• Water Engineering Research
• /
• 제2권2호
• /
• pp.113-121
• /
• 2001

The objective of this study is to develop a prediction mode for a flood forecasting system in the downstream of the Nakdong river basin. Ranging from the gauging station at Jindong to the Nakdong estuary barrage, the hydraulic flood routing model(DWOPER) based on the Saint Venant equation was calibrated by comparing the calculated river stage with the observed river stages using four different flood events recorded. The upstream boundary condition was specified by the measured river stage data at Jindong station and the downstream boundary condition was given according to the tide level data observed at he Nakdong estuary barrage. The lateral inflow from tributaries were estimated by the rainfall-runoff model. In the calibration process, the optimum roughness coefficients for proper functions of channel reach and discharge were determined by minimizing the sum of the differences between the observed and the computed stage. In addition, the forecasting lead time on the basis of each gauging station was determined by a numerical simulation technique. Also, we suggested a model structure for a real-time flood forecasting system and tested it on the basis of past flood events. The testing results of the developed system showed close agreement between the forecasted and observed stages. Therefore, it is expected that the flood forecasting system we developed can improve the accuracy of flood forecasting on the Nakdong river.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
• /
• 제55권2호
• /
• pp.85-93
• /
• 2006

Since the SMP(System Marginal Price) is a vital factor to the market participants who intend to maximize the their profit and to the ISO(Independent System Operator) who wish to operate the electricity market in a stable sense, the short-term marginal price forecasting should be performed correctly. In an electricity market the short-term market price affects considerably the short-term trading between the market entities. Therefore, the exact forecasting of SMP can influence on the profit of market participants. This paper presents a new methodology for a day-ahead SMP forecasting using ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model based on the time-series method. And also the correction algorithm is proposed to minimize the forecasting error in order to improve the efficiency and accuracy of the SMP forecasting. To show the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method, the case studies are performed using historical data of SMP in 2004 published by KPX(Korea Power Exchange).

• 전기학회논문지
• /
• 제58권1호
• /
• pp.18-22
• /
• 2009

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is an important task in power system planning and operation. Its accuracy affects the reliability and economic operation of power systems. STLF is to be classified into load forecasting for weekdays, weekends, and holidays. Due to the limited historical data available, it is more difficult to accurately forecast load for holidays than to forecast load for weekdays and weekends. It has been recognized that the forecasting errors for holidays are large compared with those for weekdays in Korea. This paper presents a polynomial regression with data mining technique to forecast load for holidays. In statistics, a polynomial is widely used in situations where the response is curvilinear, because even complex nonlinear relationships can be adequately modeled by polynomials over a reasonably small range of the dependent variables. In the paper, the coefficient of determination is proposed as a selection criterion for screening weekday data used in holiday load forecasting. A numerical example is presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed holiday load forecasting method.

• 지능정보연구
• /
• 제4권2호
• /
• pp.23-34
• /
• 1998

Travel time forecasting, especially public bus travel time forecasting in urban areas, is a difficult and complex problem which requires a prohibitively large computation time and years of experience. As the network of target area grows with addition of streets and lanes, computational burden of the forecasting systems exponentially increases. Even though the travel time between two neighboring intersections is known a priori, it is still difficult, if not impossible, to compute the travel time between every two intersections. For the reason, previous approaches frequently have oversimplified the transportation network to show feasibilities of the problem solving algorithms. In this paper, forecasting of the travel time between every two intersections is attempted based on travel time data between two neighboring intersections. The time stamps data of public buses which recorded arrival time at predetermined bus stops was extensively collected and forecast. At first, the time stamp data was categorized to eliminate white noise, uncontrollable in forecasting, based on wavelet conversion. Then, the radial basis neural networks was applied to remaining data, which showed relatively accurate results. The success of the attempt was confirmed by the drastically reduced relative error when the nodes between the target intersections increases. In general, as the number of the nodes between target intersections increases, the relative error shows the tendency of sharp increase. The experimental results of the novel approaches, based on wavelet conversion and neural network teaming mechanism, showed the forecasting methodology is very promising.

• 전기학회논문지
• /
• 제62권2호
• /
• pp.149-154
• /
• 2013

Short term load forecasting for electric power demand is essential for stable power system operation and efficient power market operation. High accuracy of the short term load forecasting can keep the power system more stable and save the power market operation cost. We propose an optimal coefficient selection method for exponential smoothing model in short term load forecasting on weekdays. In order to find the optimal coefficient of exponential smoothing model, load forecasting errors are minimized for actual electric load demand data of last three years. The proposed method are verified by case studies for last three years from 2009 to 2011. The results of case studies show that the average percentage errors of the proposed load forecasting method are improved comparing with errors of the previous methods.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
• /
• 제28권1호
• /
• pp.50-56
• /
• 2014

Accurate midterm load forecasting is essential to preventive maintenance programs and reliable demand supply programs. This paper describes a midterm load forecasting method using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model which has been widely used in time series forecasting due to its accuracy and predictability. The various ARIMA models are examined in order to find the optimal model having minimum error of the midterm load forecasting. The proposed method is applied to forecast 104-week load pattern using the historical data in Korea. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by forecasting 104-week load from 2011 to 2012 by using historical data from 2002 to 2010.

• 대한교통학회지
• /
• 제10권3호
• /
• pp.103-122
• /
• 1992

The objective of this research is to develop a traffic accident forecasting model using traffic accident data in pusan from 1963 to 1991 and then to make short-term forecasts('93~'94) of traffic accidents in pusan. In this research, several forecasting models are developed. They include a multiple regression model, a time-series ARIMA model, a Logistic curve model, and a Gompertz curve model. Among them, the model which shows the most significance in forecasting accuracy is selected as the traffic accident forecasting model. The results of this research are as followings. 1. The existing model such as Smeed model which was developed for foreign countries shows only 47.8% explanation for traffic accident deaths in Korea. 2. A nonliner regression model ($R^2$=0.9432) and a Logistic curve model are appeared to be th gest forecasting models for the number of traffic accidents, and a Logistic curve model shows th most significance in predicting the accident deaths and injuries. 3. The forecasting figures of the traffic accidents in pusan are as followings: . In 1993, 31, 180 accidents are predicted to happen, and 430 persons are predicted to be deaths and 29, 680 persons are predicated to be injuries. . In 1994, 33, 710 accidents are predicted to happen, and 431.persons are predicted to be deat! and 30, 510 persons are predicted to be injuried. Therefore, preventive measures against traffic accidents are certainly required.

• 해운물류연구
• /
• 제35권1호
• /
• pp.93-109
• /
• 2019

본 연구는 혼합주기모형을 해운경기 예측에 활용하기 위해 기존의 비선형 장기균형관계분석에서 통계적으로 유의한 요인들을 단기모형에 적용하였다. 가장 일반적인 단일변수(univariate) AR(1) 모형과 혼합주기모형으로부터 각각 표본외 예측을 실시하여 예측오차와 비교한 결과 혼합주기모형의 예측력이 AR(1) 모형보다 향상됨을 확인하였다. 이러한 실증분석은 새로운 고차원 혼합주기모형이 해운경기변동 예측에 유용한 모형임을 의미하며, 즉, 최근 다변수 시계열 자료가 주로 장기균형관계(long-run equilibrium)를 대상으로 하고 있는데, 고차주기와 같은 정보를 분석에 포함할 경우 단기 해운경기 분석모형의 예측력이 향상될 수 있음을 의미하는 분석결과이다.

• 한국빅데이터학회지
• /
• 제3권2호
• /
• pp.59-70
• /
• 2018

특정 지역의 고객을 대상으로 열을 공급하는 지역난방 서비스의 안정적인 운영을 위해서는 단기간의 미래 수요를 보다 정확하게 예측하고, 효율적인 방법으로 생산 및 공급하는 것이 무엇보다 중요하다. 그러나 열 소비에 영향을 미치는 요소가 매우 다양할 뿐만 아니라 개별 소비자 및 지역적 특성에 따라 소비 형태가 달라지기 때문에 일반적인 상황에도 적용될 수 있는 범용적 열 수요 예측 모형을 개발하는 것은 매우 어렵다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 실시간으로 확보할 수 있는 제한적인 정보만을 바탕으로 딥러닝 기법을 활용한 수요예측 모형을 개발하고자 한다. 해당 지역의 외기온도와 날짜로만 구성된 과거 데이터를 입력 변수로 하여 텐서플로의 인공신경망을 학습시키는 방법으로 수요 예측 모형을 개발하였다. 기존의 회귀분석 기법을 통해 예측된 수요의 정확도와의 비교를 통해 제안된 모델의 성능을 평가하였다. 본 연구의 열 수요 예측 모델은 단기적 수요 예측을 위해 실시간으로 확보할 수 있는 제한적인 변수만으로도 수요 예측의 정확도를 높일 수 있음을 보였다. 나아가 개별 지역에서는 지역적 특수성을 추가하여 수요 예측 정확도를 높이는 데 활용할 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국대기환경학회지
• /
• 제22권5호
• /
• pp.614-626
• /
• 2006

Using the data of three environmental monitoring sites in Pohang area(KME112, KME113, and KME114), statistical forecasting models of the daily maximum and mean values of PM10 have been developed. Since the distributions of the daily maximum and mean PM10 values are skewed, which are similar to the Weibull distribution, these values were log-transformed to increase prediction accuracy by approximating the normal distribution. Three statistical forecasting models, which are regression, neural networks(NN) and support vector regression(SVR), were built using the log-transformed response variables, i.e., log(max(PM10)) or log(mean (PM10)). Also, the forecasting models were validated by the measure of RMSE, CORR, and IOA for the model comparison and accuracy. The improvement rate of IOA before and after the log-transformation in the daily maximum PM10 prediction was 12.7% for the regression and 22.5% for NN. In particular, 42.7% was improved for SVR method. In the case of the daily mean PM10 prediction, IOA value was improved by 5.1% for regression, 6.5% for NN, and 6.3% for SVR method. As a conclusion, SVR method was found to be performed better than the other methods in the point of the model accuracy and fitness views.