• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.34-46
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• 2020

In order to supply stable natural gas in the future, it is necessary to forecast the demand in advance and secure the quantity of supply. In this paper, we propose a method of estimating the demand function of industrial natural gas, which is the core of the increase of domestic natural gas demand in the future. The cross-sectional data of 304 domestic industries were used to estimate the demand function of the industrial natural gas, and the effect of industry specific characteristics such as capital investment, manufacturing cost. Finally, the least absolute deviation estimation method which is robust to outliers and does not assume the homogeneity of the error term and the normality, And the results were derived. In addition, the economic value of industrial city gas was estimated using the price elasticity of industrial city gas. Therefore, it can be seen that the continuous expansion and supply of city gas to the industrial sector is beneficial at the national level, and the government needs to promote expansion through the industrial city gas support policy.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.1-26
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• 2023

This article will analyze and forecast important variables and dynamics in global power politics after the war in Ukraine. It tries to use several perspectives to analyze international relations, particularly liberal internationalism and structural realism. In short, core variables are as follows; First, how is the US-led liberal international order and globalization being adjusted? Second, how will the U.S.-China strategic competition, which is the biggest and structural variable, cause changes in the international order in the future? The third variable, how stable are Sino-Russia relations in the context of a structuring U.S.-China-Russia strategic new triangle? Fourth, to what extent will third middle hedging states outside the U.S. and China be able to exercise strategic autonomy in the face of multipolarization? To summarize, the first of these four variables is the largest basic variable at the global political and economic level in terms of its impact on the international community, and it has been led by the United States. The second variable, in terms of actors, seems to be the most influential structural variable in global competition, and the US-China strategic competition is likely to be a long game. Thus the world will not be able to escape the influence of the competition between the two global powers. For South Korea, this second variable is probably the biggest external variable and dilemma. The third variable, the stability of Sino-Russia relations, determines balance of global power in the 21st century. The U.S.-China-Russia strategic new triangle, as seen in the current war in Ukraine, will operate as the greatest power variable in not only global power competition but also changes in the international order. Just as the U.S. is eager for a Sino-Russia fragmentation strategy, such as a Tito-style wedge policy to manage balance of power in the early years of the Cold War, it needs a reverse Kissinger strategy to reset the U.S.-Russia relationship, in order to push for a Sino-Russia splitting in the 21st century. But with the war in Ukraine, it seems that this fragmentation strategy has already been broken. In the context of Northeast Asia, whether or not the stability of Sino-Russia relations depends not only on the United States, but also on the Korean Peninsula. Finally, the fourth variable is a dependent variable that emerged as a result of the interaction of the above three variables, but simultaneously it remains to be seen that this variable is likely to act as the most dynamic and independent variable that can promote multilateralism, multipolarization, and pan-regionalism of the global international community in the future. Taking into account these four variables together, we can make an outlook on the change in the international order.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.39-52
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• 2024

As the 'Eco-friendly conversion project for Port's CHE(Cargo handling Equipment) ' which has started in 2014 ends in 2024, in addition to the existing 'Low pollution' paradigm to respond to fine dust problems, a full-fledged 'Zero-emission' conversion is to be required to implement 2050 carbon neutrality at the port level. Accordingly, this study calculated the future replacement demand for container handling equipments at the four major domestic ports(Busan, Incheon, Yeosu Gwangyang, and Ulsan), and assumed a scenario where every CHE supposed to eb replaced is electrified inturn every year. And then the resulting future emission reduction effect accordingly was calculated and analyzed. In particular, compared and analyzed the emission outlook applying the life-cycle concept(LCA), which is being adopted as a new emission calculation standard in most industrial fields, and the existing emission calculation concept that only considers direct emissions within the port, to provide more effective implications for the promotion of follow-up conversion projects. According to the analysis results, if the CHE is replaced according to the proposed schedule, it is expected that the existing emissions can be reduced by 79% compared to BAU in 2025 and 97.4% in 2030. However, if the LCA is applied, it is expected to be reduced by only 27.6% by 2030. This suggests that port's CHE must be converted to zero emissions and at the same time establish an Ports' self-sufficient energy grid based on renewable energy.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.1
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• pp.11-18
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• 2018

The climate change impacts on hydrological components and water balance in Jeju Island were evaluated using multiple climate models and watershed model, SWAT-K. To take into account the uncertainty of the future forecast data according to climate models, climate data of 9 GCMs were utilized as weather data of SWAT-K for future period (2010-2099). Using the modeling results of the past (1992-2013) and the future period, the hydrological changes of each year were analyzed and the precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and recharge were increasing. Compared with the past, the change in the runoff was the largest (up to 50% increase) and the evapotranspiration was relatively small (up to 11% increase). Monthly results show that the amount of evapotranspiration and the amount of recharge are greatly increased as the amount of precipitation increases in August and September, while the amount of evapotranspiration decreases in the same period. January and December showed the opposite tendency. As a result of analyzing future water balance changes, the ratio of runoff, evapotranspiration, and recharge to rainfall did not change much, but compared to the past, the runoff rate increased up to 4.3% in the RCP 8.5 scenario, while the evapotranspiration rate decreased by up to 3.5%. Based on the results of other researchers and this study, it is expected that rainfall and runoff will increase gradually in the future under the assumption of present climate change scenarios. Especially summer precipitation and runoff are expected to increase. As a result, the amount of groundwater recharge in Jeju Island will increase.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.329-352
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• 2005

Long term observations of full-disk Lyman-o irradiance have been made by the instruments on various satellites. In addition, several sounding rockets dating back to the 1950s and up through the present have measured the $Lyman-{\alpha}$ irradiance. Previous full disk $Lyman-{\alpha}$ images of the sun have been very interesting and useful scientifically, but have been only five-minute 'snapshots' obtained on sounding rocket flights. All of these observations to date have been snapshots, with no time resolution to observe changes in the chromospheric structure as a result of the evolving magnetic field, and its effect on the Lyman-o intensity. The $Lyman-{\alpha}$ Imaging Solar Telescope(LIST) can provide a unique opportunity for the study of the sun in the $Lyman-{\alpha}$ region with the high time and spatial resolution for the first time. Up to the 2nd year development, the preliminary design of the optics, mechanical structure and electronics system has been completed. Also the mechanical structure analysis, thermal analysis were performed and the material for the structure was chosen as a result of these analyses. And the test plan and the verification matrix were decided. The operation systems, technical and scientific operation, were studied and finally decided. Those are the technical operation, mechanical working modes for the observation and safety, the scientific operation and the process of the acquired data. The basic techniques acquired through the development of satellite based solar telescope are essential for the construction of space environment forecast system in the future. The techniques which we developed through this study, like mechanical, optical and data processing techniques, could be applied extensively not only to the process of the future production of flight models of this kind, but also to the related industries. Also, we can utilize the scientific achievements which are obtained throughout the project And these can be utilized to build a high resolution photometric detectors for military and commercial purposes. It is also believed that we will be able to apply several acquired techniques for the development of the Korean satellite projects in the future.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.101-111
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• 2008

Hangang Parks have been played an important role as the source of various Civilian activities by providing a natural space near Han River ever since it was developed. Due to the local-heavy rain caused by recent climate change, the Hangang Parks tends to be easily overflowed. Evacuation of the park in emergency and its controlled system should be made for the sake of Civilian's safety. In this study, various basic data and several parameters were analyzed to simulate the hydraulic effect of Hangang Parks based on the outflow in $P1/4{\div}1/4^3$ Dam. Rising effects of flood water level were investigated through the one-dimensional and twodimensional numerical hydraulic models. Relationships of water level and travel time of flood between key station and centeral part of each park were also identified. It can be used to forecast the future flood water level of each individual park in Hangang Parks. Obtained results can be used to establish the rational plan of usage, management, citizen's safety, and emergency action plan of the Hangang Parks as the flood is occurred from the outflow of Paldang dam.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.45-57
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• 2008

The purpose of this research is to select an appropriate location of water pollution prevention facilities(WPPF) through evaluating location decision factor using environmental geographic information system. To do that, this research reviewed the current location policies of WPPFs and its related researches. And this paper builds water pollutant statistical databases, integrated them with the geographic information system of the administrative areas where water pollutants are generated, and gears it with statistical programs such as correlation and regression analysis in order to figure out the pollution factors which influence on the location decision of WPPF on the real time base. The volume of discharge of industrial wastewater is one of the most important water pollutants on the location decision of WPPF. And the number of industrial facilities also was the most important location decision factor in constructing the WPPFs. In addition, this paper noted that the number of population in each area makes a role to restraint the construction of WPPF. It identified that the disposal facility in Nackdong river upper-middle watersheds was insufficient in treating the livestock pollutants. Therefore, Gyeongbuk should concentrate on the construction of disposal facilities of livestock pollutant in these areas. The results of this research will contribute to decide what kinds of WPPF should be constructed on which watershed in Nackdong River, and to forecast the future water quality of each watershed.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.1-9
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• 2005

This study was performed to analyze time series landuse pattern of urban areas and the change of the areas by using remotely sensed multiple sensors. The results were as follows. First, according to the result of time series analysis, most agricultural land has been changed into built-up areas by development work such as the land development or land readjustment project, arrangement of science parks or military facilities, and location of public establishment like government buildings. Second, if the expansion of built-up areas maintains the present scale and speed, it seems that a lot of parts of land would be changed into built-up areas, especially centering around agricultural land, so it is necessary to establish the plan for urban space. Third, I have synthetically collected the data of the project of urban development and systematically monitored the process of in expansion the built-up areas up to now (from the past). I hereby could lay the foundation that makes us scientifically forecast the direction of expansion in the built-up areas by the urban development in the future.

• 한국균학회소식:학술대회논문집
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• 2014.05a
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• pp.19-19
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• 2014

This study included the analysis of mushroom data collected from Mt. Chiak in Gangwon-do using various methods. Former studies of Korean mushrooms are limited by regional characters and there is less species diversity among the regions. This study tried to find a way for the forecast of mushroom distribution and appearance by indexes of species diversity. The indexes used in this study include the number of fungi (N), the number of species (S), similarity index (C), richness index (R1, R2), variety index (V1, V2), evenness index (E1, E2, E3, E4, E5), and dominance index (D1) to analyze variety of species diversity. Analyses of data of fungi using a multistage cluster sampling indicate that the average value of C for years was higher than the average value of C for areas. The mushrooms consisted of 208 species in 686 individuals in limited fungal collection from 2002 to 2003. One hundred thirty nine species in 393 individuals were collected in 2002, and 122 species 293 individuals were collected in 2003. The individuals collected in 2003 were smaller than 2002's individuals. Similarity, richness, and variety indexes' values of 2003 were reduced than 2002's values but dominance index of 2003 was increased than 2002's value. Generally the species diversity of the environment to evaluate the index of similarity, richness, and variety was a higher index; dominance index was lower than that of the surrounding environment, suggesting a good diversity. As a result, the occurrence of mushrooms in the surrounding environment and the various factors seem fell in 2002 compared to 2003. The majority genus of the limited fungal collection was Mycena genus in 63 individuals; the majority species was Laccaria laccata in 34 individuals. Ninety three species in 106 individuals were collected by the extended collection and the majority genus of the extended collection was Amanita genus in 17 individuals; the majority species was Amanita citrina (Schaeff.) Pers. which was found in 5 individuals. This demonstrates that periodical similarity's value was 0.159 is higher than special similarity's 0.119. This indicates that the probability of the appearance of same mushrooms in the same area in following year is higher than the probability of the appearance of same mushrooms in the surrounding area in same year. The value of coefficient of variation (CV), in which the amount of change is much or less by N is higher than the CV value by S. CV value of dominance index(D) was the highest r point among other indexes, and evenness index (E) was the lowest point among other indexes. The correlation matrix with 66 combinations between the indexes, the combinations with correlations was 46 combinations. These results revealed that indexes of R1, V2, and E1 were proper to represent species diversity of fungi based on the correlation matrix and the theory of statistical independence which means there is no or less mutual association. This research would contribute to the study about variable living creature by measuring method and in the future this would be used to figure out regulation about fungi with their correlation, values in ecosystem, develop improving new models about agricultural fungi species and numbers by investigating agricultural variable species.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.105-117
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• 2016

Recently the passenger of railway satisfaction levels are lowered. the reason why the railway station was built without considering the increased passenger due to diversification(transfer, shopping, and etc.) of the domestic railway station infrastructure. Especially, in case of KTX Gwangju-Songjeong Station, the number of its passenger has been increased about more than three times since its opening in 2015, so that there are much inconvenience generated in the station congested with passengers. his study aims to excute using Pedestrian simulation and Design Hourly Factor concepts of Highway Engineering, in order to designing the optimum area through the passenger demand forecast for each station. For this analysis was divided into the second stage. Frist, the railway passenger was calculated by using the methodology of Design Hourly Factor that is used during road design in the aspect of traffic engineering. Second, we tried to analyze the level of service in each railway station facility through the pedestrian simulation. Analytical results show that utilizing pedestrian simulation provides verification for calculation of LOS of each railway station facility. Therefore, In the future when designing railway station of facilities will be possible to suggest the facilities area based on LOS.