• Title/Summary/Keyword: HAS-160

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Machine learning-based corporate default risk prediction model verification and policy recommendation: Focusing on improvement through stacking ensemble model (머신러닝 기반 기업부도위험 예측모델 검증 및 정책적 제언: 스태킹 앙상블 모델을 통한 개선을 중심으로)

  • Eom, Haneul;Kim, Jaeseong;Choi, Sangok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.105-129
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    • 2020
  • This study uses corporate data from 2012 to 2018 when K-IFRS was applied in earnest to predict default risks. The data used in the analysis totaled 10,545 rows, consisting of 160 columns including 38 in the statement of financial position, 26 in the statement of comprehensive income, 11 in the statement of cash flows, and 76 in the index of financial ratios. Unlike most previous prior studies used the default event as the basis for learning about default risk, this study calculated default risk using the market capitalization and stock price volatility of each company based on the Merton model. Through this, it was able to solve the problem of data imbalance due to the scarcity of default events, which had been pointed out as the limitation of the existing methodology, and the problem of reflecting the difference in default risk that exists within ordinary companies. Because learning was conducted only by using corporate information available to unlisted companies, default risks of unlisted companies without stock price information can be appropriately derived. Through this, it can provide stable default risk assessment services to unlisted companies that are difficult to determine proper default risk with traditional credit rating models such as small and medium-sized companies and startups. Although there has been an active study of predicting corporate default risks using machine learning recently, model bias issues exist because most studies are making predictions based on a single model. Stable and reliable valuation methodology is required for the calculation of default risk, given that the entity's default risk information is very widely utilized in the market and the sensitivity to the difference in default risk is high. Also, Strict standards are also required for methods of calculation. The credit rating method stipulated by the Financial Services Commission in the Financial Investment Regulations calls for the preparation of evaluation methods, including verification of the adequacy of evaluation methods, in consideration of past statistical data and experiences on credit ratings and changes in future market conditions. This study allowed the reduction of individual models' bias by utilizing stacking ensemble techniques that synthesize various machine learning models. This allows us to capture complex nonlinear relationships between default risk and various corporate information and maximize the advantages of machine learning-based default risk prediction models that take less time to calculate. To calculate forecasts by sub model to be used as input data for the Stacking Ensemble model, training data were divided into seven pieces, and sub-models were trained in a divided set to produce forecasts. To compare the predictive power of the Stacking Ensemble model, Random Forest, MLP, and CNN models were trained with full training data, then the predictive power of each model was verified on the test set. The analysis showed that the Stacking Ensemble model exceeded the predictive power of the Random Forest model, which had the best performance on a single model. Next, to check for statistically significant differences between the Stacking Ensemble model and the forecasts for each individual model, the Pair between the Stacking Ensemble model and each individual model was constructed. Because the results of the Shapiro-wilk normality test also showed that all Pair did not follow normality, Using the nonparametric method wilcoxon rank sum test, we checked whether the two model forecasts that make up the Pair showed statistically significant differences. The analysis showed that the forecasts of the Staging Ensemble model showed statistically significant differences from those of the MLP model and CNN model. In addition, this study can provide a methodology that allows existing credit rating agencies to apply machine learning-based bankruptcy risk prediction methodologies, given that traditional credit rating models can also be reflected as sub-models to calculate the final default probability. Also, the Stacking Ensemble techniques proposed in this study can help design to meet the requirements of the Financial Investment Business Regulations through the combination of various sub-models. We hope that this research will be used as a resource to increase practical use by overcoming and improving the limitations of existing machine learning-based models.

Anthropometric Measurement, Dietary Behaviors, Health-related Behaviors and Nutrient Intake According to Lifestyles of College Students (대학생의 라이프스타일 유형에 따른 신체계측, 식행동, 건강관련 생활습관 및 영양소 섭취상태에 관한 연구)

  • Cheong, Sun-Hee;Na, Young-Joo;Lee, Eun-Hee;Chang, Kyung-Ja
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.36 no.12
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    • pp.1560-1570
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the differences according to lifestyle in anthropometric measurement, dietary attitude, health-related behaviors and nutrient intake among the college students. The subjects were 994 nation-wide college students (male: 385, female: 609) and divided into 7 clusters (PEAO: passive economy/appearance-oriented type, NCPR: non-consumption/pursuit of relationship type, PTA: pursuit of traditional actuality type, PAT: pursuit of active health type, UO: utility-oriented type, POF: pursuit of open fashion type, PFR: pursuit of family relations type). A cross-sectional survey was conducted using a self administered questionnaire, and the data were collected via Internet or by mail. The nutrient intake data collected from food record were analyzed by the Computer Aided Nutritional Analysis Program. Data were analyzed by a SPSS 12.0 program. Average age of male and female college students were 23.7 years and 21.6 years, respectively. Most of the college students had poor eating habits. In particular, about 60% of the PEAO group has irregularity in meal time. The students in PAH and POF groups showed significantly higher consumption frequency of fruits, meat products and foods cooked with oil compared to the other groups. As for exercise, drinking and smoking, there were significant differences between PAH and the other groups. Asked for the reason for body weight control, 16.2% of NCPR group answered "for health", but 24.8% of PEAO group and 26.3% of POF group answered "for appearance". Calorie, vitamin A, vitamin $B_2$, calcium and iron intakes of all the groups were lower than the Korean DRIs. Female students in PTA group showed significantly lower vitamin $B_1$ and niacin intakes compared to the PFR group. Therefore, these results provide nation-wide information on health-related behaviors and nutrient intake according to lifestyles among Korean college students.

An Interpretation of the Korean Fairy-Tale "Borrowed Fortune From Heaven" From the Perspective of Analytical Psychology (한국민담 <하늘에서 빌려온 복>에 대한 분석심리학적 이해)

  • Kihong Baek
    • Sim-seong Yeon-gu
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.112-160
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    • 2023
  • This study examined the Korean folklore "Borrowed Fortune from Heaven" from the perspective of Analytical Psychology, considering it a manifestation of the human psyche, and tried to gain a deeper understanding of what happens in our mind. Through the exploration, the researcher was able to re-identify the ongoing psychological process operating in the depths of our mind, pertaining to the emergence of a new dimension of consciousness. Particularly the researcher was able to gain some insights into how the potential psychic elements for the new consciousness are prepared in the unconscious, how they get integrated into the conscious life, and what is essential for the accomplishment of the process. The tale begins with a poor woodcutter who, in order to escape from poverty, starts gathering twice as much firewood. However, the newly acquired amount disappears overnight, so the woodcutter gets perplexed and curious about where it goes and who is taking it. He seeks to find out the truth, which leads him to an unexpected journey to Heaven. There he learns the truth concerning his very tiny amount of fortune, and discovers another big fortune for an unborn person. By pleading with the ruler of Heaven, the woodcutter borrows that grand fortune, on the condition that he must return it to the owner when the time comes. After that, the woodcutter's life undergoes a series of changes, in which he finally becomes a wealthy farmer, but gradually is reminded more and more that the destined time is approaching. In the end, the fortune is completely transferred to the original owner, resulting in a dramatic twist and the creation of a new life circumstances. The overall plot can be understood as a reflection of the psychological process aiming at the evolution of consciousness through renewal. In this context, the woodcutter can be considered a psychic element that undergoes a continuous transformation in preparation for participating in the upcoming new consciousness. In other words, the changes brought about by this figure can be interpreted as a gradual and increasingly detailed foreshadowing of what the forthcoming new consciousness would be like. Interestingly, as the destined time approaches, the protagonist's anguish in conflict reaches its climax, despite his good performance in his role until then. This effectively portrays the difficulty of achieving a new dimension of consciousness, which requires moving past the last step. All the events in the story ultimately converge at this point. After all, the resolution occurs when the protagonist lets go of everything he has and follows the will of Heaven. This implies what is essential for the renewal of consciousness. Only by completely complying with the entire mind, the potential constituents of the new consciousness that should play important roles in a renewal and evolution of consciousness through experiencing, can participate in the ultimate outcome. As long as they remain trapped in any intermediate stage, the totality of the psyche would develop another detour aiming at the final destination, which means the beginning of another period of suffering carrying a purposeful meaning. The tale suggests that this truth will be applied everywhere that renewal of consciousness is directed, whether for an individual or a society.

Four-year change and tracking of serum lipids in Korean adolescents (강화지역 청소년의 4년간 혈청 지질의 변화와 지속성)

  • Lee, Kang-Hee;Suh, Il;Jee, Sun-Ha;Nam, Chung-Mo;Kim, Sung-Soon;Shim, Won-Heum;Ha, Jong-Won;Kim, Suk-Il;Kang, Hyung-Gon
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.30 no.1 s.56
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    • pp.45-59
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    • 1997
  • It has been known that there is a tracking phenomenon in the level of serum lipids. However, no study has been performed to examine the change and tracking of serum lipids in Korean adolescents. The purpose of this study is to examine the changes of serum lipids in Korean adolescents from 12 to 16 years of age, and to examine whether or not there is a tracking phenomenon in serum lipids level during the period. In 1992 serum lipids(total cholesterol(TC), triglyceride(TG), LDL cholesterol(LDL-C), HDL cholesterol(HDL-C)) were measured in 318 males, 365 females who were 12 years of age in Kangwha county, Korea. These participants have been followed up to 1996 and serum lipids level were examined in 1994 and 1996. Among the participants 162 males and 147 females completed all three examinations in fasting state. To examine the effect of eliminating adolescents with incomplete data, we compared serum lipids, blood pressure and anthropometric measures at baseline between adolescents with complete follow-up and adolescents who were withdrawn. To examine the change of serum lipids we compared mean values of serum lipids according to age in males and females. Repeated analysis of variance was used to test the change according to age. We used three methods to examine the existence of tracking. First, we analyzed the trends in serum lipids over 4-year period within quartile groups formed on the basis of the first-year serum lipids level to see whether or not the relative ranking of the mean serum lipids among the quartile groups remained in the same group for 4-year period. Second, we quantified the degree of tracking by calculating Spearman's rank correlation coefficient between every tests. Third, the persistence extreme quartile method was used. This method divides the population into quartile groups according to the initial level of blood lipids and then calculates the percent of the subjects who stayed in the same group at follow-up measurement. The decreases in levels were noted during 4 years for TC, LDL-C, primarily for boys. The level of HDL-C decreased between baseline and first follow-up for both sexes. Tracking, as measured by both correlation coefficients and persistence extreme quartiles, was evident for all of the lipids. The correlation coefficients of TC between baseline and 4 years later in boys and girls were 0.55 and 0.68, respectively. And the corresponding values for HDL-C were 0.58 and 0.69. More than 50% of adolescents who belonged to the highest quartile group in TC, HDL-C and LDL-C at the baseline were remained at the same group at the examination performed 2 years later for both sexes. The probabilities of remaining at the same group were more than 35% when examined 4 years later. The tracking phenomenon of TG was less evident compared with the other lipids. Percents of girls who stayed at the same group 2 years later and 4 years later were 42.9% and 25.7%, respectively. It was evident that serum lipid levels tracked in Korean adolescents. Researches with longer follow-up would be needed in the future to investigate the long-term change of lipids from adolescents to adults.

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Studies on the Internal Changes and Germinability during the Period of Seed Maturation of Pinus koraiensis Sieb. et Zucc. (잣나무 종자(種字) 성숙과정(成熟過程)에 있어서의 내적변화(內的變化)와 발아력(發芽力)에 대(對)한 연구(硏究))

  • Min, Kyung-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 1974
  • The author intended to investigate external and internal changes in the cone structure, changes in water content, sugar, fat and protein during the period of seed maturation which bears a proper germinability. The experimental results can be summarized as in the following. 1. Male flowers 1) Pollen-mother cells occur as a mass from late in April to early in May, and form pollen tetrads through meiosis early and middle of May. Pollen with simple nucleus reach maturity late in May. 2) Stamen number of a male flower is almost same as the scale number of cone and is 69-102 stamens. One stamen includes 5800-7300 pollen. 3) The shape is round and elliptical, both of a pollen has air-sac with $80-91{\mu}$ in length, and has cuticlar exine and cellulose intine. 4) Pollen germinate in 68 hours at $25^{\circ}C$ with distilled water of pH 6.0, 2% sugar and 0.8% agar. 2. Female flowers 1) Ovuliferous scales grow rapidly in late April, and differentiation of ovules begins early in May. Embryo-sac-mother cells produce pollen tetrads through meiosis in the middle of May, and flower in late May. 2) The pollinated female flowers show repeated divisions of embryo-sac nucleus, and a great number of free nuclei form a mass for overwintering. Morphogenesis of isolation in the mass structure takes place from the middle of March, and that forms albuminous bodies of aivealus in early May. 3. Formation of pollinators and embryos. 1) Archegonia produce archegonial initial cells in the middle and late April, and pollinators are produced in the late April and late in early May. 2) After pollination, Oespore nuclei are seen to divide in the late May forming a layer of suspensor from the diaphragm in early June and in the middle of June. Thus this happens to show 4 pro-embryos. The organ of embryos begins to differentiate 1 pro-embryo and reachs perfect maturation in late August. 4. The growth of cones 1) In the year of flowering, strobiles grow during the period from the middle of June to the middle of July, and do not grow after the middle of August. Strobiles grow 1.6 times more in length 3.3 times short in diameter and about 22 times more weight than those of female flower in the year of flowering. 2) The cones at the adult stage grow 7 times longer in diameter, 12-15 times shorter diameter than those of strobiles after flowering. 3) Cone has 96-133 scales with the ratio of scale to be 69-80% and the length of cone is 11-13cm. Diameter is 5-8cm with 160-190g weight, and the seed number of it is 90-150 having empty seed ratio of 8-15%. 5. Formation of seed-coats 1) The layers of outer seed-coat become most for the width of $703{\mu}$ in the middle of July. At the adult stage of seed, it becomes $550-580{\mu}$ in size by decreasing moisture content. Then a horny and the cortical tissue of outer coats become differentiated. 2) The outer seed-coat of mature seeds forms epidermal cells of 3-4 layers and the stone cells of 16-21 layers. The interior part of it becomes parenchyma layer of 1 or 2 rows. 3) Inner seed-coat is formed 2 months earlier than the outer seed-coat in the middle of May, having the most width of inner seed-coat $667{\mu}$. At the adult stage it loses to $80-90{\mu}$. 6. Change in moisture content After pollination moisture content becomes gradually increased at the top in the early June and becomes markedly decreased in the middle of August. At the adult stage it shows 43~48% in cone, 23~25% in the outer seed-coat, 32~37% in the inner seed-coat, 23~26% in the inner seed-coat and endosperm and embryo, 21~24% in the embryo and endosperm, 36~40% in the embryos. 7. The content compositions of seed 1) Fat contents become gradually increased after the early May, at the adult stage it occupies 65~85% more fat than walnut and palm. Embryo includes 78.8% fat, and 57.0% fat in endosperm. 2) Sugar content after pollination becomes greatly increased as in the case of reducing sugar, while non-reducing sugar becomes increased in the early June. 3) Crude protein content becomes gradually increased after the early May, and at the adult stage it becomes 48.8%. Endosperm is made up with more protein than embryo. 8. The test of germination The collected optimum period of Pinus koraiensis seeds at an adequate maturity was collected in the early September, and used for the germination test of reduction-method and embryo culture. Seeds were taken at the interval of 7 days from the middle of July to the middle of September for the germination test at germination apparatus.

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