• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2006년도 정기 학술대회 논문집
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• pp.275-282
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• 2006

System algorithms estimated by deterministic input may occur the error between predicted and actual output. Especially, actual system can't predict the exact outputs due to uncertainty and tolernce of input parameters. A single output to a set of inputs has a limited value without the variation. Hence, we should consider various scatters caused by the load assessment, material characteristics, stress analysis and manufacturing methods in order to perform the robust design or etimate the reliability of structure. The system design with uncertainty should perform the probabilistic structural optimization with the statistical response and the reliability. This method calculated the probability distributions of the characteristics such as stress by combining stress analysis, response surface methodology and Monte Carlo simulation and got the probabilistic sensitivity. The sensitivity of structural response with respect to in constant design variables was estimated by fracture probability. Therefore, this paper proposed the probabilistic reliability design method for fracture of uncorved freight end beam and the design criteria by fracture probability.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.987-996
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• 2003

The structural integrity of the reactor vessel with the approaching end of life must be assured for pressurized thermal shock. The regulation specifies the screening criteria for this and requires that specific analysis be performed for the reactor vessel which is anticipated to exceed the screening criteria at the end of plant life. In case the screening criteria is exceeded by the deterministic analysis, probabilistic analysis must be performed to show that failure probability Is within the limit. In this study, probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis of the reactor vessel for pressurized thermal shock is performed and the effects of residual stress and master curve on the failure probability are investigated.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회논문집A
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• pp.459-464
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• 2001

For major nuclear power plant components periodic inspections and integrity assessments are needed for the safety. But many flaws are undetectable due to sampling inspection. Probabilistic integrity assessment is applied to take into consideration of uncertainty and variance of input parameters arise due to material properties, applied load and undetectable flaws. This paper describes a Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics(PFM) analysis based on Monte Carlo(MC) algorithms. Taking important parameters as probabilistic variables such as fracture toughness, crack growth rate and flaw shape, failure probability of major nuclear power plant components is archived as a results of MC simulation. For the verification of these analysis, a comparison study of the PFM analysis using other commercial code, mathematical method is carried out and a good agreement was observed between those results.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2004년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.54-59
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• 2004

In this paper probabilistic fracture mechanics(PFM) approach is employed to evaluate the integrity of CANDU Zr-2.5Nb pressure tubes. Modified failure assessment diagram(Jr-FAD), plastic collapse, and critical crack length(CCL) approach are used for evaluating failure probability of the tubes. Jr-FAD was extended from the Kr-FAD because fracture of pressure tubes occurs in brittle manner due to hydrogen embrittlement of material by deuterium fluence. For developing the probabilistic integrity evaluation module, AECL procedures and fracture toughness parameters of EPRI were used.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.61-67
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• 2000

Gears are the most commonly used parts in automotive and industrial applications. One of most common modes of gear failures is tooth breakage, which is usually produced by the bending fatigue failure. It is important to manufacture the gears which can withstand the applied stresses in view of safety and economic requirement. This paper deals with bending fatigue strength for cold forged bevel gear. Especially, to compare fatigue characteristics for manufacturing processes difference, bending fatigue tests of bevel gears made by three different processes respectively. Results indicate that the fatigue strength of bevel gear is improved by cold forging process. Intergranular fracture is found on fatigue fracture surface, and dimples are observed on final fracture surface. The fatigue failure cannot be considered as a deterministic quantity, but must be characterized statistically. This study proposes a method to estimate bending fatigue lift of the bevel gear using the probability-load-life and Weibull analysis.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제26권11호
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• pp.2305-2311
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• 2002

The pressure tube is a major component of the CANDU reactor, which supports nuclear fuel bundle and heavy water coolant. Pressure tubes are installed horizontally inside the reactor and only selected samples are periodically examined during in-service inspection. In this respect, a probabilistic safety assessment method is more appropriate fur the assessment of overall pressure tube safety. The failure behavior of CANDU pressure tubes, however, is governed by delayed hydride cracking which is the major difference from pipings and reactor pressure vessels. Since the delayed hydride cracking has more widely distributed governing parameters, it is impossible to apply a general PFM methodology directly. In this paper, a PFM methodology for the safety assessment of CANDU pressure tubes is introduced by applying Monte Carlo simulation in determining failure probability Initial hydrogen concentration, flaw shape and depth, axial and radial crack growth rate and fracture toughness were considered as probabilistic variables. Parametric study has been done under the base of pressure tube dimension and hydride precipitation temperature in calculating failure probability. Unstable fracture and plastic collapse are used for the failure assessment. The estimated failure probability showed about three-order difference with changing dimensions of pressure tube.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제58권3호
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• pp.137-143
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• 2021

In this study, the fracture strength of Flexible Secondary Barrier (FSB) composites was standardized by conducting a distribution analysis of the fracture probability, considering that the fracture strength of FSB composites such as glass fiber reinforced composites is relatively large. As the mechanical performance of FSB composites varies with the fiber direction, 20 replicate uniaxial tensile tests were performed for different temperatures ranging from the ambient to cryogenic conditions, considering the actual operating environment of liquefied natural gas. For the probability statistical analysis, the Weibull distribution analysis derived from the weakest link theory was used, considering the large variance in the fracture strength and brittle fracture behavior. The results of the Weibull distribution analysis were used to calculate the standard fracture strength of the FSB composites for different fiber directions. The findings can help ensure the reliability of the FSB mechanical properties in different fiber directions in the design of the secondary barrier and structural analyses.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제81권5호
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• pp.565-574
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• 2022

The infrastructures such as offshore, bridges, power plant, oil and gas piping and aircraft operate in a harsh environment during their service life. Structural integrity of engineering components used in these industries is paramount for the reliability and economics of operation. Two regression models based on the concept of Gaussian process regression (GPR) and Minimax probability machine regression (MPMR) were developed to predict stress intensity factor range (𝚫K). Both GPR and MPMR are in the frame work of probability distribution. Models were developed by using the fatigue crack growth data in MATLAB by appropriately modifying the tools. Fatigue crack growth experiments were carried out on Eccentrically-loaded Single Edge notch Tension (ESE(T)) specimens made of API 5L X65 Grade steel in inert and corrosive environments (2.0% and 3.5% NaCl). The experiments were carried out under constant amplitude cyclic loading with a stress ratio of 0.1 and 5.0 Hz frequency (inert environment), 0.5 Hz frequency (corrosive environment). Crack growth rate (da/dN) and stress intensity factor range (𝚫K) values were evaluated at incremental values of loading cycle and crack length. About 70 to 75% of the data has been used for training and the remaining for validation of the models. It is observed that the predicted SIF range is in good agreement with the corresponding experimental observations. Further, the performance of the models was assessed with several statistical parameters, namely, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Coefficient of Efficiency (E), Root Mean Square Error to Observation's Standard Deviation Ratio (RSR), Normalized Mean Bias Error (NMBE), Performance Index (ρ) and Variance Account Factor (VAF).

• 한국지하수토양환경학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지하수토양환경학회 2005년도 총회 및 춘계학술발표회
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• pp.284-287
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• 2005

The flow of groundwater in fractured medium is related to the geometric characteristics of the fracture system. And a fracture aperture and a fracture density are considered as important factor concerning the permeability. Data acquisition of the properties of fracture such as aperture and density is so difficult and has uncertainty. We also cannot know the fracture characteristics through the in-situ tests. We usually obtain the fracture information from a ultrasonic scan logging or borehole television indirectly. Using the deduced results, we can make the fracture system and simulate the groundwater flow and solute transport in the crystalline rock. This study aimed to analyze the correlation between the properties of fracture and hydraulic conductivities obtained at the same interval. The properties of fracture are examined by acoustic televiwer and hydraulic conductivities are obtained by constant Pressure injection test. The distributioin of fracture width and fracture frequency shows the log-normal probability plot. And, Results of correlation analysis explain that opened type fractures have proper relation with hydraulic conductivity. But, as though there are semi-opened type fractures or closed type fractures, those have the permeable structure.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.1356-1362
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• 1996

Fracture toughness of heterogeneous brittle materials such as poly crystalline ceramics used to present the size (thickness) effect as well as statistically distributed results. There is belief that both(size effect and scatter) must be associated with each other. However, no generally accepted theory has been established so far. Using statistical approach, a probabilistic modeling for the fracture toughness which describes the thickness effect was attempted in this paper, Weibull distribution of specific fracture energy(SFE)at local areas and Griffith criterion are applied to the model. In addition, the newly developed model was verified with experimental results of alumina.