• Title/Summary/Keyword: GROW model

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The Economic Effects of Oil Tariff Reduction of Korea-GCC FTA based on VAR Model (VAR모형을 활용한 한-GCC FTA 체결 시 원유관세 인하의 경제적 효과 분석)

  • KIM, Da-Som;RA, Hee-Ryang
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.23-51
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    • 2016
  • This study analyzed the expected economic effects of the Korea-GCC FTA and sought strategies for industrial cooperation. To see the economic effects of Korea-GCC FTA, we analysed the effect of the oil tariff reduction of economy by Vector Autoregression(VAR) model. The estimation results shows that following the abolishment of the tariff on crude oil imports, GDP, GNI and consumption are expected to grow by 0.212%, 0.389% and 0.238%, respectively. Meanwhile, investment, export and import are estimated to drop by 0.462%, 0.413% and 0.342%, respectively. As for prices, producer prices are to rise by 6.356%p, whereas consumer prices fall by 2.996%p. In short, the Korea-GCC FTA and resultant abolishment of the tariff on crude oil imports followed by the decline in crude oil prices will result in declining prices whilst macroeconomic indices, such as GDP, GNI and consumption, will increase exerting positive effects on domestic economic growth. Also, it is necessary to proactively respond to GCC member states' industrial diversification policies for FTA-based industrial cooperation to diversify the sources of crude oil and natural gas imports for further resource risk management.

Major environmental factors and traits of invasive alien plants determining their spatial distribution

  • Oh, Minwoo;Heo, Yoonjeong;Lee, Eun Ju;Lee, Hyohyemi
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.277-286
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    • 2021
  • Background: As trade increases, the influx of various alien species and their spread to new regions are prevalent and no longer a special problem. Anthropogenic activities and climate changes have made the distribution of alien species out of their native range common. As a result, alien species can be easily found anywhere, and they have nothing but only a few differences in intensity. The prevalent distribution of alien species adversely affects the ecosystem, and a strategic management plan must be established to control them effectively. To this end, hot spots and cold spots were analyzed according to the degree of distribution of invasive alien plants, and major environmental factors related to hot spots were found. We analyzed the 10,287 distribution points of 126 species of alien plants collected through the national survey of alien species by the hierarchical model of species communities (HMSC) framework. Results: The explanatory and fourfold cross-validation predictive power of the model were 0.91 and 0.75 as AUC values, respectively. The hot spots of invasive plants were found in the Seoul metropolitan area, Daegu metropolitan city, Chungcheongbuk-do Province, southwest shore, and Jeju island. Generally, the hot spots were found where the higher maximum temperature of summer, precipitation of winter, and road density are observed, but temperature seasonality, annual temperature range, precipitation of the summer, and distance to river and sea were negatively related to the hot spots. According to the model, the functional traits accounted for 55% of the variance explained by the environmental factors. The species with higher specific leaf areas were more found where temperature seasonality was low. Taller species preferred the bigger annual temperature range. The heavier seed mass was only preferred when the max temperature of summer exceeded 29 ℃. Conclusions: In this study, hot spots were places where 2.1 times more alien plants were distributed on average than non-hot spots (33.5 vs 15.7 species). The hot spots of invasive plants were expected to appear in less stressful climate conditions, such as low fluctuation of temperature and precipitation. Also, the disturbance by anthropogenic factors or water flow had positive influences on the hot spots. These results were consistent with the previous reports about the ruderal or competitive strategies of invasive plants instead of the stress-tolerant strategy. The functional traits are closely related to the ecological strategies of plants by shaping the response of species to various environmental filters, and our result confirmed this. Therefore, in order to effectively control alien plants, it is judged that the occurrence of disturbed sites in which alien plants can grow in large quantities is minimized, and the river management of waterfronts is required.

Integrating AI Generative Art and Gamification in an Art Education Model to Enhance Creative Thinking (AI 생성예술과 게임화 요소가 통합된 미술 교육 모델 개발 : 창의적 사고 향상)

  • Li Jun;Kim Yoojin
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.425-433
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    • 2023
  • In this study, we developed a virtual artist play lesson model using gamification concepts and AI-generated art programs to foster creative thinking in freshman art majors. Targeting first-year students in the Digital Media Art Department at Sichuan Film & Television University in China, this course aims to alleviate fear of artistic creation and enhance problem-solving abilities. The educational model consists of four stages: persona creation, creative writing, text visualization, and virtual exhibitions. Through persona creation, students established their artist identities, and by introducing game-like elements into writing experiences, they discovered their latent creativity. Using AI-generated art programs for text visualization, students gained confidence in their creations, and in the virtual exhibitions, they were able to enhance their self-esteem as artists by appreciating and evaluating each other's works. This educational model offers a new approach to promoting creative thinking and problem-solving skills while increasing learner engagement and interest. Based on these research findings, we expect that by developing and implementing educational strategies that cultivate creative thinking, more students will grow their artistic capacities and creativity, benefiting not only art majors but also students from various fields.

A Study on the Core Competency of Dance Festival Using VRIO Model (VRIO모델 분석을 활용한 춤 축제 핵심역량 도출)

  • Kwak, Ji-Hye
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.13 no.8
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    • pp.77-91
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    • 2019
  • As of 2019, a report by the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism showed that 884 diverse regional festivals are being held in the country. While there are successful festivals with large audience numbers and local economic effects, there are many festivals that only waste local budgets. Against this backdrop, the question of this study is "What are the key competences of a successful dance festival utilizing the VRIO model?" The development process and success factors of the success dance festival at home and abroad were analyzed in order to explore the key competences and specialization measures of the festival that our dance festival can take off as a successful dance festival. The purpose of the study is to examine what is the source of competitiveness of the regional festival through VRIO model, which can identify the key competencies of the festival to grow into a successful dance festival, and to derive the key competencies of the festival through the interview of the expert group(Focus Group Interview) to apply the development measures of our country's dance festival. According to the analysis, festival experts view the success factors of local festivals from various perspectives based on their empirical knowledge. The key competencies priority was 1. Theme, 2. the festival organization and professional personnel management, 3. The results came in the order of residents' participation. And the successful domestic and foreign dance festivals had their own core competencies. Growing up as a successful festival through festival management, which is worth no other festival, difficult to emulate, rare and difficult to replace, is seen as the biggest key to leading the regional festival to the world festival.

Three Qualities of OTT Services: A Mixed Methods Approach (OTT 서비스의 세 가지 질적 요소: 혼합적 연구방법을 통한 접근)

  • Jae Sun Yoo;Jaecheol Park;Hyun Jun Jeon;Jai-Yeol Son
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.59-87
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    • 2022
  • Since over-the-top (OTT) service has emerged as a new way of consuming video contents, OTT markets grow exponentially and the competition among the OTT services becomes intense. Only limited systematic research effort has been paid to understand why users subscribe such OTT services among other services. Therefore, we used developmental sequential mixed methods approach to find out the quality factors and their effect on post-subscription experiences and continuance intention. In the qualitative study, we derived six factors which a user considers important to continue the subscription. Based on the explored factors, we hypothesized a research model with modified three qualities from ISSM. The proposed research model was validated through quantitative research, a survey of 226 OTT service users in South Korea, using structural equation modeling. The results indicated that content quality is the key factor affecting both perceived enjoyment and satisfaction whereas system quality affects satisfaction, and service quality only affects enjoyment. Enjoyment affects satisfaction which sequentially affects continuance usage intention. This study contributes to research by modifying ISSM through mixed methods. It also provides OTT service providers with insight to enhance users' post experience and continuance intention to use the service through qualities derived from the interview.

Deep Learning-based UWB Distance Measurement for Wireless Power Transfer of Autonomous Vehicles in Indoor Environment (실내환경에서의 자율주행차 무선 전력 전송을 위한 딥러닝 기반 UWB 거리 측정)

  • Hye-Jung Kim;Yong-ju Park;Seung-Jae Han
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 2024
  • As the self-driving car market continues to grow, the need for charging infrastructure is growing. However, in the case of a wireless charging system, stability issues are being raised because it requires a large amount of power compared with conventional wired charging. SAE J2954 is a standard for building autonomous vehicle wireless charging infrastructure, and the standard defines a communication method between a vehicle and a power transmission system. SAE J2954 recommends using physical media such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and UWB as a wireless charging communication method for autonomous vehicles to enable communication between the vehicle and the charging pad. In particular, UWB is a suitable solution for indoor and outdoor charging environments because it exhibits robust communication capabilities in indoor environments and is not sensitive to interference. In this standard, the process for building a wireless power transmission system is divided into several stages from the start to the completion of charging. In this study, UWB technology is used as a means of fine alignment, a process in the wireless power transmission system. To determine the applicability to an actual autonomous vehicle wireless power transmission system, experiments were conducted based on distance, and the distance information was collected from UWB. To improve the accuracy of the distance data obtained from UWB, we propose a Single Model and Multi Model that apply machine learning and deep learning techniques to the collected data through a three-step preprocessing process.

Export Prediction Using Separated Learning Method and Recommendation of Potential Export Countries (분리학습 모델을 이용한 수출액 예측 및 수출 유망국가 추천)

  • Jang, Yeongjin;Won, Jongkwan;Lee, Chaerok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.69-88
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    • 2022
  • One of the characteristics of South Korea's economic structure is that it is highly dependent on exports. Thus, many businesses are closely related to the global economy and diplomatic situation. In addition, small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) specialized in exporting are struggling due to the spread of COVID-19. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a model to forecast exports for next year to support SMEs' export strategy and decision making. Also, this study proposed a strategy to recommend promising export countries of each item based on the forecasting model. We analyzed important variables used in previous studies such as country-specific, item-specific, and macro-economic variables and collected those variables to train our prediction model. Next, through the exploratory data analysis(EDA) it was found that exports, which is a target variable, have a highly skewed distribution. To deal with this issue and improve predictive performance, we suggest a separated learning method. In a separated learning method, the whole dataset is divided into homogeneous subgroups and a prediction algorithm is applied to each group. Thus, characteristics of each group can be more precisely trained using different input variables and algorithms. In this study, we divided the dataset into five subgroups based on the exports to decrease skewness of the target variable. After the separation, we found that each group has different characteristics in countries and goods. For example, In Group 1, most of the exporting countries are developing countries and the majority of exporting goods are low value products such as glass and prints. On the other hand, major exporting countries of South Korea such as China, USA, and Vietnam are included in Group 4 and Group 5 and most exporting goods in these groups are high value products. Then we used LightGBM(LGBM) and Exponential Moving Average(EMA) for prediction. Considering the characteristics of each group, models were built using LGBM for Group 1 to 4 and EMA for Group 5. To evaluate the performance of the model, we compare different model structures and algorithms. As a result, it was found that the separated learning model had best performance compared to other models. After the model was built, we also provided variable importance of each group using SHAP-value to add explainability of our model. Based on the prediction model, we proposed a second-stage recommendation strategy for potential export countries. In the first phase, BCG matrix was used to find Star and Question Mark markets that are expected to grow rapidly. In the second phase, we calculated scores for each country and recommendations were made according to ranking. Using this recommendation framework, potential export countries were selected and information about those countries for each item was presented. There are several implications of this study. First of all, most of the preceding studies have conducted research on the specific situation or country. However, this study use various variables and develops a machine learning model for a wide range of countries and items. Second, as to our knowledge, it is the first attempt to adopt a separated learning method for exports prediction. By separating the dataset into 5 homogeneous subgroups, we could enhance the predictive performance of the model. Also, more detailed explanation of models by group is provided using SHAP values. Lastly, this study has several practical implications. There are some platforms which serve trade information including KOTRA, but most of them are based on past data. Therefore, it is not easy for companies to predict future trends. By utilizing the model and recommendation strategy in this research, trade related services in each platform can be improved so that companies including SMEs can fully utilize the service when making strategies and decisions for exports.

Estimation of Annual Runway Capacity for Jeju International Airport Considering Aircraft Delays (항공기 지연시간을 고려한 제주국제공항 활주로 연간용량 산정)

  • Park, Jisuk;Yun, Seokjae;Lee, Youngjong;Baik, Hojong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.214-222
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    • 2015
  • Jeju International Airport has become the most delayed airport in Korea, due to increased demand in air passengers and unexpected local weather condition. Observing the demands continuously grow for a decade, the airport is expected to be saturated in the near future. As a part of effort to prepare effective and timely measure for this expected situation, airport planners seeks the annual runway capacity, i.e., the appropriate number of flight operations in a given year with tolerable delay. In practice, the FAA formula is frequently adopted for the capacity estimation. The method, however, has intrinsic issues: 1) the hourly capacity imbedded in the formula is not clearly defined and thus the estimated value is vulnerable to be subjective judgement, and 2) the formula doesn't consider aircraft delay resulted from runway congestion. In this paper, we explain a novel method for estimating the daily runway capacity and then converting to the annual capacity taking into account the aircraft delay. In this paper, average delay of aircraft was measured using microscopic air traffic simulation model. Daily capacity of the runways were analyzed based on the simulation outputs and the method to assess the yearly capacity is introduced. Using a microscopic simulation model named TAAM, we measure the average aircraft delay at various levels of flight demand, and then estimate the practical daily runway capacity. The estimated daily and annual runway capacities of Jeju airport are about 460 operations a day which is equal to 169,000 operations year. The paper discusses how to verify the simulation model, and also suggests potential enhancement of the method.

A Practical Quality Model for Evaluation of Mobile Services Based on Mobile Internet Device (모바일 인터넷 장비에 기반한 모바일 서비스 평가를 위한 실용적인 품질모델)

  • Oh, Sang-Hun;La, Hyun-Jung;Kim, Soo-Dong
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.341-353
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    • 2010
  • Mobile Internet Device (MID) allows users to flexibly use various forms of wireless internet such as Wi-Fi, GSM, CDMA, and 3G. Using such Internet, MID users can utilize application services. MID usage is expected to grow due to the benefits of portability, Internet accessibility, and other convenience. However, it has resource constraints such as limited CPU power, small memory size, limited battery life, and small screen size. Consequently, MIDs are not capable to hold large-sized complex applications and to process a large amount of data in memory. An effective solution to remedy these limitations is to develop cloud services for the required application functionality, to deploy them on the server side, and to let MID users access the services through internet. A major concern on running cloud services for MIDs is the potential problems with low Quality of Service (QoS) due to the characteristics of MIDs. Even measuring the QoS of such services is more technically challenging than conventional quality measurements. In this paper, we first identify the characteristics of MIDs and cloud services for MIDs. Based on these observations, we derive a number of quality attributes and their metrics for measuring QoS of mobile services. A case study of applying the proposed quality model is presented to show its effectiveness and applicability.

Numerical Modeling of a Short-range Three-dimensional Flash LIDAR System Operating in a Scattering Atmosphere Based on the Monte Carlo Radiative Transfer Matrix Method (몬테 카를로 복사 전달 행렬 방법을 사용한 산란 대기에서 동작하는 단거리 3차원 플래시 라이다 시스템의 수치적 모델링)

  • An, Haechan;Na, Jeongkyun;Jeong, Yoonchan
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.59-70
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    • 2020
  • We discuss a modified numerical model based on the Monte Carlo radiative transfer (MCRT) method, i.e., the MCRT matrix method, for the analysis of atmospheric scattering effects in three-dimensional flash LIDAR systems. Based on the MCRT method, the radiative transfer function for a LIDAR signal is constructed in a form of a matrix, which corresponds to the characteristic response. Exploiting the superposition and convolution of the characteristic response matrices under the paraxial approximation, an extended computer simulation model of an overall flash LIDAR system is developed. The MCRT matrix method substantially reduces the number of tracking signals, which may grow excessively in the case of conventional Monte Carlo methods. Consequently, it can readily yield fast acquisition of the signal response under various scattering conditions and LIDAR-system configurations. Using the computational model based on the MCRT matrix method, we carry out numerical simulations of a three-dimensional flash LIDAR system operating under different atmospheric conditions, varying the scattering coefficient in terms of visible distance. We numerically analyze various phenomena caused by scattering effects in this system, such as degradation of the signal-to-noise ratio, glitches, and spatiotemporal spread and time delay of the LIDAR signals. The MCRT matrix method is expected to be very effective in analyzing a variety of LIDAR systems, including flash LIDAR systems for autonomous driving.