• 청정기술
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.138-146
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• 2022

Electricity has become a factor that dramatically affects the market economy. The day-ahead system marginal price determines electricity prices, and system marginal price forecasting is critical in maintaining energy management systems. There have been several studies using mathematics and machine learning models to forecast the system marginal price, but few studies have been conducted to develop, compare, and analyze various machine learning and deep learning models based on a data-driven framework. Therefore, in this study, different machine learning algorithms (i.e., autoregressive-based models such as the autoregressive integrated moving average model) and deep learning networks (i.e., recurrent neural network-based models such as the long short-term memory and gated recurrent unit model) are considered and integrated evaluation metrics including a forecasting test and information criteria are proposed to discern the optimal forecasting model. A case study of South Korea using long-term time-series system marginal price data from 2016 to 2021 was applied to the developed framework. The results of the study indicate that the autoregressive integrated moving average model (R-squared score: 0.97) and the gated recurrent unit model (R-squared score: 0.94) are appropriate for system marginal price forecasting. This study is expected to contribute significantly to energy management systems and the suggested framework can be explicitly applied for renewable energy networks.

• 시스템엔지니어링학술지
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.18-31
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• 2023

Exploring artificial intelligence and machine learning for nuclear safety has witnessed increased interest in recent years. To contribute to this area of research, a machine learning model capable of accurately predicting nuclear power plant response with minimal computational cost is proposed. To develop a robust machine learning model, the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) approach was used to generate a database to train three models and select the best of the three. The BEPU analysis was performed by coupling Dakota platform with the best estimate thermal hydraulics code RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD 3.4. The Code Scaling Applicability and Uncertainty approach was adopted, along with Wilks' theorem to obtain a statistically representative sample that satisfies the USNRC 95/95 rule with 95% probability and 95% confidence level. The generated database was used to train three models based on Recurrent Neural Networks; specifically, Long Short-Term Memory, Gated Recurrent Unit, and a hybrid model with Long Short-Term Memory coupled to Convolutional Neural Network. In this paper, the System Engineering approach was utilized to identify requirements, stakeholders, and functional and physical architecture to develop this project and ensure success in verification and validation activities necessary to ensure the efficient development of ML meta-models capable of predicting of the nuclear power plant response.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제67권11호
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• pp.1536-1541
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• 2018

For effective electricity consumption in urban railway station such as peak load shaving, it is important to know each electrical load pattern by various usage. The total electricity consumption in the urban railway substation is already measured in Korea, but the electricity consumption for each usage is not measured. The author proposed the deep learning method to estimate the electrical load pattern for each usage in the urban railway substation with public data such as weather data. GRU (gated recurrent unit), a variation on the LSTM (long short-term memory), was used, which aims to solve the vanishing gradient problem of standard a RNN (recursive neural networks). The optimal model was found and the estimation results with that were assessed.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제26권5호
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• pp.497-506
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• 2019

Forecasting the U.S. employment level is made using machine learning methods of the artificial neural network: deep neural network, long short term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU). We consider the big data of the federal reserve economic data among which 105 important macroeconomic variables chosen by McCracken and Ng (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 34, 574-589, 2016) are considered as predictors. We investigate the influence of the two statistical issues of the dimension reduction and time series differencing on the machine learning forecast. An out-of-sample forecast comparison shows that (LSTM, GRU) with differencing performs better than the autoregressive model and the dimension reduction improves long-term forecasts and some short-term forecasts.

• 전기전자학회논문지
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.1011-1016
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• 2020

We propose a framework called Stacked Gated Recurrent Unit - Infrequent Residual Analysis (SG-IRA) that detects anomalies in time-series data that can be trained on streams of raw sensor data without any pre-labeled dataset. To enable such unsupervised learning, SG-IRA includes an estimation model that uses a stacked Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) structure and an analysis method that detects anomalies based on the difference between the estimated value and the actual measurement (residual). SG-IRA's residual analysis method dynamically adapts the detection threshold from the population using frequency analysis, unlike the baseline model that relies on a constant threshold. In this paper, SG-IRA is evaluated using the industrial control systems (ICS) datasets. SG-IRA improves the detection performance (F1 score) by 5.9% compared to the baseline model.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제56권9호
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• pp.3594-3601
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• 2024

It is difficult to detect a small-scale leakage in a nuclear power plant (NPP) quickly and take appropriate action. Delaying these procedures can have adverse effects on NPPs. In this paper, we propose leak flow rate prediction using the bidirectional gated recurrent unit (Bi-GRU) method to detect leakage quickly and accurately in small-scale leakage situations because large-scale leak rates are known to be predicted accurately. The data were acquired by simulating small loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA) or small-scale leakage situations using the modular accident analysis program (MAAP) code. In addition, to improve prediction performance, data were collected by distinguishing the break sizes in more detail. In addition, the prediction accuracy was improved by performing both LOCA diagnosis and leak flow rate prediction in small LOCA situations. The prediction model developed using the Bi-GRU showed a superior prediction performance compared with other artificial intelligence methods. Accordingly, the accurate and effective prediction model for small-scale leakage situations proposed herein is expected to support operators in decision-making and taking actions.

• 전기전자학회논문지
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.120-126
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• 2019

최근 에너지 인터넷에서 지능형 원격검침 인프라를 이용하여 확보된 대량의 전력사용데이터를 기반으로 효과적인 전력수요 예측을 위해 다양한 기계학습기법에 관한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 전력량 데이터와 같은 시계열 데이터에 대해 효율적으로 패턴인식을 수행하는 인공지능 네트워크인 Gated Recurrent Unit(GRU)을 기반으로 딥 러닝 모델을 제안하고, 실제 가정의 전력사용량 데이터를 토대로 예측 성능을 분석한다. 제안한 학습 모델의 예측 성능과 기존의 Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) 인공지능 네트워크 기반의 전력량 예측 성능을 비교하며, 성능평가 지표로써 Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Forecast Skill Score, Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Normalized Mean Bias Error (NMBE)를 이용한다. 실험 결과에서 GRU기반의 제안한 시계열 데이터 예측 모델의 전력량 수요 예측 성능이 개선되는 것을 확인한다.

• 한국음향학회지
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• 제42권4호
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• pp.345-356
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• 2023

수동소나의 표적신호는 수초 내 세기의 변화를 갖는 협대역 고조파 특성과 로이드 거울 효과에 의한 장시간 주파수 변이 특성을 나타낸다. 본 논문에서는 지역 및 전역적 시계열 특징을 학습하는 게이트 순환 유닛 기반의 신호분류 알고리즘을 제안한다. 제안하는 알고리즘은 게이트 순환 유닛을 이용한 다층 네트워크를 구성하고 확장된 연결을 통해 지역 및 전역적 시계열 특징들을 추출한다. 이후 어텐션 메커니즘을 학습하여 시계열 특징들을 가중하고 수동소나 신호를 분류한다. 공개된 수중 음향 데이터를 이용한 실험에서 제안된 네트워크는 96.50 %의 우수한 분류 정확도를 보였다. 이러한 결과는 기존의 잔차 연결된 게이트 순환 유닛 네트워크과 비교하여 4.17 % 높은 분류 정확도를 갖는다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제56권6호
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• pp.2343-2351
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• 2024

Accurately predicting the thermal hydraulic parameters of a transient reactor core under different working conditions is the first step toward reactor safety. Mass flow rate and temperature are important parameters of core thermal hydraulics, which have often been modeled as time series prediction problems. This study aims to achieve accurate and continuous prediction of core thermal hydraulic parameters under instantaneous conditions, as well as test the feasibility of a newly constructed gated recurrent unit (GRU) model based on the soft attention mechanism for core parameter predictions. Herein, the China Experimental Fast Reactor (CEFR) is used as the research object, and CEFR 1/2 core was taken as subject to carry out continuous predictive analysis of thermal parameters under transient conditions., while the subchannel analysis code named SUBCHANFLOW is used to generate the time series of core thermal-hydraulic parameters. The GRU model is used to predict the mass flow and temperature time series of the core. The results show that compared to the adaptive radial basis function neural network, the GRU network model produces better prediction results. The average relative error for temperature is less than 0.5 % when the step size is 3, and the prediction effect is better within 15 s. The average relative error of mass flow rate is less than 5 % when the step size is 10, and the prediction effect is better in the subsequent 12 s. The GRU model not only shows a higher prediction accuracy, but also captures the trends of the dynamic time series, which is useful for maintaining reactor safety and preventing nuclear power plant accidents. Furthermore, it can provide long-term continuous predictions under transient reactor conditions, which is useful for engineering applications and improving reactor safety.

• 정보과학회 컴퓨팅의 실제 논문지
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• 제23권5호
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• pp.316-321
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• 2017

온라인 방식의 한글 필기체 인식 문제를 분석하고 순환신경망 기반의 해법을 모색한다. 한글 낱글자 인식 문제를 순서데이터 레이블링의 관점에서 서열 분류, 구간 분류, 시간별 분류의 세 단계로 구분하여 각각에 대한 해법을 살펴보며, 한글의 구성 원리를 고려한 해결 방안을 정리한다. 한글 2350글자에 대한 온라인 필기체 데이터에 GRU(gated recurrent unit)의 다층 구조를 가지는 서열 분류모델을 적용한 결과, 낱글자 인식 정확도는 86.2%, 초 중 종성 구성에 따른 6가지 유형 분류 정확도는 98.2%로 측정되었다. 유형 분류 모델로 획의 진행에 따른 유형 변화 역시 높은 정확도로 인식하는 결과를 통해, 순환신경망을 이용하여 순서 데이터에서 한글의 구조와 같은 고차원적 지식을 학습할 수 있음을 확인하였다.