• Title/Summary/Keyword: Fracture Probability

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Vertebral compression fractures after spine irradiation using conventional fractionation in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer

  • Rhee, Woo Joong;Kim, Kyung Hwan;Chang, Jee Suk;Kim, Hyun Ju;Choi, Seohee;Koom, Woong Sub
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.221-230
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: To evaluate the risk of vertebral compression fracture (VCF) after conventional radiotherapy (RT) for colorectal cancer (CRC) with spine metastasis and to identify risk factors for VCF in metastatic and non-metastatic irradiated spines. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 68 spinal segments in 16 patients who received conventional RT between 2009 and 2012. Fracture was defined as a newly developed VCF or progression of an existing fracture. The target volume included all metastatic spinal segments and one additional non-metastatic vertebra adjacent to the tumor-involved spines. Results: The median follow-up was 7.8 months. Among all 68 spinal segments, there were six fracture events (8.8%) including three new VCFs and three fracture progressions. Observed VCF rates in vertebral segments with prior irradiation or pre-existing compression fracture were 30.0% and 75.0% respectively, compared with 5.2% and 4.7% for segments without prior irradiation or pre-existing compression fracture, respectively (both p < 0.05). The 1-year fracture-free probability was 87.8% (95% CI, 78.2-97.4). On multivariate analysis, prior irradiation (HR, 7.30; 95% CI, 1.31-40.86) and pre-existing compression fracture (HR, 18.45; 95% CI, 3.42-99.52) were independent risk factors for VCF. Conclusion: The incidence of VCF following conventional RT to the spine is not particularly high, regardless of metastatic tumor involvement. Spines that received irradiation and/or have pre-existing compression fracture before RT have an increased risk of VCF and require close observation.

The Effect of Analysis Variables on the Failure Probability of the Reactor Pressure Vessel by Pressurized Thermal Shock (가압열충격에 의한 원자로 압력용기의 파손확률에 미치는 해석변수의 영향)

  • Jang, Chang-Heui;Jhung, Myung-Jo;Kang, Suk-Chull;Choi, Young-Hwan
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.693-700
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    • 2004
  • The probabilistic fracture mechanics(PFM) is a useful analytical tool to assess the integrity of reactor pressure vessel(RPV) at the event of pressurized thermal shock(PTS). In PFM, the probabilities of flaw initiation and propagation are estimated by comparing the applied stress intensity factor with the fracture toughness calculated by the simulation of various stochastic variables. It is known that the results of PFM analyses are dependent on the choice of the stochastic parameters and assumptions. Of the various variables and assumptions, we investigated the effects of the RT$_{NDT}$ shift equations, fracture toughness curves, and flaw distributions on the PFM results for the three PTS transients. The results showed that the combined effects of the RT$_{NDT}$ shift equations and fracture toughness curves are complicated and dependent on the characteristics of the transients, the chemistry of the materials, the fast neutron fluence, and so on.

Stochastic Remaining Fatigue Life Assessment Considering Crack Inspection Results (균열 검사 결과를 고려한 선체 잔류 피로 수명의 확률론적 예측)

  • Park, Myong-Jin;Kim, Yooil
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.57 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2020
  • In general, an inspection schedule is established based on the long-term fatigue life during the design stage. However, in the design stage, it is difficult to clearly identify the uncertainty factors affecting long-term fatigue life. In this study, the probabilistic fatigue life assessment was conducted in accordance with the methodology of DNV-GL. Firstly, The initial crack distribution estimated through the initial crack propagation analysis was updated by reflecting the results of crack inspection. Secondly, the updated crack distribution was compared with the initial crack distribution, and the probability of failure was updated with the effect of crack inspection.

Failure Probability Assessment of an API 5L X52 Gas Pipeline with a Wall-thinned Section

  • Lee Sang-Min;Yun Kang-Ok;Chang Yoon-Suk;Choi Jae-Boong;Kim Young-Jin
    • International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.24-29
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    • 2006
  • Pressurized gas pipelines are subject to harmful effects from both the surrounding environment and the materials passing through them. Reliable assessment procedures, including fracture mechanics analyses, are required to maintain their integrity. Currently, integrity assessments are performed using conventional deterministic approaches, even though there are many uncertainties to hinder rational evaluations. Therefore, in this study, a probabilistic approach was considered for gas pipeline evaluations. The objectives were to estimate the failure probability of a corroded pipeline in the gas and oil industries and to propose limited operating conditions for different types of loadings. To achieve these objectives, a probabilistic assessment program was developed using a reliability index and simulation techniques, and applied to evaluate the failure probabilities of a corroded API-5L-X52 gas pipeline subjected to internal pressures, bending moments, and combined loadings. The results demonstrated the potential of the probabilistic integrity assessment program.

Estimation for the Distribution of Creep Crack Growth Coefficients by Probabilistic Assessment (확률적 방법에 의한 크리프 균열성장 계수의 분포 추정)

  • Lee, Sang-Ho;Yoon, Kee-Bong;Choe, Byung-Hak;Min, Doo-Sik;Ahn, Jong Seok;Lee, Gil Jae;Kim, Sun-Hwa
    • Korean Journal of Metals and Materials
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    • v.48 no.9
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    • pp.791-797
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    • 2010
  • The creep crack growth rate (da/dt) of the Cr-Mo steels tested by pre-crack and the voltage (or resistance) variables were related into fracture parameter (Ct), crack growth coefficient (H), and an exponent (q) in the parts of Base, weld and HAZ. The fracture parameter (Ct) has various variables relating to the specimen and crack shape, applied stress, and creep strain curve. The H and q was inferred by OLS regression (ordinary least square method), and the H values were solved in statistics and probability assessment, which were attained fromPDF's distributions (probability density function). The HAZ part has the highest value of q by OLS regression and the widest distribution of H by PDF of WEIBULL, which means that the crack sensitivity of HAZ should be cautioned against the creep crack growth and failure.

A Study on the ballistic performance and fracture mode of anodized Aluminum 5052-H34 alloy laminates (알루미늄 5052-H34 합금 적층재의 방탄성능과 파괴모드에 관한 연구)

  • 손세원;김희재;박영의;홍성희
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 2000.11a
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    • pp.507-512
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    • 2000
  • The ob.jective of this study is to determine fracture behaviors(penetrati0n modes) and resistance to penetration duringballistic impact of Al 5052-H34 alloy laminates and anodized Al 5052-H34 alloy laminates. Resistance to penetration is determined by $V_{50}$ ballistic limit, a statical velocity with 50% probability for complete penetration, test method. Fracture behaviors and ballistic tolerance, described by penetration modes, are respectfully observed that result from V50 test and Projectile Through Plates (PTP) test at velocities greater than $V_{50}$. PTP tests were conducted with 0" obliquity at room temperature using 5.56mm ball projectile. $V_{50}$ tests with 0" obliquity at room temperature were conducted with projectiles that were able to achieve near or complete penetration during PTP tests. Surface Hardness, resistance to penetration, and penetration modes of A1 5052-H34 alloy laminates compared to those of anodized Al 5052-H34 alloy laminates.y laminates.

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Application of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Technique Using Monte Carlo Simulation (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 확률론적 파괴역학 수법의 적용성 검토)

  • Lee, Joon-Seong;Kwak, Sang-Log;Kim, Young-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.154-160
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    • 2001
  • For major structural components periodic inspections and integrity assessments are needed for the safety. However, many flaws are undetectable because sampling inspection is carried out during in-service inspection. Probabilistic integrity assessment is applied to take into consideration of uncertainty and variance of input parameters arise due to material properties and undetectable cracks. This paper describes a Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics(PFM) analysis based on the Monte Carlo(MC) algorithms. Taking a number of sampling data of probabilistic variables such as fracture toughness value, crack depth and aspect ratio of an initial surface crack, a MC simulation of failure judgement of samples is performed. for the verification of this analysis, a comparison study of the PFM analysis using a commercial code, mathematical method is carried out and a good agreement was observed between those results.

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Integrity Assessment of Sharp Flaw in CANDU Pressure Tube Using Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics (확률론적 파괴역학을 도입한 CANDU 압력관의 예리한 결함에 대한 건전성평가)

  • Lee, Jun-Seong;Gwak, Sang-Rok;Kim, Yeong-Jin;Park, Yun-Won
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.653-659
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    • 2002
  • This paper describes a probabilistic fracture mechanics(PFM) analysis based on Monte Carlo(MC) simulation. In the analysis of CANDU pressure tube, the depth and aspect ratio of an initial semi-elliptical surface crack, a fracture toughness value and delayed hydride cracking(DHC) velocity are assumed to be probabilistic variables. As an example, some failure probabilities of piping and CANDU pressure tube are calculated using MC method with the stratified sampling MC technique, taking analysis conditions of normal operations. In the stratified MC simulation, a sampling space of probabilistic variables is divided into a number of small cells. For the verification of analysis results, a comparison study of the PFM analysis using other commercial code is carried out and a good agreement was observed between those results.