• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 2000년도 제15차 학술회의논문집
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• pp.368-368
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• 2000

In this paper, we present forecasting ozone concentration with decision support system. Since the mechanism of ozone concentration is highly complex, nonlinear, and nonstationary, modeling of ozone prediction system has many problems and results of prediction are not good performance so far. Forecasting ozone concentration with decision support system is acquired to information from human knowledge and experiment data. Fuzzy clustering method uses the acquisition and dynamic polynomial neural network gives us a good performance for ozone prediction with ability of superior data approximation and self-organization.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.109-128
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• 2016

This paper presents a new combined forecasting method that is guided by the soft set theory (CFBSS) to predict business failures with different sample sizes. The proposed method combines both qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to improve forecasting performance. We considered an expert system (ES), logistic regression (LR), and support vector machine (SVM) as forecasting components whose weights are determined by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The proposed procedure was applied to real data sets from Chinese listed firms. For performance comparison, single ES, LR, and SVM methods, the combined forecasting method based on equal weights (CFBEWs), the combined forecasting method based on neural networks (CFBNNs), and the combined forecasting method based on rough sets and the D-S theory (CFBRSDS) were also included in the empirical experiment. CFBSS obtains the highest forecasting accuracy and the second-best forecasting stability. The empirical results demonstrate the superior forecasting performance of our method in terms of accuracy and stability.

• 한국축산시설환경학회지
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.15-22
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• 2000

A monitoring and the forecasting system for the swine delivery was developed using CCD camera multi-function board microphone and data-recorder equipped on a personal computer. For the swine delivery monitoring and forecasting factors four factors were selected such as genitalia swine body shape breast color and sound. Image of physical variation of body shape, shape and color of genitalia area and color of breast of pregnant sow were grabbed using the CCD color camera and multi-function board and variation of voice of pregnant sow was acquired using microphone and data recorder. Acquired information of image and voice were analyzed using a custom developed algorithm and program. The result of the forecasting efficiency of swine delivery was 89%, 71% and 100% using the variation of genitalia are the body shape and the voice of pregnant sow. respectively. The efficiency of image processing was 100% for the delivery detection when the piglet was delivered half of its body from genitalia of pregnant sow, The monitoring and forecasting system informed the estimated time of the delivery of swine to a farm manager immediately if an estimated and established time set by the farm manager was the same and/or the estimated time ws earlier than the established time and the system detected the delivery.

• 한국인공지능학회지
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.17-24
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• 2024

This paper introduces a novel approach to time-series estimation for energy load forecasting within Virtual Power Plant (VPP) systems, leveraging advanced artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, namely Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). Virtual power plants, which integrate diverse microgrids managed by Energy Management Systems (EMS), require precise forecasting techniques to balance energy supply and demand efficiently. The paper introduces a hybrid-method forecasting model combining a parametric-based statistical technique and an AI algorithm. The LSTM algorithm is particularly employed to discern pattern correlations over fixed intervals, crucial for predicting accurate future energy loads. SARIMA is applied to generate time-series forecasts, accounting for non-stationary and seasonal variations. The forecasting model incorporates a broad spectrum of distributed energy resources, including renewable energy sources and conventional power plants. Data spanning a decade, sourced from the Korea Power Exchange (KPX) Electrical Power Statistical Information System (EPSIS), were utilized to validate the model. The proposed hybrid LSTM-SARIMA model with parameter sets (1, 1, 1, 12) and (2, 1, 1, 12) demonstrated a high fidelity to the actual observed data. Thus, it is concluded that the optimized system notably surpasses traditional forecasting methods, indicating that this model offers a viable solution for EMS to enhance short-term load forecasting.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.349-354
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• 1999

The transfer function was introduced to establish the prediction method for the DO concentration at the intaking point of Kongju Water Works System. In the mose cases we analyze a single time series without explicitly using information contained in the related time series. In many forecasting situations, other events will systematically influence the series to be forecasted(the dependent variables), and therefore, there is need to go beyond a univariate forecasting model. Thus, we must bulid a forecasting model that incorporates more than one time series and introduces explicitly the dynamic characteristics of the system. Such a model is called a multiple time series model or transfer function model. The purpose of this study is to develop the stochastic stream water quality model for the intaking station of Kongju city waterworks in Keum river system. The performance of the multiplicative ARIMA model and the transfer function noise model were examined through comparisons between the historical and generated monthly dissolved oxygen series. The result reveal that the transfer function noise model lead to the improved accuracy.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2006년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.28-35
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• 2006

Global Flood Alert System (GFAS) is an attempt to make the best use of satellite rainfall data in flood forecasting. The project of GFAS is promoted both by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport-Japan (MLIT) and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), under which Infrastructure Development Institute-Japan (IDI) has been working on the development of Internet-based information system and just launched trial run of GFAS in April 2006 on International Flood Network (IFNet) website. The function of GFAS is to connect space agencies and hydrological services/river authorities in charge of flood forecasting and warning by providing global rainfall information in maps, text data e-mails and so on which is produced from binary global rainfall data downloaded from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) website. Although the effectiveness of satellite rainfall data in flood forecasting and warning has yet to be verified, satellite rainfall is expected to play an important role to strengthen existing flood forecasting systems by diversifying hydrological data source.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2008년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.2193-2196
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• 2008

In this study, the new methodology such as support vector machines neural networks model (SVM-NNM) using the statistical learning theory is introduced to forecast flood stage in Nakdong river, Republic of Korea. The SVM-NNM in hydrologic time series forecasting is relatively new, and it is more problematic in comparison with classification. And, the multilayer perceptron neural networks model (MLP-NNM) is introduced as the reference neural networks model to compare the performance of SVM-NNM. And, for the performances of the neural networks models, they are composed of training, cross validation, and testing data, respectively. From this research, we evaluate the impact of the SVM-NNM and the MLP-NNM for the forecasting of the hydrologic time series in Nakdong river. Furthermore, we can suggest the new methodology to forecast the flood stage and construct the optimal forecasting system in Nakdong river, Republic of Korea.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.339-348
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• 2007

Since the 1980s, the marketing paradigm has rapidly changed from product-driven marketing to customer-driven marketing. Recently, due to an increase in the amount of information, customer-differentiation strategies have been emphasized more than product-differentiation strategies. This paper suggests a methodology for new customer segmentation and purchase forecasting using changes in customer behavior. This methodology includes a segmentation method for new customers using existing customer's characteristics and a purchase-forecasting system using the purchase-behavior patterns of existing customers. The proposed methodology not only provides differential services from a segmentation system but also recommends differential items from the purchase forecasting system for new and existing customers.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국신재생에너지학회 2006년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.323-324
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• 2006

In the present paper a forecasting system of wind power generation for Walryong Site, Jejudo is presented, which has been developed and evaluated as a first step toward establishing Korea Forecasting Model of Wind Power Generation. The forecasting model, KIER forecaster is constructed based on statistical models and is trained with wind speed data observed at Gosan Weather Station nearby Walryong Si to. Due to short period of measurements at Walryong Site for training statistical model, Gosan wind data were substituted and transplanted to Walryong Site by using Measure-Correlate-Predict technique. Three-hour advanced forecast ins shows good agreement with the measurement at Walryong site with the correlation factor 0.88 and MAE(mean absolute error) 15% under.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 1996년도 하계학술대회 논문집 B
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• pp.698-700
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• 1996

A knowledge based forecasting system for special days has been developed for the economic and secure operation of electric power system. If-then production rules has been adopted in this system to be used in various environmental conditions. Graphic user interfaces enables a user to access easily to the system. The simulation based on the historical data have shown that the forecasting result was improved remarkably when compared to the results from the conventional statistical methods. The forecasting results can be used for power system operational planning to improve security and economy of the power system.