• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
• /
• v.60 no.12
• /
• pp.2215-2220
• /
• 2011

The accurate short-term load forecasting is essential for the efficient power system operation and the system marginal price decision of the electricity market. So far, errors of load forecasting for Chuseok Holiday are very big compared with forecasting errors for the other special days. In order to improve the accuracy of load forecasting for Chuseok Holiday, selection of input data, the daily normalized load patterns and load forecasting model are investigated. The efficient data selection and daily normalized load pattern based on fuzzy linear regression model is proposed. The proposed load forecasting method for Chuseok Holiday is tested in recent 5 years from 2006 to 2010, and improved the accuracy of the load forecasting compared with the former research.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
• /
• 2000.07a
• /
• pp.298-300
• /
• 2000

This paper proposes a fuzzy linear regression algorithm based on Tanaka's theory for holiday load forecasting. The load patterns of holidays are quite different from those of ordinary weekdays. It is difficult to accurately forecast the holiday load due to the insufficiency of the load patterns compared with ordinary weekdays. The test results show that the proposed method greatly improves the forecast accuracy for holidays.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers D
• /
• v.51 no.10
• /
• pp.453-459
• /
• 2002

This paper proposes an improved algorithm of the daily peak load forecasting for Korean Thanksgiving Day and the Lunar New Year's day. So far, many studies on the short-term load forecasting have been made to improve the accuracy of the load forecasting. However, the large errors of the load forecasting occur i case of Korean Thanksgiving Day and the Lunar New Year's Day. In order to reduce the errors of the load forecasting, the fuzzy linear regression method is introduced and a good selection method of the past load pattern is presented. Test results show that the proposed algorithm improves the accuracy of the load forecasting.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
• /
• v.51 no.3
• /
• pp.109-117
• /
• 2002

High accuracy of the load forecasting for power systems improves the security of the power system and generation cost. However, the forecasting problem is difficult to handle due to the nonlinear and the random-like behavior of system loads as well as weather conditions and variation of economical environments. So far. many studies on the problem have been made to improve the prediction accuracy using deterministic, stochastic, knowledge based and artificial neural net(ANN) method. In the conventional load forecasting method, the load forecasting maximum error occurred for the holidays on Saturday and Monday. In order to reduce the load forecasting error of the daily peak load for the holidays on Saturday and Monday, fuzzy concept and linear regression theory have been adopted into the load forecasting problem. The proposed algorithm shows its good accuracy that the average percentage errors are 2.11% in 1996 and 2.84% in 1997.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2000.10a
• /
• pp.15-15
• /
• 2000

In the past couple of years, there has been increasing interest in the fusion of neural networks and fuzzy logic. Most of the existing fused models have been proposed to implement different types of fuzzy reasoning mechanisms and inevitably they suffer from the dimensionality problem when dealing with complex real-world problem. To overcome the problem, we propose the self-organizing networks with activation nodes based on fuzzy inference and polynomial function. The proposed model consists of two parts, one is fuzzy nodes which each node is operated as a small fuzzy system with fuzzy implication rules, and its fuzzy system operates with Gaussian or triangular MF in Premise part and constant or regression polynomials in consequence part. the other is polynomial nodes which several types of high-order polynomials such as linear, quadratic, and cubic form are used and are connected as various kinds of multi-variable inputs. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, time series data for gas furnace process has been applied.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
• /
• 2004.11a
• /
• pp.67-72
• /
• 2004

Support vector machine (SVM) has been very successful in pattern recognition and function estimation problems for crisp data. This paper proposes a new method to evaluate interval linear and nonlinear regression models combining the possibility and necessity estimation formulation with the principle of SVM. For data sets with crisp inputs and interval outputs, the possibility and necessity models have been recently utilized, which are based on quadratic programming approach giving more diverse spread coefficients than a linear programming one. SVM also uses quadratic programming approach whose another advantage in interval regression analysis is to be able to integrate both the property of central tendency in least squares and the possibilistic property In fuzzy regression. However this is not a computationally expensive way. SVM allows us to perform interval nonlinear regression analysis by constructing an interval linear regression function in a high dimensional feature space. In particular, SVM is a very attractive approach to model nonlinear interval data. The proposed algorithm here is model-free method in the sense that we do not have to assume the underlying model function for interval nonlinear regression model with crisp inputs and interval output. Experimental results are then presented which indicate the performance of this algorithm.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
• /
• v.14 no.7
• /
• pp.3039-3056
• /
• 2020

Beaches have many risk factors that cause various accidents, such as drifting and drowning, these accidents have many risk factors. To analyze them, in this paper, we identify beach risk factors, and define the criteria and correlation for each risk factor. Then, we generate new risk factors based on Fuzzy theory, and define Situation Awareness for each time. Finally, we propose a beach risk assessment and prediction model based on linear regression using the calculated risk result and pre-defined risk factors. We use national public data of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA). The results of the experiment showed the prediction accuracy of beach risk to be 0.90%, and the prediction accuracy of drifting and drowning accidents to be 0.89% and 0.86%, respectively. Also, through factor correlation analysis and risk factor assessment, the influence of each of the factors on beach risk can be confirmed. In conclusion, we confirmed that our proposed model can assess and predict beach risks.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
• /
• 2000.07d
• /
• pp.2946-2948
• /
• 2000

In this paper, we proposed the Fuzzy Polynomial Neural Networks(FPNN) model with fuzzy activation node. The proposed FPNN structure is generated from the mutual combination of PNN(Polynomial Neural Networks) structure and fuzzy inference system. The premise of fuzzy inference rules defines by triangular and gaussian type membership function. The fuzzy inference method uses simplified and regression polynomial inference method which is based on the consequence of fuzzy rule expressed with a polynomial such as linear, quadratic and modified quadratic equation are used. The structure of FPNN is not fixed like in conventional Neural Networks and can be generated. The design procedure to obtain an optimal model structure utilizing FPNN algorithm is shown in each stage. Gas furnace time series data used to evaluate the performance of our proposed model.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
• /
• v.28 no.3
• /
• pp.331-343
• /
• 2002

This paper proposes a fuzzy rule-based model as a means to build usability models between emotional satisfaction and design variables of consumer products. Based on a subtractive clustering algorithm, this model obtains partially overlapping rules from existing data and builds multiple local models each of which has a form of a linear regression equation. The best subset procedure and cross validation technique are used to select appropriate input variables. The proposed technique was applied to the modeling of luxuriousness, balance, and attractiveness of office chairs. For comparison, regression models were built on the same data in two different ways; one using only potentially important variables selected by the design experts, and the other using all the design variables available. The results showed that the fuzzy rule-based model had a great benefit in terms of the number of variables included in the model. They also turned out to be adequate for predicting the usability of a new product. Better yet, the information on the product classes and their satisfaction levels can be obtained by interpreting the rules. The models, when combined with the information from the regression models, are expected to help the designers gain valuable insights in designing a new product.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
• /
• v.24 no.3
• /
• pp.133-144
• /
• 1996

In order to evaluate the effectiveness of fuzzy reasoning to sensory tests, in this paper, a non-linear fuzzy system model that can estimate the general evaluator obtained from a numerical example of test of taste is constructed. And the applicability of fuzzy reasoning to sensory test is discussed on the basis of errors occurred from the estimates in combination of attributes of objects and from the results of multi-regression analysis. This paper proved that fuzzy reasoning using fuzzy If-then rules is applicable to sensory test.