• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.93-93
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• 2011

전 세계적으로 기후변화로 인한 기상재해의 피해가 매년 증가하고 있으며, 기후변화로 인한 시민들의 안전, 재산, 인명피해 또한 늘어나고 있다. 이러한 피해를 최소화하기 위해서는 도시지역을 중심으로 한 신뢰성 높은 미래 기후전망 기법이 필수적이며, 미래 기후전망을 바탕으로 하여 기후변화로 인한 향후 발생할 수 있는 위험성의 정도를 전망하여 적응대책을 수립할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 도시지역의 미래 기후전망 기법을 개발하여 서울시의 미래기후를 전망한다. 본 연구를 수행하기 위하여 먼저 IPCC 기후시나리오에 대한 조사를 수행하여 자료를 수집한다. 수집한 자료를 바탕으로 역학적 상세화와 통계적 상세화 기법을 이용하여 고해상도 기후 시나리오를 생산하였다. 역학적 상세화 기법은 A2시나리오의 ECHO-G/S에서 생산된 기후 시나리오를 이용하여 지역 기후모델인 RegCM3에 적용하여 상세화 과정을 수행하였다. RegCM3를 이용하여 60km로 상세화한 후에 one-way double-nested system을 구축하여 20km까지 상세화 하였다. 20km 해상도의 기후 시나리오는 서울시와 같은 좁은 지역의 기후를 분석하기에는 어려움이 있으므로, RegCM3에 사용할 수 있는 Sub-BATS라는 기법을 이용하여 5km의 고해상도 기후 시나리오를 생산하였다. 역학적 상세화 결과는 관측결과에 비해 과소 추정되는 경향이 있어, 편차보정을 통하여 관측값에 가까운 자료를 만들어 주었다. 역학적 상세화 결과를 분석한 결과, 기준기간에 비해 미래기간(S3)에는 전체적으로 약 4.9도의 기온상승과 강수량 증가가 나타났으며, 특히 9월에 가장 큰 상승폭을 나타내고 있었다. 강수량의 경우 증가 경향이 뚜렷이 나타나고 있었으며, 여름철에 큰 증가폭을 나타내고 있었다. 통계적 상세화 기법은 역학적 상세화 기법에서 사용된 ECHO-G/S를 포함한 13개의 GCM결과와 우리나라의 57개 지점에 대한 CSEOF기법을 이용하여 기후 시나리오를 생산하였다. 이 자료는 서울시에 대하여 하나의 지점밖에 존재하지 않아, 서울시내의 지역별 미래 기후전망에는 문제가 있었으므로, Delta method라는 기법을 이용하여 서울 및 인근지역의 AWS 35개 지점에 대하여 미래 기후시나리오를 생산하였다. 통계적 상세화 결과, 13개 GCM의 기온변화는 전체평균 약 3.1도 상승하였고, 겨울과 여름철의 변화폭이 가장 크며, 모델의 불확실성 또한 겨울과 여름에 가장 큰 특징을 가지고 있다. 강수량의 경우 MME에서는 약간의 상승은 나타나고 있었지만 모델간의 불확실성은 여름철에 크게 나타나고 있었다. 역학적 및 통계적 상세화 기후 시나리오(ECHO-G/S, A2)를 비교 분석한 결과, 기온은 역학적 상세화 결과가 약간 크게 나타났으며, 전체적으로 유사한 패턴을 보이고 있었다. 강수량 또한 역학적 상세화 결과가 크게 나타나고 있었다. 역학적 및 통계적 상세화 결과는 S1의 경우 유사한 특징을 보이고 있었지만 S3로 갈수록 차이가 크게 나타나고 있었다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.83 no.2
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• pp.133-147
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• 1994

Wastepaper recycling has significant implications not only in providing scarce raw material input for the paper industry but in environmental concerns such as reducing solid waste disposal, energy conservation and preservation of forest resources. The objectives of this study was (1) to develop an econometric model of demand for and supply of wastepaper, (2) to forecast wastepaper consumption and price to the year 2000 applying the econometric models estimated and (3) to estimate the elasticity of variables which are included in the wastepaper supply and demand equations. In this study wastepaper was classified into three groups, old newsprint, old corrugated and mixed For each group such as demand and supply equation were estimated. The demand equations were estimated as a function of paper and paper product consumption and wholesale price index and supply equations as a function of wastepaper price, one year lagged paper and paperproduct consumption and transportation price. Applying the econometric models to forcasting results in the future consumption and supply of wastepaper projected as 11.645 million MT and 7.396 million MT in 2000, respectively. The rate of wastepaper self-supply is forcasted about 63.5% in 2000. Especially, the rate of old neswprint self-supply is predicted about 16% which means about 2.2 million MT of old newsprint should be imported from foreign countries. Lastly, some policy measures to promote wastepaper recycling rate based upon economic and physical characteristics of wastepaper and market structure are suggested.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.53-63
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• 2010

The global sea level rise has an effect on eco-environmental change by the inundation and erosion in the coastal area. Forecasting model on the change of morpho-ecological environments by the sea level change will give us information for coastal area management by predicting environmental changes of the up-coming future. This research aimed to foresee eco-environmental changes by the sea level rise in coastal area. Prediction model used SLAMM model developed to forecast coastal changes by IPCC scenario. The model predicted centennial environmental changes in the mouth of Han river and Nakdong river, Suncheon and Hampyeung bay as case areas. To sum up the research findings, in the estuary of the Han river, tidal flat was gradually disappeared from the year 2075, scrubmarsh and saltmarsh belts were developed. In the Nakdong River estuary, scrubmarsh was decreased from the year 2025, tidal flat was deposited from the year 2050, and also, the Gimhae plain was partially inundated, and wetlands were formed. In the Hampyeung bay, saltmarsh was deposited in the year 2025, tidal flat expanded until 2050 was partially submerged after that time. Tidal flat of Suncheon bay was disappeared by the inundation after 2025, and saltmarsh was developed in the embayment.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.27-38
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• 2020

Climate variations have become worse and diversified recently, which caused catastrophic disasters for our communities and ecosystem including economic property damages in Korea. Heat wave of summer season is one of causes for such damages of which outbreak tends to increase recently. Related short-term forecasting information has been provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration based on results from numerical forecasting model. As the study area, the ◯◯ province was selected because of the highest mortality rate in Korea for the past 15 years (1998~2012). When comparing the forecasted temperatures with field measurements, it showed RMSE of 1.57℃ and RMSE of 1.96℃ was calculated when only comparing the data corresponding to the observed value of 33℃ or higher. The forecasting process would take at least about 3~4 hours to provide the 4 hours advanced forecasting information. Therefore, this study proposes a methodology for temperature prediction using LSTM considering the short prediction time and the adequate accuracy. As a result of 4 hour temperature prediction using this approach, RMSE of 1.71℃ was occurred. When comparing only the observed value of 33℃ or higher, RMSE of 1.39℃ was obtained. Even the numerical prediction model of the whole range of errors is relatively smaller, but the accuracy of prediction of the machine learning model is higher for above 33℃. In addition, it took an average of 9 minutes and 26 seconds to provide temperature information using this approach. It would be necessary to study for wider spatial range or different province with proper data set in near future.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.173-182
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• 1997

This study is a basic research in purse seine fishery : on the behaviour of fish schools of tilapia Tilapia mossambica in the process of catch of the purse seine fishing method. The experiment was carried out for the mackerel purse seine which using of power block by fishing fleet system in the near sea of Cheju Island and as a forecast in the near future on the purse seine fishing, using of triplex net winch by one boat system in the near sea of Norway. These model purse seines were made of the scale of 1/180 of its full scale. The model purse seine test on the escaping behaviour of fish school by gap, area reducing of gap and tension of purse line was carried out in the stagnant water of experimental water tank. Designing and testing for the model purse seines were based on the Tauti's law. The results obtained were as follows : 1. When the time for the completing of pursing was 20 minutes, average swimming speed of fish school through a gap was 9.71cm/sec for powerblock seine and 9.97cm/sec for triplex seine. 2. In the case of pursing time in actual value was 20minutes, at 50 percent of the pursing, swimming behaviour of fish school in purse seine was 10% to I section, 80% to II section, 10% to III sectional direction for powerblock seine and a similar tendency for triplex seine. 3. In the case of pursing time in actual value was 20 minutes, at the time of 10 minutes have proceeded since then, area reducing rate of gap of the seine in projected front view was 63.5% for powerblock seine and 67.5% for triplex seine. 4. In the case of pursing time in actual value was 20 minutes, escaping rate of fish school by gap in projected front view was 70% for powerblock seine and 30% for triplex seine. Maximum tension of purse line was about 8.1 tons for powerblock seine and about 8.3 tons for triplex seine.

• Archives of design research
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.213-224
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• 2002

We've already living our lives in the 21s1 century. This century, even alone, means enormous changes and innovations. Namely, we have been encountering various forms of generation changes such as digital generation, globalization generation, consumer generation, and brand power generation. Among these, there have been extraordinary changes in consumers and the environment of consumer market, and it is noteworthy of paying attention to the transition of the leader of the consumer market from producers to consumers. Such changes will affect not only all fields related to market environment but also entire fields including future products and sales. Hereupon, it is intended to foresee and analyze the trend in the consumer market of the 21st century and investigate changes in the consumer market and the environment of consumers. Also, the world has brought a single space of economy along with globalization and the era of self-imposed competition, and multi-national enterprises have emerged and, at the same time, their brands can be seen around the world. Hence, they have been trying to maintain their own power brands for the century. In the past, brand meant the name of a product in general. But, in the present, it has another meaning such that the brand itself provides psychological satisfaction and trustworthiness. Hereupon, this study intends to foresee changes in the trend of the consumer market of the 21s1 century, to ,outlook the trend of the consumer market along with study of power brand strategies, and to pursue creative strategies for power brand.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.10 no.11
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• pp.3246-3252
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• 2009

The interest on the recovery of thermal energy using the waste has been rising to solve the problems of continuous increase of waste generation and the depletion of the fossil fuel recently. The incineration has been used most popularly as a treatment process of the waste for the energy recovery. However, it is expected that incineration and design cost will increase in the treatment of air contaminant emitted from incinerator. This research has simulated the actual incinerator and the flue gas treatment system using the Aspen plus which is the software to simulate the chemical process. The incineration process is composed of the 1st and 2nd combustor to burn the waste, SNCR process to reduce the $NO_x$ using the urea, and the steam generation process to save the energy during incineration. The $Ca(OH)_2$ slurry was used as an acid gas (HCl, $SO_2$) treatment materials and the removal efficiency for the products from the neutralization of acid gas in SDA and combustion ash was simulated at the bag filter. The simulation result has been corresponded with the treatment efficiency of emitted gas from the actual industrial waste incinerator and it is presumed to be used to forecast the efficiencies of flue gas treatment system in the future.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.11-19
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• 2014

This study is analyze future climate and land cover change affects behaviors for amount of streamflow and sediment discharge within basin. We used the climate forecast data in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2011-2100) which is opposite view for each other among RCP scenarios that are discussed for 5th report for IPCC. Land cover map built based on a social economic storyline in RCP 4.5/8.5 using Logistic Regression model. In this study we set three scenarios: one scenario for climate change only, one for land cover change only, one for Last both climate change and land cover change. It simulated amount of streamflow and sediment discharge and the result showed a very definite change in the seasonal variation both of them. For climate change, spring and winter increased the amount of streamflow while summer and fall decreased them. Sediment showed the same pattern of change steamflow. Land cover change increases the amount of streamflow while it decreases the amount of sediment discharge, which is believed to be caused by increase of impervious Surface due to urbanization. Although land cover change less affects the amount of streamflow than climate change, it may maximize problems related to the amount of streamflow caused by climate change. Therefore, it's required to address potential influence from climate change for effective water resource management and prepare suitable measurement for water resource.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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• v.7 no.5
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• pp.189-194
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• 2018

Unmanned technology is a representative technology that integrates various technologies like electric, electronic, mechanical, artificial intelligence, ICT technology, ect. In special emphasize, ground technology has been developing exponentially in the military field and expanding its utilization area. The patent information analysis method presented in this study, proposes a new patent analysis methodology for patent information analysis and patent information on unmanned ground technology. The patent information analysis processor has 6 levels to extract core patents and technologies. The process consists of: selection of technology to be analyzed, classification of detailed technology / key keyword selection, patent information collection / noise reduction, selection of patent information analysis method, patent information analysis, finally, core patents and key technologies that are extracted. Patent information on unmanned ground technology is also analyzed in this study. First, the technical classification of ground unmanned technology is carried out in detail. The core technology and core patents of ground unmanned technology were extracted through CPP and IPC code connectivity analysis. The results of patent information analysis using proposed patent information analysis method that can be applied to various fields of technology and analysis. These can be used as a material to forecast the direction of future research and development on the technology to be analyzed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.5
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• pp.409-423
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• 2015

In this study the very short-term rainfall forecasting and storm water forecasting using the weather radar data were implemented in an urban stream basin. As forecasting time increasing, the very short-term rainfall forecasting results show that the correlation coefficient was decreased and the root mean square error was increased and then the forecasting model accuracy was decreased. However, as a result of the correlation coefficient up to 60-minute forecasting time is maintained 0.5 or higher was obtained. As a result of storm water forecasting in an urban area, the reduction in peak flow and outflow volume with increasing forecasting time occurs, the peak time was analyzed that relatively matched. In the application of storm water forecasting by radar rainfall forecast, the errors has occurred that we determined some of the external factors. In the future, we believed to be necessary to perform that the continuous algorithm improvement such as simulation of rapid generation and disappearance phenomenon by precipitation echo, the improvement of extreme rainfall forecasting in urban areas, and the rainfall-runoff model parameter optimizations. The results of this study, not only urban stream basin, but also we obtained the observed data, and expand the real-time flood alarm system over the ungaged basins. In addition, it is possible to take advantage of development of as multi-sensor based very short-term rainfall forecasting technology.