability Model Based on Logarithmic Learning Effects (대수형 학습효과에 근거한 소프트웨어 신뢰모형에 관한 통계적 공정관리 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Kyung-Soo;Kim, Hee-Cheul
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.12
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    • pp.319-326
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    • 2013
  • There are many software reliability models that are based on the times of occurrences of errors in the debugging of software. Software error detection techniques known in advance, but influencing factors for considering the errors found automatically and learning factors, by prior experience, to find precisely the error factor setting up the testing manager are presented comparing the problem. It is shown that it is possible to do asymptotic likelihood inference for software reliability models based on infinite failure model and non-homogeneous Poisson Processes (NHPP). Statistical process control (SPC) can monitor the forecasting of software failure and thereby contribute significantly to the improvement of software reliability. Control charts are widely used for software process control in the software industry. In this paper, we proposed a control mechanism based on NHPP using mean value function of logarithmic hazard learning effects property.

Postprandial Changes in Gastrointestinal Hormones and Hemodynamics after Gastrectomy in Terms of Early Dumping Syndrome

  • Yang, Jun-Young;Lee, Hyuk-Joon;Alzahrani, Fadhel;Choi, Seung Joon;Lee, Woon Kee;Kong, Seong-Ho;Park, Do-Joong;Yang, Han-Kwang
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.256-266
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This study aimed to examine the early postprandial changes in gastrointestinal (GI) hormones and hemodynamics in terms of early dumping syndrome after gastrectomy for gastric cancer. Materials and Methods: Forty patients who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer and 18 controls without previous abdominal surgery were enrolled. Before and 20 minutes after liquid meal ingestion, blood glucose, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), and GLP-2 concentrations and superior mesenteric artery (SMA) and renal blood flow were measured. The patients' heart rates were recorded at 5-minute intervals. All subjects were examined for dumping syndrome using a questionnaire based on Sigstad's clinical diagnostic index. Results: The postprandial increases in blood glucose, GLP-1, and GLP-2 levels as well as SMA blood flow and heart rate were greater in patients who underwent gastrectomy than in controls (all P<0.010). Patients who underwent gastrectomy showed a significantly decreased renal blood flow (P<0.001). Among patients who underwent gastrectomy, distal gastrectomy was a significant clinical factor associated with a lower risk of early dumping syndrome than total gastrectomy (hazard ratio, 0.092; 95% confidence interval, 0.013-0.649; P=0.017). Patients who underwent total gastrectomy showed a greater postprandial increase in blood glucose (P<0.001), GLP-1 (P=0.030), and GLP-2 (P=0.002) levels as well as and heart rate (P=0.013) compared to those who underwent distal gastrectomy. Conclusions: Early postprandial changes in GI hormones and hemodynamics were greater in patients who underwent gastrectomy than in controls, especially after total gastrectomy, suggesting that these changes play a crucial role in the pathophysiology of early dumping syndrome.

Prognostic Value of Lymph Node Ratios in Node Positive Rectal Cancer Treated with Preoperative Chemoradiation

  • Nadoshan, Jamal Jafari;Omranipour, Ramesh;Beiki, Omid;Zendedel, Kazem;Alibakhshi, Abbas;Mahmoodzadeh, Habibollah
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.3769-3772
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    • 2013
  • Background: To investigate the impact of the lymph node ratio (LNR) on the prognosis of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer undergoing pre-operative chemoradiation. Methods: Clinicopathologic and follow up data of 128 patients with stage III rectal cancer who underwent curative resection from 1996 to 2007 were reviewed. The patients were divided into two groups according to the lymph node ratio: LNR ${\leq}$ 0.2 (n=28), and >0.2 (n=100). Kaplan-Meier and the Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to evaluate the prognostic effects according to LNR. Results: Median numbers of lymph nodes examined and lymph nodes involved by tumour were 10.3 (range 2-28) and 5.8 (range 1-25), respectively, and the median LNR was 0.5 (range, 0-1.6). The 5-year survival rate significantly differed by LNR (${\leq}$ 0.2, 69%; >0.2, 19%; Log-rank p value < 0.001). LNR was also a significant prognostic factor of survival adjusted for age, sex, post-operative chemotherapy, total number of examined lymph nodes, metastasis and local recurrence (${\leq}$ 0.2, HR=1; >0.2, HR=4.8, 95%CI=2.1-11.1) and a significant predictor of local recurrence and distant metastasis during follow-up independently of total number of examined lymph node. Conclusions: Total number of examined lymph nodes and LNR were significant prognostic factors for survival in patients with stage III rectal cancer undergoing pre-operative chemoradiotherapy.