• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.31-59
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• 2020

China's increasing trade volume and continuous integration with global financial markets have strengthened the influences of the renminbi on the exchange rates of different currencies. Previous studies find closer co-movements between the renminbi and other currencies. This paper is novel to investigate the underlying determinants of the co-movement further, using panel data of over thirty-four countries. Our results show that stronger bilateral trade and financial linkages with China have a positive association with the currency co-movement. Moreover, countries with greater flexibility in exchange rate regimes show stronger co-movements. These findings imply that growing co-movements are the consequence of autonomous decisions at the market rather than that of management by governments or central banks.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.469-495
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• 2020

This paper overviews different exit strategies for the U.S. from the debt-overhang, and analyses their implications for emerging markets and global stability. These strategies are discussed in the context of the debates about secular-stagnation versus debt-overhang, the fiscal theory of the price level, the size of fiscal multipliers, prospects for a multipolar currency system, and historical case studies. We conclude that the reallocation of U.S. fiscal efforts towards infrastructure investment aiming at boosting growth, followed by a gradual tax increase, aiming at reaching a modest primary fiscal surplus over time are akin to an upfront investment in greater long-term global stability. Such a trajectory may solidify the viability and credibility of the U.S. dollar as a global anchor, thereby stabilizing Emerging Markets economies and global growth.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.61-75
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• 2020

Purpose - The purpose of this study was to examine the efficiency of the foreign exchange markets in Korea, Japan and China. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected 1327 observations each of the daily closing exchange rates of the three currencies against the US dollar for the sample period from January 1, 2015 to January 31, 2020, based on the tests for autocorrelation, unit root tests and GARCH-M(1,1) model estimation. Findings - We have found that the autocorrelation test indicates the lack of autocorrelation and unit root test confirms the existence of unit roots in all times series of the three currencies, respectively. The GARCH-M(1,1) test results, however, suggest that the exchange rates do not follow a random walk process. In conclusion, the recent spot foreign exchange markets in Korea, Japan and China are believed to be informationally inefficient. Research implications or Originality - These findings have practical implications for both individual and institutional investors to be able to obtain excess returns on their investments in the foreign exchange markets in three countries by using appropriate risk management, portfolio strategy, technical analysis, etc. This study provides the first empirical examination on the foreign exchange market efficiency in the three biggest economies in Asia including China, which has been excluded from research due to its exchange rate regime.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.121-138
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• 2010

미국의 경상수지 적자규모는 여전히 높은 수준을 나타내고 있는 반면, 동아시아국가들은 꾸준히 높은 수준의 경상수지 흑자를 나타내는 이른 바 '글로벌 불균형(global imbalance)'현상이 진행되고 있다. 본 논문은 1999년-2008년간 자료를 이용하여 미국과 아시아 10개 국가간 경상수지와 환율간의 관계를 실증적으로 분석함으로써 중국과 아시아 국가들의 수출증대를 위한 환율 저평가 정책이 글로벌 불균형의 핵심 원인이라고 주장하는 '제2차 브레튼 우즈(Bretton Woods II)' 가설의 유효성을 검정하였다. 실증 분석결과, 아시아 국가들의 실질환율 절하가 글로벌 불균형의 부분적인 원인으로 작용하였으나 아시아 지역의 투자위축에 따른 잉여저축과 미국의 순저축 부족 문제 등이 환율보다 더 큰 요인으로 작용한 것으로 나타났다. 그러므로 '제2차 브레튼 우즈(Bretton Woods II)' 가설은 유효하지 않은 것으로 파악되며, 환율 이외에 국민소득 변화와 (저축 대비)투자의 변화와 같은 경제여건의 조정에 의해서도 글로벌 불균형은 완화될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권8호
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• pp.131-141
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• 2020

This study is designed to investigate the impact of China exchange rate policy on its trading partners by using a country multi-dataset GVAR model. Our model includes samples of 30 countries, six from high-income, six from middle-income and eighteen from low-income countries. This study used annual time series data over the period 1992 to 2017. We constructed currency misalignment index and it provided some interesting features about the currency undervaluation and overvaluation. The results of the currency misalignment shows that China's Renminbi is structurally more undervalued over the sample period as compared to other countries, and fluctuation in major currencies effects the global trade around the world. The overall empirical results of the GVAR model indicate that RMB undervaluation affects the trade pattern and macroeconomic performance of China's trading partners. Overall, China's exchange rate undervaluation has mixed effects on trading partner's GDP, exports and imports. The devaluation of China's RMB efficiently stimulated China's exports and reduced imports. While, in some countries, this effect is reverse, the RMB undervaluation increases the GDP of partner countries and also increases their exports to China. The results confirm the strong and leading role of the Chinese Renminbi in the global trade.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.371-398
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• 2006

Gold prices are rising around the world in all major currencies. This is a telltale sign of a Stage Two gold bull where gold decouples from the US dollar. In this study, We analysed a confluence of factors seem to be feeding gold's gains and the typical shape of a secular gold bull---gold bulls' three stages. Stages one, two, and three of a secular gold bull are defined by the major changes. Each stage, considered in turn, makes perfect sense when described in terms of global investor demand. Since Stage One is currency-devaluation driven, the young gold bull is most noticeable in terms of the dominant eroding currency. Now after three or four years of stage one, Stage Two arrives. Stage Two marks a momentous event when gold decouples from the local-currency devaluation. In the case of our gold bull today, Stage Two will be here when gold starts consistently rising faster than the dollar is able to fall. After five or so years of Stage Two gains, gold has a chance at going ballistic in stage three. Stage Three is only ignited if the general public around the world starts growing enamored with gold investing. In summary, the first stage being when insiders and professionals invest in the market. The second stage is when the general public and financial media recognizes that the bull market is real. The third stage is the mania stage when people feel that not only is the bull market real, but it is a must own situation. Through the study we found that gold is entering it now.

• Journal of Multimedia Information System
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.197-202
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• 2021

Bitcoin and blockchain are often making headlines not only on TV or media but also among the public in today's society. These technologies have been developed after the risk of the centralized financial system came to the fore during the 2007 global financial crisis. Since then, an anonymous inventor called Satoshi Nakamoto penned the bitcoin white paper where a blockchain-based reference implementation was introduced. Bitcoin was able to achieve unprecedented growth by positioning itself as one of the top global currencies in terms of market capitalization after five years since its development. The pace of Vietnam's economic development is notably fast among Asian nations, while the nation was expected to be a Southeast Asian blockchain hub but they have banned virtual currency trading recently. However, they've also designated the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) as a responsible agency for the research of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies, the construction of a service ecosystem, and their test operations. The fast-growing economy, increasing number of smartphone users, and the Vietnam government's support policies for startups substantiate these efforts. Therefore, this paper attempts to study the current status of Vietnam's blockchain technology that has been considered to be the center of blockchain systems right behind Singapore, and its implications for Korean companies.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 1th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.459-468
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• 2005

International contractors must consider the substantial risks related to unexpected foreign exchange fluctuation incurred by conducting their business and using foreign currencies in foreign countries. Most international contractors attempt to minimize foreign exchange exposure within a manageable range because it may influence the company's fundamental financial structure, reduce market value or profit margins, or disrupt ongoing and future projects. This research provides a qualitative study of existing foreign exchange exposure (transaction, operation, and translation exposure) and current & effective foreign exchange risk management in American and Korean international contractors, as they represent both new and long-time members of the global construction market. Finally, recommendations of techniques for new and existing international contractors to minimize and better manage foreign exchange risk will be offered.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.281-310
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• 2013

The aim of this paper is to estimate the degree of RMB misalignment from its equilibrium exchange rate by applying the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach. We employ monthly data with reference to China's top 20 trading partners covering the period of 1997 to 2012. We find that the RMB was slightly overvalued before 2001 and significantly undervalued by up to 20 per cent in the end of 2006. There is evidence showing that the RMB approached to its equilibrium level from 2007 to 2008. However, the global financial crisis interrupted the trend of declining misalignment of RMB exchange rate. The RMB's total misalignment increased to around 25 per cent in the mid-2011 mainly because the RMB was re-pegged to the US dollar and some currencies of China's main trading partners depreciated during the period of crisis. More recently, the degree of RMB misalignment slightly declined since 2012 when the RMB proceeded to appreciate and China's ratio of current account surplus to GDP dropped considerably. Our findings prove that there is a trend of the RMB approaching to its equilibrium exchange rate since 2007 except for the period of crisis.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.153-195
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• 2010

세계금융위기의 근본적인 원인은 시장과 제도의 괴리에서 나오는 '제도의 실패'라고 할 수 있다. 특히 현재의 국제통화제도는 무제도(non-system)나 다름없다고 할 수 있다. 현재 당면하고 있는 국제통화제도의 문제점들을 볼 때 개편 방향의 핵심은 (1) 수요 측면에서는 과대한 외환보유고를 축적하려는 인센티브를 어떻게 줄일 수 있을 것인가 하는 것이며, (2) 공급 측면에서는 현재 미국 달러화에 주로 의존하고 있는 제도를 탈피, 보다 다양한 국제통화 혹은 대체적 외화준비자산(SDR을 포함하여)으로 전환해 나가거나 혹은 보다 근본적인 개혁방안으로서 새로운 세계통화(global reserve currency)를 창출하는 것이다. 그리고 (3) 이러한 변화를 뒷받침 하기 위해 필요한 기구적 개편, 특히 IMF의 개혁을 추진하는 것이다. 이러한 개편은 현실적 국제역학관계로 볼 때 오직 점진적으로 일어날 수 있는 것이다. 따라서 현재 세계경제의 안정적 성장을 위해 중요한 것은 이러한 개편을 점진적으로 추진함과 동시에 주요국 간의 거시경제정책공조를 이뤄 나가는 것이다. 이러한 과정을 원활히 해나가기 위해서는 효율적인 세계경제 지배구조를 갖추는 것이 필수적이다. 세계금융위기 이후 출범한 G20 정상회의가 효율적인 협의체가 되기 위해서는 의사결정이 원활히 이루어질 수 있는 방안과 장치를 세워나갈 필요가 있다. 사무국(secretariat) 혹은 그와 유사한 기능을 행사할 수 있는 조직의 설립과 위원회제도 같은 것을 활용할 필요가 있을 것으로 보인다.