• Title/Summary/Keyword: Generalized Additive Model

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Epidemiologic Methods and Study Designs for Investigating Adverse Health Effects of Ambient Air Pollution (대기오염의 건강 영향 평가를 위한 역학연구 설계 및 방법론)

  • Kim, Ho;Lee, Jong-Tae
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.119-126
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    • 2001
  • Air pollution epidemiologic studies are intrinsically difficult because the expected effect size at general environmental levels is small, exposure and misclassification of exposure are common, and exposure is not selective to a specific pollutant. In this review paper, epidemiologic study designs and analytic methods are described, and two nationwide projects on air pollution epidemiology are introduced. This paper also demonstrates that possible confounding issues in time-series analysis can be resolved and the impact on the use of data from ambient monitoring stations may not be critical. In this paper we provide a basic understanding of the types of air pollution epidemiologic study designs that be subdivided by the mode of air pollution effects on human health (acute or chronic). With the improvements in the area of air pollution epidemiologic studies, we should emphasize that elaborate models and statistical techniques cannot compensate for inadequate study design or poor data collection.

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Investigating the Time Lag Effect between Economic Recession and Suicide Rates in Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry Workers in Korea

  • Yoon, Jin-Ha;Junger, Washington;Kim, Boo-Wook;Kim, Young-Joo;Koh, Sang-Baek
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.294-297
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    • 2012
  • Previous studies on the vast increase in suicide mortality in Southeast Asia have indicated that suicide rates increase in parallel with a rise in unemployment or during periods of economic recession. This paper examines the effects of economic recession on suicidal rates amongst agriculture, fisheries, and forestry workers in Korea. Monthly time-series gross domestic product (GDP) data were linked with suicidal rates gathered from the cause of death records between1993-2008. Data were analyzed using generalized additive models to analyze trends, while a polynomial lag model was used to assess the unconstrained time lag effects of changes in GDP on suicidal rate. We found that there were significant inverse correlations between changes in GDP and suicide for a time lag of one to four months after the occurrence of economic event. Furthermore, it was evident that the overall relative risks of suicide were high enough to bring about social concern.

Lifetime Risk Assessment of Lung Cancer Incidence for Nonsmokers in Japan Considering the Joint Effect of Radiation and Smoking Based on the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors

  • Shimada, Kazumasa;Kai, Michiaki
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.83-97
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    • 2021
  • Background: The lifetime risk of lung cancer incidence due to radiation for nonsmokers is overestimated because of the use of the average cancer baseline risk among a mixed population, including smokers. In recent years, the generalized multiplicative (GM)-excess relative risk (ERR) model has been developed in the life span study of atomic bomb survivors to consider the joint effect of radiation and smoking. Based on this background, this paper discusses the issues of radiation risk assessment considering smoking in two parts. Materials and Methods: In Part 1, we proposed a simple method of estimating the baseline risk for nonsmokers using current smoking data. We performed sensitivity analysis on baseline risk estimation to discuss the birth cohort effects. In Part 2, we applied the GM-ERR model for Japanese smokers to calculate lifetime attributable risk (LAR). We also performed a sensitivity analysis using other ERR models (e.g., simple additive (SA)-ERR model). Results and Discussion: In Part 1, the lifetime baseline risk from mixed population including smokers to nonsmokers decreased by 54% (44%-60%) for males and 24% (18%-29%) for females. In Part 2, comparison of LAR between SA- and GM-ERR models showed that if the radiation dose was ≤200 mGy or less, the difference between these ERR models was within the standard deviation of LAR due to the uncertainty of smoking information. Conclusion: The use of mixed population for baseline risk assessment overestimates the risk for lung cancer due to low-dose radiation exposure in Japanese males.

Short-term Effect of Ambient Air Pollution on Emergency Department Visits for Diabetic Coma in Seoul, Korea

  • Kim, Hyunmee;Kim, Woojin;Choi, Jee Eun;Kim, Changsoo;Sohn, Jungwoo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.265-274
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: A positive association between air pollution and both the incidence and prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) has been reported in some epidemiologic and animal studies, but little research has evaluated the relationship between air pollution and diabetic coma. Diabetic coma is an acute complication of DM caused by diabetic ketoacidosis or hyperosmolar hyperglycemic state, which is characterized by extreme hyperglycemia accompanied by coma. We conducted a time-series study with a generalized additive model using a distributed-lag non-linear model to assess the association between ambient air pollution (particulate matter less than $10{\mu}m$ in aerodynamic diameter, nitrogen dioxide [$NO_2$], sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and ozone) and emergency department (ED) visits for DM with coma in Seoul, Korea from 2005 to 2009. Methods: The ED data and medical records from the 3 years previous to each diabetic coma event were obtained from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service to examine the relationship with air pollutants. Results: Overall, the adjusted relative risks (RRs) for an interquartile range (IQR) increment of $NO_2$ was statistically significant at lag 1 (RR, 1.125; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.039 to 1.219) in a single-lag model and both lag 0-1 (RR, 1.120; 95% CI, 1.028 to 1.219) and lag 0-3 (RR, 1.092; 95% CI, 1.005 to 1.186) in a cumulative-lag model. In a subgroup analysis, significant positive RRs were found for females for per-IQR increments of $NO_2$ at cumulative lag 0-3 (RR, 1.149; 95% CI, 1.022 to 1.291). Conclusions: The results of our study suggest that ambient air pollution, specifically $NO_2$, is associated with ED visits for diabetic coma.

Study of the Non-linear Relationships between Watershed Land Use and Biological Indicators of Streams - The Han River Basin - (유역 토지이용과 하천 생물지수의 비선형적 관계 연구 - 한강권역을 대상으로 -)

  • Park, Se-Rin;Lee, Jong-Won;Park, Yu-Jin;Lee, Sang-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.55-67
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    • 2022
  • Land use is a critical factor that affects the hydrological characteristics of watersheds, thereby determining the biological condition of streams. This study analyzes the effects of land uses in the watersheds on biological indicators of streams across the Han River basin using a linear model (LM) and generalized additive model (GAM). LULC and biological monitoring data of streams were obtained from the Korean Ministry of Environment. The proportions of urban, agricultural, and forest areas in the watersheds were regressed to the three biological indicators, including diatom, benthic macroinvertebrate, and fish of streams. The estimated LM and GAM models for the biological indicators were then compared, using regression determination R2 and AIC values. The results revealed that GAM models performed better than the LM models in explaining the variances of biological indicators of streams, indicating the non-linear relationships between biological indicators and land uses in watersheds. Also, the results suggested that the indicator of macroinvertebrates was the most sensitive indicator to land uses in watersheds. Although non-linear relationships between watershed land uses and biological indicators of streams could vary among biological indicators, it was consistent that streams' biological integrity significantly deteriorated by a relatively low percentage of urban areas. Meanwhile, biological indicators of streams were negatively affected by the relatively high percentage of agricultural areas. The results of this study can be integrated into effective quantitative criteria for the watershed management and land use plans to enhance the biological integrity of streams. In specific, land uses management plans in watersheds may need more close attention to urban land use changes than agricultural land uses to sustain the biological integrity of streams.

A Time-Series Study of Ambient Air Pollution in Relation to Daily Mortality in Seoul, 1998∼2001 (서울시 대기오염과 일별 사망의 상관성에 관한 시계열적 연구 (1998∼2001년))

  • Cho, Yong-Sung;Lee, Jong-Tae;Kim, Yoon-Sin;Hong, Seung-Cheol;Kim, Ho;Ha, Eun-Hee;Park, Hye-Sook;Lee, Bo-Eun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.625-637
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    • 2003
  • This study was performed to examine the relationship between air pollution exposure and mortality in Seoul for the years of 1998∼2001. Daily counts of death were analyzed by general additive Poisson model, with adjustment for effects of seasonal trend, air temperature, humidity, and day of the week as confounders in a nonparametric approach. Daily death counts were associated with CO (current day),O$_3$ (current day), PM$_{10}$ (current day), NO$_2$ (1 day before), SO$_2$ (1 day before). Increase of 41.71 $\mu\textrm{g}$/㎥ (interquartile range) in PM$_{10}$ was associated with 1.3% (95% CI = 0.7∼1.9%) increase in the daily number of death. $O_3$ concentrations resulted in an increased risk of 1.3% for 23.86 ppb in all-aged mortality [RR = 1.013 (1.004-1.023)1. This effect was greater in children (less than 15 aged) and elderly (more than 65 aged). After ozone level exceeds 25 ppb, the dose-response relationship between mortality and ozone was almost linear. We concluded that Seoul had 1∼5% increase in mortality in association with IQR (interquartile range) in air pollutants. Daily variations in air pollution within the range currently occurring in Seoul might have an adverse effect on daily mortality. These findings also support the hypothesis that air pollution, at levels below the current ambient air quality standards of Korea, is harmful to sensitive subjects, such as children or elderly.rly.

Utilization Evaluation of Numerical forest Soil Map to Predict the Weather in Upland Crops (밭작물 농업기상을 위한 수치형 산림입지토양도 활용성 평가)

  • Kang, Dayoung;Hwang, Yeongeun;Yoon, Sanghoo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.34-45
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    • 2021
  • Weather is one of the important factors in the agricultural industry as it affects the price, production, and quality of crops. Upland crops are directly exposed to the natural environment because they are mainly grown in mountainous areas. Therefore, it is necessary to provide accurate weather for upland crops. This study examined the effectiveness of 12 forest soil factors to interpolate the weather in mountainous areas. The daily temperature and precipitation were collected by the Korea Meteorological Administration between January 2009 and December 2018. The Generalized Additive Model (GAM), Kriging, and Random Forest (RF) were considered to interpolate. For evaluating the interpolation performance, automatic weather stations were used as training data and automated synoptic observing systems were used as test data for cross-validation. Unfortunately, the forest soil factors were not significant to interpolate the weather in the mountainous areas. GAM with only geography aspects showed that it can interpolate well in terms of root mean squared error and mean absolute error. The significance of the factors was tested at the 5% significance level in GAM, and the climate zone code (CLZN_CD) and soil water code B (SIBFLR_LAR) were identified as relatively important factors. It has shown that CLZN_CD could help to interpolate the daily average and minimum daily temperature for upland crops.

Modelling of a Spatial Distribution of the Species Richness of Fishes, Plants, and Birds Using Environmental Factors on a Wide-Ranging Scale1 - Focusing on the Major Drainage Systems in Japan - (광역스케일의 환경 인자를 이용한 어류, 식물, 조류 종수의 공간적 분포에 대한 모델링 - 일본의 주요수계를 중심으로 -)

  • Han, Mi-Deok;Lee, Gi-Bae
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.347-355
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    • 2008
  • This study analyzed and modeled the relationships between the species richness of fish, plant, and bird and environmental factors such as climatic and geographical variables based on data collected from 109 major drainage systems in Japan from 1990 until 2005. As a result, the most parts of the distributions of the fish, plant, and bird species richness were clarified by the average annual atmospheric temperature, dimension of drainage areas, and annual rainfall, respectively. In addition, this study predicted the value of each organism species distributed in national drainage areas in Japan using GAMs(Generalized Additive Models) for each organism model created by environmental factors on a wide-ranging scale, and also mapped out the value. Mapping out the predicted value could make it easier for its managers to newly set up the areas needing to be protected to obtain diversity of the organism species and to assess their availability of conservation for bio-diversity.

Effect of Sleep Quality on Fatigue and Quality of Life : a Sasang Constitutional Medicine Perspective (사상체질에 따른 수면의 질과 피로 및 삶의 질 관련성)

  • Park, Ji-Eun;Mun, Sujeong;Lee, Siwoo
    • Journal of Physiology & Pathology in Korean Medicine
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2020
  • Previous studies have reported an association between poor sleep and various symptoms and diseases, such as fatigue, obesity, depression, and anxiety. The effects of poor sleep may differ by age and sex. In addition, sleep characteristics and their effects may vary according to Sasang constitutional type. The aim of this study was to investigate the associations between sleep quality, fatigue, and quality of life and to assess whether these differ by constitutional type. Participants were individuals aged 40-69 years living in two Korean communities in 2012-2014. Sleep quality, fatigue, and quality of life were measured using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), the Fatigue Severity Scale, and the 12-item Short Form Health Survey, respectively. The effects of total PSQI score and PSQI component scores were analyzed using a generalized additive model. A Korean Sasang constitutional diagnostic questionnaire was used to assess Sasang constitution. Data for 5,793 participants were analyzed. Poor sleep quality was related to greater fatigue, and lower physical and mental quality of life. The PSQI components including subjective sleep quality, sleep latency, sleep disturbances, use of sleep medications, and daytime dysfunction were associated with fatigue and physical and mental quality of life. Sleep quality was significantly lower in So-Eum compared to So-Yang and Tae-Eum. PSQI component scores for fatigue and quality of life differed significantly by Sasang constitution: for Tae-Eum, sleep latency and use of sleep medications; for So-Eum, daytime dysfunction; and for So-Yang, use of sleep medications and daytime dysfunction. The effects of different aspects of sleep quality differ by Sasang constitution. To improve sleep quality, interventions need to be tailored to constitutional type.

Examining the factors influencing leaf disease intensity of Kalopanax septemlobus (Thunb. ex Murray) Koidzumi (Araliaceae) over multiple spatial scales: from the individual, forest stand, to the regions in the Japanese Archipelago

  • Sakaguchi, Shota;Yamasaki, Michimasa;Tanaka, Chihiro;Isagi, Yuji
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.359-365
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    • 2012
  • We investigated leaf disease intensity of Kalopanax septemlobus (prickly castor oil tree) caused by the parasitic fungus Mycosphaerella acanthopanacis, in thirty natural host populations in the Japanese Archipelago. The disease intensity observed for individual trees were analyzed using a generalized additive model as a function of tree size, tree density, climatic terms and spatial trend surface. Individual tree size and conspecific tree density were shown to have significant negative and positive effects on disease intensity, respectively. The findings suggest that the probability of disease infection is partly determined by dispersal of infection agents (ascospores) from the fallen leaves on the ground, which can be enhanced by aggregation of host trees in a forest stand. Regional-scale spatial bias was also present in disease intensity; the populations in northern Japan and southern Kyushu were more severely infected by the fungus than those in southwestern Honshu and Shikoku. Regional variation of disease intensity was explained by both climatic factors and a trend surface term, with a latitudinal cline detected, which increases towards the north. Further research should be conducted in order to understand all of the factors generating the latitudinal cline detected in this study.