• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.3
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• pp.247-261
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the groundwater level behavior of Geum river basin ($9,645.5km^2$) under future climate change scenario projection periods (2020s: 2010~2039, 2050s: 2040~2069, 2080s: 2070~2099) using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Before future evaluation, the SWAT was calibrated and validated using 11 years (2005~2015) daily multi-purpose dam inflow at 2 locations (DCD, YDD), ground water level data at 5 locations (JSJS, OCCS, BEMR, CASS, BYBY), and three years (2012~2015) daily multi-function weir inflow at 3 locations (SJW, GJW, BJW). For the two dam inflow and dam storage, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was 0.57~0.67 and 0.87~0.94, and the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was 0.69~0.73 and 0.63~0.73 respectively. For the three weir inflow and storage, the NSE was 0.68~0.70 and 0.94~0.99, and the $R^2$ was 0.83~0.86 and 0.48~0.61 respectively. The average $R^2$ for groundwater level was from 0.53 to 0.61. Under the future temperature increase of $4.3^{\circ}C$ and precipitation increase of 6.9% in 2080s (2070~2099) based on the historical periods (1976~2005) from HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5 scenario, the future groundwater level shows decrease of -13.0 cm, -5.0 cm, -9.0 cm at 3 upstream locations (JSJS, OCCS, BEMR) and increase of +3.0 cm, +1.0 cm at 2 downstream locations (CASS, BYBY) respectively. The future groundwater level was directly affected by the groundwater recharge by the future seasonal spatial variation of rainfall in the watershed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.6
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• pp.439-449
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• 2015

In this study, reliable future runoff projections based on RCPs for Yongdam dam watershed was performed using SWAT model, which was validated by k-fold cross validation method, and investigated the factors that cause the differences with respect to runoff projections between this study and previous studies. As a result, annual average runoff compared to baseline runoff would increase 17.7% and 26.1% in 2040s and 2080s respectively under RCP8.5 scenario, and 21.9% and 44.6% in 2040s and 2080s respectively under RCP4.5 scenario. Comparing the results to previous studies, minimum and maximum differences between runoff projections over different studies were 10.3% and 53.2%, even though runoff was projected by the same rainfall-runoff model. SWAT model has 27 parameters and physically based complex structure, so it tends to make different results by the model users' setting. In the future, it is necessary to reduce the cause of difference to generate standard runoff scenarios.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.35-55
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• 2008

Assessing vulnerability to climate change is the first step to take when setting up appropriate adaptation strategies. Adaptive capacity to climate change is the important factor comprising vulnerability. An adaptive capacity index in agricultural water management system was developed considering agricultural water supply and demand for rice production in Jeolla-do, Korea. The agricultural water supply was assumed to be equal to the amount of water stored in the major agricultural reservoirs, while data on the agricultural water demand was obtained from the dynamic simulation results by Korea Agriculture Corporation(KAC). The spatial unit for analysis was conducted at the county(Si, Gun, Gu) level and temporal scale was based on every month from 1991-2003. Adaptive capacity for drought stress index(ACDS index) was calculated as the percentage of data points where the irrigated water supply was greater than the crop water demand. The ACDS index was compared with SWSCI(Standard Water Storage Capacity Index) and the relationship showed high degree of fit($R^2$=0.84) using the exponential function, indicating that the developed ACDS index is useful for evaluating the status of the balance between agricultural water supply and demand, especially for the small sized agricultural reservoirs. This study provided the methodological basis for developing climate change vulnerability index in agricultural water system which is projected to be more frequently exposed to drought condition in the future due to climate change. Further research should be extended to the study on the water demand of the crops other than rice and to the projection of the change in ACDS index in the future.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.715-727
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• 2008

This study analyzed changes on the best condition of temperature and relative humidity for making artificial snows in the Yongpyong Ski Resort using data from Daegwallyeong. Depth of snowfall and snowfall days have decrease since 1990s. If the Yongpyong Ski Resort has only to depend on natural snows, it would be difficult to make and maintain ski slope. There are two times of snowmaking during ski seasons: one is the first snowmaking (October-November) for opening ski slopes and the other is the reinforcement of snowmaking (December-March) for maintaining snow quality during the seasons. Days having the best condition for the first snowmaking (daily minimum temperature below $-1^{\circ}C$ and daily average relative humidity 60 to 80 percent) decreased after 1970s. Days having the best condition for the reinforcement of snowmaking also decreased. While temperature changes are more evident than humidity changes for the first snowmaking, humidity changes are more obvious than change of temperature for the reinforcement of snowmaking. In the future climate projection by A1B scenarios, the length of ski seasons projected to decrease a 10 to 40 percent against the period of 1973-2008. The climate condition for the snowmaking projected to be poor, especially the due to increase of temperature.

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.303-315
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• 2014

Terrestrial ecosystem plays the important role as carbon sink in the global carbon cycle. Understanding of interactions of terrestrial carbon cycle with climate is important for better prediction of future climate change. In this paper, terrestrial carbon cycle is investigated by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Carbon Cycle (HadGEM2-CC) that considers vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle with climate. The simulation for future projection is based on the three (8.5/4.5/2.6) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from 2006 to 2100 and compared with historical land carbon uptake from 1979 to 2005. Projected changes in ecological features such as production, respiration, net ecosystem exchange and climate condition show similar pattern in three RCPs, while the response amplitude in each RCPs are different. For all RCP scenarios, temperature and precipitation increase with rising of the atmospheric $CO_2$. Such climate conditions are favorable for vegetation growth and extension, causing future increase of terrestrial carbon uptakes in all RCPs. At the end of 21st century, the global average of gross and net primary productions and respiration increase in all RCPs and terrestrial ecosystem remains as carbon sink. This enhancement of land $CO_2$ uptake is attributed by the vegetated area expansion, increasing LAI, and early onset of growing season. After mid-21st century, temperature rising leads to excessive increase of soil respiration than net primary production and thus the terrestrial carbon uptake begins to fall since that time. Regionally the NEE average value of East-Asia ($90^{\circ}E-140^{\circ}E$, $20^{\circ}N{\sim}60^{\circ}N$) area is bigger than that of the same latitude band. In the end-$21^{st}$ the NEE mean values in East-Asia area are $-2.09PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-1.12PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.47PgC\;yr^{-1}$ and zonal mean NEEs of the same latitude region are $-1.12PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.55PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.17PgC\;yr^{-1}$ for RCP 8.5, 4.5, 2.6.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.103-113
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• 2014

Under climate change, it is likely that the suitable area for forage crop cultivation would change in Korea. The potential cultivation areas for italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.), which has been considered one of an important forage crop in Korea, were identified using the EcoCrop model. To minimize the uncertainty associated with future projection under climate change, an ensemble approach was attempted using five climate change scenarios as inputs to the EcoCrop model. Our results indicated that most districts had relatively high suitability, e.g., >80, for italian ryegrass in South Korea. Still, suitability of the crop was considerably low in mountainous areas because it was assumed that a given variety of italian ryegrass had limited cold tolerance. It was predicted that suitability of italian ryegrass would increase until 2050s but decrease in 2080s in a relatively large number of regions due to high temperature. In North Korea, suitability of italian ryegrass was considerably low, e.g., 28 on average. Under climate change, however, it was projected that suitability of italian ryegrass would increase until 2080s. For example, suitability of italian ryegrass was more than 80 in 10 districts out of 14 by 2080s. Because cold tolerance of italian ryegrass varieties has been improved, it would be preferable to optimize parameters of the EcoCrop model for those varieties. In addition, it would be possible to grow italian ryegrass as the second crop following rice in Korea in the future. Thus, it merits further study to identify suitable areas for italian ryegrass cultivation after rice using new varieties of italian ryegrass.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.121-131
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• 2008

This study was conducted to delineate temporal and spatial patterns of potential risk of cold injury by combining the short-term cold hardiness of Campbell Early grapevine and the IPCC projected climate winter season minimum temperature at a landscape scale. Gridded data sets of daily maximum and minimum temperature with a 270m cell spacing ("High Definition Digital Temperature Map", HD-DTM) were prepared for the current climatological normal year (1971-2000) based on observations at the 56 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) stations using a geospatial interpolation scheme for correcting land surface effects (e.g., land use, topography, and elevation). The same procedure was applied to the official temperature projection dataset covering South Korea (under the auspices of the IPCC-SRES A2 and A1B scenarios) for 2071-2100. The dormancy depth model was run with the gridded datasets to estimate the geographical pattern of any changes in the short-term cold hardiness of Campbell Early across South Korea for the current and future normal years (1971-2000 and 2071-2100). We combined this result with the projected mean annual minimum temperature for each period to obtain the potential risk of cold injury. Results showed that both the land areas with the normal cold-hardiness (-150 and below for dormancy depth) and those with the sub-threshold temperature for freezing damage ($-15^{\circ}C$ and below) will decrease in 2071-2100, reducing the freezing risk. Although more land area will encounter less risk in the future, the land area with higher risk (>70%) will expand from 14% at the current normal year to 23 (A1B) ${\sim}5%$ (A2) in the future. Our method can be applied to other deciduous fruit trees for delineating geographical shift of cold-hardiness zone under the projected climate change in the future, thereby providing valuable information for adaptation strategy in fruit industry.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.578-578
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• 2015

동아시아 지역의 대부분은 몬순의 영향으로 인해 수자원의 계절적 변동성이 크며 이로 인해 홍수 및 가뭄이 빈번하게 발생하고 있다. 기후변화에 따른 기온과 강수량의 변화는 수자원의 변동성을 더욱 악화시킬 수 있으며, 수재해 피해를 더욱 가중시킬 것으로 전망되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 동아시아 지역의 기온 및 강수량의 변화를 전망하고, 그 특성을 분석하고자 한다. 이를 위해 CMIP5의 핵심실험인 2개 RCP시나리오(RCP4.5, RCP8.5)에 대한 다수의 GCMs 결과를 이용하였다. 구축한 기후시나리오를 이중선형보간법(bilinear interpolation)을 이용하여 공간적으로 상세화하였으며, Delta method를 이용하여 편의보정을 수행하였다. GCM 모의자료의 편의를 산정하기 위해 관측자료는 APHRODITE의 기온 및 강수량 자료를 이용하였다. GCM에 따라 차이가 나지만, 우리나라의 경우 평균적으로 100~300mm 정도 과소모의 되는 것으로 나타났다. 미래 기온 및 강수량 전망을 위해 과거기간은 1976~2005년, 미래기간은 2021~2050년(2040s), 2061~2090년(2070s)으로 구분하였다. 우리나라의 경우 RCP 4.5 하에서 연평균기온은 $1.4{\sim}1.7^{\circ}C$(2040s), $2.2{\sim}3.4^{\circ}C$(2070s) 정도 상승할 것으로 나타났으며, 연평균 강수량은 4.6~5.3% (2040s), 8.4~10.5% (2070s) 정도 증가할 것으로 나타났다. RCP 8.5에서는 연평균 기온은 RCP4.5에 비해 상승폭이 더 컸으며, 강수량은 유사한 결과가 나타났다. 또한, 동아시아 지역에서도 연평균 기온이 상승하고 연평균 강수량은 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 다만, 지역별로 계절별 기온 및 강수량이 매우 다른 양상으로 나타났다. 이는 동아시아 지역과 같이 계절별 강수량 발생패턴이 다른 지역에서는 홍수 및 가뭄에 매우 중요한 역할을 할 것이다. 따라서 지역적으로 계절별 강수량의 변화를 분석해야 할 것으로 판단되며, 추후 유출량 모의를 기반으로 홍수 및 가뭄의 영향을 직접적으로 분석해야할 것으로 판단된다.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.268-276
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• 2007

Urban atmosphere may play as a harbinger for the future climate change with respect to temperature and $CO_2$ concentration. The Seoul metropolitan area is unique in rapid urbanization and industrialization during the last several decades, providing a natural $CO_2$ dome with increased temperature. This study was carried out to evaluate the feasibility of using the urban-rural environmental gradient in replacement of the IPCC mid-term scenario (after 30-50 years). For this, we measured atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration and air temperature at three sites with different degree of urbanization (Seoul, Suwon, and Icheon). Results from 11-month measurement can be summarized as follows: (1) The annual mean $CO_2$ concentration across 3 sites was in the order of Seoul (439 ppm) > Suwon (419 ppm) > Icheon (416 ppm), showing a substantial urban-rural environmental gradient. (2) The diurnal fluctuation in $CO_2$ concentration was greater in summer than in winter, showing the effect of photosynthesis on local $CO_2$ concentration. (3) The daily maximum $CO_2$ concentration was observed at 0500 LST in spring and summer, 0800 LST in autumn, and 0900 LST in winter, showing the sunrise-time dependence. (4) The observed hourly maximum $CO_2$ concentration averaged for the whole period was 446 ppm in Seoul at 0700 LST, while the minimum was 407 ppm in Suwon at 1500 LST. (5) Compared with the background atmospheric concentration of $CO_2$ in Anmyeon-do (377.4 ppm annual mean), $CO_2$ concentration of the study sites was higher by 14% in Seoul, by 10% in Suwon, and by 9% in Icheon. The observed $CO_2$ concentration in Seoul reached already 98% of the 2030-2040 projection (450 ppm) and 80% of the 2040-2050 projection (550 ppm) under the IPCC BAU scenario, showing a feasibility of using the $CO_2$ dome of Seoul as a natural experimental setting for the mid-term climate change impact assessment.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.10
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• pp.905-916
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the climate change impact on watershed hydrology and flow duration in Geum River basin ($9,645.5km^2$) especially by extreme scenarios. The rainfall related extreme index, STARDEX (STAtistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of EXtremes) was adopted to select the future extreme scenario from the 10 GCMs with RCP 8.5 scenarios by four projection periods (Historical: 1975~2005, 2020s: 2011~2040, 2050s: 2041~2070, 2080s: 2071~2100). As a result, the 5 scenarios of wet (CESM1-BGC and HadGEM2-ES), normal (MPI-ESM-MR), and dry (INM-CM4 and FGOALS-s2) were selected and applied to SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. The wet scenarios showed big differences comparing with the normal scenario in 2080s period. The 2080s evapotranspiration (ET) of wet scenarios varied from -3.2 to +3.1 mm, the 2080s total runoff (TR) varied from +5.5 to +128.4 mm. The dry scenarios showed big differences comparing with the normal scenario in 2020s period. The 2020s ET for dry scenarios varied from -16.8 to -13.3 mm and the TR varied from -264.0 to -132.3 mm respectively. For the flow duration change, the CFR (coefficient of flow regime, Q10/Q355) was altered from +4.2 to +10.5 for 2080s wet scenarios and from +1.7 to +2.6 for 2020s dry scenarios. As a result of the flow duration analysis according to the change of the hydrological factors of the Geum River basin applying the extreme climate change scenario, INM-CM4 showed suitable scenario to show extreme dry condition and FGOALS-s2 showed suitable scenario for the analysis of the drought condition with large flow duration variability. HadGEM2-ES was evaluated as a scenario that can be used for maximum flow analysis because the flow duration variability was small and CESM1-BGC was evaluated as a scenario that can be applied to the case of extreme flood analysis with large flow duration variability.