• 동아시아경상학회지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.24-36
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• 2018

Purpose - From establishing China-Japan diplomatic relations in 1972, the relations between two states has improved a lot, from which makes the government and the people reap much benefit. Owing to this reason, this paper aims at exploiting the impact of exchange rate volatility of RMB on China's foreign direct investment to Japan. Research design and methodology - The quarterly time series data from 2003 to 2016 will be employed to conduct an empirical analysis under the vector error correction model. Meanwhile, a menu of estimated methods such the Johansen co-integration test and the Granger Causality test will be also used to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility of RMB on China's foreign direct investment to Japan. Results - The empirical analysis results exhibit that the real exchange rate has a positive effect on China's foreign direct investment to Japan in the long run. Conversely, the real exchange rate volatility of RMB, the trade openness and the real GDP have a negative effect on China's foreign direct investment to Japan in the long run. However, in the short run, the China's foreign direct investment to Japan, the real exchange rate, the trade openness and the real GDP in period have a negative effect on China's foreign direct investment to Japan in period. Oppositely, the real exchange rate volatility of RMB in period has a positive effect on China's foreign direct investment to Japan in period. Conclusions - From the empirical evidences in this paper provided, it can be concluded that an increase in the exchange rate volatility of RMB can result in a decrease in the China's foreign direct investment to Japan in the long run. However, an increase in the exchange rate volatility of RMB can lead to an increase in the China's foreign direct investment to Japan in the short run. Therefore, the China's government should have a best control of the real exchange rate volatility of RMB so as to improve China's foreign direct investment to Japan.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.33-50
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• 2023

Foreign exchange options are derivative financial instruments that can exchange one currency for another at a prescribed exchange rate on a specified date. In this study, we examine the analytic formulas for vulnerable foreign exchange options based on multi-scale stochastic volatility driven by two diffusion processes: a fast mean-reverting process and a slow mean-reverting process. In particular, we take advantage of the asymptotic analysis and the technique of the Mellin transform on the partial differential equation (PDE) with respect to the option price, to derive approximated prices that are combined with a leading order price and two correction term prices. To verify the price accuracy of the approximated solutions, we utilize the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, in the numerical experiments, we investigate the behaviors of the vulnerable foreign exchange options prices in terms of model parameters and the sensitivities of the stochastic volatility factors to the option price.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.365-390
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• 2016

This paper quantitatively compares the intrinsic features of the daily USD-GBP exchange rates in two different periods, the 1920s and the 2010s, under the same freely floating exchange rate system. Even though the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be much less organized and developed than in the 2010s, this paper finds that both the long memory volatility property and the structural break appear to be the common intrigue features of the exchange rates in the two periods by using the FIGARCH model. In particular, the long memory volatility properties in the two periods are found to be upward biased and overstated because of the structural breaks in the exchange markets. Thus this paper applies the Adaptive-FIGARCH model to consider the long memory volatility property and the structural breaks jointly. The main finding is that the structural breaks in the exchange markets affect the long memory volatility property significantly in the two periods but the degree of the long memory volatility property in the 1920s is reduced more remarkably than in the 2010s after the structural breaks are accounted for; thus implying that the structural breaks in the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be more significant.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.119-126
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• 2021

This study is to examine the foreign direct investment (FDI) response to real effective exchange rate volatility in Vietnam by using the vector autoregression model. The research data are quarterly frequency data in the period from 2004:Q1 to 2019:Q2. The data on real effective exchange rate were collected from the statistics of Bruegel (Europe) and FDI data were collected from the International Financial Statistics. The quantitative study was conducted with two steps: (1) measuring exchange rate volatility by the GARCH(1,1) method; and (2) examining the impact of exchange rate volatility on FDI in the context of the global financial crisis. The estimation results show that FDI responded significantly to real exchange rate volatility with the lag of 3 periods at the 5% significance level. The FDI response increased after the exchange rate volatility with the lag of 3 periods, and the impact extended to the lag of 6 periods, and then gradually stabilized. The research findings indicate that FDI in Vietnam responds positively and significantly to exchange rate volatility with the lag of 3 periods. Simultaneously, the negative impact of the global financial crisis in 2008 with the lag of 2 periods leads to a slight decrease in FDI inflows into Vietnam.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.275-322
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• 2015

The key objective of this study is to investigate the return and volatility spillover effects among stock market, credit default swap (CDS) market and foreign exchange market for three countries: Korea, the US and Japan. Using the trivariate VAR BEKK GARCH (1,1) model, the study finds that there are significant return and volatility spillover effects between the Korean CDS market and the Korean stock market. In addition, the return spillover effects from foreign exchange markets and the US stock market to the Korean stock market, and the volatility spillover effect from the Japanese stock market to the Korean stock market are both significant.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.23-36
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• 2021

The study explores the nexus between foreign direct investment (FDI), financial innovation, and exchange rate volatility in selected South Asian countries for 1980 to 2017. The study applies the unit root test, Autoregressive Distributed Lagged, nonlinear ARDL, and causality test following Toda-Yamamoto. Unit root tests ascertain that variables are integrated in a mixed order; few variables are stationary at a level and few after the first difference. Empirical model estimation with ARDL, Long-run cointegration revealed with the tests of FPSS, WPSS, and tBDM by rejecting the null hypothesis of "no cointegration." This finding suggests that, in the long-run financial innovation, FDI inflows, and exchange rate volatility move together. Moreover, study findings established adverse effects running from FDI inflows and financial innovation to exchange rate volatility in the long run. These findings suggest that continual FDI inflows and innovativeness in the financial system assist in lessening the volatility in the foreign exchange market. Furthermore, nonlinear ARDL confirms the presence of asymmetric cointegration in the model. The standard Wald test established asymmetric effects running from FDI inflows and financial innovation to exchange rate volatility, both in the long and short run. Directional causality unveils feedback hypothesis holds for explaining causality between FDI, financial innovation, and exchange rate volatility.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권5호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2022

The study examines stock prices (LOGKSE) and exchange rate (LOGPK)-Pakistani Rupee vis-à-vis US Dollar- interactions in Pakistan. This study employs a multivariate VAR-GARCH model using monthly data from January 2012 to October 2020. The results of the Johansen cointegration test show that there is no relationship between Foreign Exchange Market and Stock Market in the long run. In the short-run, stock exchange returns are affected slightly negatively by the changes in the foreign exchange market, but the foreign exchange market does not seem to be affected by the ups and downs of the stock exchange. The VAR model and Granger Causality show that both markets are strongly influenced by their own lagged values rather than by the lagged values of one another and show weak or no correlation between the two markets. Volatility persistence is observed in both the stock and foreign exchange markets, implying that shocks and past period volatility are major drivers of future volatility in both markets. Thus greater uncertainties today will induce panic and consequently generate higher volatility in the future period. This phenomenon has been observed many times on Pakistan Stock Exchange especially. The results have important implications for local international investors in portfolio diversification decisions and risk hedging strategies.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.3-27
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• 2014

This paper examines the effects of financial crises on the long memory volatility dependency of daily exchange returns focusing on the Asian crisis in 97-98 and the Global crisis in 08-09. By using the daily KRW-USD and JPY-USD exchange rates which have different trading regions and volumes, this paper first applies both the parametric FIGARCH model and the semi-parametric Local Whittle method to estimate the long memory volatility dependency of the daily returns and the temporally aggregated returns of the two exchange rates. Then it compares the effects of the two financial crises on the long memory volatility dependency of the daily returns. The estimation results reflect that the long memory volatility dependency of the KRW-USD is generally greater than that of the JPY-USD returns and the long memory dependency of the two returns appears to be invariant to temporal aggregation. And, the two financial crises appear to affect the volatility dynamics of all the returns by inducing greater long memory dependency in the volatility process of the exchange returns, but the degree of the effects of the two crises seems to be different on the exchange rates.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.3-38
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• 2015

Fama's (1984) volatility relations show that the risk premium in foreign exchange markets is more volatile than, and is negatively correlated with the expected rate of depreciation. This paper studies these relations from the perspective of goods markets frictions. Using a sticky-price general equilibrium model, we show that near-random walk behaviors of both exchange rates and consumption, in response to monetary shocks, can be derived endogenously. Based on this approach, the paper provides quantitative results on Fama's volatility relations.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.37-47
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• 2022

This study uses monthly data from January 2009 to December 2020 to examine the effectiveness of foreign currency intervention and its influence on monetary policy in Vietnam using a Hierarchical Bayesian VAR model. The findings suggest that foreign exchange intervention has little influence on the exchange rate level or exports, but it can significantly minimize exchange rate volatility. As a result, we can demonstrate that the claim that Vietnam is a currency manipulator is false. As well, the forecast error variance decomposition results reveal that interest rate differentials mainly determine the exchange rate level instead of foreign exchange intervention. Moreover, the findings suggest that foreign exchange intervention is not effectively sterilized in Vietnam. Inflation is caused by an increase in international reserves, which leads to an expansion of the money supply and a decrease in interest rates. Although the impact of foreign exchange intervention grows in tandem with the growth of international reserves, if the sterilizing capacity does not improve, rising foreign exchange intervention will instead result in inflation. Finally, we use a rolling window approach to examine the time-varying effect of foreign exchange intervention.