• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.33-44
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• 2019

최근 기후변화 현실화로 강우 발생 시기와 패턴이 변화하면서 유역에 따라 유황이 변화하고 있는 실정이다. 이로 인한 하천 유황의 장기적 변화는 수중생태계의 구조와 기능에 커다란 변화를 야기한다. 하지만 국내에서는 기후변화와의 연계성은 물론, 유량변화와 생태학적 특성을 포함한 수생태계 관점에서의 분석은 대부분 이루어지지 않고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기후변화로 인한 현재-미래의 유황 변화가 만경강 하도와 홍수터 영역에서 감돌고기의 서식환경에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 평가하였다. 그 결과, 현재보다 미래에 홍수와 가뭄 등 극한 수문 조건이 심화됨을 확인하였고, 특히 크기, 빈도, 지속시간, 시기와 변화율 등을 비교 분석함으로써 유황 특성의 변화를 명확히 파악하였다. 그리고 유황 특성과 물리서식처 해석을 연계함으로써 기후변화로 인해 미래 생태환경 변동에 대한 위험성이 크게 증대될 것이라는 결과 제시가 가능하였다.

• 대기
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.123-138
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• 2024

Using 18 multi-model-based a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios, future changes in temperature and warmth index on the Korean Peninsula in the 21st century (2011~2100) were analyzed. In the analysis of the current climate (1981~2010), the ensemble averaged model results were found to reproduce the observed average values and spatial patterns of temperature and warmth index similarly well. In the future climate projections, temperature and warmth index are expected to rise in the 21st century compared to the current climate. They go further into the future and the higher carbon scenario (SSP5-8.5), the larger the increase. In the 21st century, in the low-carbon scenario (SSP1-2.6), temperature and warmth index are expected to rise by about 2.5℃ and 24.6%, respectively, compared to the present, while in the high-carbon scenario, they are expected to rise by about 6.2℃ and 63.9%, respectively. It was analyzed that reducing carbon emissions could contribute to reducing the increase in temperature and warmth index. The increase in the warmth index due to climate change can be positively analyzed to indicate that the effective heat required for plant growth on the Korean Peninsula will be stably secured. However, it is necessary to comprehensively consider negative aspects such as changes in growth conditions during the plant growth period, increase in extreme weather such as abnormally high temperatures, and decrease in plant diversity. This study can be used as basic scientific information for adapting to climate change and preparing response measures.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.219-233
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• 2013

본 연구는 산림에서 나타나는 수종의 분포 패턴을 해석하고 예측하기 위한 목적으로 수행되었다. 국내에서 처음으로 시도된 전국 규모의 체계적 산림조사라 할 수 있는 NFI (National Forest Inventory)의 수종별 출현 정보와 출현지점별 풍부도를 기반으로 소나무의 현존분포도를 작성하였다. 생태적 지위 모형의 하나인 GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production)를 이용하여 소나무 현존분포와 연관성이 높은 환경요인변수들을 선정하였고, 선정된 변수들을 설명변수로 하는 소나무 잠재분포 모형을 작성한 후 기후변화 시나리오를 적용하여 미래의 잠재분포를 예측하였다. 기후, 지리 지형, 토양 지질, 토지이용 및 식생현황 등 27개 환경요인변수를 각각 설명변수로 하여 모형을 구동함으로써 소나무 현존분포와의 연관성을 평가한 결과 1월 평균기온이 최상위를 차지하였고 연평균기온, 8월평균기온, 연교차 등도 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. NFI 정보로부터 추출하여 소스개체군으로 선정된 조사지점들을 소나무의 최종출현정보로, 환경요인변수 간의 연관성 분석을 통해 최종적으로 선정된 변수 세트를 설명변수로 하여 모형을 구동함으로써 최적의 모형을 선정한 후 잠재분포도를 작성하였다. 현재 시점의 환경요인변수들에 의해 트레이닝 된 잠재분포 모형에서 기후관련변수들을 RCP 8.5 기후변화시나리오에서 산출한 변수들로 대체하여 2020년대, 2050년대, 2090년대의 소나무의 예측 잠재분포도를 작성하였다. 최종적으로 작성된 소나무 잠재분포모형의 평가 통계량인 AUC (Area Under Curve)는 0.67로 다소 미흡하였으나 향후 기후변화 환경 하에서 소나무림의 보전 및 관리를 위한 최소한의 실마리를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 판단되었다.

• ALGAE
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.203-215
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• 2014

As global warming continues over the coming century, marine organisms will experience a warmer, more acidic ocean. Although these stressors may behave antagonistically or synergistically and will impact organisms both directly (i.e., physiologically) and indirectly (i.e., through altered species interactions), few studies have examined the complexities of these effects in combination. To address these uncertainties, we examined the independent and combined effects of elevated temperature and $pCO_2$ on the physiology of the adult sporophyte stage of giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, and the grazing of the purple sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus. While elevating $pCO_2$ alone had no effect on M. pyrifera growth or photosynthetic carbon uptake, elevating temperature alone resulted in a significant reduction in both. However, when M. pyrifera was grown under elevated temperature and $pCO_2$ together, growth and photosynthetic carbon uptake significantly increased relative to ambient conditions, suggesting an interaction of these factors on photosynthetic physiology. S. purpuratus held under future conditions generally exhibited reduced growth, and smaller gonads than urchins held under present-day conditions. However, urchins fed kelp grown under future conditions showed higher growth rates, partially ameliorating this effect. Feeding rates were variable over the course of the experiment, with only the first feeding rate experiment showing significantly lower rates for urchins held under future conditions. Together, these data suggest that M. pyrifera may benefit physiologically from a warmer, more acidic (i.e., higher $pCO_2$) ocean while S. purpuratus will likely be impacted negatively. Given that kelp-urchin interactions can be important to kelp forest structure, changes to either of these populations may have serious consequences for many coastal environments.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2020

Background: As the impact of climate change intensifies, exposure to heat stress will grow, leading to a loss of work capacity for vulnerable occupations and affecting individual labor decisions. This study estimates the future work capacity under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario and discusses its regional impacts on the occupational structure in the Republic of Korea. Methods: The data utilized for this study constitute the local wet bulb globe temperature from the Korea Meteorological Administration and information from the Korean Working Condition Survey from the Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute of Korea. Using these data, we classify the occupations vulnerable to heat stress and estimate future changes in work capacity at the local scale, considering the occupational structure. We then identify the spatial cluster of diminishing work capacity using exploratory spatial data analysis. Results: Our findings indicate that 52 occupations are at risk of heat stress, including machine operators and elementary laborers working in the construction, welding, metal, and mining industries. Moreover, spatial clusters with diminished work capacity appear in southwest Korea. Conclusion: Although previous studies investigated the work capacity associated with heat stress in terms of climatic impact, this study quantifies the local impacts due to the global risk of climate change. The results suggest the need for mainstreaming an adaptation policy related to work capacity in regional development strategies.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.193-201
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• 2015

The aim of this study is to find preferred climate condition for outdoor water activity and to estimate future change of preferred season for the activity following the climate change. We chose urban public swimming pools, Hangang park swimming pools, which do not have any attractions except pools and allow people to make decision to visit pools in the morning solely based on the weather conditions as study sites. We identified the preferred climate conditions by analyzing the relationship between number of visitors and temperature, wind chill temperature and discomfort indexes. According to the result, the preferred temperature range was from $23.51^{\circ}C$ to $37.56^{\circ}C$, the wind chill temperature range was from $25.90^{\circ}C$ to $39.43^{\circ}C$, the discomfort index range was from 71.61 to 88.98 and the precipitation range was below 22.8 mm per day. When the temperature range is applied as the preferred season, in present, the length of the season is 127 days, from end of May to end of September. However, if temperature increase resulting from lower emission scenario (RCP 6.0), the season would be extended to 162 days, from early May to middle of October. If temperature is increasing under high emission scenario (RCP 8.5), the length of the season would be extended to 173 days from early May to end of October. In addition, the period of between end of July and early August, which is currently the most preferred season, would not be favored anymore due to high temperature. The result of this study further suggests the necessity of climate change adaptation activities.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제57권1호
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• pp.37-45
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• 2015

Recent droughts in South Korea have had large economic and environmental impacts across the country. Changes in rainfall and hydrologic patterns due to climate change can potentially increase the occurrence of extreme droughts and affect the future availability of water resources. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate drought vulnerability for water resources planning and management, and identify the appropriate mitigation actions to conduct a drought risk analysis in the context of climate change. The objective of this study is changes in the temporal trends of drought characteristics in South Korea to examine drought impacts under climate change. First, the changes of drought occurrence were analyzed by applying the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for meteorological data on 54 meteorological stations, and were analyzed for the past 30 years (1981-2010), and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios (2011-2100). Second, the changes on the temporal trends of drought characteristics were performed using run theory, which was used to compare drought duration, severity, and magnitude to allow for quantitative evaluations under past and future climate conditions. These results show the high influence of climate change on drought phenomenon, and will contribute to water resources management and drought countermeasures to climate change.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.222-222
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• 2015

Vietnam is one of the most vulnarable countries affected by climate change and sea level rise. One of the consequences of climate change and sea level rise is the increase of salinity intrusion into the rivers which is challenging to irrigation systems in coastal areas. This indicates the necessary to study the ability of taking water through sluice gates of irrigation systems in coastal zones, especially in the dry season with the effects of climate change and sea level rise in the future. In this paper, Nam Thai Binh irrigation system is selected as a case study. The irrigation system is one of 22 biggest irrigation systems of the Red River delta in Vietnam located in coastal region. The computed duration is selected in dry season to irrigate for Winter-Spring crops. The irrigation water for the study area is taken from different sluice gates along the Red River and the Tra Ly River. In this paper, MIKE-11 model was applied to assess the ability of taking water for irrigation of the study area in current situation and in the context of climate change and sea level rise senario in 2050 (under the medium emissions scenario (B2) published by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Vietnam published in 2012) with different condition of water availability. The operation of the gates depends on the water levels and sanility conditions. The sanility and water level at different water intake gates of Nam Thai Binh irrigation system were simulated with different senarios with and without climate change and sea level rise. The result shows that, under climate change and sea water level rise, some gates can take more water but some can not take water because of salinity excess and the total water taking from the different gates along the rivers decrease while the water demand is increase. The study indicates the necessary to study quantitatively some recommended solutions in the study area particularly and in coastal region generally in Vietnam to ensure water demand for irrigation and other purposes in the context of climate change and sea level rise in the future.

• 환경정책연구
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.1-24
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• 2002

Due to the recent increase in greenhouse gases in atmosphere, world climate is rapidly changing and in turn, the earth ecosystem responds upon the climate changes. Comparing the ecosystem in the past, the present shapes of ecosystem is the result of the serious modification. Fishery resources in marine ecosystem, which usually occupy the upper trophic level, are also inevitable from such changes, because they always react to the natural environmental conditions. The northwestern Pacific is the most productive ocean in the world producing about 30% of world catch. From time to time, however, it has been notified that abundance, distribution and species composition of major fish species were altered by climate events. Furthermore, primary productivity of the ocean is not stable under the changing environments, so that carrying capacity of the ocean varies from one climate regime to another. Major climate events such as global warming, atmospheric circulation pattern, climate regime shift in the North Pacific, and El Nino event in the Pacific tropical waters were introduced in relation to fisheries aspects. The current status and future projection of fishery production was investigated, especially in the North Pacific including Korean waters. This new paradigm, ecosystem response to environmental variability, has become the main theme in marine ecology and fishery science, and the GLOBEC-type researches might provide a solution far cause-effect mechanism as well as prediction capability. Ecosystem management principles for multi-species should be adopted for better understanding and management of ecosystem.

• Journal of Species Research
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.246-254
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• 2021

Subalpine and alpine ecosystems are especially vulnerable to temperature increases. Betula ermanii Cham. (Betulaceae) is a dominant broad-leaved tree species in the subalpine zone and is designated as a 'Climate-sensitive Biological Indicator Species' in South Korea. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of B. ermanii under current and future climate conditions in South Korea using the MaxEnt model. The species distribution models showed an excellent fit (AUC=0.99). Among the climatic variables, the most critical factors shaping B. ermanii distribution were identified as the maximum temperature of warmest month (Bio5; 64.8%) and annual mean temperature (Bio1; 20.3%). Current potential habitats were predicted in the Baekdudaegan mountain range and Mt. Hallasan, and the area of suitable habitat was 1531.52 km², covering 1.57% of the Korean Peninsula. With global warming, future climate scenarios have predicted a decrease in the suitable habitats for B. ermanii. Under RCP8.5-2070s, in particular, habitat with high potential was predicted only in several small areas in Gangwon-do, and the total area suitable for the species decreased by up to 97.3% compared to the current range. We conclude that the dominant factor affecting the distribution of B. ermanii is temperature and that future temperature rises will increase the vulnerability of this species.