Failure Probability Assessment of an API 5L X52 Gas Pipeline with a Wall-thinned Section

Pressurized gas pipelines are subject to harmful effects from both the surrounding environment and the materials passing through them. Reliable assessment procedures, including fracture mechanics analyses, are required to maintain their integrity. Currently, integrity assessments are performed using conventional deterministic approaches, even though there are many uncertainties to hinder rational evaluations. Therefore, in this study, a probabilistic approach was considered for gas pipeline evaluations. The objectives were to estimate the failure probability of a corroded pipeline in the gas and oil industries and to propose limited operating conditions for different types of loadings. To achieve these objectives, a probabilistic assessment program was developed using a reliability index and simulation techniques, and applied to evaluate the failure probabilities of a corroded API-5L-X52 gas pipeline subjected to internal pressures, bending moments, and combined loadings. The results demonstrated the potential of the probabilistic integrity assessment program.