• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.559-575
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• 2014

Individual investors are increasingly flocking to message boards to seek, clarify, and exchange information. Businesses like Seekingalpha.com and business magazines like Fortune are evaluating, synthesizing, and reporting the comments made on message boards or blogs. In March of 2012, Yahoo! Finance Message Boards recorded 45 million unique visitors per month followed by AOL Money and Finance (19.8 million), and Google Finance (1.6 million) [McIntyre, 2012]. Previous studies in the finance literature suggest that online communities often provide more accurate information than analyst forecasts [Bagnoli et al., 1999; Clarkson et al., 2006]. Some studies empirically show that the volume of posts in online communities have a positive relationship with market activities (e.g., trading volumes) [Antweiler and Frank, 2004; Bagnoli et al., 1999; Das and Chen, 2007; Tumarkin and Whitelaw, 2001]. The findings indicate that information in online communities does impact investors' investment decisions and trading behaviors. However, research explicating the correlation between information on online communities and stock market activities (e.g., trading volume) is still evolving. Thus, it is important to ask whether a volume of posts on online communities influences trading volumes and whether trading volumes also influence these communities. Online stock message boards offer two different types of information, which can be explained using an economic and a psychological perspective. From a purely economic perspective, one would expect that stock message boards would have a beneficial effect, since they provide timely information at a much lower cost [Bagnoli et al., 1999; Clarkson et al., 2006; Birchler and Butler, 2007]. This indicates that information in stock message boards may provide valuable information investors can use to predict stock market activities and thus may use to make better investment decisions. On the other hand, psychological studies have shown that stock message boards may not necessarily make investors more informed. The related literature argues that confirmation bias causes investors to seek other investors with the same opinions on these stock message boards [Chen and Gu, 2009; Park et al., 2013]. For example, investors may want to share their painful investment experiences with others on stock message boards and are relieved to find they are not alone. In this case, the information on these stock message boards mainly reflects past experience or past information and not valuable and predictable information for market activities. This study thus investigates the two roles of stock message boards-providing valuable information to make future investment decisions or sharing past experiences that reflect mainly investors' painful or boastful stories. If stock message boards do provide valuable information for stock investment decisions, then investors will use this information and thereby influence stock market activities (e.g., trading volume). On the contrary, if investors made investment decisions and visit stock message boards later, they will mainly share their past experiences with others. In this case, past activities in the stock market will influence the stock message boards. These arguments indicate that there is a correlation between information posted on stock message boards and stock market activities. The previous literature has examined the impact of stock sentiments or the number of posts on stock market activities (e.g., trading volume, volatility, stock prices). However, the studies related to stock sentiments found it difficult to obtain significant results. It is not easy to identify useful information among the millions of posts, many of which can be just noise. As a result, the overall sentiments of stock message boards often carry little information for future stock movements [Das and Chen, 2001; Antweiler and Frank, 2004]. This study notes that as a dependent variable, trading volume is more reliable for capturing the effect of stock message board activities. The finance literature argues that trading volume is an indicator of stock price movements [Das et al., 2005; Das and Chen, 2007]. In this regard, this study investigates the correlation between a number of posts (information on stock message boards) and trading volume (stock market activity). We collected about 100,000 messages of 40 companies at KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) from Paxnet, the most popular Korean online stock message board. The messages we collected were divided into in-trading and after-trading hours to examine the correlation between the numbers of posts and trading volumes in detail. Also we collected the volume of the stock of the 40 companies. The vector regression analysis and the granger causality test, 3SLS analysis were performed on our panel data sets. We found that the number of posts on online stock message boards is positively related to prior stock trade volume. Also, we found that the impact of the number of posts on stock trading volumes is not statistically significant. Also, we empirically showed the correlation between stock trading volumes and the number of posts on stock message boards. The results of this study contribute to the IS and finance literature in that we identified online stock message board's two roles. Also, this study suggests that stock trading managers should carefully monitor information on stock message boards to understand stock market activities in advance.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.145-174
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• 2017

Recently, due to the worsening global economic recession, Korea which is a small, export-oriented economy has decreased exports and the domestic economy also continues to stagnate. Therefore, for continued growth of our economy through export growth, we need to analyze the validity of export support system such as export insurance and prepare ways to expand exports. This study is to investigate the effects of Export Insurance on the exports of SMEs as well as LEs. For this purpose, this study conducted Time Series Analysis using data such as export, export insurance acquisition, export price index, exchange rate, and coincident composite index(CCI). First, as a result of the Granger Causality Test, the exports of LEs has found to have a causal relationship with the CCI, and CCI is to have a causal relationship with the short-term export insurance record. Second, the results of VAR analysis show that the export insurance acquisition result and the export price index have a positive effect on the exports of LEs, while the short - term export insurance has a negative effect on the exports of LEs. Third, as a result of variance decomposition, the export of LEs has much more influenced for mid to long term by the short-term export insurance acquisition compared to SMEs. Fourth, short-term export insurance has a positive effect on exports of SMEs. In order to activate short-term export insurance against SMEs, it is necessary to expand support for SMEs by local governments. This study aims to suggest policy implications for establishing effective export insurance policy by analyzing the effects of export insurance on the export of SMEs as well as LEs. It is necessary to carry out a time series analysis on the export results according to the insurance acquisition results by industry to measure the export support effect of export insurance more precisely.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.131-177
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• 2006

This paper examines a simultaneous determination of corporate control mechanisms, and its effects on firm performance. The corporate control mechanisms considered include the following; insider shareholding, institutional shareholding, the board of directors, dividend policy, and capital structure. This paper applies a simultaneous equation methodology and investigates the interdependence among the corporate control mechanisms. In the first part, the paper finds that firm-level variations of control mechanisms are large across time although average variations are relatively small. These variations are related to one another, which is confirmed by Granger causality test based on dynamic panel autoregression model. More specifically insider shareholding, institutional shareholding and outside director ratio cause each other. With regard to interdependence among the control mechanisms, 2SLS(two stage least squares) regression results show that insider shareholding and institutional shareholding are substitutes while institutional shareholding acts as complements to the ratio of outside members in the board of directors. Then in the second part, the paper examines the relationship between firm performance and corporate governance. Firm performance, measured by Tobin's Q, has a positive association with leverage ratio while that has a negative relation to outside director ratio. This suggests that there may be a room for reforming corporate governance in Korea. Specifically it is necessary to enhance the independence of the outside directors.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.83-105
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• 2017

I tried to analyze export relation of influence in Chinese H beam(common steel), Hot Rolled Steel(common steel), Plate(common steel) which could be influenced immediately by China's cancellation of the export rebate of value added tax in 2010 through the statistic methods such as cointegration, Granger causality, impulse response and variance decomposition. In the first period they mutually influenced each other in export to Korea but in the second period, this relation of influence was lessoned. Due to production expansion of Hot Rolled Steel(common steel), Plate(common steel) in Korea, the change of import trend, the market change of steel users' industries and China's expedient export of boron steel to Korea, mutual influence among these products was greatly declined. Ever since Hyundai Steel's production expansion involving blast furnace facilities, there is need for the industry to concentrate on developing new markets for its facilities' output in Korea. Therefore, Korea's steel industry desperately needs strength of de-jure standards such as unique quality standards and related certifications, efficient distribution management, as well as export promotion strategy through its global trading network to effectively address its structural supply-demand imbalances.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.416-427
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• 2018

As the loan size of real estate PF is huge, its market ripple effect gets bigger when overdue occurs. Accordingly, the management of the delinquency rate and macroeconomic analysis are required. As the preceding research mainly proceeded with microeconomic analysis through the real estate PF data of individual banks to evaluate importance of list or analyzed core factors for delinquency, it lacked research on comprehensive real estate PF size. In order to overcome the limitations of such data, this research studied real estate PF delinquency rate of the entire market and effect relationship by the size. The research utilized the size of real estate PF loans, money supply, interest rate, consumer price index(CPI), and GDP data. Also, it applied the first model of VECM as linear relationship between at least two or more variables, following the result of co-integration test. As a result of Granger-causality test, the real estate PF loans delinquency rate is influenced by their loan size, and as a result of impulse response analysis, the interest rate is shown to be affecting delinquency rate the most. Interest rate could risesomeday and aggravate the delinquency rate of real estate PF. Also, risk exposure could be serious as the loan size increases.Therefore, the management of real estate PF delinquency rate requires continuous monitoring, tracking and observing issued loans from a macro point of view. The plans to prevent delinquency will be necessary.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.63-72
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• 2018

Purpose - This work analyzes, in detail, the specification of vector error correction model (VECM) and thus examines the relationships and impact among seven economic variables for USA - balance on current account (BCA), index of stock (STOCK), gross domestic product (GDP), housing price indices (HOUSING), a measure of the money supply that includes total currency as well as large time deposits, institutional money market funds, short-term repurchase agreements and other larger liquid assets (M3), real rate of interest (IR_REAL) and household credits (LOAN). In particular, we search for the main explanatory variables that have an effect on stock and real estate market, respectively and investigate the causal and dynamic associations between them. Research design, data, and methodology - We perform the time series vector error correction model to infer the dynamic relationships among seven variables above. This work employs the conventional augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root techniques to test for stationarity among seven variables under consideration, and Johansen cointegration test to specify the order or the number of cointegration relationship. Granger causality test is exploited to inspect for causal relationship and, at the same time, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis are checked for both short-run and long-run association among the seven variables by EViews 9.0. The underlying model was analyzed by using 108 realizations from Q1 1990 to Q4 2016 for USA. Results - The results show that all the seven variables for USA have one unit root and they are cointegrated with at most five and three cointegrating equation for USA. The vector error correction model expresses a long-run relationship among variables. Both IR_REAL and M3 may influence real estate market, and GDP does stock market in USA. On the other hand, GDP, IR_REAL, M3, STOCK and LOAN may be considered as causal factors to affect real estate market. Conclusions - The findings indicate that both stock market and real estate market can be modelled as vector error correction specification for USA. In addition, we can detect causal relationships among variables and compare dynamic differences between countries in terms of stock market and real estate market.

• Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.29-61
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• 2016

This paper explains the one of the most problematic factor in the society that leads to social inequality - increase in non-regular work. Theoretically, this expansion of non-regular work can be explained by technologies that are designed to save the labor force, especially since corporations in Korea have strategies to replace the regular workers with temporary workers, to save money. OECD also noted that Korea's income inequality is pretty high in ranking when compared with the rest of the OECD members, and says that globalization and technological innovation are the factors of this problem. To refine the argument, this study also looks at relationship between development made in sciences - which can be stated as a proxy variable to look at the advances made in technology - and expansion of temporary work force by using VAR methodology. Based on the results of this analysis in the future temporary/regular workers ratio started with decline, then turn to rise. These temporary/regular workers ratio sustained growth prediction shows that the expansion of the temporary expansion contributes to instability and social inequality in the labor market and technological change are interrelated.

• Informatization Policy
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.20-35
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• 2019

We empirically analyze the effects of psychological factors, such as the fear of parenting, on fertility rates. An index is calculated based on the share of negative news articles on child care in all social articles from 2000 to 2018. The analysis result shows that as the index increases, the fertility rate after three years falls. This result is repeated in the correlation analysis, simple regression, and VAR analysis. According to Granger causality analysis, it is found that the relation between the index and the fertility rate after three years is not just a simple correlation but a causal relationship. There are differences among age groups. The fertility rate of women in their 20s and 30s shows a significant response to the index, but that of the 40s does not. The index affects the birthrate of first child, but do not affect the birthrate of second or more children. These results are consistent with the intuition that younger women are more likely to be affected by the negative articles about parenting, but not to those who have already experienced childbirth. This study is meaningful in that a significant index for predicting social phenomena is extracted beyond the limited use of news big data such as a simple keyword mention volume monitoring. Also, this big data-based index is a 3-year leading indicator for fertility, which provides the advantage of providing information that helps early detection.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.304-316
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• 2020

Laos is rich in natural resources but lacks the capital to develop them. Partly alleviating the shortage is FDI from neighboring countries, especially Thailand. Not only does this contribute to directly increasing GDP by increasing effective demand, it also has an additional GDP increase effect by expanding Laos' production capacity. Laos' exports mostly consist of mineral resources and electricity. This, too, contributes to an increase in GDP by increasing the effective demand. Thailand accounts for more than 40 percent of Laos' exports. This paper tries to confirm the economic impact on Laos in Thailand through a econometric analysis of Laos' GDP, Laos' exports to Thailand and Thailand's FDI to Laos. It turns out that economic ties with Thailand, including exports to Thailand and Thailand's FDI, play a very important role in Laos' economic growth. Laos recently recorded relatively robust economic growth, but its driving force is weak. That's because Laos' growth engines are very limited and have no resilience to external shocks. Moreover, economic growth has not been linked to an increase in employment because the economy is not diversified and growth in the hydroelectric power sector does not lead to growth in other sectors. Given this, Laos needs to actively take advantage of its geographical proximity to Thailand. It is necessary to create a more active environment for the inflow of FDI in Thailand, to foster resource-based and labor-based manufacturing to take advantage of the Thai market.

• Korea Real Estate Review
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.39-52
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• 2014

This study examines the degree of global co-movement & spillover effect among the housing price of ten major countries of OECD including Korea, based on the 3 hypothesis. The data used in this study is quarterly house price index of OECD countries from 1975 to 2012. VAR model is used to analyze the co-movement, and Granger causality methodology is used for the analysis of Spillover Effect. It is found that entire period of study is that the global house prices showed the co-movement, but the coefficient was weak. Since 2008 global financial crisis, the co-movement increased significantly and the adjusted R-square of this model increased 78% compared to the entire period (1975-2012). In general, all hypotheses in this study were significant, and the common shock hypothesis were most significant. In case of Korea, the degree of co-movement was weak compared to the other countries and spillover effect was independent since 2008.