• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.163-172
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• 2016

Electric load forecasting is essential for effective power system planning and operation. Complex and nonlinear relationships exist between the electric loads and their exogenous factors. In addition, time-series load data has non-stationary characteristics, such as trend, seasonality and anomalous day effects, making it difficult to predict the future loads. This paper proposes a locally-weighted polynomial neural network (LWPNN), which is a combination of a polynomial neural network (PNN) and locally-weighted regression (LWR) for daily shortterm peak load forecasting. Model over-fitting problems can be prevented effectively because PNN has an automatic structure identification mechanism for nonlinear system modeling. LWR applied to optimize the regression coefficients of LWPNN only uses the locally-weighted learning data points located in the neighborhood of the current query point instead of using all data points. LWPNN is very effective and suitable for predicting an electric load series with nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics. To confirm the effectiveness, the proposed LWPNN, standard PNN, support vector regression and artificial neural network are applied to a real world daily peak load dataset in Korea. The proposed LWPNN shows significantly good prediction accuracy compared to the other methods.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.111-119
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• 2009

A prototype GIS-based decision support system (DSS) was developed by using a database management system (DBMS), a model management system (MMS), a knowledge-based system (KBS), a graphical user interface (GUI), and a geographical information system (GIS). The method of selecting a dispersion model or a modeling scheme, originally devised by Park and Seok, was developed using our GIS-based DSS. The performances of candidate models or modeling schemes were evaluated by using a single index(statistical score) derived by applying fuzzy inference to statistical measures between the measured and predicted concentrations. The fumigation dispersion model performed better than the models such as industrial source complex short term model(ISCST) and atmospheric dispersion model system(ADMS) for the prediction of the ground level $SO_2$ (1 hr) concentration in a coastal area. However, its coincidence level between actual and calculated values was poor. The neural network models were found to improve the accuracy of predicted ground level $SO_2$ concentration significantly, compared to the fumigation models. The GIS-based DSS may serve as a useful tool for selecting the best prediction model, even for complex terrains.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.647-669
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• 2016

Multiple attribute for decision making including user preference will increase the complexity of route selection process. Various approaches have been proposed to solve the optimal route selection problem. In this paper, multi attribute decision making (MADM) algorithms such as Simple Additive Weighting (SAW), Weighted Product Method (WPM), Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and Total Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) methods have been proposed for acoustic signature based optimal route selection to facilitate user with better quality of service. The traffic density state conditions (very low, low, below medium, medium, above medium, high and very high) on the road segment is the occurrence and mixture weightings of traffic noise signals (Tyre, Engine, Air Turbulence, Exhaust, and Honks etc) is considered as one of the attribute in decision making process. The short-term spectral envelope features of the cumulative acoustic signals are extracted using Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Classifier (ANFC) is used to model seven traffic density states. Simple point method and AHP has been used for calculation of weights of decision parameters. Numerical results show that WPM, AHP and TOPSIS provide similar performance.

• Korean Journal of Child Studies
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.283-297
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• 1997

This study examined the development of verbatim and gist memory, and the effects of the relevance and inferential direction of the task on the development of the verbatim and gist memory. The subjects were second, fourth and sixth grade children in elementary schools. Each age group consisted of forty children. Eight sets of inference tasks were administered to each subject. In the task, the relevent and the extraneous sentences were mixed for inferential direction. The sentences that described 'which term is more' were inserted in half of the task and the sentences that indicated the direct numbers were included in the other half of the task. The task was presented by the audio tape in which instruction was recorded by one speaker. Results showed that (1) age differences in verbatim memory were significant but age differences in gist memory were not significant. These results indicate that the processes of verbatim and gist memory are separate and independent. (2) The relevance and inferential direction of the task affect gist memory but no verbatim memory. This result also supported independence between verbatim and gist memory. It was suggested that these results can be interpreted in terms of fuzzy trace theory.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.171-174
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• 2009

Generally the neural network and the fuzzy compensative algorithm are applied to forecast the time series for power demand with a characteristic of non-linear dynamic system, but it has a few prediction errors relatively. It also makes long term forecast difficult for sensitivity on the initial condition. On this paper, we evaluate the chaotic characteristic of electrical power demand with analysis methods of qualitative and quantitative and perform a forecast simulation of electrical power demand in regular sequence, attractor reconstruction, time series forecast for multi dimension using Lyapunov exponent quantitatively. We compare simulated results with the previous method and verify that the purpose one being more practice and effective than it.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.232-237
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• 2013

The aim of this study is to structuralize a model of the factors determining the quality of nursing care perceived by the director or manager of a long-term care facilities (hospitalization of patients) using FSM(Fuzzy Structural Modeling), employed in structuralizing social systems. The results were as follows: first, quality in the top tier was shown to be connected with job commitment, commitment to the organization, work experience, care skills, knowledge about the elderly, training and education, which are factors in the middle tier; and second, the structure of the middle tier (job commitment, commitment to the organization, work experience, care skills, knowledge about the elderly, training and education) either showed a connection with the lower tier, which includes employment type, job satisfaction, leadership, relationship with users and workplace relationships, or showed a connection among the factors within. These results confirmed the following: first, care skills and knowledge about the elderly, which demonstrate the job expertise of caregivers, showed a connection with service quality based on work experience; second, job commitment in the middle tier was observed to affect various factors in the same tier such as care skills, knowledge about the elderly, training and education amongst others, and it was determined that it is an important determining factor in service quality. Lastly, a meaningful result was shown in relation to leadership. The leadership skills of the director of the facilities had a connection with the care caregivers' commitment to the organization, which had a connection with service quality. This structure showed the kind of role the director must play in order to improve service quality.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.95-105
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• 2019

The failure of company management that does not overcome the recession of shipping economy has negative impact on front-end and back-end industries in relation to shipping industry overall. This study aims to derive a measure of government policy support for win-win of ship owners and shippers by performing a survey with experts in ship owners, shippers, and port-related institutions. This study employed a consistent fuzzy preference relation (CFPR) method to provide the priority of government policies. The study results showed that out of all 14 policies, the policy perceived most important was "expansion of participation in share of shipping company or ships of shipper (0.102)" followed by "strengthening of national shipper-centered service quality (0.101)", and "providing a long-term transportation contract model of container cargo (0.085)". To recover the Korean shipping industry via win-win of ship owners and shipper, the policy enforcement is important through correct government policy establishment and priority selection. In this regard, this study contributed to proposing policies and priority of the policies. For the future study, detailed analysis on comparison of perception difference among stakeholders in the shipping industry is needed.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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• v.49 no.9
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• pp.314-321
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• 2012

Harmful gases which are generated from various rout at growth environment of livestock ban have a direct and indirect bad influence to the livestock and farmers, and also step-up breeding density and long-term exposure to the sealed environment of winter can be fatal. In this paper, we propose a gas measurement system for monitoring gases of ammonia, hydrogen sulfide, volatile organic compounds, etc. which arise from the muck. The measurement system consist of both wireless gas sensor node and gas recognition software using a Fuzzy Min-Max neural network. To evaluate the performance of suggested system, gas measurement experiments are performed in laboratory environment by using the designed wireless gas sensor node. And we show the performance through classification test for the target gases by the designed gas recognition software.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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• v.1 no.3
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• pp.249-271
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• 2014

This paper presents a unique study of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) for the maintenance decision making about a real life movable bridge. The mechanical components of movable bridges are maintained on a scheduled basis. However, it is desired to have a condition-based maintenance by taking advantage of SHM. The main objective is to track the operation of a gearbox and a rack-pinion/open gear assembly, which are critical parts of bascule type movable bridges. Maintenance needs that may lead to major damage to these components needs to be identified and diagnosed timely since an early detection of faults may help avoid unexpected bridge closures or costly repairs. The fault prediction of the gearbox and rack-pinion/open gear is carried out using two types of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs): 1) Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLP-NNs) and 2) Fuzzy Neural Networks (FNNs). Monitoring data is collected during regular opening and closing of the bridge as well as during artificially induced reversible damage conditions. Several statistical parameters are extracted from the time-domain vibration signals as characteristic features to be fed to the ANNs for constructing the MLP-NNs and FNNs independently. The required training and testing sets are obtained by processing the acceleration data for both damaged and undamaged condition of the aforementioned mechanical components. The performances of the developed ANNs are first evaluated using unseen test sets. Second, the selected networks are used for long-term condition evaluation of the rack-pinion/open gear of the movable bridge. It is shown that the vibration monitoring data with selected statistical parameters and particular network architectures give successful results to predict the undamaged and damaged condition of the bridge. It is also observed that the MLP-NNs performed better than the FNNs in the presented case. The successful results indicate that ANNs are promising tools for maintenance monitoring of movable bridge components and it is also shown that the ANN results can be employed in simple approach for day-to-day operation and maintenance of movable bridges.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.581-589
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• 2011

Generally, treated water or raw water is transported into storage reservoirs which are receiving facilities of local governments from multi-regional water supply systems. A water supply control and operation center is operated not only to manage the water facilities more economically and efficiently but also to mitigate the shortage of water resources due to the increase in water consumption. To achieve the goal, important information such as the flow-rate in the systems, water levels of storage reservoirs or tanks, and pump-operation schedule should be considered based on the resonable water demand forecasting. However, it is difficult to acquire the pattern of water demand used in local government, since the operating information is not shared between multi-regional and local water systems. The pattern of water demand is irregular and unpredictable. Also, additional changes such as an abrupt accident and frequent changes of electric power rates could occur. Consequently, it is not easy to forecast accurate water demands. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce a short-term water demands forecasting and to develop an application of the forecasting models. In this study, the forecasting simulator for water demand is developed based on mathematical and neural network methods as linear and non-linear models to implement the optimal water demands forecasting. It is shown that MLP(Multi-Layered Perceptron) and ANFIS(Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) can be applied to obtain better forecasting results in multi-regional water supply systems with a large scale and local water supply systems with small or medium scale than conventional methods, respectively.