• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.69-88
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• 2022

One of the characteristics of South Korea's economic structure is that it is highly dependent on exports. Thus, many businesses are closely related to the global economy and diplomatic situation. In addition, small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) specialized in exporting are struggling due to the spread of COVID-19. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a model to forecast exports for next year to support SMEs' export strategy and decision making. Also, this study proposed a strategy to recommend promising export countries of each item based on the forecasting model. We analyzed important variables used in previous studies such as country-specific, item-specific, and macro-economic variables and collected those variables to train our prediction model. Next, through the exploratory data analysis(EDA) it was found that exports, which is a target variable, have a highly skewed distribution. To deal with this issue and improve predictive performance, we suggest a separated learning method. In a separated learning method, the whole dataset is divided into homogeneous subgroups and a prediction algorithm is applied to each group. Thus, characteristics of each group can be more precisely trained using different input variables and algorithms. In this study, we divided the dataset into five subgroups based on the exports to decrease skewness of the target variable. After the separation, we found that each group has different characteristics in countries and goods. For example, In Group 1, most of the exporting countries are developing countries and the majority of exporting goods are low value products such as glass and prints. On the other hand, major exporting countries of South Korea such as China, USA, and Vietnam are included in Group 4 and Group 5 and most exporting goods in these groups are high value products. Then we used LightGBM(LGBM) and Exponential Moving Average(EMA) for prediction. Considering the characteristics of each group, models were built using LGBM for Group 1 to 4 and EMA for Group 5. To evaluate the performance of the model, we compare different model structures and algorithms. As a result, it was found that the separated learning model had best performance compared to other models. After the model was built, we also provided variable importance of each group using SHAP-value to add explainability of our model. Based on the prediction model, we proposed a second-stage recommendation strategy for potential export countries. In the first phase, BCG matrix was used to find Star and Question Mark markets that are expected to grow rapidly. In the second phase, we calculated scores for each country and recommendations were made according to ranking. Using this recommendation framework, potential export countries were selected and information about those countries for each item was presented. There are several implications of this study. First of all, most of the preceding studies have conducted research on the specific situation or country. However, this study use various variables and develops a machine learning model for a wide range of countries and items. Second, as to our knowledge, it is the first attempt to adopt a separated learning method for exports prediction. By separating the dataset into 5 homogeneous subgroups, we could enhance the predictive performance of the model. Also, more detailed explanation of models by group is provided using SHAP values. Lastly, this study has several practical implications. There are some platforms which serve trade information including KOTRA, but most of them are based on past data. Therefore, it is not easy for companies to predict future trends. By utilizing the model and recommendation strategy in this research, trade related services in each platform can be improved so that companies including SMEs can fully utilize the service when making strategies and decisions for exports.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.145-174
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• 2017

Recently, due to the worsening global economic recession, Korea which is a small, export-oriented economy has decreased exports and the domestic economy also continues to stagnate. Therefore, for continued growth of our economy through export growth, we need to analyze the validity of export support system such as export insurance and prepare ways to expand exports. This study is to investigate the effects of Export Insurance on the exports of SMEs as well as LEs. For this purpose, this study conducted Time Series Analysis using data such as export, export insurance acquisition, export price index, exchange rate, and coincident composite index(CCI). First, as a result of the Granger Causality Test, the exports of LEs has found to have a causal relationship with the CCI, and CCI is to have a causal relationship with the short-term export insurance record. Second, the results of VAR analysis show that the export insurance acquisition result and the export price index have a positive effect on the exports of LEs, while the short - term export insurance has a negative effect on the exports of LEs. Third, as a result of variance decomposition, the export of LEs has much more influenced for mid to long term by the short-term export insurance acquisition compared to SMEs. Fourth, short-term export insurance has a positive effect on exports of SMEs. In order to activate short-term export insurance against SMEs, it is necessary to expand support for SMEs by local governments. This study aims to suggest policy implications for establishing effective export insurance policy by analyzing the effects of export insurance on the export of SMEs as well as LEs. It is necessary to carry out a time series analysis on the export results according to the insurance acquisition results by industry to measure the export support effect of export insurance more precisely.

• Clean Technology
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.228-236
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• 2020

Korea has an economy based on manufacturing industrial fields, which produce high amounts of hazardous wastes, in spite of few landfill candidates, and a significant concern for fine airborne particulates; therefore, traditional waste management is difficult to apply in this country. Moreover, waste collection and accumulation have recently been intensified by the waste import prohibitions or regulations in developing nations, the universalization of delivery services in Korea, and the global COVID-19 crisis. This study thus presents a domestic waste management strategy that aims to address the recent issues on waste. The contents of the strategy as the main results of the study include the (1) improvement of the compatibility of the classification codes between the domestic hazardous waste and the international ones such as those of the Basel Convention; (2) consideration of the mixed hazard indices to represent toxicity from low-content components such as rare earth metals often contained in electrical and electronic equipment waste; (3) management application based on risks throughout the life cycles of waste; (4) establishment of detailed material flow information of waste by integrating the Albaro system, Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (PRTR) system, and online trade databases; (5) real-time monitoring and prediction of the waste movement or discharge using positional sensors and geographic information systems, among others; and (6) selection and implementation of optimal treatment or recycling practices through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and clean technologies.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.11 no.8
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• pp.5-14
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• 2013

Purpose - We live in a world of constant change and competition. Many airports have specific competitiveness goals and strategies for achieving and maintaining them. The global economic recession, financial crises, and rising oil prices have resulted in an increasingly important role for facility investment and renewal and the implementation of appropriate policies in ensuring the competitive advantage for airports. It is thus important to analyze the factors that enhance efficiency and productivity for an airport. This study aims to determine the efficiency levels of 20 major airports in East Asia, Europe, and North America. Further, this study also suggests suitable policies and strategies for their development. Research design, data, and methodology - This paper employs the DEA-CCR, DEA-BCC, and DEA-Malmquist production index analysis models to determine airport efficiency. The study uses data on the efficiency and productivity of the world's leading airports between 2006 and 2010. The input variables include the airport size, the number of runways, the size of passenger terminals, and the size of cargo terminals. The output variables include the annual number of passengers and the annual cargo volume. The study uses basic data from the 2010 World Airport Traffic Report (ACI). The world's top 20 airports (as rated by the ACI report) are investigated. The study uses the expanded DEA Model and the Super Efficiency Model to identify the most effective airports among the top 20. The Malmquist productivity index analysis is used to measure airport effectiveness. Results - This study analyzes longitudinal and cross-sectional data on the world's top 20 airports covering 2006 to 2010. A CCR analysis shows that the most efficient airports in 2010 were Gatwick Airport (LGW), Zurich Airport (ZRH), Vienna Airport (VIE), Leonardo da Vinci Fiumicino Airport (FCO), Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), Seattle-Tacoma Airport (SEA), San Francisco Airport (SFO), HongKong Airport (HKG), Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK), and Shanghai Pudong Airport (PVG). We find that changes in airport productivity are affected more by technical factors than by airport efficiency. Conclusions - Based on the study results, we offer four airport development proposals. First, a benchmark airport needs to be identified. Second, inefficiency must be reduced and high-cost factors need to be managed. Third, airport operations should be enhanced through technical innovation. Finally, scientific demand forecasting and facility preparation must become the focus of attention. This paper has some limitations. Because the Malmquist productivity index is based on the hypothesis of the, the identified production change could be over- or under-estimated. Further, as DEA estimates the relative efficiency. It also cannot generalize to include all airport conditions because the variables are limited. To measure airport productivity more accurately, other input variables and environmental variables such as financial and policy factors should be included.

• Korean Journal of Plant Taxonomy
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• v.50 no.2
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• pp.89-119
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• 2020

Species invasions have rapidly increased due to the substantial growth of global trade in the recent past. As the awareness of the negative effects on natural ecosystems derived from alien species has grown, many countries and lawmakers have enacted rules and policies on the conservation of indigenous plants. Unfortunately, in Korea, research on species invasion is seriously lacking despite the growing number of alien species. In the current study, we report alien plants that have intentionally and/or unintentionally been introduced in Korea and also presented a checklist of invasive plants found both in the literature and in field surveys. We reviewed all documented records of alien plants, i.e., scientific papers, illustrated books, and annual reports. We also categorized alien plants by origin, time of introduction, naturalization, and the rate of their spread. The results revealed that there are 619 alien plant taxa (96 families, 353 genera, 595 species, 6 subspecies, 11 varieties, 1 forma, and 6 hybrids) occurring in Korea. Among these, 30 taxa are archaeophytes (Arc.), 214 are potentially invasive plants (PIPs), and 375 are invasive alien plants (IAPs). In addition, IAP taxa consist of grades 5 (widespread, WS) to 1 (potential spread, PS) of alien plants according to the rate of spread in Korea. Our results suggested that the number of alien plants is likely to keep growing; thus, the distribution should be regularly monitored and the list of alien plants must be updated.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.159-183
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• 2012

Promoted in places like Korea, the central government and the local governments that can provide information on which to base investment policy to attract foreign direct mutation-specific gravity model (Shift-Share Model) In this study, the decrease of foreign direct investment performance using factors looked up in the industry. The sample period of 2009, 2010, 2011 nationwide (metropolitan and non-metropolitan separated) of foreign direct investment performance for Industry Standard Industrial Classification (Division) was conducted. Factors to look at the results of the National Growth Effect(NS), the industrial structure effect (IM), local allocation effect(RS) to decrease foreign direct investment in 2010 and 2011 non-metropolitan, metropolitan national growth effect(RS) is negative(-) has a value. Because it appears to be the aftermath of the global recession, the impact on the domestic economy Metropolitan area and the Industrial Mix Effect(IM) to the development of education, culture, business, and transportation, etc. in the development of service industries than in non-metropolitan valid environment. In the sector of services (food accommodation, business services, entertainment), We did it, was able to find the function. However, the Regional Share Effect(RS) be competitive in the manufacturing sector in metropolitan areas in the metal and chemical sectors have been identified. These results seems to enhance the competitiveness of the region, such as the metropolitan area's excellent workforce. Shift-Share analysis technique based on competitive factors of the region, to find the failure has limitations.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.75-96
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• 2012

China will replace the global governance of the 21st century in 2050. The rise of China provide the Chinese development model to other developing countries. There are positive element and disability element in China's 'peaceful rise' strategy at the same time. Success of the reform and opening up, market liberalization, economic interdependency, economic globalization, stability of ruling power, consolidation of one-party rule and soft power increase are the promotions of peaceful rise. China's rise as a power nation begins by regaining the superpower status in East Asia. East Asia is a lebensraum assuring a continuing growth to China. For this lebensraum, China shows an interest in institutionalization of regional economic cooperation. The core values of ASEAN, namely the mutual respect, harmonious coexistence, co-prosperity, egalitarianism and pluralism are in conform to China's policy of harmonious world and peaceful coexistence. Through this common value the tension in East Asia will be alleviated. By the regional hegemony strategy based on soft power and economic success, China will try to regain the past glorious position. Attaining status as a coordinator of the world rule will be based on the success of the East Asian strategy. Korea and other neighboring countries will be the best beneficiary countries of the China's rise strategy. China's rising strategy will have a profound effect on neighboring countries especially, Korea. The scale of the movement of goods, labor, and capital between the two countries will become much larger than present. Through regional trade agreements, economic interdependency between Korea and China will increase.

• Journal of Families and Better Life
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.15-26
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• 2016

Food is a kind of unconditional element for the health and survival of humanity. Eating is the most principle desire for humans among others, which can make humans feel stability and pleasure when the desire is well satisfied. The attention to food safety is increasing and food safety accidents are happening constantly, which makes the anxiety to food safety become more serious. Especially after the WTO, the floating of food hazards between countries are increasing, which makes the problems of food safety not just limited to inland but has become a matter of common interest internationally in this liberalization era. Therefore, institutional preparation and persistent management and supervision are necessary for increasing dietary life satisfaction as well as securing food safety. Meanwhile, the consumers also need to understand and trust the food safety information, and have the ability of personally pursuing a safe diet. In this study, sentiment index about food safety and dietary satisfaction were centered on Korean consumers and the factors having an effect on dietary satisfaction were analyzed. Moreover, whether the reliance to food safety information had a moderating effect on the sensory level of food safety and satisfaction to dietary food was also confirmed. The main results were different with those concluded by J. Yun and S. Joo (2014). The sensory level of food safety was decided by the reliance to food production distribution provision safety, anxiety to food varieties, and food token. The reliance to food production distribution provision safety was lower than the average level. The anxiety to food varieties was slightly higher than the average level. The reliance to food safety information was generally lower than the medium level which showed the distrust to food safety information. The satisfaction of diet by the consumers showed a slightly lower level than the average level. In addition, the reliance to food safety information had a moderating effect on the sentiment index about food safety and dietary satisfaction. Therefore, the consumer organizations or the government should actively expand various consumer education related to food safety in order to apprehend the concrete variables which can have effects on the satisfaction of diet and transform the precise information into accurate knowledge.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.165-175
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• 2012

Recently, accumulation of technology, transfer, absorption, and commercialization is being significantly recognized as a key factor for sustainable growth of the 21st century global economy. The government established "Technology Transfer and Commercialization Promotion Act" In order that the technology developed at public research institutions can be transferred to the private sector and commercialized; the technology developed in the private sector can be traded and commercialized. Also, the Article 14 of "Technology Transfer and Commercialization Promotion Act" is concerning technology transfer agents' registration, promotion, and support: it introduced the special status system of technology transfer agents and the government registers, manages, and supervises it. In most developed countries, the technology transfer agency is transferred to the private sector and it is referred as a technology transfer agent or technology broker. In the domestic market, despite the introduction of the above special status system and the building a various organization and transfer medium system for boosting the market's revitalization, some problems occurred; because the registration system of a technology transfer agent and legal basis and system about its following-up control fall short. For example, recently technology transfer-related performance exemption has brought the activation of technology transfer agent's registration, but there was the limit of selecting the expert above a certain level. Therefore, some countermeasures for this are urgent, In addition, through a compulsory training completion system before the technology trade agent registration is prepared, a short period of curriculum was not sufficient to provide applicants various specialized knowledge. In this research, it is considered about the reform of technology transfer agent through its comparative study in China and Korea. Some improvements are suggested for expanding the market of technology transfer commercialization, assuring the agents' service and strengthening the competitiveness.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.75-93
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• 2006

The ship selection by consignors has two steps to carry their cargo. The first step is to select according to time schedule of ships and amount of cargo, and the second one is re-selection by concentrating different consignors' cargo into a unit that can be carried by single ship. Up to now, these steps are usually done by hands leading to inefficiency. The purpose of our paper is to form a logistics chain to minimize the overall sum of logistics cost by selecting ships for consignors' cargo using negotiation methodology between agents. Through concentration and distribution of cargo, maximization of global profit derived from searching optimal point in trade-off between inventory cost and freight rate cost. It is settled by the negotiation between consignors. In the experiments, two methods of the first-step of ship selection: EPDS(Earliest Possible Departure-Date Scheduling) and LPDS(Latest Possible Departure-Date Scheduling) coupled with the second-step ship concentration method using the negotiation were shown. From this, we deduced inventory cost, freight rates and logistics cost according SBF(Scheduling Bundle Factor) and analyzed the result. We found it will minimize the total logistics cost if we use negotiation method with EPDS.