• 한국항행학회논문지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.233-239
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• 2018

태양광 발전은 기상 상태에 따라 간헐적이기 때문에 태양광 발전의 효율과 경제성 향상을 위해 정확한 발전량 예측이 요구된다. 본 연구는 목포 기상대에서 예보하는 기상 데이터와 영암 태양광 발전소의 발전량 데이터를 이용하여 태양광 발전량 단기 딥러닝 예측모델을 제안하였다. 기상청은 기온, 강수량, 풍향, 풍속, 습도, 운량 등의 기상요소를 3일간 예보한다. 그러나 태양광 발전량 예측에 가장 중요한 기상요소인 일조 및 일사 일사량 예보하지 않는다. 제안 모델은 예보 기상요소를 이용하여, 일조 및 일사 일사량을 예측 하였다. 또한 발전량은 기상요소에 예측된 일조 및 일사 기상요소를 추가하여 예측하였다. 제안 모델의 발전량 예측 결과 DNN의 평균 RMSE와 MAE는 0.177과 0.095이며, RNN은 0.116과 0.067이다. 또한, LSTM은 가장 좋은 결과인 0.100과 0.054이다. 향후 본 연구는 다양한 입력요소의 결합으로 보다 향상된 예측결과를 도출할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 대기
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• 제32권2호
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• pp.149-162
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• 2022

This study investigated the prediction skill of the Asian dust seasonal forecasting model (GloSea5-ADAM) on the Asian dust and meteorological variables related to the dust generation for the period of 1991~2016. Additionally, we evaluated the prediction skill of those variables depending on the combination of the initial dates in the sub-seasonal scale for the dust source region affecting South Korea. The Asian dust and meteorological variables (10 m wind speed, 1.5 m relative humidity, and 1.5 m air temperature) from GloSea5-ADAM were compared to that from Synoptic observation and European Centre for medium range weather forecasts reanalysis v5, respectively, based on Mean Bias Error (MBE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) as evaluation criteria. In general, the Asian dust and meteorological variables in the source region showed high ACC in the prediction scale within one month. For all variables, the use of the initial dates closest to the prediction month led to the best performances based on MBE, RMSE, and ACC, and the performances could be improved by adjusting the number of ensembles considering the combination of the initial date. ACC was as high as 0.4 in Spring when using the closest two initial dates. In particular, the GloSea5-ADAM shows the best performance of Asian dust generation with an ACC of 0.60 in the occurrence frequency of Asian dust in March when using the closest initial dates for initial conditions.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.489-496
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• 2020

This study proposes a new empirical model to effectively predict the excavation performance of a shield tunnel boring machine (TBM). The TBM performance is affected by the geological and geotechnical characteristics as well as the machine parameters of TBM. Field penetration index (FPI) is correlated with rock mass parameters to analyze the effective geotechnical parameters influencing the TBM performance. The result shows that RMR has a more dominant impact on the TBM performance than UCS and RQD. RMR also shows a significant relationship with the specific energy, which is defined as the energy required for excavating the unit volume of rock. Therefore, the specific energy can be used as an indicator of the mechanical efficiency of TBM. Based on these relationships with RMR, this study suggests an empirical performance prediction model to predict FPI, which can be derived from the correlation between the specific energy and RMR.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.245-257
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• 2004

Driven by the growing number of the mobile subscribers, efficient channel resource management plays a key role for provisioning multimedia service in the next generation personal communication systems. To reuse limited channel resources, diminishing the coverage areas of cells seems to be the ultimate solution. Thus, however, causes more handover events. To provide seamless connection environment for mobile terminals and applications, this article presents a novel handover scheme called the intelligent channel reservation (ICR) scheme, which exploits the location prediction technologies to accurately reserve channel resources for handover connections. Considering the fact that each mobile terminal has its individual mobility characteristic, the ICR scheme utilizes a channel reserving notification procedure (CRNP) to collect adequate parameters for predicting the future location of individual mobile terminals. These parameters will be utilized by the handover prediction function to estimate the expected handover blocking rate and the expected number of idle channels. Based on the handover prediction estimations, a cost function for calculating the damages from blocking the handover connections and idling channel resources, and a corresponding algorithm for minimizing the cost function are proposed. In addition, a guard channel decision maker (GCDM) determines the appropriate number of guard channels. The experimental results show that the ICR scheme does reduce the handover-blocking rate while keeping the number of idle channels small.

• 전기전자학회논문지
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.334-337
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• 2019

현재 계속해서 늘어나는 에너지 수요량에 대해 세계적으로 화석연료를 대체할 차세대 에너지의 연구개발이 활발하게 이루어지고 있다. 그 중, 무한정, 무공해의 태양에너지를 사용하는 태양광 발전 시스템의 비중이 커지고 있지만, 일사량에 따른 발전량 편차가 심해 안정된 전력공급이 어렵고 전력 생산량 자체가 지역별 일사량에 의존하는 문제가 존재한다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 문제점을 해결하기 위해 실제의 지역별 일사량, 강수량, 온도, 습도 등의 기상데이터를 수집하여 로직 기반의 퍼지 뉴럴 네트워크를 이용한 태양광 발전 출력 예측 시스템을 제안하였다.

• 한국인공지능학회지
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.7-11
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• 2022

OLED displays cannot be used permanently due to burn-in or generation of dark spots due to degradation. Therefore, the time when the display can operate normally is very important. It is close to impossible to physically measure the time when the display operates normally. Therefore, the time that works normally should be predicted in a way other than a physical way. Therefore, if you do computer simulations based on artificial intelligence, you can increase the accuracy of prediction by saving time and continuous learning. Therefore, if we do computer simulations based on artificial intelligence, we can increase the accuracy of prediction by saving time and continuous learning. In this paper, a dataset in the form of development from generation to diffusion of dark spots, which is one of the causes related to the life of OLED, was generated by applying the finite element method. The dark spots were generated in nine conditions, such as 0.1 to 2.0 ㎛ with the size of pinholes, the number was 10 to 100, and 50% with water content. The learning data created in this way may be a criterion for generating an artificial intelligence-based dataset.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 1997년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.788-793
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• 1997

The surface,generated by end milling operation, is deteriorated by tool runout,vibration,friction,tool deflection, etc. In many source,deflection of tool affects to surfave accuracy. To develop a surface accracy model,method for the prediction of the topography of machined surfaces has been developed based on models of machine tool kinematics and cutting tool geometry. This model accounts for not only the ideal geometrical surface, but also the deflection of tool resulted in cutting force. For the more accurate prediction of cutting force,flexible end mill model is used to simulate cutting process. Compute simu;ation have shown the feasibility of the surface generation system.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국시뮬레이션학회 1998년도 The Korea Society for Simulation 98 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.101-105
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• 1998

A large system predictor, which can perform prediction of sales trend in a huge number of distribution centers, is presented using neural predictive model. There are 20,000 number of distribution centers, and each distribution center need to forecast future demand in order to establish a reasonable inventory policy. Therefore, the number of forecasting models corresponds to the number of distribution centers, which is not possible to estimate that kind of huge number of accurate models in ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning)module. Multilayer neural net as universal approximation is employed for fitting the prediction model. In order to improve prediction accuracy, a sequential simulation procedure is performed to get appropriate network structure and also to improve forecasting accuracy. The proposed simulation procedure includes neural structure identification and virtual predictive model generation. The predictive model generation consists of generating virtual signals and estimating predictive model. The virtual predictive model plays a key role in tuning the real model by absorbing the real model errors. The complement approach, based on real and virtual model, could forecast the future demands of various distribution centers.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제32권6B호
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• pp.399-406
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• 2012

본 연구의 목적은 폐기물매립지에서의 온실가스 발생량 예측모델 및 모델에 적용된 변수들의 산정방법을 개발하는 것이다. 본 연구에서는 온실가스 발생예측 모델 중 1차 반응모델의 변수인 메탄잠재발생량과 메탄발생속도상수를 평가하기 위하여 수정 Gompertz 식과 Logistic 식을 미분한 2개의 식을 적용하였다. 변수들은 실제 폐기물매립지에서의 매립가스 발생량에 대한 실측값과 예측값과의 통계학적 비교를 통해 산정하였다. 매립가스 발생량에 대한 실측값과 수정 Gompertz 식 및 Logistic 식을 미분하여 나타낸 2개의 식을 이용한 매립가스 발생량 예측값에 대한 회귀분석결과 결정계수는 각각 0.92와 0.94로 나타나, 폐기물매립지에서의 매립가스 발생량에 대한 측정값이 있을 경우 회귀분석을 통해 변수를 산정할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 실측값이 없는 폐기물매립지에서의 온실가스 발생량을 예측할 수 있도록 하기 위하여 수정 Gompertz 식과 Logistic 식을 미분한 2개의 식을 기초로 하여 예측모델을 개발하였으며, 이 모델들의 정확성을 평가하기 위하여 Qcs(실측값):Q(예측값)의 비에 대한 빈도분포를 평가한 결과 LandGEM 모델보다 높은 정확성을 나타내었다. 따라서 본 연구에서 개발한 모델들은 폐기물매립지에서의 온실가스 발생량 예측에 적합한 것으로 사료된다.

• 대기
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.177-185
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• 2024

As increasing global interest in renewable energy due to the ongoing climate crisis, there is a growing need for efficient technologies to manage such resources. This study focuses on the predictive skill of daily solar power generation using weather observation and forecast data. Meteorological data from the Korea Meteorological Administration and solar power generation data from the Korea Power Exchange were utilized for the period from January 2017 to May 2023, considering both inland (Daejeon) and coastal (Busan) regions. Temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and precipitation were selected as relevant meteorological variables for solar power prediction. All data was preprocessed by removing their systematic components to use only their residuals and the residual of solar data were further processed with weighted adjustments for homoscedasticity. Four models, MLR (Multiple Linear Regression), RF (Random Forest), DNN (Deep Neural Network), and RNN (Recurrent Neural Network), were employed for solar power prediction and their performances were evaluated based on predicted values utilizing observed meteorological data (used as a reference), 1-day-ahead forecast data (referred to as fore1), and 2-day-ahead forecast data (fore2). DNN-based prediction model exhibits superior performance in both regions, with RNN performing the least effectively. However, MLR and RF demonstrate competitive performance comparable to DNN. The disparities in the performance of the four different models are less pronounced than anticipated, underscoring the pivotal role of fitting models using residuals. This emphasizes that the utilized preprocessing approach, specifically leveraging residuals, is poised to play a crucial role in the future of solar power generation forecasting.