• Title/Summary/Keyword: Granger Causality

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Analysis on the Pattern of Inbound and Outbound Tourism and Their Receipts and Expenditures in Korea (우리나라 내외국인 관광규모 및 경비지출 형태 분석)

  • Rhee, Hyun-Jae
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.12 no.10
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    • pp.395-407
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    • 2012
  • The aim of this study is to investigate the pattern of inbound and outbound tourism and their receipts and expenditures in Korea, and wishes to suggest a policy implication. The finding in this research indicates that inbound tourism is mainly influenced by a relative income, while the receipts are effected not only by a scale of tourism, relative price, relative income, but also by the exchange rate. Outbound tourism and the expenditures are tentatively determined by a set of information which is synthetically made up by an economic factors. To this end, it could be concluded that tourism policy should be elaborately established to take of the inbound tourism, and appropriately designed information networking system for tourism would be helpful to assist the outbound tourism.

Long Run Relationship Between Population and Yield Revisited: An Analysis of Malthusian Regime (맬서스 국면에 의한 인구와 산출량의 장기적 관계 분석)

  • Rhee, Hyun-Jae
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.142-155
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    • 2020
  • This study re-evaluated Malthusian regime which signifies a negative relationship between population and income by employing the trend for the population and the income of the world and panel analysis during 1820-2006 periods. Empirical evidence suggested that Malthusian regime was existed during 1900-1994 periods in the world economy. Even each country had experienced such regime in its own economic growth path. However, the population drastically decreased and output upsurged since 1995, Malthusian regime had not been revealed any more since then. Such phenomenon is mainly resulted from the output is rather increased geometrically when the population is decreased because of a social reason such as decreasing in fertility rate. In addition to this, the population contributes to the production not by a quantity but a quality which is embodied by capital. Particularly, when the population which is associated with demand side is counted, the population is said to be evolved continuously in economy.

Dynamic Linkages : Stock Markets, Construction Industries, and Construction Firms (한국 건설주가의 동태적 국내외 연계성에 관한 실증분석)

  • You, Tae-Woo;Jang, Won-Ki
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.125-162
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    • 2003
  • This paper investigates the short- and long- run relationship among Korean, U.S. and Japanese construction indices. We conducted the Johansen's cointegration tests on the hypotheses that the construction indices of three countries we related in the long-run as well as in the short-run. The test results show that there exists no long-run relationship among three countrie's construction indices. In addition, the cointegrating relation did not exist for three countrie's stock market indices and five major Korean construction firms. It fumed out that the U.S. indices Granger-causes Japanese and Korean indices. This finding implies that there may exist international diversification benefit through forming a portfolio from these indices.

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A study on the information effect of tracking error affecting the sector ETF pricing (산업별 ETF의 가격결정에 영향을 미치는 추적오차의 정보효과에 관한 연구)

  • Byun, Young Tae;Lee, Sang Goo
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.81-89
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the information effect about the pricing using the ETF price, the benchmark index, and the total tracking error between the ETF price and the benchmark index on the index ETF market and sector ETF markets. Furthermore, the total tracking error is distinguished between the market tracking error and the NAV tracking error. Summary of this study are as follows: First, While KODEX200 don't have impact factors on the price, the most sectors of ETF have the factors affecting the pricing decision. They are the day before the total tracking error or market tracking error. Second, for the ETF price of the most industry, we find that the day before the market tracking error have the price discovery function because it is a negative(-) coefficients. But NAV tracking error could not find such a feature. Finally, the sector ETF price of energy chemical, construction, IT, and semiconductor industries affected of the day before positive(+) impact by the benchmark index price.

The Impact of Regional Economic Growth on Intraregional Disparities in Korea (지역경제 성장에 따른 지역 내부의 경제적 격차 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Ju-Han;Kim, Donghyun
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2020
  • The aims of this study to identify the relationship between regional economic growth and intraregional regional disparities. The 16 metropolitan area, the Capital region and the southeastern region of Korea were put in the spatial scope and the time range from 2005 to 2016. Regional gross domestic product data were used to show regional growth and intraregional disparity. Panel data for each spatial unit were established, panel unit root test and panel cointegration test were conducted to check the stability of the data. The DOLS method was used to identify relationship between regional economic growth and intraregional disparity, and the VECM model and Granger causality test was conducted to verify causality. The result of analysis of 16 metropolitan area units showed that the intraregional disparity increases as regional economic growth progresses. When the regional gross domestic product increased by 1%, the intraregional disparity increased by 1.258%, and there are short-term and long-term causality. Both the Capital region and the southeastern region had a mutual relationship between regional economic growth and intraregional disparity, but the disparity in the Capital region showed an increase and the southeastern region showed a decrease. The results of this study show that the regional disparity is increasing nationwide, but the Capital region and the southeastern region showed different stages of growth.

A Study in Bitcoin Volatility through Economic Factors (경제적 요인으로 살펴본 비트코인의 변동성에 관한 연구)

  • Son, JongHyeok;Kim, JeongYeon
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.109-118
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    • 2019
  • As a result of the United States (U.S) -China trade conflict, the recent instability of the stock market has led many people to invest in Bitcoin, a commodity that many previous studies have interpreted as a safe asset. However, recent Bitcoin market price fluctuations suggest that the asset's stability stems from speculative purchasing trends. Therefore, classifying the characteristics of Bitcoin assets can be an important reference point in analyzing relevant accounting information. To determine whether Bitcoin is a safe asset, this study analyzed the correlation between Bitcoin and economic indicators to verify whether gold and Bitcoin responded similarly in time series analyses. These show that the regression explanatory power between the price of gold and bitcoin is low, thus no relation between the two assets could be drawn. Additionally, the Granger causality analyses of six individual economic variables and Bitcoin did not establish any notable causality. This can be interpreted that short-term price fluctuations have a significant impact on the nature of Bitcoin as an asset.

Analysis of the Relationship between House Price, Income Inequality and Macroeconomic Variables (주택가격, 소득불평등 및 거시경제변수간의 관계분석)

  • Kwon, Sun-Hee;Hyun, Seong-Min
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzed the relationship between housing price, purchase price, Gini coefficient, interest rate, and the employment, considering that the change in housing price was an important factor influencing macroeconomic variables and income inequality. The panel VAR model was constructed considering the panel data, and the Granger causality, Impulse response and Variance dispersion analysis were performed. As a result, when compared to before and after the global financial crisis, it was shown that the rent price had an effect on income inequality, but in the following period, both the rent price and the selling price affected the income inequality. And that it has a large impact on inequality. In addition, the causality between income inequality and employment rate, interest rate, and tax rate was confirmed. Therefore, it is expected that it will be a desirable policy to mitigate income inequality considering the influence of policy variables for economic activation including government real estate policy.

Volatility Spillover Effects between BDI with CCFI and SCFI Shipping Freight Indices (BDI와 CCFI 및 BDI와 SCFI 운임지수 사이의 변동성 파급 효과)

  • Meng-Hua Li;Sok-Tae Kim
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.127-163
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    • 2023
  • The objective of this study is to investigate the volatility spillover effects among BDI, CCFI and SCFI. This paper will divide the empirical analysis section into two periods to analyze and compare the differences in volatility spillover effect between shipping freight indices before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 separately. First, in order to compare the mean spillover impact and index lead-lag correlations in BDI and CCFI indices, along with BDI and SCFI indices before and after COVID-19, the co-integration analysis and the test of Granger causality built on the VAR model were utilized. Second, the impulse response and variance decomposition are employed in this work to investigate how the shipping freight index responds to shocks experienced by itself and other freight indices in a short period. Before the COVID-19 epidemic, the results demonstrated that the BDI freight index is the Granger cause of the variable CCFI freight index. But the BDI and CCFI freight indices have no apparent lead-lag relationships after COVID-19, and this empirical result echoes the cointegration test result. After the COVID-19 epidemic, the SCFI index leads the BDI index. This study employs the VAR-BEKK-GARCH joint model to explore the volatility spillover results between dry bulk and container transport markets before and after COVID-19. The empirical results demonstrate that after COVID-19, fluctuations in the BDI index still affect the CCFI index in the maritime market. However, there is no proof of a volatility spillover relationship between the BDI and SCFI after the COVID-19 epidemic. This study will provide an insight into the volatility relationship among BDI, CCFI and SCFI before and after the the COVID-19 epidemic occurred.

기업의 R&D 구조변화와 정부정책 방향에 대한 소고

  • 송종국;서환주
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.79-97
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    • 2003
  • R&D expenditure of Korean firms has been increasing drastically since 1980 and occupied 84% of total R&D expenditure in 1994. After 1994, however, the growth rate of industry R&D expenditure has dropped below single digit. R&D concentration rate of upper 20 companies declined from 61.9% in 1999 to 49.8% in 2001. The technology trade balance has diverged by 2.8 billion dollars in 2000 compared to around 0.3 billion dollars in 1985. We find several reasons on declining the industry R&D growth rate in Korea. First, we carefully say there might be an crowding out effect in increasing government R&D investment from Granger causality test between industry R&D and government R&D. Second, the decreasing benefit of tax credit since 1992 on industry R&D expenditure has caused the decrease of industry R&D growth rate. Third, the type of R&D cost becomes to similar to matured countries type of cost, which means the portion of capital expenditure has been decreased since late of 1980s. Therefore, industry R&D growth rate gets to saturation point. We draw several policy implications from the changing structure of business R&D of Korean company. Firstly, to stimulate industry R&D investment Korean government needs to strengthen tax credit policy. Secondly, to induce foreign direct investment Korean government needs to establish technology infrastructures and high quality of manpower. To utilize foreign technology resources Korean government need to introduce global R&D program executed by foreign scientist as an Project Leader.

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An Analysis of Changes in Catch Amount of Offshore and Coastal Fisheries by Climate Change in Korea (기후변화에 따른 한국 연근해 어업생산량 변화 분석)

  • Eom, Ki-Hyuk;Kim, Hong-Sik;Han, In-Seong;Kim, Do-Hoon
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 2015
  • This study aimed to analyze the relationship between sea surface temperature as a climatic element and catch amount of offshore and coastal fisheries in Korea using annual time series data from 1970 to 2013. It also tried to predict the future changes in catch amount of fisheries by climate change. Time series data on variables were estimated to be non-stationary from unit root tests, but one long-term equilibrium relation between variables was found from a cointegration test. The result of Granger causality test indicated that the sea surface temperature would cause directly changes in catch amount of offshore and coastal fisheries. The result of regression analysis on sea surface temperature and catch amount showed that the sea surface temperature would have negative impacts on the catch amount of offshore and coastal fisheries. Therefore, if the sea surface temperature would increase, all other things including the current level of fishing effort being equal, the catch amount of offshore and coastal fisheries was predicted to decrease.