• Title/Summary/Keyword: Generation Prediction

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A Study on Model of Regional Logistics Requirements Prediction

  • Lu, Bo;Park, Nam-Kyu
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.36 no.7
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    • pp.553-559
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    • 2012
  • It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Erdos as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Erdos and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

Performance Analysis of Real-time Orbit Determination and Prediction for Navigation Message of Regional Navigation Satellite System

  • Jaeuk Park;Bu-Gyeom Kim;Changdon Kee;Donguk Kim
    • Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.167-176
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    • 2023
  • This study presents the performance analysis of real-time orbit determination and prediction for navigation message generation of Regional Navigation Satellite System (RNSS). Since the accuracy of ephemeris and clock correction in navigation message affects the positioning accuracy of the user, it is essential to construct a ground segment that can generate this information precisely when designing a new navigation satellite system. Based on a real-time architecture by an extended Kalman filter, we simulated orbit determination and prediction of RNSS satellites in order to assess the accuracy of orbit and clock prediction and signal-in-space ranging errors (SISRE). As a result of the simulation, the orbit and clock accuracy was at 0.5 m and 2 m levels for 24 hour determination and six hour prediction after the determination, respectively. From the prediction result, we verified that the SISRE of RNSS for six hour prediction was at a 1 m level.

Development of a System for Predicting Photovoltaic Power Generation and Detecting Defects Using Machine Learning (기계학습을 이용한 태양광 발전량 예측 및 결함 검출 시스템 개발)

  • Lee, Seungmin;Lee, Woo Jin
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.5 no.10
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    • pp.353-360
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    • 2016
  • Recently, solar photovoltaic(PV) power generation which generates electrical power from solar panels composed of multiple solar cells, showed the most prominent growth in the renewable energy sector worldwide. However, in spite of increased demand and need for a photovoltaic power generation, it is difficult to early detect defects of solar panels and equipments due to wide and irregular distribution of power generation. In this paper, we choose an optimal machine learning algorithm for estimating the generation amount of solar power by considering several panel information and climate information and develop a defect detection system by using the chosen algorithm generation. Also we apply the algorithm to a domestic solar photovoltaic power plant as a case study.

Design of a Multi-array CNN Model for Improving CTR Prediction (클릭률 예측 성능 향상을 위한 다중 배열 CNN 모형 설계)

  • Kim, Tae-Suk
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.267-274
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    • 2020
  • Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is an estimate of the probability that a user will click on a given item and plays an important role in determining strategies for maximizing online ad revenue. Recently, research has been performed to utilize CNN for CTR prediction. Since the CTR data does not have a meaningful order in terms of correlation, the CTR data may be arranged in any order. However, because CNN only learns local information limited by filter size, data arrays can have a significant impact on performance. In this paper, we propose a multi-array CNN model that generates a data array set that can extract all local feature information that CNN can collect, and learns features through individual CNN modules. Experimental results for large data sets show that the proposed model achieves a 22.6% synergy with RI in AUC compared to the existing CNN, and the proposed array generation method achieves 3.87% performance improvement over the random generation method.

Prediction of module temperature and photovoltaic electricity generation by the data of Korea Meteorological Administration (데이터를 활용한 태양광 발전 시스템 모듈온도 및 발전량 예측)

  • Kim, Yong-min;Moon, Seung-Jae
    • Plant Journal
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.41-52
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the PV output and module temperature values were predicted using the Meteorological Agency data and compared with actual data, weather, solar radiation, ambient temperature, and wind speed. The forecast accuracy by weather was the lowest in the data on a clear day, which had the most data of the day when it was snowing or the sun was hit at dawn. The predicted accuracy of the module temperature and the amount of power generation according to the amount of insolation decreased as the amount of insolation increased, and the predicted accuracy according to the ambient temperature decreased as the module temperature increased as the ambient temperature increased and the amount of power generated lowered the ambient temperature. As for wind speed, the predicted accuracy decreased as the wind speed increased for both module temperature and power generation, but it was difficult to define the correlation because wind speed was insignificant than the influence of other weather conditions.

Study on the Prediction of wind Power Generation Based on Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망 기반의 풍력발전기 발전량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Se-Yoon;Kim, Sung-Ho
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.17 no.11
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    • pp.1173-1178
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    • 2011
  • The power generated by wind turbines changes rapidly because of the continuous fluctuation of wind speed and direction. It is important for the power industry to have the capability to predict the changing wind power. In this paper, neural network based wind power prediction scheme which uses wind speed and direction is considered. In order to get a better prediction result, compression function which can be applied to the measurement data is introduced. Empirical data obtained from wind farm located in Kunsan is considered to verify the performance of the compression function.

ADS-B based Trajectory Prediction and Conflict Detection for Air Traffic Management

  • Baek, Kwang-Yul;Bang, Hyo-Choong
    • International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.377-385
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    • 2012
  • The Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) system is a key component of CNS/ATM recommended by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) as the next generation air traffic control system. ADS-B broadcasts identification, positional data, and operation information of an aircraft to other aircraft, ground vehicles and ground stations in the nearby region. This paper explores the ADS-B based trajectory prediction and the conflict detection algorithm. The multiple-model based trajectory prediction algorithm leads accurate predicted conflict probability at a future forecast time. We propose an efficient and accurate algorithm to calculate conflict probability based on approximation of the conflict zone by a set of blocks. The performance of proposed algorithms is demonstrated by a numerical simulation of two aircraft encounter scenarios.

Development of Solar Power Output Prediction Method using Big Data Processing Technic (태양광 발전량 예측을 위한 빅데이터 처리 방법 개발)

  • Jung, Jae Cheon;Song, Chi Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.58-67
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    • 2020
  • A big data processing method to predict solar power generation using systems engineering approach is developed in this work. For developing analytical method, linear model (LM), support vector machine (SVN), and artificial neural network (ANN) technique are chosen. As evaluation indices, the cross-correlation and the mean square root of prediction error (RMSEP) are used. From multi-variable comparison test, it was found that ANN methodology provides the highest correlation and the lowest RMSEP.

Chaotic Time Series Prediction using Extended Fuzzy Entropy Clustering (확장된 퍼지엔트로피 클러스터링을 이용한 카오스 시계열 데이터 예측)

  • 박인규
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 2000.06c
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    • pp.5-8
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we propose new algorithms for the partition of input space and the generation of fuzzy control rules. The one consists of Shannon and extended fuzzy entropy function, the other consists of adaptive fuzzy neural system with back propagation teaming rule. The focus of this scheme is to realize the optimal fuzzy rule base with the minimal number of the parameters of the rules, reducing the complexity of the system. The proposed algorithm is tested with the time series prediction problem using Mackey-Glass chaotic time series.

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