• Title/Summary/Keyword: Government Debt

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Determinants of Vietnam Government Bond Yield Volatility: A GARCH Approach

  • TRINH, Quoc Trung;NGUYEN, Anh Phong;NGUYEN, Hoang Anh;NGO, Phu Thanh
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.7
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2020
  • This empirical research aims to identify the relationship between fiscal and financial macroeconomic fundamentals and the volatility of government bonds' borrowing cost in an emerging country - Vietnam. The study covers the period from July 2006 to December 2019 and it is based on a sample of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year government bonds, which represent short-term, medium-term and long-term sovereign bonds in Vietnam, respectively. The Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and its derivatives such as EGARCH and TGARCH are applied on monthly dataset to examine and suggest a significant effect of fiscal and financial determinants of bond yield volatility. The findings of this study indicate that the variation of Vietnam government bond yields is in compliance with the theories of term structure of interest rate. The results also show that a proportion of the variation in the yields on Vietnam government bonds is attributed to the interest rate itself in the previous period, base rate, foreign interest rate, return of the stock market, fiscal deficit, public debt, and current account balance. Our results could be helpful in the macroeconomic policy formulation for policy-makers and in the investment practice for investors regarding the prediction of bond yield volatility.

Local Government Fiscal Consolidation Measures-Focusing on Cheonan- (지방정부 재정건전화 방안-천안시를 중심으로-)

  • Park, Jong Gwan
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.10
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    • pp.112-123
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    • 2014
  • This Study aims to establish better sound fiscal plan by investigating perception of local government officials. Local government fiscal consolidation is affected by a combination of factors, including social, economic, demographic, political financial health of local governments. We derived the financial situation of the government-related indicators, financial health-related indicators, the indicators to improve the financial health on the basis of this study are an existing discussion. To ensure the financial soundness of the Cheonan, it is necessary to increase the efficiency of financial management including financial monitoring and control devices provided the locals, investment screening analysis system to enable it. In addition, fiscal controls should be strengthened in order to effectively autonomous government debt management. You must cuts expense of local government to prepare for expansion of local government finance, it is necessary to realize that the fee rates. It should be made through a blend of autonomy and control in the central government, network of local government and the development of local financial operations. You should also to be distributed to the residents welfare and community development funds are invested substantially to establish a systematic planning, resource allocation, evaluation, and reflux system.

Determinants Affecting Profitability of Firms: A Study of Oil and Gas Industry in Vietnam

  • BUI, Men Thi;NGUYEN, Hieu Minh
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.599-608
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    • 2021
  • The oil and gas industry is widely known as a vital engine of Vietnam development, stimulating researchers to examine the association of various factors with this industry. The aim of this study is to identify the relationship between different variables affecting profitability of the firms in the oil and gas sector in Vietnam. The total of 203 samples were collected from 29 companies listed on Vietnam Stock Market during a 6-year period from 2012 to 2018. Informed by prior research, this investigation employs financial leverage (FL), government ownership (GOV), dividend payout (DIV), fixed assets to total assets (FA) and exchange rate (EXR) as independent variables, while the profit is described by return-on-assets (ROA). The study results show that there are four factors that have an impact on ROA, namely, leverage, government ownership, dividend, and exchange rate. Whereas leverage and exchange rate have negative influence on ROA, government ownership and dividend payment have a positive effect. The findings of this study suggest that high debt ratio in capital structure and the negative effect of exchange rate on their companies' efficiency can adversely affect the profit of enterprises. Also, plausible extent of government ownership and dividend payment could also be considered to optimize corporate performance.

Global Project Finance Trends and Commercial Risk Analysis (글로벌 프로젝트 파이낸스 최근 동향 및 상업위험 분석)

  • Kim, Sang Man
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.61
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    • pp.273-302
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    • 2014
  • Project finance ("PF") is a method of raising long-term debt financing based on lending against the cash flow generated by the project alone. Project finance is a nonrecourse or limited recourse financing structure against the sponsors(or the investors). The debt terms in a project finance are not based on the creditor's credit support or on the value of the assets of the project. Lenders rely on the future cash flow to be generated by the project for debt repayment and interest, rather than the value of the project or the credit ratings of the sponsors. The non-recourse or limited recourse financing usually prompt potential project finance lenders to assess carefully all possible risks that might arise in a project to ensure that those risks are mitigated and controlled. In this respect, project finance is a opposite financing method of corporate finance. Project finance has rapidly grown over the last 20 years due to the worldwide process of privatization of public sector and development of natural resources. Global project finance volume reached the record USD 406.5 billion in 2011. In 2012, however, Global project finance volume dropped 6% to USD 382.3 billion. Infrastructure overtook Energy to lead all sectors with USD 113.6 billion. It is generally recognized that there are more and higher risks in project finance compared with corporate finance. Project finance is exposed to commercial risks as well as political risks. The main commercial risks are completion risks, environmental risks, operating risks, input supply risks, revenue risks, etc, and the main political risks are currency convertibility and transfer risks, expropriation risks, war and civil disturbance risks, risks of breach of government concession agreement, etc. Completion risks include permits risks, risks relating to the EPC Contractor, construction cost overrun, delay in completion, inadequate performance on completion, etc.

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The research about the public finance of Urban - focus the Taejeon Metro - (도시철도운영기관의 재정계획 모델 연구 - 대전광역시도시철도공사를 중심으로 -)

  • Jung, Ye-Seoung;Kim, Moon-Hong
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.1683-1693
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    • 2007
  • Urban has been operating Korail and the local autonomous entity in Korea. Over 70 LRTs will be constructed in the future, but it is hard to manage them due to structural deficit from construction debt, so Public finance plays a very important role in order to overcome a deficit. Therefore, it is necessary to plan detailed analysis and planned system about the expenditure of the amount which is borrowed from country and local government and business income from railroad companies like government grants, PSO. This research wishes to grasp the problem and present model about reasonable and efficient financial program, analyzing about increasing import and expenses of Urban.

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A Study on the Effective Handling of Food Garbage in Foodservice Industry (외식산업 음식물쓰레기의 효율적인 처리방안에 관한 연구)

  • 홍기운;김숙희
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.4
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    • pp.455-479
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    • 1998
  • The handling of food garbage should be effectively accomplished to strengthen national competitive power, conserve the environment and improve the public health. But the study of this subject left much to be desired. So we studied about present situation, specific character and decreasing method of food garbage and practical application of Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point(HACCP) system to handling of food garbage. Actually eight trillion won per year which corresponds to the one fifth of the debt from international monetary found(IMF) as these day's exchange rate was wasted by the form of food garbage, so the government should have willing of support the revenue source of investment to develop and accomplish the effective handling of food garbage. National public relations(P.R.) into improvement of eating and drinking culture and enlightenment of environment movement will be needed. Under the organic cooperation of industrial, academic, government circles, active studies should be accomplished. we hope this study can be used as the basal material of filed of handling of food garbage.

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Current Status and Policies for Improvement of Korean Water works Based on the Analyis of Revenue and Operation Costs (최근 세입·세출 분석을 통한 우리나라 수도사업의 현황 및 개선방안)

  • Jeong, Tae-Un;Yang, Seung-Heun;Kim, Jin-Min;Choi, Suing-Il
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.637-645
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    • 2009
  • To understand the financial situation of waterworks, the revenue and operation cost from 1996 have been analyzed. The budget of waterworks was 3,775 billion won in 1996 and grew up to 5,774 billion won in 2007. The budget has grown about 1.53 times during 11 years. Based on 2007, total cost for supplying water, rehabilitating old facilities and returning debt and its interest was 4146 billion won. The cost was recovered by 2,825 billion won of water revenue, 827 billion won of various fees revenue, 571 billion won of financial grant and 89 billion won of loan. Until 2007, the 15.3% of operation cost for waterworks was covered by government grant and loan. The renovation cost for old non-efficient facilities was 1,356 billion won in 1996 and was 1,486 billion won in 2007. The renovation cost was not increased remarkably during 10 years. Since the total operation cost was increased about 1.5 times, the percentage for renovating old facilities was decreased from 36% to 25.7%. This trend need to be alerted because the renovation has been slow down when the facilities for water supply need more rehabilitation.

Bank Restructuring and Financial Performance: A Case Study of Commercial Banks in Vietnam

  • DUONG, Tam Thanh Nguyen;NGUYEN, Hoa Quynh
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.10
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    • pp.327-339
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    • 2021
  • This study examines the impact of bank restructuring on the financial performance of commercial banks in Vietnam. The data for this study was obtained from the audited financial statements of 30 Vietnamese commercial banks from 2007 to 2019. Multiple regression analysis was used for investigation. Financial performance, as evaluated by ROAA, ROEA, and NIM, is the dependent variable. Financial restructuring, ownership restructuring, and operational restructuring are the independent variables. Pooled least squares (Pooled OLS), fixed effects model (FEM), random effects model (REM), and system generalized moment regression model (System GMM) are the estimate methods used to increase the accuracy of the regression coefficient. The research results show that the variables of financial restructuring activities such as government intervention and the ratio of equity to total assets; variables of ownership restructuring such as capital adequacy ratio, privatization of state-owned commercial banks, mergers, and acquisitions; variables of operational restructuring such as employees, branches, the cost to total assets; GDP variables and the second restructuring period have a positive impact on financial performance. Variables such as debt-to-capital ratio, bad debt ratio, state ownership ratio, expense-income ratio, and inflation have a negative effect on financial performance.

On the Role of Projected FDI Inflows in Shaping Institutions: The Longer-Term Plan for Post-Pandemic Investment Reboot

  • Gao, Xiang;Gu, Zhenhua;Koedijk, Kees G.
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.441-468
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    • 2020
  • Capital inflows have a strong presence that influences destination countries' development of institutions, which can in turn help resuscitate a stopped economy and re-attract capital that was lost during crises such as the recent public health crisis. While the previous literature emphasizes the mechanism that foreign investors press or even threaten the local government for change, this paper explores empirically whether institutional improvement can be achieved through the channel that host countries voluntarily reform institutions in anticipation of potential investments predicted by the exogenous geographical and cultural characteristics of the recipient countries. Given that countries with better institutional quality can accumulate larger FDI stocks, we still find that the need for more FDI, in contrast to FPI and debt, gives higher incentives to host countries to strategically improve their institutions before seeking capital overseas. Moreover, the predicted FDI exerts more prominent impacts on institutions on constraining elite than those involved in launching a business, enforcing contracts, and protecting properties. The results imply that a long-run plan for upgrading elite constraint institutions is crucial for a post-pandemic FDI reboot.

Topic Modeling of Korean Newspaper Articles on Aging via Latent Dirichlet Allocation

  • Lee, So Chung
    • Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.4-22
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to explore the structure of social discourse on aging in Korea by analyzing newspaper articles on aging. The analysis is composed of three steps: first, data collection and preprocessing; second, identifying the latent topics; and third, observing yearly dynamics of topics. In total, 1,472 newspaper articles that included the word "aging" within the title were collected from 10 major newspapers between 2006 and 2019. The underlying topic structure was analyzed using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), a topic modeling method widely adopted by text mining academics and researchers. Seven latent topics were generated from the LDA model, defined as social issues, death, private insurance, economic growth, national debt, labor market innovation, and income security. The topic loadings demonstrated a clear increase in public interest on topics such as national debt and labor market innovation in recent years. This study concludes that media discourse on aging has shifted towards more productivity and efficiency related issues, requiring older people to be productive citizens. Such subjectivation connotes a decreased role of the government and society by shifting the responsibility to individuals not being able to adapt successfully as productive citizens within the labor market.