• Title/Summary/Keyword: Forest Fire Prediction

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Predictive Analysis of Fire Risk Factors in Gyeonggi-do Using Machine Learning (머신러닝을 이용한 경기도 화재위험요인 예측분석)

  • Seo, Min Song;Castillo Osorio, Ever Enrique;Yoo, Hwan Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.351-361
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    • 2021
  • The seriousness of fire is rising because fire causes enormous damage to property and human life. Therefore, this study aims to predict various risk factors affecting fire by fire type. The predictive analysis of fire factors was carried out targeting Gyeonggi-do, which has the highest number of fires in the country. For the analysis, using machine learning methods SVM (Support Vector Machine), RF (Random Forest), GBRT (Gradient Boosted Regression Tree) the accuracy of each model was presented with a high fit model through MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error), and based on this, predictive analysis of fire factors in Gyeonggi-do was conducted. In addition, using machine learning methods such as SVM (Support Vector Machine), RF (Random Forest), and GBRT (Gradient Boosted Regression Tree), the accuracy of each model was presented with a high-fit model through MAE and RMSE. Predictive analysis of occurrence factors was achieved. Based on this, as a result of comparative analysis of three machine learning methods, the RF method showed a MAE = 1.765 and RMSE = 1.876, as well as the MAE and RMSE verification and test data were very similar with a difference between MAE = 0.046 and RMSE = 0.04 showing the best predictive results. The results of this study are expected to be used as useful data for fire safety management allowing decision makers to identify the sequence of dangers related to the factors affecting the occurrence of fire.

Data Mining based Forest Fires Prediction Models using Meteorological Data (기상 데이터를 이용한 데이터 마이닝 기반의 산불 예측 모델)

  • Kim, Sam-Keun;Ahn, Jae-Geun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.8
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    • pp.521-529
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    • 2020
  • Forest fires are one of the most important environmental risks that have adverse effects on many aspects of life, such as the economy, environment, and health. The early detection, quick prediction, and rapid response of forest fires can play an essential role in saving property and life from forest fire risks. For the rapid discovery of forest fires, there is a method using meteorological data obtained from local sensors installed in each area by the Meteorological Agency. Meteorological conditions (e.g., temperature, wind) influence forest fires. This study evaluated a Data Mining (DM) approach to predict the burned area of forest fires. Five DM models, e.g., Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forests (RF), and Deep Neural Network (DNN), and four feature selection setups (using spatial, temporal, and weather attributes), were tested on recent real-world data collected from Gyeonggi-do area over the last five years. As a result of the experiment, a DNN model using only meteorological data showed the best performance. The proposed model was more effective in predicting the burned area of small forest fires, which are more frequent. This knowledge derived from the proposed prediction model is particularly useful for improving firefighting resource management.

Application of Deep Learning: A Review for Firefighting

  • Shaikh, Muhammad Khalid
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.73-78
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    • 2022
  • The aim of this paper is to investigate the prevalence of Deep Learning in the literature on Fire & Rescue Service. It is found that deep learning techniques are only beginning to benefit the firefighters. The popular areas where deep learning techniques are making an impact are situational awareness, decision making, mental stress, injuries, well-being of the firefighter such as his sudden fall, inability to move and breathlessness, path planning by the firefighters while getting to an fire scene, wayfinding, tracking firefighters, firefighter physical fitness, employment, prediction of firefighter intervention, firefighter operations such as object recognition in smoky areas, firefighter efficacy, smart firefighting using edge computing, firefighting in teams, and firefighter clothing and safety. The techniques that were found applied in firefighting were Deep learning, Traditional K-Means clustering with engineered time and frequency domain features, Convolutional autoencoders, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Deep Neural Networks, Simulation, VR, ANN, Deep Q Learning, Deep learning based on conditional generative adversarial networks, Decision Trees, Kalman Filters, Computational models, Partial Least Squares, Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Edge computing, C5 Decision Tree, Restricted Boltzmann Machine, Reinforcement Learning, and Recurrent LSTM. The literature review is centered on Firefighters/firemen not involved in wildland fires. The focus was also not on the fire itself. It must also be noted that several deep learning techniques such as CNN were mostly used in fire behavior, fire imaging and identification as well. Those papers that deal with fire behavior were also not part of this literature review.

A Numerical Study on the Effects of the Wind Velocity and Height of Grassland on the flame Spread Rate of Forest Fires (초지화재 발생시 바람의 속도 및 초본의 높이가 화염전파에 미치는 영향에 대한 수치해석적 연구)

  • Bae, Sung-Yong;Kim, Dong-Hyun;Ryou, Hong-Sun;Lee, Sung-Hyuk
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.252-257
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    • 2008
  • With the rapid exuberant growth of the forest, the number and size of forest fires and the costs of wildland fires have increased. The flame spread rate of forest fires is depending on the environmental variables like the wind velocity, moisture of grassland, etc. If we know the effects of the environmental variables on the fire growth, it is useful for wildland fiIre suppression. But analysis of the spread rate of wildland fire for these effects have not been established. In this study, the effects of wind velocity and height of grassland fuel have been investigated using the WFDS which is developed at NIST for prediction of the spread of wildland fires. The results showed that the relation between the height of the fuel and the spread rate of the head fires is, and the spread rates related to the wind velocity are predicted 17% less than the experimental results of Australia. When the wind velocity is over 7.5m/s, the concentration of pyrolyzed gas phase fuel is getting low due to fast movement of pyrolyzed gas, the flame spread rate becomes slow.

Efficient Multicasting Mechanism for Mobile Computing Environment (산불 발생지역에서의 산불 이동속도 예측 및 안전구역 확보에 관한 연구)

  • Woo, Byeong-hun;Koo, Nam-kyoung;Oh, Young-jun;Jang, Kyung-sik;Lee, Kang-whan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.89-92
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we propose a method to reduce the fire suppression time. Our suggestions can secure a safe area according to the diffusion path and speed of the fire, forest fire prediction minimize casualties and property damage forests. The existing path prediction method wildfire spread predict the wildfire spread model and speed through topography, weather, fuel factor and the image information. In this case, however, occur to control a large mountain huge costs. Also Focus on the diffusion model predictions and the path identified by the problem arises that insufficient efforts to ensure the safe area. In this paper, we estimate the moving direction and speed of fire at a lower cost, and proposes an algorithm to ensure the safety zone for fire suppression. The proposed algorithm is a technique to analyze the attribute information that temperature, wind, smoke measured over time. According to our algorithm forecast wildfire moving direction and ensure the safety zone. By analyzing the moving speed and the moving direction of the simulated fire in a given environment is expected to be able to quickly reduce the damage to the forest fire fighters.

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Application of GeoWEPP to determine the annual average sediment yield of erosion control dams in Korea

  • Rhee, Hakjun;Seo, Junpyo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.803-814
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    • 2020
  • Managing erosion control dams requires the annual average sediment yield to determine their storage capacity and time to full sediment-fill and dredging. The GeoWEPP (Geo-spatial interface for Water Erosion Prediction Project) model can predict the annual average sediment yield from various land uses and vegetation covers at a watershed scale. This study assessed the GeoWEPP to determine the annual average sediment yield for managing erosion control dams by applying it to five erosion control dams and comparing the results with field observations using ground-based LiDAR (light detection and ranging). The modeling results showed some differences with the observed sediment yields. Therefore, GeoWEPP is not recommended to determine the annual average sediment yield for erosion control dams. Moreover, when using the GeoWEPP, the following is recommended :1) use the US WEPP climate files with similar latitude, elevation and precipitation modified with monthly average climate data in Korea and 2) use soil files based on forest soil maps in Korea. These methods resulted in GeoWEPP predictions and field observations of 0 and 63.3 Mg·yr-1 for the Gangneung, 142.3 and 331.2 Mg·yr-1 for the Bonghwa landslide, 102.0 and 107.8 Mg·yr-1 for the Bonghwa control, 294.7 and 115.0 Mg·yr-1 for the Chilgok forest fire, and 0 and 15.0 Mg·yr-1 for the Chilgok control watersheds. Application of the GeoWEPP in Korea requires 1) building a climate database fit for the WEPP using the meteorological data from Korea and 2) performing further studies on soil and streamside erosion to determine accurate parameter values for Korea.

A Study on Risk Assessment Method for Earthquake-Induced Landslides (지진에 의한 산사태 위험도 평가방안에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Junpyo;Eu, Song;Lee, Kihwan;Lee, Changwoo;Woo, Choongshik
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.694-709
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: In this study, earthquake-induced landslide risk assessment was conducted to provide basic data for efficient and preemptive damage prevention by selecting the erosion control work before the earthquake and the prediction and restoration priorities of the damaged area after the earthquake. Method: The study analyzed the previous studies abroad to examine the evaluation methodology and to derive the evaluation factors, and examine the utilization of the landslide hazard map currently used in Korea. In addition, the earthquake-induced landslide hazard map was also established on a pilot basis based on the fault zone and epicenter of Pohang using seismic attenuation. Result: The earthquake-induced landslide risk assessment study showed that China ranked 44%, Italy 16%, the U.S. 15%, Japan 10%, and Taiwan 8%. As for the evaluation method, the statistical model was the most common at 59%, and the physical model was found at 23%. The factors frequently used in the statistical model were altitude, distance from the fault, gradient, slope aspect, country rock, and topographic curvature. Since Korea's landslide hazard map reflects topography, geology, and forest floor conditions, it has been shown that it is reasonable to evaluate the risk of earthquake-induced landslides using it. As a result of evaluating the risk of landslides based on the fault zone and epicenter in the Pohang area, the risk grade was changed to reflect the impact of the earthquake. Conclusion: It is effective to use the landslide hazard map to evaluate the risk of earthquake-induced landslides at the regional scale. The risk map based on the fault zone is effective when used in the selection of a target site for preventive erosion control work to prevent damage from earthquake-induced landslides. In addition, the risk map based on the epicenter can be used for efficient follow-up management in order to prioritize damage prevention measures, such as to investigate the current status of landslide damage after an earthquake, or to restore the damaged area.

Classification of Soil Creep Hazard Class Using Machine Learning (기계학습기법을 이용한 땅밀림 위험등급 분류)

  • Lee, Gi Ha;Le, Xuan-Hien;Yeon, Min Ho;Seo, Jun Pyo;Lee, Chang Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2021
  • In this study, classification models were built using machine learning techniques that can classify the soil creep risk into three classes from A to C (A: risk, B: moderate, C: good). A total of six machine learning techniques were used: K-Nearest Neighbor, Support Vector Machine, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting and then their classification accuracy was analyzed using the nationwide soil creep field survey data in 2019 and 2020. As a result of classification accuracy analysis, all six methods showed excellent accuracy of 0.9 or more. The methods where numerical data were applied for data training showed better performance than the methods based on character data of field survey evaluation table. Moreover, the methods learned with the data group (R1~R4) reflecting the expert opinion had higher accuracy than the field survey evaluation score data group (C1~C4). The machine learning can be used as a tool for prediction of soil creep if high-quality data are continuously secured and updated in the future.

Prediction of Potential Habitat and Damage Amount of Rare·Endemic Plants (Sophora Koreensis Nakai) Using NBR and MaxEnt Model Analysis - For the Forest Fire Area of Bibongsan (Mt.) in Yanggu - (NBR과 MaxEnt 모델 분석을 활용한 희귀특산식물(개느삼) 분포 및 피해량 예측 - 양구 비봉산 산불피해지를 대상으로-)

  • Yun, Ho-Geun;Lee, Jong-Won;An, Jong-Bin;Yu, Seung-Bong;Bak, Gi-Ppeum;Shin, Hyun-Tak;Park, Wan-Geun;Kim, Sang-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.169-182
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    • 2022
  • This study was conducted to predict the distribution of rare·endemic plants (Sophora koreensis Nakai) in the border forests where wildfire damage occurred and to quantify the damage. For this purpose, we tried to derive more accurate results through forest area damage (NBR) according to the Burn severity of wildfires, damage by tree species type (Vegetation map), and MaxEnt model. For Burn severity analysis, satellite imagery (Landsat-8) was used to analyze Burn severity (ΔNBR2016-2015) and to derive the extent of damage. To prepare the Vegetation map, the land cover map prepared by the Ministry of Environment, the Vegetation map prepared by the Korea Forest Service, and the vegetation survey conducted by itself were conducted to prepare the clinical map before and after the forest fire. Lastly, for MaxEnt model analysis, the AUC value was derived by using the habitat coordinates of Sophora koreensis Nakai based on the related literature and self-report data. As a result of combining the Maxent model analysis data with the Burn severity data, it was confirmed that 45.9% of the 44,760 m2 of habitat (predicted) area of Sophora koreensis Nakai in the wildfire damaged area or 20,552 m2, was damaged.