• 제목/요약/키워드: Forward model

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Rolling Horizon Implementation for Real-Time Operation of Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model (동적통행배정모형의 실시간 교통상황 반영)

  • SHIN, Seong Il;CHOI, Kee Choo;OH, Young Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • 제20권4호
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    • pp.135-150
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    • 2002
  • The basic assumption of analytical Dynamic Traffic Assignment models is that traffic demand and network conditions are known as a priori and unchanging during the whole planning horizon. This assumption may not be realistic in the practical traffic situation because traffic demand and network conditions nay vary from time to time. The rolling horizon implementation recognizes a fact : The Prediction of origin-destination(OD) matrices and network conditions is usually more accurate in a short period of time, while further into the whole horizon there exists a substantial uncertainty. In the rolling horizon implementation, therefore, rather than assuming time-dependent OD matrices and network conditions are known at the beginning of the horizon, it is assumed that the deterministic information of OD and traffic conditions for a short period are possessed, whereas information beyond this short period will not be available until the time rolls forward. This paper introduces rolling horizon implementation to enable a multi-class analytical DTA model to respond operationally to dynamic variations of both traffic demand and network conditions. In the paper, implementation procedure is discussed in detail, and practical solutions for some raised issues of 1) unfinished trips and 2) rerouting strategy of these trips, are proposed. Computational examples and results are presented and analyzed.

Back Analysis of Field Measurements Around the Tunnel with the Application of Genetic Algorithms (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 터널 현장 계측 결과의 역해석)

  • Kim Sun-Myung;Yoon Ji-Sun;Jun Duk-Chan;Yoon Sang-Gil
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • 제20권7호
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 2004
  • In this study, the back analysis program was developed by applying the genetic algorithm, one of artificial intelligence fields, to the direct method. The optimization process which has influence on the efficiency of the direct method was modulated with genetic algorithm. On conditions that the displacement computed by forward analysis for a certain rock mass model was the same as the displacement measured at the tunnel section, back analysis was executed to verify the validity of the program. Usefulness of the program was confirmed by comparing relative errors calculated by back analysis, which is carried out under the same rock mass conditions as analysis model of Gens et at (1987), one of back analysis case in the past. We estimated the total displacement occurring by tunnelling with the crown settlement and convergence measured at the working faces in three tunnel sites of Kyungbu Express railway. Those data measured at the working face are used for back analysis as the input data after confidence test. As the results of the back analysis, we comprehended the tendency of tunnel behaviors with comparing the respective deformation characteristics obtained by the measurement at the working face and by back analysis. Also the usefulness and applicability of the back analysis program developed in this study were verified.

A Study on Production Well Placement for a Gas Field using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망 시뮬레이터를 이용한 가스전 생산정 위치선정 연구)

  • Han, Dong-Kwon;Kang, Il-Oh;Kwon, Sun-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • 제17권2호
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    • pp.59-69
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    • 2013
  • This study presents development of the ANN simulator for well placement of infill drilling in gas fields. The input data of the ANN simulator includes the production time, well location, all inter well distances, boundary inter well distance, infill well position, productivity potential, functional links, reservoir pressure. The output data includes the bottomhole pressure in addition to the production rate. Thus, it is possible to calculate the productivity and bottomhole pressure during production period simultaneously, and it is expected that this model could replace conventional simulators. Training for the 20 well placement scenarios was conducted. As a result, it was found that accuracy of ANN simulator was high as the coefficient of correlation for production rate was 0.99 and the bottomhole pressure 0.98 respectively. From the resultes, the validity of the ANN simulator has been verified. The term, which could produce Maximum Daily Quantity (MDQ) at the gas field and the productivity according to the well location was analyzed. As a result, the MDQ could be maintained for a short time in scenario C-1, which has the three infill wells nearby aquifer boundary, and a long time in scenario A-1. In conclusion, it was found that scenario A maintained the MDQ up to 21% more than those of scenarios B and C which include parameters that might affect the productivity. Thus, the production rate can be maximized by selecting the location of production wells in comprehensive consideration of parameters that may affect the productivity. Also, because the developed ANN simulator could calculate both production rate and bottomhole pressure, respectively, it could be used as the forward simulator in a various inverse model.

A Study on Verification of the effectiveness of Mutually Recognizable Traffic Safety Facilities (상호인식 교통안전시설물 현장적용에 따른 효과검증 연구)

  • Kim, Ki-Nam;Jeong, Yong-Ho;Lee, Min-jae
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • 제20권12호
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    • pp.468-474
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    • 2019
  • Korea had the highest accident rate among OECD countries in 2018, with 8.4 per 100,000 population, ranking 4th among 35 countries. In addition, the accident rate of traffic with children and the elderly was also high. This study reviewed the relevant literature and analyzed the traffic-accident analysis system. Customized traffic safety facilities were developed. In addition, by measuring the visibility of the traffic safety facilities by installing a test bed, this study measured the forward driving frequency and vehicle driving speed while driving. As a result of applying the "pedestrian pedestrian model" collision test model, the possibility of serious injury after installing the facility was reduced greatly to 4.6%. In this study, the visibility of traffic safety facilities and the effect of reducing the traffic speed were verified through test beds. Recognizing traffic safety facilities will reduce traffic accidents.

An Analysis on the National Economic Impacts of the Distribution Industry-Status and Input-output Analysis (유통산업의 국민경제적 파급효과 분석 - 현황과 산업연관분석을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Seung-Chang;Jung, Gang-Ok;Hwang, Jin-Young;Lim, Eung-Soon
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • 제15권5호
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    • pp.175-193
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    • 2010
  • This paper has two objectives. One is to understand status of the distribution industry in Korea and compare it with industrialized countries. The other is an attempt to apply input-output(I-O) analysis to investigate the economic impacts of the distribution industry in the national economy for the year 2008. In the economy as a whole, the distribution industry represented about around 15 per cent employment and accounted for near 8 percent in GDP. The employment portion of the distribution in overall industry is almost same that of US, UK, and Japan, but shared portion in GDP is at least 3 per cent below these countries. Next, a static I-O framework is employed, focusing on two topics in its application. First, the impacts of the product or investment in the distribution industry on the product, value-added, and employment of other sectors are explored by using demand-driven model. Second, the national economic impacts of the distribution industry in Korea are looked into by using open model and inter-industry analysis. It can be summarized that the distribution industry has a high production-inducing effect, more worker and employment-inducing effect, a high forward and a low backward linkage effect. Finally, the implications and limitations of this study are discussed.

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Traveltime estimation of first arrivals and later phases using the modified graph method for a crustal structure analysis (지각구조 해석을 위한 수정 그래프법을 이용한 초동 및 후기 시간대 위상의 주시 추정)

  • Kubota, Ryuji;Nishiyama, Eiichiro;Murase, Kei;Kasahara, Junzo
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.105-113
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    • 2009
  • The interpretation of observed waveform characteristics identified in refraction and wide-angle reflection data increases confidence in the crustal structure model obtained. When calculating traveltimes and raypaths, wavefront methods on a regular grid based on graph theory are robust even with complicated structures, but basically compute only first arrivals. In this paper, we develop new algorithms to compute traveltimes and raypaths not only for first arrivals, but also for fast and later reflection arrivals, later refraction arrivals, and converted waves between P and S, using the modified wavefront method based on slowness network nodes mapped on a multi-layer model. Using the new algorithm, we can interpret reflected arrivals, Pg-later arrivals, strong arrivals appearing behind Pn, triplicated Moho reflected arrivals (PmP) to obtain the shape of the Moho, and phases involving conversion between P and S. Using two models of an ocean-continent transition zone and an oceanic ridge or seamount, we show the usefulness of this algorithm, which is confirmed by synthetic seismograms using the 2D Finite Difference Method (2D-FDM). Characteristics of arrivals and raypaths of the two models differ from each other in that using only first-arrival traveltime data for crustal structure analysis involves risk of erroneous interpretation in the ocean-continent transition zone, or the region around a ridge or seamount.

A Study on Side Impact from Car-to-Car using Finite Element Analysis (유한요소해석을 이용한 차대차 측면충돌에 대한 연구)

  • Han, Yuong-Kyu;Baek, Se-Ryong;Yoon, Jun-Kyu;Lim, Jong-Han
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.201-209
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    • 2015
  • The deformed degree of car body varies largely with the collision part from side collision of car-to-car. In case of deformation of car body caused by collision, the movement is different as speed energy changes to strain energy. Generally, in the analysis of traffic accident, the movement of car after the collision is analyzed by law of conservation of motion and the error of energy absorption rate along the deformation of car body can be calibrated by inputting coefficient of restitution, but it is current situation that coefficient of restitution applied by referring to the research results of forward collision and backward collision because the research results of side collision is rare. Vehicle model of finite element method applied by structure of car body and materials of each component was analyzed by explicit finite element method, and coefficient of restitution and collision detection time along contact part of side collision was drawn by analyzing the results. Analysis result acquired through the law of conservation momentum by applying finally-computed coefficient of restitution and crash detection time compared to collision result of actual vehicle. As a result, the reliability of analysis was higher than the existing analysis method were acquired when applying the drawn initial input value that used finite element method analysis model.

Illegal Cash Accommodation Detection Modeling Using Ensemble Size Reduction (신용카드 불법현금융통 적발을 위한 축소된 앙상블 모형)

  • Lee, Hwa-Kyung;Han, Sang-Bum;Jhee, Won-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.93-116
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    • 2010
  • Ensemble approach is applied to the detection modeling of illegal cash accommodation (ICA) that is the well-known type of fraudulent usages of credit cards in far east nations and has not been addressed in the academic literatures. The performance of fraud detection model (FDM) suffers from the imbalanced data problem, which can be remedied to some extent using an ensemble of many classifiers. It is generally accepted that ensembles of classifiers produce better accuracy than a single classifier provided there is diversity in the ensemble. Furthermore, recent researches reveal that it may be better to ensemble some selected classifiers instead of all of the classifiers at hand. For the effective detection of ICA, we adopt ensemble size reduction technique that prunes the ensemble of all classifiers using accuracy and diversity measures. The diversity in ensemble manifests itself as disagreement or ambiguity among members. Data imbalance intrinsic to FDM affects our approach for ICA detection in two ways. First, we suggest the training procedure with over-sampling methods to obtain diverse training data sets. Second, we use some variants of accuracy and diversity measures that focus on fraud class. We also dynamically calculate the diversity measure-Forward Addition and Backward Elimination. In our experiments, Neural Networks, Decision Trees and Logit Regressions are the base models as the ensemble members and the performance of homogeneous ensembles are compared with that of heterogeneous ensembles. The experimental results show that the reduced size ensemble is as accurate on average over the data-sets tested as the non-pruned version, which provides benefits in terms of its application efficiency and reduced complexity of the ensemble.

Automatic Word Spacing of the Korean Sentences by Using End-to-End Deep Neural Network (종단 간 심층 신경망을 이용한 한국어 문장 자동 띄어쓰기)

  • Lee, Hyun Young;Kang, Seung Shik
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • 제8권11호
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    • pp.441-448
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    • 2019
  • Previous researches on automatic spacing of Korean sentences has been researched to correct spacing errors by using n-gram based statistical techniques or morpheme analyzer to insert blanks in the word boundary. In this paper, we propose an end-to-end automatic word spacing by using deep neural network. Automatic word spacing problem could be defined as a tag classification problem in unit of syllable other than word. For contextual representation between syllables, Bi-LSTM encodes the dependency relationship between syllables into a fixed-length vector of continuous vector space using forward and backward LSTM cell. In order to conduct automatic word spacing of Korean sentences, after a fixed-length contextual vector by Bi-LSTM is classified into auto-spacing tag(B or I), the blank is inserted in the front of B tag. For tag classification method, we compose three types of classification neural networks. One is feedforward neural network, another is neural network language model and the other is linear-chain CRF. To compare our models, we measure the performance of automatic word spacing depending on the three of classification networks. linear-chain CRF of them used as classification neural network shows better performance than other models. We used KCC150 corpus as a training and testing data.

The Application of Fuzzy Logic to Assess the Performance of Participants and Components of Building Information Modeling

  • Wang, Bohan;Yang, Jin;Tan, Adrian;Tan, Fabian Hadipriono;Parke, Michael
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2018
  • In the last decade, the use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) as a new technology has been applied with traditional Computer-aided design implementations in an increasing number of architecture, engineering, and construction projects and applications. Its employment alongside construction management, can be a valuable tool in helping move these activities and projects forward in a more efficient and time-effective manner. The traditional stakeholders, i.e., Owner, A/E and the Contractor are involved in this BIM system that is used in almost every activity of construction projects, such as design, cost estimate and scheduling. This article extracts major features of the application of BIM from perspective of participating BIM components, along with the different phrases, and applies to them a logistic analysis using a fuzzy performance tree, quantifying these phrases to judge the effectiveness of the BIM techniques employed. That is to say, these fuzzy performance trees with fuzzy logic concepts can properly translate the linguistic rating into numeric expressions, and are thus employed in evaluating the influence of BIM applications as a mathematical process. The rotational fuzzy models are used to represent the membership functions of the performance values and their corresponding weights. Illustrations of the use of this fuzzy BIM performance tree are presented in the study for the uninitiated users. The results of these processes are an evaluation of BIM project performance as highly positive. The quantification of the performance ratings for the individual factors is a significant contributor to this assessment, capable of parsing vernacular language into numerical data for a more accurate and precise use in performance analysis. It is hoped that fuzzy performance trees and fuzzy set analysis can be used as a tool for the quality and risk analysis for other construction techniques in the future. Baldwin's rotational models are used to represent the membership functions of the fuzzy sets. Three scenarios are presented using fuzzy MEAN, AND and OR gates from the lowest to intermediate levels of the tree, and fuzzy SUM gate to relate the intermediate level to the top component of the tree, i.e., BIM application final performance. The use of fuzzy MEAN for lower levels and fuzzy SUM gates to reach the top level suggests the most realistic and accurate results. The methodology (fuzzy performance tree) described in this paper is appropriate to implement in today's construction industry when limited objective data is presented and it is heavily relied on experts' subjective judgment.