• Title/Summary/Keyword: Gap Risk

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Asset Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Risk in China (资产价格波动对中国宏观经济风险的影响)

  • Jishi, Piao;Mengjiao, Liu
    • Anayses & Alternatives
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.135-157
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    • 2019
  • The linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes are long-standing issue to both economists and monetary authorities. This paper explores the impact of asset prices on output and price in China. It focuses on the impacts of asset prices on the low quantiles of GDP gap and high quantiles of price gaprespectively. The main findings are the following: the influence of stock price gap, stock returns, and money growth on the different quantile of GDP gap and price gap are noticeable different, and there are significant impacts on the left tail of GDP gap distribution and on the right tail of price gap distribution. This implies that the results coming from simple regression will underestimate the economic risk imposed by asset price volatility. Moreover, these results also provide the caveat that one should cautiously distinguish the meaning of asset price gap and asset price growth rate and use them, through their contents are similar in some sense. One implication for monetarypolicy is that authority should interpret the relationship between asset prices and macro-economy in wider perspectives, and make the policy decision taking the impacts of asset prices on the tails of economy.

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A Study on the Influence of Women's Economic Risk Perception on the Fertility Gap (여성의 경제생활 위험인식이 출산 격차에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Yun-tae
    • 한국사회정책
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.219-241
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of women 's perception of economic risk on the fertility gap. This study analyzed how the economic risks such as the risk of unemployment and poverty, the risk of housing insecurity, the risk of financial instability and the risk of economic downturn affects the gap between the actual number of children and the ideal number of children. For this purpose, exploratory factor analysis, reliability analysis, correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis were performed using the KGSS(Korean General Social Survey) 2014 dataset. The result of the analysis shows that women who perceived economic risk seriously had fewer children but had a higher fertility gap. This study suggested policy suggestions based on the above results.

The Short-run and Long-run Dynamics Between Liquidity and Real Output Growth: An Empirical Study in Indonesia

  • JUMONO, Sapto;SOFYAN, Joel Faruk;SUGIYANTO, Sugiyanto;MALA, Chajar Matari Fath
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.595-605
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    • 2021
  • The objectives of this research are to see if the phenomena of "demand following" and "supply leading" exist in the business cycle, as well as to look at how liquidity and output react to changes in credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and growth rate of real national output. Employing quarterly data of Maluku and North Maluku (2008-2019), this study utilizes VAR/VECM for inferential analysis. This research found three important findings. First, liquidity and output growth influenced each other in the long run. Second, the determinants of output growth for Maluku are liquidity, investment-saving gap, and inflation, while the determinants of liquidity are output-growth, the gap of investment-saving, and inflation. Third, the determinants of output growth for North Maluku are liquidity, credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and the national output-growth, while the determinants of liquidity are output-growth, credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and national output-growth. The findings of this study supported the hypothesis of demand following and supply leading theory in the Maluku and North Maluku business cycles. This study concludes that economic development would improve if supported by liquidity adequacy through increased deposit growth.

Trading Risk Reduction Effects for Currency Futures Markets (통화선물거래의 거래위험 감소효과에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Sun Woong;Park, Eun-Jin
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to show the risk reduction effects of round-the-clock trading environment. We analyse the trading results of the currency futures contracts in CME Globex which are open 23 hours a day. These include Euro FX, Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar, and British Pound from January 2005 to August 2013. We generate new price series using only daytime prices during about 7-hour period. This hypothetical "G" data series may have greater gap risk than the original "R" data series. Empirical results show the trading risk reduction effects, that is R data series have higher profits and lower risks than G data series.

Weight, Eating Habits and Dietary Self-efficacy of Middle School Girls with Eating Disorder (섭식장애 위험군 여중생의 체중, 식습관과 식이자아효능감)

  • Rhie, Hyo-Jung;Lee, Seung-Gyo;Won, Hyang-Rye
    • The Korean Journal of Community Living Science
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.283-295
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    • 2008
  • The slimness favored trend made students shape up body image by weight control using restrained eating. Many students especially female ones tend to be in eating disorder status. The aim of this study was to find the relation between weight, eating habits and dietary self efficacy in the selected middle school girl students group with high risk eating disorder (7.9%) and the one with low risk eating disorder (24.1%). This study was conducted by EAT-26 questionnaire method and all the data was analyzed by SAS (Statistical Analysis System) program. The results were as follows; The physical condition of eating disorder students (159.5cm height, 50.7kg weight and 97.4% PIBW) was higher and bigger than that of normal students(158.2 cm, 47.2 kg, and 92.6% PIBW). Weight control experience in the high risk group (69.4%) was significantly more frequent than normal group (p<0.001). The gap between actual body weight and desired weight was higher in high risk eating disorder group than in normal group (p<0.001). Dietary self-efficacy score of middle school female students in the high risk eating disorder group was high when they were in temper, in confusion, and after argument. However, when they were in cooking (p<0.01), with friends (p<0.05), in assembling dishes (p<0.01), and with family (p<0.05) the dietary self-efficacy score of high risk group was lower than that of normal group. In the high risk eating disorder group, eating speed was often faster (p<0.05) and overeating rate (p<0.01) was higher than in normal group. In general, EAT-26 score was correlated positively with gap weight, but negatively correlated with dietary self efficacy score(p<0.01). Gap weight and dietary self efficacy were significantly different in normal group. however, there was no relation in high risk eating disorder group. Under the circumstance of high risk eating disorder, as weight and dietary self efficacy did not affect the relation with eating disorder score, when it is determined as eating disorder some other factors besides weight and diet self efficacy seem to affect the eating disorder score. In conclusion, the factors related with eating disorder were gap weight and some items of dietary self efficacy. Thus, correct understanding of healthy weight and dietary self efficacy enhancement require the development of nutrition education contents and the practice of nutrition education.

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Planning Controls for Land Use Safety (토지이용의 위험성 제어계획 -사용 밀도에 따른 기준치 설정의 접근방법-)

  • 노삼규
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.20-27
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    • 1996
  • This paper discussed the limit of existing safety controls where the use of land around hazardous industry. There is a gap between engineering evaluation of acceptable criteria for loss reduction and risk exposure to the areas of high risk outside plants from the aspects of risk perception. The paper performed how land use safety could be designed between the density of uses with the duration of risk exposure by type of land use. It concluded the needs of multi-dimensional presentation for an appropriate risk controls on existing and future land use safety.

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Optimal Portfolio Models for an Inefficient Market

  • GINTING, Josep;GINTING, Neshia Wilhelmina;PUTRI, Leonita;NIDAR, Sulaeman Rahman
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2021
  • This research attempts to formulate a new mean-risk model to replace the Markowitz mean-variance model by altering the risk measurement using ARCH variance instead of the original variance. In building the portfolio, samples used are closing prices of Indonesia Composite Stock Index and Indonesia Composite Bonds Index from 2013 to 2018. This study is a qualitative study using secondary data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange and Indonesia Bonds Pricing Agency. This research found that Markowitz's model is still superior when utilized in daily data, while the mean-ARCH model is appropriate with wider gap data like monthly observation. The Historical return has also proven to be more appropriate as a benchmark in selecting an optimal portfolio rather than a risk-free rate in an inefficient market. Therefore Mean-ARCH is more appropriate when utilized under data that have a wider gap between the period. The research findings show that the portfolio combination produced is inefficient due to the market inefficiency indicated by the meager return of the stock, while bears notable standard deviation. Therefore, the researcher of this study proposed to replace the risk-free rate as a benchmark with the historical return. The Historical return proved to be more realistic than the risk-free rate in inefficient market conditions.

Searching for the Cause of the Gender Gap in Employment Losses during the COVID-19 Crisis

  • KIM, JIYEON
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.53-79
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    • 2021
  • The recession caused by the COVID-19 crisis has features that could disproportionately harm female employment. Risk of infection and social distancing measures may have disrupted jobs in face-to-face industries, which have traditionally hired more women than men. School closures and a consequent increase in childcare and homeschooling demands may have discouraged labor market participation by working mothers. Using the Economically Active Population Survey, I examine how female employment was affected by each factor. I find that the gender gap in the Employment to Non-participation (E to N) transition rates is twice as large as the gap in the Employment to Unemployment (E to U) transition rates. Women's overrepresentation in the face-to-face industries accounts for most of the gap in the E to U transition but only a third of the gap in the E to N transition. The rise in non-participation is especially pronounced among married women aged 39-44, the group most likely to have elementary-school-age children.

Accident Analysis and Usage Actual Condition about Roller (롤러기 재해분석 및 사용실태 조사)

  • Choi, Jin-Woo;Shin, Woon-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.16-21
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to try to find the risk of roller(mixing mill) in working site. In order to achieve the purpose, accident analysis and survey was carried out. This analysis revealed that average of loss days is 334.3 by roller jamming accident and 229.2 by other causes. It means jamming accident entails serious bodily harm. According to our research, we realize that most of rollers have some risk of the jamming accidents. It is simply because the roll gap in the roller is not more than 10cm. It also does not meet minimum distance so as to avoid the risk for jamming accident by KS. Furthermore, 28% of rollers have only one switch and 40% of rollers have two switches operating emergence stop equipment so as to reduce the risk of jamming accidents. Therefore, we presume that it is very difficult to turn on the switch of emergence stop equipment when they confront the accident because most of engineers are working alone.