The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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v.10
no.4
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pp.499-505
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2015
Trend Impact Analysis(: TIA) is an advanced forecasting tool used in futures studies for identifying, understanding and analyzing the consequences of unprecedented events on future trends. An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system is a kind of artificial neural network that integrates both neural networks and fuzzy logic principles, It is considered to be a universal estimator. In this paper, we propose an advanced mechanism to generate more justifiable estimates to the probability of occurrence of an unprecedented event as a function of time with different degrees of severity using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System(: ANFIS). The key idea of the paper is to enhance the generic process of reasoning with fuzzy logic and neural network by adding the additional step of attributes simulation, as unprecedented events do not occur all of a sudden but rather their occurrence is affected by change in the values of a set of attributes. An ANFIS approach is used to identify the occurrence and severity of an event, depending on the values of its trigger attributes. The trigger attributes can be calculated by a stochastic dynamic model; then different scenarios are generated using Monte-Carlo simulation. To compare the proposed method, a simple simulation is provided concerning the impact of river basin drought on the annual flow of water into a lake.
Shin, Man Yong;Lim, Joo Hoon;Chun, Young Woo;Ko, Yung Zu
Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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v.81
no.2
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pp.146-155
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1992
The natural mixed stand in Jindong-Ri, according to a recent study, showed the possibility of selection cutting as a silvicultural system based on the stand structure such as DBH distribution and height distribution. However, volume structure per DBH class of this stand had not a mature stand of selection cutting. In this study, wherefore, the rate of increment for DBH and volume was used to predict the future stand structure including volume distribution per DBH class. The possibility of selection cutting was then discussed using the future stand structure. From the prediction of future stand structure for 30 years per every 10 years, it could be concluded that the stand will be induced to selection cutting forest because of enough number of trees in objective DBH class and above, total volume per hectare, and the volume of large DBH class which can be harvested every year. However, this stand still did not show the structure of typical selection cutting which has the rate of 1 : 2 : 7 in the number of trees per hectare and the volume rate of 5 : 3 : 2 for large, medium, and small DBH class. This problem could be improved by appropriate silvicultural treatments.
Objectives The eye movement (EM) has been reported to play a role in enhancing the retrieval of episodic memories and reducing effects of fearful episodes in the past and worries for the futures. However, it is still unclear in the mechanism of EM in normal subjects. We examined the horizontal eye movement (HEM) effect using an aiding apparatus on mental health indices including negative and positive psychological factors, and psychophysiological measures such as heart rate variability and quantitative electroencepaholography (qEEG) in healthy subjects. Methods Twenty eight healthy subjects were recruited and randomly allocated into two groups : active HEM group and control group. The active HEM group conducted the HEM training with usual stress management audio-intervention using the apparatus inducing eye movement once a day for 14 days. The control group also conducted the same training once a day for 14 days, however, the saccadic eye movement was not included in this training. Psychological measurements, neurocognitive function tests, heart rate variability measurement and qEEG were conducted before and after the training in both groups. Results In the active HEM group, sleep status using Sleep Quality Scale (SQS) positive factors significantly increased after the training. By contrast, scores on the negative items of Psychological Well-Being Scale (PWBS), and negative items of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R) were significantly decreased after the training. The percentage of delta amplitude (1-3 Hz) in qEEG significantly decreased after the HEM training. The percentage of alpha amplitude (8-12 Hz) significantly increased after HEM training. The change of delta amplitude in the active HEM group was positively correlated with the change of sleep satisfaction of Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), and the change of alpha amplitude was negatively correlated with depression of VAS, anxiety of VAS and Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI). Conclusions The HEM training improved sleep quality and well-being, and sense of optimism. The HEM training also increased alpha amplitude and decreased delta amplitude in qEEG. The qEEG changes were well correlated with subjective improvement of mental health indices in healthy subjects. These results suggest some evidences that HEM training using the apparatus that induces EM would be helpful in improving subjective mental health in healthy subjects. Further study with larger samples size would be needed.
This study was performed to evaluate the effects of number and alignment of implant fixture and various bar designs on the retention of denture and the stress distribution. Six kinds of photoelastic mandibular models and nine kinds of overdenture specimens were designed. A unilateral vertical load was gradually applied on the right first molar to calculate the maximal dislodgement load of each specimen. A unilateral vertical load of 17 Kgf was applied on the right first molar and a vertical load of 10 Kgf was applied on the interincisal edge region. The stress pattern which developed in each photoelastic model was analyzed by the reflection polariscope. The results obtained were as follows: 1. The maximal dislodgement load reversely increased with the distance from the loading point to the implant fixture, while it linearly increased with that from the most posterior implant fixture to the mesial clip. The maximal dislodgement load also increased with the use of a cantilever bar. 2. Under the posterior vertical load, the stress to the supporting tissue of the denture base increased with the distance from the loading point to the implant future. The stress concentration on the apical area of the implant future reversely increased with the distance from the loading point to the implant future. 3. In the overdentures supported by two implant fixtures under the posterior vertical load. the specimen implanted on lateral incisor areas with a cantilever bar exhibited more favorable stress distribution than that without a cantilever bar. The specimen implanted on the canine areas without a cantilever bar, however, exhibited more favorable stress distribution. 4. In the overdentures supported by three implant fixtures. the specimen implanted ell the midline and canine areas exhibited more favorable stress distribution than that implanted oil the midline and the first premolar areas. 5. In the overdentures supported by four implant fixtures. the specimen implanted with two adjacent implant fixtures exhibited more favorable stress distribution than that implanted at equal distance under the posterior vertical load. 6. Under the anterior vertical load, the overdentures supported by three implant fixtures exhibited stress concentration on the supporting structure of the middle implant future. In overdentures supported by two or four implant futures, no significant difference was noted in stress distribution between the types of bars. These results indicate that the greater the number of implant fixtures, the better the stress distribution is. A favorable stress distribution may be obtained in the overdentures supported by two or three implant fixtures, if the location and the design of the bar are appropriate.
Local assemblers of agricultural products perform important distribution functions such as providing sales outlets, labor forces, market information, and financing, forward contracting, farming, physical distribution, and etc. However, their business activities are not transparent and producers are not effectively protected from unfair practices done by local assemblers. In order to enhance transparency and to increase effectiveness of governmental policies, local assemblers, which are mostly private management, should be organized as corporations. In order to organize corporations, the government should emphasize the importance of education and should provide corporations with governmental funds for improvement of agricultural distribution. Corporations should be developed to marketing cooperatives in the long run, and are requested to form their federations. It is also necessary to have transparent forward contracting system by local assemblers. In order to have transparent system, producers and local assemblers are guided to use standard contract forms and to operate offices handling unfair trade practices by local assemblers. We also need a place to exchange forward contracts, which can be developed to a futures market in the long run. In summary, local assemblers of agricultural products, which are mostly private management, should be developed to corporations and be operated by a transparent manner in order to protect agricultural producers and increase efficiency of trading.
Background: Leukemia and lymphoma demonstrate significantly incidence rates throughout the world and particularly in Iran they cause serious mortality and diagnosis and treatment expenditures for both families and the health system. Combined they account for about 11 percent of cancers in Mazandaran province, ranking number 2 in prevalent cancers. The purpose of this study was to provide a first general and specific description of leukemia and lymphoma in Mazandaran province. Materials and Methods: In this descriptive retrospective study, entire patient's data were reviewed which had confirmed diagnosis of leukemia and lymphoma with valid laboratory or pathology reports in the period 2001-2008. The data were collected by Babol health research site related to Tehran University of Medical Science. Incidence rates based on age groups, gender, city of residence and type of malignancy were calculated and analyzed. Results: In Mazandaran province, 1,146 cases of leukemia and lymphoma were encountered, 5.9 in 100,000 persons on average annually. The highest incidence rates were obtained at age of 70 or above (26.4) and the lowest at age of 0-9 (2.3).The incidence rates in males and females were 7.1 and 4.8 respectively with a ratio of 1.5. The highest incidence rate was in Babol (7.3) and the lowest was calculated in Neka and Tonekabon equally (1.5). According to the type of malignancy, non Hodgkin lymphoma, with 2.5/100,000 have the most incidence rate and myeloid leukemia with 1.8 had the lowest. Conclusions: The obtained findings indicate clear differences in incidence rates based on age, gender, residence, and type of malignancy. Therefore it's suggested that in addition to promote data collecting programs, research projects should be programmed to define leukemia and lymphoma risk factors in this province.
Socio-medical survey was carried out on six hundred and thirty Korean households in the cities of Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto, and Nagoya in Japan from Nov. 1972 to Dec. 1972, and following results were obtained. 1. Age distribution of households showed the highest occurence in the group of 40 to 49 years of age in the both sexes. Families with five members showed highest occurence, and the average number of familial members was 5.7 persons per one household. 2. More than half of the householders were some independent enterprisers rather than to be the employees and most of the household had one familial member engaged in more or less liberal profession. 3. 19.4% of households moved into these cities from 1941 to 1945. 4. 40.5% of all the households had their own houses. The possession rate of one's own house was higher in the households which had long period of residence in Japan. 5. 83.5% of all households had various medical insurances. And the 6.2% of the household which had no insurance stated that the reason for not being affiliated was 'because to be the foreigner'. Household of shorter dwelling period had less tendency to be affiliated to the various insurances. 6. In 41.3% of all the households, average medical expenditure amounted to 1000-5000 Yen per month. And only 25.6% of household stated that they do not worry about the medical expenditure for the futures. 7. 66.3% of households were consulting to medical doctors for their sickness, such as toothache, severe coughing, profuse sputum, children's fever and stomach pain etc. 8. 59.4% of households were using the facilities of health center services. The health center service was used mainly for individual health service rather than the environmental aspect. And 19.8% of households were not aware of health center activities. 9. It was found that 23.5% of households received the screening test of the tuberculosis and adult diseases. Especially, the rate of screening test of the adult diseases showed as following ; stomach cancer, 8.9% ; hypertension, 7.9% ; diabetes mellitus, 2.1% ; and uterus cancer, 1.6%. 10. Birth control was carried out in 17.3% of households but not in 52.5%. The chief reason of birth control was 'because of poor maternal health' (40.0%) or 'should not be done' (5.4%). 11. Most of them are obtaining the knowledges and informations on family plannings. public nuisance problems and nutritions etc. by means of the mass communications, while those no preventing diseases and the environmental hygiene through the administrative organizations.
The creation and acceptance of new technologies has been speeding up dramatically in modern times. There are also significant uncertainties about the future shape of markets, governance and social values that will have an important impact on organizations and their capacity to meet their objectives. These rapid technological and social change and uncertainties make the upsurge of interest in technology foresight, giving rise to its emergence as a global concept and policy tool. A wide range of future methods are available for technology foresight. Selection of methods will depend upon several factors, most notably available and the time financial resources, and the objectives of the exercise. Although Delphi has been widely used for many years, scenario becomes very popular in recent years. The use of scenarios can take better account of the complexity and unpredictability of the economic, social and political environments. Scenarios tell the stories describing paths to different futures, which help organizations make better decisions today. In this study, the scenario method was employed to draw the images of the future of renewable energy. Renewable energy grows dramatically in recent years. However, there is still considerable uncertainty with regard to the potential of renewable energy due to environment regulation, energy costs, and political and economic developments in the main supplier countries for oil and natural gas. Scenario can help us to identify the risks and opportunities when we develop the renewable energy, and to prepare for them. The scenario method is expected to be more utilized in the national technology foresight.
Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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v.8
no.2
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pp.146-154
/
2007
The u-City construction project has become a hot topic In the construction market because it seems economic value-added field for construction firms. However, construction firms don't willingly participate in the u-City construction market because the future business environments for the u-City are very uncertain. Scenario planning is a very powerful method in managing this complex planning situation and is based on scenarios that help each enterprise appropriately adapt itself to its own business environments. Therefore it Is based on the main principles of systems thinking and multiple futures. For the purpose of dealing with such uncertainties, this paper attempts to develop the possible market scenarios of the u-City construction market through a scenario planning approach. From this perspective, we considered various aspects of the u-City construction such as market demands, technology development, policy level and management environment. After considering the relevant issues, we identified the main trends and key uncertainties. Then, we developed three coherent u-City construction market scenarios. On the basis of the proposed scenarios, the business strategies of potential construction firms in the u-City construction market has been formulated. Therefore, construction firms can use these scenarios as a basic data for market analysis and business strategy. Therefore, this paper is able to enhance the participation of construction firms in the u-City construction market.
This study aims to introduce greenhouse gas emission trading in Korea as a highly cost-effective mechanism for controlling emissions. The Basic Act on Low-Carbon Green Growth will cover methods of emissions allocation, national inventory, and trading systems (i.e. emissions trading platforms, national registry,and clearing and settlement platforms). The Korean emission scheme will be based on the Korean Climate Change Act proposed by the National Assembly and Government with a cap-and-trade scheme. The national allowances will be allocated by the hybrid system. To establish the national inventory, TRADEMARKS (Telemetering System) and emissions factors are effective for greenhouse gas emissions measurement. It will likewise be effective for the national registry to be implemented via a Korean Integrated Registry, the emissions trading platform via the KRX (Korean Exchange), and the clearing and settlement platform via the KSD (Korean Securities Depository). In other words, the KRX will manage product development and marketing for Korean Carbon Financial Instruments (including commodities, futures, and options contracts) listed and admitted to trading on the KRX. All emissions trades will be standardized and cleared by the KSD.
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