• International Area Studies Review
• /
• v.21 no.4
• /
• pp.159-172
• /
• 2017

In a typical trend-cycle decomposition of GDP, the trend component is usually assumed to follow a random walk process. This paper considers an ARIMA trend and assesses the validity of the ARIMA trend model. I construct univariate and bivariate unobserved-components(UC) models, allowing the ARIMA trend. Estimation results using U.S. data are favorable to the ARIMA trend models. I, also, compare the forecasting performance of the UC models. Dynamic pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting exercises are implemented with recursive estimations. I find that the bivariate model outperforms the univariate model, the smoothed estimates of trend and cycle components deliver smaller forecasting errors compared to the filtered estimates, and, most importantly, allowing for the ARIMA trend can lead to statistically significant gains in forecast accuracy, providing support for the ARIMA trend model. It is worthy of notice that trend shocks play the main source of the output fluctuation if the ARIMA trend is allowed in the UC model.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.37 no.2
• /
• pp.255-263
• /
• 2024

GDP represents the total market value of goods and services produced by all economic entities, including households, businesses, and governments in a country, during a specific time period. It is a representative economic indicator that helps identify the size of a country's economy and influences government policies, so various studies are being conducted on it. This paper presents a GDP growth rate forecasting model based on a dynamic factor model using key macroeconomic indicators of G20 countries. The extracted factors are combined with various regression analysis methodologies to compare results. Additionally, traditional time series forecasting methods such as the ARIMA model and forecasting using common components are also evaluated. Considering the significant volatility of indicators following the COVID-19 pandemic, the forecast period is divided into pre-COVID and post-COVID periods. The findings reveal that the dynamic factor model, incorporating ridge regression and lasso regression, demonstrates the best performance both before and after COVID.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.14 no.5
• /
• pp.103-112
• /
• 2013

After 1990s, the influence of construction industry has been decreased on national economy and construction business condition has been changed on economic recession and boom repeatedly. Larger fluctuation of business condition makes a forecast of it to be more difficult. Uncertainty in business prediction results in damages on construction companies and stakeholders. Therefore, study on forecasting a construction business is very important. This study suggests the Construction Industry Production Index(CIPI) to predict a construction business in consider of temperature effects. The results show that construction business is much influenced by temperature effects certainly and GDP. With the CBFM, this study examines CIPI for 2013 with two scenarios: 1)with GDP growth rate of 3.5% 2)with GDP growth rate of 2.4%. Thus, CIPI would be used as the economic state index to display the construction business conditions. Also, CIPI will be utilized as basic methodology in the impact of climate change in the construction industry.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.12 no.2
• /
• pp.397-404
• /
• 1999

1997년말 발생한 외환위기 이후 불확실성의 증대로 시계열모형을 이용한 경제예측에 한계가 노정되고 있다. 이를 극복하기 위하여 경제주체의 기대(expectation)를 파악할수 있는 기업경기실사지수를 경제예측에 도입할 필요가 있다. 본고에서는 기업경기실사지수를 이용한 모형과 시계열모형을 추정하고 이들을 예측력 측면에서 비교, 분석해보았다. 분석결과 불확실성이 높았던 외환위기이후 기간에는 기업경기실사지수를 이용한 모형이 시계열모형보다 예측력면에서 우수한 것으로 나타났다.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.28 no.3
• /
• pp.437-465
• /
• 2019

In this study, we propose a new method to forecast long-term energy demand in Korea. Based on Chang et al. (2016), which models the time varying long-run relationship between electricity demand and GDP with a function coefficient panel model, we design several schemes to retain objectivity of the forecasting model. First, we select the bandwidth parameters for the income coefficient based on the out-of-sample forecasting performance. Second, we extend the income coefficient using the functional principal component analysis method. Third, we proposed a method to reflect the elasticity change patterns inherent in Korea. In the empirical analysis part, we forecasts the long-term energy demand in Korea using the proposed method to show that the proposed method generates more stable long term forecasts than the existing methods.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
• /
• 2007.07a
• /
• pp.808-809
• /
• 2007

전력수요는 경기변동과 밀접한 관련성을 가지고 동행적으로 움직이며, 전력자료는 경제자료에 비해 조기 관측되는 선행성이 있다. 본 연구에서는 GDP 전망을 위해 발전량이 유용하게 사용될 수 있는가를 살펴 보았다. 발전량과 GDP의 관련성은 그랜저 인과관계 검정을 통해서 검증해 보았으며, 발전량 자료 취득의 선행성은 선행차수를 변화시켜 보면서 관련성이 어떻게 변하는가를 살펴보았다. 실제 자료를 이용하여 분석하고, 2004년부터 2006년 기간의 전망치를 평가한 결과, 본 논문에서 살펴 보고자 했던 발전량과 GDP 사이에는 아주 높은 관련성이 있음을 확인할 수 있었고 또한 발전량 자료를 이용함으로써 실제로 GDP 전망의 예측력을 상당히 개선시킬 수 있음을 볼 수 있었다. 발전량과 GDP 사이의 관계는 시간변동계수를 가지는 공적분 및 오차수 정모형을 이용하여 모형화하였다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
• /
• 2011.02a
• /
• pp.280-280
• /
• 2011

유도결합 플라즈마를 이용한 식각 장치에서 플라즈마 균일도 향상에 대한 수많은 연구가 이뤄지고 있다. 안테나의 디자인, 인가 전력과 주파수, 안테나와 기판간의 거리, 기판과 챔버 외벽간의 거리 등 다양한 변수들이 변화되어 왔다. 또한, 최근에는 식각 균일도뿐만 아니라 식각 속도 향상에도 많은 관심이 모아지면서 유동에 영향을 주는 GDP 구조가 다시 중요해지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 300 mm 식각장치를 형상화하고, GDP의 구조와 유량비에 따라 플라즈마의 균일도에 어떻게 영향을 끼지는지 사용 유체역학 전산모사 프로그램인 CFD-ACE+를 이용하여 예측해 보았다. 안테나는 2중 직렬방식으로 안쪽과 바깥쪽의 안테나에 각기 다른 전력을 인가 할 수 있는 구조를 사용했으며, 압력은 10에서 60 mTorr까지 변화시켰다. GDP의 구조는 안쪽 입구와 바깥쪽 입구가 있으며 역시 따로 유량을 조절할 수 있도록 설계하였다. 안쪽 입구는 수직방향을 향하고 있으며, 바깥쪽 입구는 90도 이내의 각을 갖도록 꺾여 있는 것과 수평방향으로 주입할 수 있는 구조, 두 가지를 사용하였다. 유량 비율은 안쪽 입구와 바깥쪽 입구를 2:8, 5:5, 8:2로 고정하였다. 우선 GDP의 구조가 90이내의 각을 갖도록 주입되는 구조에서는 어떤 유량비율에서도 약간의 vortex가 발생했다. 수직방향의 유량이 감소될수록 기판에서 멀리서 발생했으며 강도 또한 감소했다. 기판 표면에서의 압력분포 균일도도 8:2에서 2.8%, 2:8에서 0.6%로 향상되었다. 2:8의 유량 비율에서 압력을 10에서 60 mTorr까지 향상시키면 vortex 효과는 감소되나 기판에서의 압력 균일도가 0.8%까지 약간 나빠졌다. 여기서 발생되는 vortex는 GDP 구조를 수평방향으로 주입되기 함으로서 해결할 수 있었으며, 압력 균일도도 0.2%까지 향상시킬 수 있었다. 또한, 강한 수직방향의 유량은 중심에 발생하는 플라즈마의 중앙을 밀어내는 효과를 확인했으며, 실험적 증명이 추후 연구단계로 진행될 예정이다. 식각 균일도나 식각 속도를 예측하려면 CF계열의 복잡한 가스를 사용해야하기 때문에 유량이 플라즈마에 미치는 영향을 보기 위해서 본 연구에서는 단일종인 Ar 가스만을 사용하였다. 첫 단계로 이와 같이 최적화시킨 유동조건에서 복잡한 식각가스를 이용한 플라즈마 계산은 다음 단계로 준비 중에 있다.

• Health Policy and Management
• /
• v.13 no.3
• /
• pp.91-103
• /
• 2003

The purpose of this study was to provide basic reference data for stabilization scheme of health expenditure through forecasting of health expenditure. The authors analyzed the health expenditure from 1985 to 2000 that had been calculated by Korean institute for health and social affair using transfer function model as ARIMA model with input series. They used GDP as the input series for more precise forecasting. The model of error term was identified ARIMA(2,2,0) and Portmanteau statics of residuals was not significant. Forecasting health expenditure as percent of GDP at 2010 was 6.8%, under assumption of 5% GDP increase rate. Moreover that was 7.4%, under assumption of 3% GDP increase rate and that was 6.4%, under assumption of 7% GDP increase rate.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.35 no.1
• /
• pp.77-99
• /
• 2012

This study aimed at developing a model for estimating fertility rates for Korea under some conditions. The model is expected to provide the basic information for establishing and evaluating the polices in prompt and adequate response to low fertility and population ageing. The model was established on the basis of experiences by some OECD countries in Europe, having experienced the fertility increase trend and being economically well-developed, because Korea has never experienced the steady increase in fertility rate since 1960. This study collected about 20 years' time series data for each of selected countries and applied to the regression model, which is called a 'panel analysis' to take into considerations both cross-sectional and longitudinal aspects of fertility change simultaneously. Simulation of the model for Korea and some panel countries showed a very small difference, less than 0.1, between the estimated rate and the observed rate for each year during 2006~2010. Thus, the model, as established in this study, is evaluated as accurate or well-fitted to a considerable extent.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.10 no.2
• /
• pp.46-54
• /
• 2009

In the early 90s, we had serious shortage of construction engineers for the expansion of construction market. So, Government has established the admitted engineer system in 1995. However, since year 2000, while the engineershortage has been resolved, the opposite situation has occurred: serious over-supply of construction engineers. Therefore, Government announced that would abolish the admitted engineer systems as recognized the existent admitted engineers from 2007. From this point of view, it is critical to make the accurate forecast of number of required construction engineers for providing the basis for the most appropriate policy from 2008 to 2017. This research have developed a construction engineer supply-demand forecast model based on the GDP and construction market analysis. The results of this research will be applied to the basic data that policy planner establishes the supply-demand policy of construction engineers.