• Analyses & Alternatives
• /
• v.7 no.3
• /
• pp.181-230
• /
• 2023

Evaluating the empirical validity of Modern Monetary Theory, this study implements panel cointegration analysis on annual panel data (2000-2022) of OECD countries. Specifically, the sample countries are divided into groups based on the presence of their own sovereign currencies, and for each group, the long-run equilibrium relation (cointegration) between the ratio of public debt or fiscal deficit and government bond rates is tested and estimated. Main findings are as follows: applying the pooled mean-group estimation for panel cointegration, it is found that both the ratios of public debt and fiscal deficit have significantly positive long-run correlation with government bond rates in countries without sovereign currency such as the Euro-zone or fixed exchange rate regime countries. However, in countries with sovereign currency such as non-Euro-zone or floating exchange rate regime countries, the long-run correlation is either negative or not statistically significant. Particularly, in countries without sovereign currency, the ratio of public debt has significantly positive correlation with the real government bond rates in the short run as well as the long run. These results are consistent with the prediction of Modern Monetary Theory, thus providing a supporting evidence for the empirical validity of the theory.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.18 no.3
• /
• pp.472-485
• /
• 2018

The purpose of this study is to analyze debt zeroing policy process of Yong-in city based on the Kingdon's Multiple Stream Framework in order to contribute to strengthening financial capacity and competitiveness of local governments. This study focused on the Yong-in case because the city had a local debt of about KRW 800 billion as of 2012, but it completed the debt repayment in early 2017. The results are as follows. First, policy problem streams are the perception of Yongin City's debt indicator, the failure of the LRT project, and the failure of sale of buildinglots of Yukbuk district. Second, in the political stream, there have been the election of new governors, cooperation of local administration and citizens like budget cut. Third, policy alternative streams are the reduction of large-scale investment projects, the expansion of revenues through the sale of idle shared properties, the increase of tax revenues, and the activation of light rail. As the each streams flowed independently, the window of policy change opened by the revitalization of the real estate market and the sale of buildinglots of Yukbuk distric and combined with other policy factors such as the activation of the light rail. In this process, the role of the policy entrepreneurs such as negotiation and persuasion of the related institutions influenced achieving tight fiscal policy. As a result of this policy output, Yongin City achieved zero debt. This study suggests that it is necessary not only the importance of the role of policy entrepreneurs but also of the administrative and citizen cooperation and the institutional complement such as a large scale of the investment review system.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.19 no.2
• /
• pp.96-106
• /
• 2018

The government adopted activation policy of real estate to overcome low economic growth rate. Real estate activation plan adopted by the government raised credit limit by lowering the regulation, and reduced real estate investment cost by reducing the base rate. Also, delayed transfer tax on multi-house owner to activate real estate investment and resolved purchase right resale. Relief of real estate regulate caused increase of housing sales and price increase, and the real estate market changed to overheating aspect such as premium upon completion of lot sale in a short time. Such market atmosphere greatly increased household debs as owners own houses based on 'financial debt' instead of their income. Since 2017, real estate policy was reinforced to reduce household debts and lending rate was raised due to rise of base rate, accordingly, burden of household debt is expected to increase. This research suggested a plan for the Financial Supervisory Service to efficiently manage the financial world by analyzing the cause and problem of household debs.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.8
• /
• pp.705-714
• /
• 2020

This study aims to investigate the main factors that affected the government health expenditures in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait), during the period from 2005 to 2019. The study employs a panel data technique in order to monitor the pooled determinant variables of healthcare expenditures in these countries. The study's results indicate, by using FMOLS approach for panel data, that the average healthcare expenditures per capita in GCC countries have a positive and a significant relationship with the government revenues, the size of the population, and the governments' public debt. The positive and the significant relationships of governments' public debt may be explained even if the governments of the GCC countries suffer from a budget deficit; the GCC countries continue to increase the healthcare expenditure. The study suggests that the policymakers of the GCC countries must take into consideration those variables when they develop their healthcare policies. Also, the GCC countries urgently need to have high levels of foreign exchange reserves to maintain the expected level of spending on the healthcare sector, because their public revenues depend mainly on the oil revenues, which are fluctuating continuously.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.9
• /
• pp.329-340
• /
• 2020

This study investigates the effect of capital structure on the financial performance of pharmaceutical enterprises which are listing on Vietnam's stock market. The study builds the regression using ROE as dependent variable and four independent variables, including self-financing, financial leverage, long-term asset and debt to assets ratios. In addition, we use other variables as controlling ones, such as firm size, fixed asset rate and growth. We collect data for the period from 2015 to 2019 of all 30 pharmaceutical enterprises which are currently listing on Vietnam's stock market. The least square regression (OLS) is used to test the effect of capital structure to the firms' financial performance. The analysis results show that the financial leverage ratio (LR), long-term asset ratio (LAR) and debt-to-assets ratio (DR) have positive relationship with firm performance, meanwhile the self-financing (E/C) affects negatively to the return on equity (ROE). Upon the findings we suggest that the Vietnamese government should focus on stabilizing macro environment to create favorable environment for enterprises. And the pharmaceutical enterprises should build more reasonable capital structure with higher debt proportion than equity, diversifying loan mobilization channels such as issuing long-term bonds. Additionally, the firms should expand the scale appropriately to maintain development and ability to pay debts.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.10
• /
• pp.1-10
• /
• 2021

This paper attempts to investigate the determinants of capital structure of Vietnamese firms and also shed light on some of the factors of the modern theory of capital structure which is relevant for explaining the capital structure in advanced countries which are also relevant in the context of Vietnam. Using panel data from more than 1000 Vietnamese listed enterprises census 2017-2020, the paper finds that leverage ratio of Vietnamese firms is significantly related to probability. The firms have high level of fixed assets which they use as collateral, resulting in higher debt ratio, which is in line with the pecking order theory. The result also confirm that highly targeted debt ratio is positively correlated with the industry characteristics (using real estate firms as a benchmark), in which firm operates. Furthermore, consistent with the trade-off hypothesis, the leverage ratio is positively affected by non - debt tax shield. The result confirms that a large number of companies are state - owned, will have an insignificant impact of firm's size (as reverse proxy for bankruptcy cost) on leverage ratio. We also find that there is no distinction between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises due to strict adherence to the rules set by the Vietnamese government. Distinct from other countries, corporate income tax has slight impact on capital structure in Vietnamese firms.

• Proceeding of Spring/Autumn Annual Conference of KHA
• /
• 2011.04a
• /
• pp.296-300
• /
• 2011

It's well known that housing is one of the largest holdings in household wealth and at the same time the majority of households highly concentrate on it for their wealth accumulation. Coupled with a low interest rate and increasing housing price, the rationale is conspicuous and the propensity to debt-financed consumption becomes strengthened. This research was to examine the risk of home financing. In doing so, the study utilized several secondary data to identify the characteristics of households who finance loans for home buying in three regions of the nation - so-called Bubble 7, Seoul Metropolitan Area, and others. Based on the 2009 KB survey, the major findings were as follows: the majority of the studied households in Seoul Metropolitan Area who owned a house lived in rental housing, housing accounted for 89% of the household wealth, and home loans taken on were a ballon payment amortized for a short-term period (5 years) with an adjustable interest rate. In addition, the payment method most of the households depend on is income. The financing mechanism fueled debt load of the households, and further they are financially very vulnerable to such factors as increase in interest rate, unemployment and market downturn. In the absence of understanding the financial system, the consumption behavior leads to house-poor, so that financial accountability and ethics are addressed while the intervention of the government in home financing system should be more cautious but stimulate financial soundness in household wealth accumulation.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.26 no.1
• /
• pp.71-104
• /
• 2004

This paper explores the empirical performances of the workout companies with special interests in the effectiveness of corporate reorganizing tools on their revitalization. In the empirical analysis it considers the criteria of success or failure in restructuring from both creditors' and debtors' perspectives. The key results are summarized as follows. First, the initial conditions on the debt structure of the workout companies are significantly related to the revitalization from both creditors' and debtors' point of view. Second, the debt restructuring instruments are insignificant in the success of corporate turnarounds while the debt-to-equity conversion has been a relatively effective tool. Third, the self-restructuring efforts, employment downsizing and governance reshuffling do not affect the performances significantly. The higher importance of initial conditions than corporate restructuring efforts may imply that Korean corporate workouts serve better to the needs of creditor financial institutions which are to maximize debt recovery and of the government which is to overcome financial crisis.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
• /
• v.14 no.2
• /
• pp.51-61
• /
• 2023

Purpose - Since COVID-19, the government's expansion of liquidity to stimulate the economy has resulted in an increase in private debt and an increase in asset prices of such as real estate and stocks. The recent sharp rise of the US Federal fund rate and tapering by the Fed have led to a fast rise in domestic interest rates, putting a heavy burden on the Korean economy, where the level of household debt is very high. Excessive household debt might have negative effects on the economy, such as shrinking consumption, economic recession, and deepening economic inequality. Therefore, now more than ever, it is necessary to identify the causes of the increase in household debt. Design/methodology/approach - Main methodology is regression analysis. Dependent variable is household loans from depository institutions. Independent variables are consumer price index, unemployment rate, household loan interest rate, housing sales price index, and composite stock price index. The sample periods are from 2017 to May 2022, comprising 72 months of data. The comparative analysis period before and after COVID-19 is from January 2017 to December 2019 for the pre-COVID-19 period, and from Jan 2020 to December 2022 for the post-COVID-19 period. Findings - Looking at the results of the regression analysis for the entire period, it was found that increases in the consumer price index, unemployment rate, and household loan interest rates decrease household loans, while increases in the housing sales price index increase household loans. Research implications or Originality - Household loans of depository institutions are mainly made up of high-credit and high-income borrowers with good repayment ability, so the risk of the financial system is low. As household loans are closely linked to the real estate market, the risk of household loan defaults may increase if real estate prices fall sharply.

• International Area Studies Review
• /
• v.13 no.2
• /
• pp.168-188
• /
• 2009

Japanese economy suffered from a great recession for one decade between 1993 and 2002, because of the bubble bursting. Recently, a similar situation broke out in the USA and spread throughout the world. This paper investigated the effects of economic policy on the Japanese depression in order to find out how the recession, caused by financial crisis, can be reasonably removed. The analysis of documentary records indicate that there exists an optimum rate in government debt and the point in time of economic policy is decisive. Statistical studies with a VAR model and a State Space Model suggest that government expenditures affect the growth rate of national product but with a short term and it has a time lag of a half year. Income tax has a grievous negative effect on the growth rate with a long term and it works without a time lag. Therefore the increasing of taxation should be put into force very carefully. However private investment is a determinate factor for the recovery of depression.