• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.5-9
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• 2018

Many developing countries have attempted to depreciate their currencies in order to make their products cheaper, stimulate exports, shift aggregate demand to the right, and increase aggregate output. However, currency depreciation tends to increase import prices, raise domestic inflation, reduce capital inflows, and shift aggregate supply to the left. The net impact is unclear. The paper incorporates the monetary policy function in the model, which is determined by the inflation gap, the output gap, the real effective exchange rate, and the world real interest rate. Applying an extended IS-MP-AS model (Romer, 2000), the paper finds that real depreciation raised real GDP during 1997.Q1-2005.Q3 whereas real appreciation increased real GDP during 2005.Q4-2017.Q2. In addition, a higher government debt-to-GDP ratio, a lower U.S. real federal funds rate, a higher real stock price, a lower real oil price or a lower expected inflation rate would help increase real GDP. Hence, real depreciation or real appreciation may increase or reduce aggregate output, depending upon the level of economic development. Although expansionary fiscal policy is effective in stimulating the economy, caution needs to be exercised as there may be a debt threshold beyond which a further increase in the debt-to-GDO ratio would hurt economic growth.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.134-141
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• 2019

The objective of this study was to establish whether global macroeconomic indicators affect the profitability of Korean shipping companies by using panel regression analysis. OROA (operating return on assets) and ROA (ratio of net profit to assets) were selected as proxy variables for profitability. OROA and ROA were used as dependent variables. The world GDP growth rate, interest rate, exchange rate, stock index, bunker price, freight, demand and supply of the world shipping market were set as independent variables. The size of the firm was added to the control variable. For small-sized firms, OROA was not affect by macroeconomic indicators. However, ROA was affected by variables such as interest rates, bunker prices, and size of firms. For medium-sized firms, OROA was affected by demand, supply, GDP, freight, and asset variables. However, macroeconomic indicators did not affect ROA. For large-sized firms, freight, GDP, and stock index (SCI; Shanghai Composite Index) have an effect on OROA. ROA was analyzed to be influenced by bunker price and SCI.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.103-112
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• 2013

After 1990s, the influence of construction industry has been decreased on national economy and construction business condition has been changed on economic recession and boom repeatedly. Larger fluctuation of business condition makes a forecast of it to be more difficult. Uncertainty in business prediction results in damages on construction companies and stakeholders. Therefore, study on forecasting a construction business is very important. This study suggests the Construction Industry Production Index(CIPI) to predict a construction business in consider of temperature effects. The results show that construction business is much influenced by temperature effects certainly and GDP. With the CBFM, this study examines CIPI for 2013 with two scenarios: 1)with GDP growth rate of 3.5% 2)with GDP growth rate of 2.4%. Thus, CIPI would be used as the economic state index to display the construction business conditions. Also, CIPI will be utilized as basic methodology in the impact of climate change in the construction industry.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.1-40
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• 2021

Using an unobserved components model that features trend growth as a random walk, we find that GDP trend growth rates had gradually declined from the late 1980s to early 2010s in Korea. To uncover the underlying features of the slowdown, we use trend growth accounting. A major feature appears to be a significant decline in the growth rate of labor productivity. To be specific, the first gradual decline in trend growth, which started in 1988 and continued to 1998, is associated with a drop in TFP measured in labor-augmenting units. This finding is inconsistent with the hypothesis that the slowdown in GDP trend growth can be attributed to the 1997-1998 Korean financial crisis. Sluggish investment growth is behind the second period of the gradual slowdown, from 2002 to 2012.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.33-51
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• 1999

After the 1997 currency crisis, the real estate prices had been rapidly dropped and the deregulation in the Korean real estate merket has been performed. It is analyzed whether these transactions caused a structural change in real estate market, or not. The Pettitt test shows there exists a turing point in real estate prices in 1998. It is found that the degrees of co-movement between the change in real estate prices and real GDP growth rate are increased. Consequently, the factor, represented as real GDP growth rate, determining the market fundamental of real estate prices will effect on the behavioral pattern and the real estate prices in the long run. While the factors determining the portfolio selection behaviors, such as interest rate and stock prices, will cause short-term variations.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.17-30
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• 2019

This study is to investigate the effect of real exchange rate on bilateral trade balance between Korea and ASEAN 10 countries. Using quarterly data from 1991 to 2017 the paper analyzes whether or not the real depreciation of Korea's won could improve the trade balance in the short and long term. Based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) model, the empirical results show that trade balance, GDP, and real exchange rate are all cointegrated, representing the long-run relationship among variables. In the consideration of long-run relationship, the increases in ASEAN countries' GDP could have a negative impact and Korea's GDP positive impact on trade balance between Korea and ASEAN countries unexpectedly. For the main variable, the paper did not find the long-term effect of real exchange rate on the trade balance, for the short-term effect of the real exchange rate it was found that there exists the J-curve effect only in the case of Vietnam and Brunei. Therefore, these results imply that the intended policy concerning the exchange rate in the free-floating exchange rate system could be limited to improve the trade balance between Korea and ASEAN countries.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.957-962
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• 2005

Since the nation's currency crisis in 1997. Korea reioined the USD 10.000 per capita income group after collapse of per capita income to USD 6.000 due to the minus GDP growth and sharp hike of exchange rate. It has also been expected for Korea to achieve per capita income of USD 20.000. provided that it maintains $10\%$ export increase rate. $5\%$ nominal GDP growth rate. $3\%$ consumer price index. $2\%$ increase in KRW/USD exchange rate. and $1\%$ net population increase rate. Yet. it should be noted that the nation needs to fulfill the necessity of various SOC infrastructure investment in order to achieve this goal. This paper will address the prospects for the future direction of the national SOC policies through the historical examination of the industrialized nations. such as U.S.A.. U.K.. France. and Japan. with regard to the relationships between economic growth and SOC provision. Some efforts will be made to forecast the optimal budget allocation of the national SOC, in particular, between highway and railway sectors.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.39-50
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• 2022

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine how Korea's macroeconomic factors, such as GDP, CPI, Export, Import, Unemployment rate and USD/KRW exchange rate, are affected by the oil price shocks. Design/methodology/approach - This study used monthly and quarterly time-series data of each variable for the period 1983 to 2022, consisting of two sub-periods, to employ Granger causality test and GARCH method in order to identify the role of the oil price movement in macroeconomic factors in Korea. Findings - Korea's currency rate to the US dollar is negatively correlated with the price change of crude oil while the GDP change is positively correlated with the price change of crude oil with strong relationship between Export and Import in particular. The exchange rate and GDP growth are believed to be not correlated with the oil price change for the pre-GFC period. According to the Granger causality test, the price change in crude oil has a causal impact on CPI, Export and Import while other factors are relatively slightly affected. Transmission effect from the oil price to Export is found and there also exists volatility spillover from oil price to economic variables under examination. Comparing two sub-periods, CPI and Export volatility responds negatively to shocks in the oil price for the pre-GFC period while volatility of CPI and Unemployment reacts positively to the oil price shocks for the post-GFC period. Research implications or Originality - The findings of this study could be helpful for both domestic and international investors to build their portfolio for the risk management since rising WTI price can be interpreted as a result of global economic growth and ensuing increase in the worldwide demand of the crude oil. Consequently, the national output is expected to increase and the currency is also expected to be strong in the long run.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.75-92
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• 1997

This paper is concerned with an estimation of optimal investment of road sector in 1996-2005. The main method is a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model for Korea in which the optimal solution is derived in a recursively dynamic path. The model is composed of three main modules: the supply, the demand and the price. In this paper, the investment demand for the road is optimized with subject to national economic growth and price inflation. If the annual inflation level and the economic growth rate during 1996-2005 are set to 4.5%-5.0% and 6.0%-6.5% respectively, the optimal demand for the road investment is estimated as 155.1-180.1 trillion Won or 3.33%-3.89% of the GDP for ten years. It implies that the additional increase of the road investment by 0.61%-1.15% of the GDP is required for sustainable economic development, since the share of the road investment in the GDP of the latest 5 years has stayed around 2.27%. However, it is necessary to reduce construction investments on housing as well as to promote private financing of the road in order to maximize an efficiency of resource allocation.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.203-211
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• 2022

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has increased at an exponential rate during the last two decades. It is now a feature of emerging market economies as well. Foreign direct investment and financial development are important factors in an economy's growth. Various studies have examined the impact of foreign direct investment and financial development on economic growth in different countries and areas. However, the findings are currently inconclusive. Using updated data from 1970 to 2020, this study will examine the relationships between FDI, financial development, and economic growth in 30 rising economies.GDP is the dependent variable, while FDI, financial development, trade openness, infrastructure, exchange rate, and GDP growth are the independent factors. To estimate the panel data, we used the most recent econometric models. The study's major findings suggest that FDI and financial development are critical determinants in emerging economies' economic progress. Furthermore, multiple robustness checks supported the study's empirical findings. The results of this study include various practical recommendations for investors, governments, and policymakers, given the increased interest in global economic integration and member states' reliance on FDI as a critical aspect of sustaining prosperity.