• Title/Summary/Keyword: Forecasting biomass

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A study on the forecasting biomass according to the changes in fishing intensity in the Korean waters of the East Sea (한국 동해 생태계의 어획강도 변화에 따른 자원량 예측 연구)

  • LIM, Jung-Hyun;SEO, Young-Il;ZHANG, Chang-Ik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.217-223
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    • 2018
  • Overfishing capacity has become a global issue due to over-exploitation of fisheries resources, which result from excessive fishing intensity since the 1980s. In the case of Korea, the fishing effort has been quantified and used as an quantified index of fishing intensity. Fisheries resources of coastal fisheries in the Korean waters of the East Sea tend to decrease productivity due to deterioration in the quality of ecosystem, which result from the excessive overfishing activities according to the development of fishing gear and engine performance of vessels. In order to manage sustainable and reasonable fisheries resources, it is important to understand the fluctuation of biomass and predict the future biomass. Therefore, in this study, we forecasted biomass in the Korean waters of the East Sea for the next two decades (2017~2036) according to the changes in fishing intensity using four fishing effort scenarios; $f_{current}$, $f_{PY}$, $0.5{\times}f_{current}$ and $1.5{\times}f_{current}$. For forecasting biomass in the Korean waters of the East Sea, parameters such as exploitable carrying capacity (ECC), intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) and catchability (q) estimated by maximum entropy (ME) model was utilized and logistic function was used. In addition, coefficient of variation (CV) by the Jackknife re-sampling method was used for estimation of coefficient of variation about exploitable carrying capacity ($CV_{ECC}$). As a result, future biomass can be fluctuated below the $B_{PY}$ level when the current level of fishing effort in 2016 maintains. The results of this study are expected to be utilized as useful data to suggest direction of establishment of fisheries resources management plan for sustainable use of fisheries resources in the future.

Correlations of Rice Grain Yields to Radiometric Estimates of Canopy Biomass as a Function of Growth Stage, : Hand-Held Radiometric Measurements of Two of the Thematic Mapper's Spectral Bands Indicate that the Forecasting of Rice Grain Yields is Feasible at Early to Mid Canopy Development Stages

  • Yang, Young-Kyu;Miller, Lee-D.
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.63-87
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    • 1985
  • Considerable experience has been reported on the use of spectral data to measure the canopy biomass of dryland grain crops and the use of these estimates to forecast subsequent grain yield. These basic procedures were retested to assess the use of the general process to forecasting grain yield for paddy rice. The use of the ratio of a multiband radiometer simulation of Thematic Mapper band 4(.76 to .90 .mu.m) divided by band 3 (.63 to .69 .mu.m) was tested to estimate the canopy biomass of paddy rice as a function of the stage of development of the rice. The correlation was found to be greatest (R = .94) at panicle differentiation about midway through the development cycle of the rice canopy. The use of this ratio of two spectral bands as a surrogate for canopy biomass was then tested for its correlation against final grain yield. These spectral estimates of canopy biomass produced the highest correlations with final grain yield (R = .87) when measured at the canopy development stages of panicle differentiation and heading. The impact of varying the amounts of supplemental nitrogen on the use of spectral measuremants of canopy biomass to estimate grain yield was also determined. The effect of the development of a significant amount of weed biomass in the rice canopy was also clearly detected.

Forecasting biomass and recruits by age-structured spawner-recruit model incorporating environmental variables (환경요인을 결합한 연령구조 재생산모델에 의한 자원량 및 가입량 예측)

  • Lee, Jae Bong;Lee, Dong Woo;Choi, Ilsu;Zhang, Chang Ik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.445-451
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    • 2012
  • We developed an age-based spawner-recruit model incorporating environmental variables to forecast stock biomass and recruits of pelagic fish in this study. We applied the model to the Tsushima stock of jack mackerel, which is shared by Korea and Japan. The stock biomass of jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) around Korean waters ranged from 141 thousand metric tons (mt) and 728 thousand mt and recruits ranged from 27 thousand mt to 283 thousand mt. We hind-casted the stock biomass to evaluate the model performance and robustness for the period of 1987~2009. It was found that the model has been useful to forecast stock biomass and recruits for the period of the lifespan of fish species. The model is also capable of forecasting the long-term period, assuming a certain climatic regime.

Analysis of the Contribution of Biomass Burning Emissions in East Asia to the PM10 and Radiation Energy Budget in Korea (동아시아의 생체연소 배출물에 대한 한국의 미세먼지 기여도 및 복사 에너지 수지 분석)

  • Lee, Ji-Hee;Cho, Jae-Hee;Kim, Hak-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.265-282
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    • 2022
  • This study analyzes the impact of long-range transport of biomass burning emissions from northeastern China on the concentration of particulate matter of diameter less than 10 ㎛ (PM10) in Korea using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). Korea was impacted by anthropogenic emissions from eastern China, dust storms from northern China and Mongolia, and biomass burning emissions from northeast China between April 4-and 7, 2020. The contributions of long-range PM10 transport were calculated by separating biomass burning emissions from mixed air pollutants with anthropogenic emissions and dust storms using the zeroing-out method. Further, the radiation energy budget over land and sea around the Korean Peninsula was analyzed according to the distribution of biomass burning emissions. Based on the WRF-Chem simulation during April 5-6, 2020, the contribution of long-range transport of biomass burning emissions was calculated as 60% of the daily PM10 average in Korea. The net heat flux around the Korean Peninsula was in a negative phase due to the influence of the large-scale biomass burning emissions. However, the contribution of biomass burning emissions was analyzed to be <45% during April 7-8, 2020, when the anthropogenic emissions from eastern China were added to biomass burning emissions, and PM10 concentration increased compared with the concentration recorded during April 5-6, 2020 in Korea. Furthermore, the net heat flux around the Korean Peninsula increased to a positive phase with the decreasing influence of biomass burning emissions.

Physico-chemical Characteristics of Submicron Aerosol at West Inflow Regions in the Korean Peninsula III. Physical-Chemical Behavior and Long-range Transport of PM1 (한반도 서부유입권역에서 대기 중 에어로졸 성분의 물리·화학적 특성 연구 III. 화학적 거동 및 장거리 이동)

  • Park, Taehyun;Ahn, Junyoung;Choi, Jinsoo;Lim, Yongjae;Park, Jinsoo;Kim, Jeongho;Oh, Jun;Lee, Yonghwan;Hong, Youdeog;Hong, Jihyung;Choi, Yongjoo;Lee, Taehyoung
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.124-138
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    • 2017
  • Physico-chemical measurement of non-refractory submicron particles($NR-PM_1$) was conducted in Baengnyeong Island, Korea using Aerodyne High Resolution Time of Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS) from 2012 to 2014. Organics and ammoniated sulfate were dominant species in $NR-PM_1$. The organics was found to have similar fractions(approximate 40%) of $NR-PM_1$ during the summer and winter, while the sulfate fractions of $NR-PM_1$ were calculated to be approximately 47% and 31% for the summer and winter, respectively, suggesting the possibility that particles provide non-acidic surfaces for condensation of nitric acid in the winter. The nitrate fractions of approximate 4% and 20% of $NR-PM_1$ were observed in August (summer) and November (winter), respectively, resulting that the relatively low concentration of sulfate in $NR-PM_1$ provided a non-acidic surface for nitric acid condensation and formation of particulate ammoniated nitrate is favored thermodynamically in winter. The new particle formation (NPF) event and particle growth rate were analyzed for each month in 2014 using Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer(SMPS). The Percent of NPF events was the highest in winter, but NPF event was not observed during summer due to relatively high temperature and frequent rainfall. The average particle growth rate was 3.5 nm/h and the highest particle growth rate was 5.5 nm/h in May. We observed the long-range transport of the anthropogenic sulfate from the East Asia during the intensive monitoring period of November between Qingdao and Baengnyeong Island in 2013. The relatively high concentrations of m/z 60 measured in HR-ToF-AMS was observed in May and June at Baengnyeong Island, suggesting the possibility of the influence of biomass burning from the East Asia to the Korean Peninsula.

New Approach to Air Quality Management (대기오염관리의 새로운 접근방법)

  • 윤명조
    • Journal of environmental and Sanitary engineering
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.25-48
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    • 1993
  • International concern over the environmental pollution is ever increasing, and diversified countermeasures must be devised in Korea also. Global trend, damages, problems and countermeasures with respect to issues mentioned in the Rio Declaration, such as prevention of ozone layer destruction, reduction of migratory atmospheric pollution between neighboring countries, and prevention of global greenhouse effect, were discussed in this report. Conclusion of the report is summarized as follows : A. Measurement, Planning and Monitoring (1) Development and implementation of a global network for measurement and monitoring from the global aspects such factors as related to acid rain(Pioneer substances, pH, sulfate, nitrate), effect of global temperature(Air temperature, $CO_2$, $CH_4$, CFC, $N_2O$) and destruction of ozone layer($CFC_S$). (2) Establishment of network system via satellite monitoring movement of regional air mass, damage on the ozone layer and ground temperature distribution. B. Elucidation of Present State (1) Improvement and development of devices for carbon circulation capable of accurately forecasting input and output of carbon. (2) Developmental research on chemical reactions of greenhouse gas in the air. (3) Improvement and development of global circulation model(GCM) C. Impact Assessment Impact assessment on ecosystem, human body, agriculture, floodgate, land use, coastal ecology, industries, etc. D. Preventive Measures and Technology Development (1) Development and consumption of new energy (2) Development of new technology for removal of pioneer substances (3) Development of substitute matter for $CFC_S$ (4) Improvement of agriculture and forestry means to prevent the destruction of ozone layer and the greenhouse effect of the globe (5) Improvement of housing to prevent the destruction of ozone layer and the greenhouse effect of the globe (6) Development of new technology for probing underground water (7) Preservation of forest (8) Biomass 5. Policy Development (1) Development of strategy model (2) Development of long term forecast model (3) Development of penalty charge effect and expense evaluation methods (4) Feasibility study on regulations By establishing the above mentioned measures for environmentally sound and sustainable development to establish the right to live for humankind and to preserve the one and only earth.

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Diagnosis of Vegetation for the Ecological Rehabilitation of Streams - The Case of the Namhan River - (하천의 생태적 복원을 위한 식생학적 진단 - 남한강을 중심으로 -)

  • Myung, Hyun;Kwon, Sang-Zoon;Kim, Chang-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.98-106
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    • 2002
  • This study was designed to present a river model with the aim of restoring the ecosystem and improving the landscape along the urban rivers on the basin of the Namhanl river, a core life channel for the National Capital regin. The revelation of botanical status, transition trend and correlation of plants might lead to providing the urban river restoration projects and ecological river formation projects with basic data for a model of ideal aquatic ecology and landscape. The outcomes of this study could be summed up as follows: 1. The plant communities of river flora found on the basin of the Namhan river could be categorized largely into 39 plant communities 2. Most diverse plants were distributed in the rivers lower reaches such as Unsim-ri where the protected zone of Paldang reservoir for city water borders the body of Jodae swamp where natural streams flow nearby. 3. One of the greatest threats to the biomass of the River Namhan is that the communities of such invasive alien plants as Panicum dichotomiflorum and Ambrosia artemisiifolia var. elatior dominate most parts of the area, a fact that has resulted in a reduced variety of plants and will, sooner or later, be likely to cause an ecological imbalance in the hitherto healthy Aquatic plant life. It is highly advisable to gradually diversify the species of trees and to return the plants bark to their original state since, besides the naturalized plants, plantations afforested with Erigeron canadensis and Erigeron annuus stocks in buckwheat field, Robinia Pseudo-accacia in riverside forest, Pinus rigida in terrestrial forest on the river basin and Larix leptolepis are anticipated to act as interceptors of normal migrations of the fluvial and terrestrial ecosystems. Finally, it seems also desirable to continue to explore the relationship between fluvial and terrestrial ecologies with the purpose of building up a model of natural streams in urban areas based on the surveyed factors for plant life, soil and landscape and, moreover, on the forecasting for overall influences derived from the rotation upon the ecosystem.

A Study on CNN based Production Yield Prediction Algorithm for Increasing Process Efficiency of Biogas Plant

  • Shin, Jaekwon;Kim, Jintae;Lee, Beomhee;Lee, Junghoon;Lee, Jisung;Jeong, Seongyeob;Chang, Soonwoong
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.42-47
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    • 2018
  • Recently, as the demand for limited resources continues to rise and problems of resource depletion rise worldwide, the importance of renewable energy is gradually increasing. In order to solve these problems, various methods such as energy conservation and alternative energy development have been suggested, and biogas, which can utilize the gas produced from biomass as fuel, is also receiving attention as the next generation of innovative renewable energy. New and renewable energy using biogas is an energy production method that is expected to be possible in large scale because it can supply energy with high efficiency in compliance with energy supply method of recycling conventional resources. In order to more efficiently produce and manage these biogas, a biogas plant has emerged. In recent years, a large number of biogas plants have been installed and operated in various locations. Organic wastes corresponding to biogas production resources in a biogas plant exist in a wide variety of types, and each of the incoming raw materials is processed in different processes. Because such a process is required, the case where the biogas plant process is inefficiently operated is continuously occurring, and the economic cost consumed for the operation of the biogas production relative to the generated biogas production is further increased. In order to solve such problems, various attempts such as process analysis and feedback based on the feedstock have been continued but it is a passive method and very limited to operate a medium/large scale biogas plant. In this paper, we propose "CNN-based production yield prediction algorithm for increasing process efficiency of biogas plant" for efficient operation of biogas plant process. Based on CNN-based production yield forecasting, which is one of the deep-leaning technologies, it enables mechanical analysis of the process operation process and provides a solution for optimal process operation due to process-related accumulated data analyzed by the automated process.