• 에너지공학
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.82-93
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• 2019

본 연구에서는 기존 열수요 예측 시스템이 공휴일과 같은 특정 일자의 열수요 예측율이 저하되는 문제점을 개선하기 위해 새로운 모델을 제안한다. 제안된 모델은 사계절 혼합형 신경망 모델(Four Season Mixed Heat Demand Prediction Neural Network Model)로서 열수요 예측율 상승하였고, 특히 예측일 유형별(평일/주말/공휴일) 열수요 예측율이 크게 증가하였다. 제안된 모델은 다음과 같은 과정을 통해 선정되었다. 특정 계절에 예측일 유형별로 고른 오차를 갖는 모델을 선정하여 전체 예측 모델을 구성한다. 학습 시간의 단축과 과도학습을 방지하기 위해 구조적으로 단순화된 서로 다른 4개의 모델을 각각 학습한 후에 다양한 조합을 통해 최적의 예측 오차를 보여주는 모델을 선정하였다. 모델의 출력은 예측일의 24시간의 시간대별 열수요이며 총합은 일일 총열수요이다. 이 예측값을 통해 효율적인 열공급 계획을 수립 할 수 있으며, 목적에 따라 출력값을 선택하여 활용할 수 있다. 제안된 모델의 일일 열 총수요 예측의 경우, 전체 MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error, 평균 절대 비율 오차)가 개별 모델의 5.3~6.1%에서 5.2%로 향상되었고, 공휴일 열수요예측은 4.9~7.9%에서 2.9%로 크게 개선되었다. 본 연구에서는 한국 지역난방공사에서 제공한 특정 아파트 단지의 34개월 분량의(2015년 1월~ 2017년10월) 시간단위 열수요 데이터를 활용하였다.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제50권11호
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• pp.769-779
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• 2017

최근 우리나라에서 빈번하게 발생되는 가뭄으로 인하여 많은 피해가 발생하고 있으며, 이에 대한 사전대응의 필요성이 커지고 있다. 가뭄에 대한 효과적인 사전대응을 위해서는 신뢰성 있는 가뭄 예측 정보가 필수적이다. 본 연구에서는 수문학적 가뭄에 대한 확률론적 예측을 수행하기 위하여 가뭄의 전이현상을 베이지안 네트워크 모형에 반영하였다. 가뭄의 전이현상을 고려한 베이지안 네트워크 기반의 가뭄 예측 모형(PBNDF)은 과거, 현재, 미래에 대한 다중 모형 앙상블 예측결과와 가뭄전이 관계를 결합하여 새로운 수문학적 가뭄 예측 결과를 생산하도록 구축되었다. 본 연구에서 PBNDF 모형은 파머수문학적 가뭄지수를 활용하여 낙동강 유역의 10개 지점을 대상으로 가뭄을 확률적으로 예측하는데 적용되었다. PBNDF 모형의 ROC 분석 결과 ROC 점수가 0.5 이상의 유의한 결과를 나타내 실제 예측 모형으로 활용가능하다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한, 기존에 개발된 모형(지속성 예측, 베이지안 네트워크 예측 모형)과 평균제곱오차의 제곱근(RMSE), 기술 점수(SS)를 활용하여 비교를 수행하였으며, 그 결과 PBNDF 모형의 RMSE는 상대적으로 낮은 값을 가지며, SS는 약 0.1~0.15 정도 높은 것으로 나타나 예측성능이 향상되었다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 무역학회지
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• 제46권6호
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• pp.191-209
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• 2021

In this paper, various time series analysis models and machine learning models are presented for long-term prediction of export growth rate, and the prediction performance is compared and reviewed by RMSE and MAE. Export growth rate is one of the major economic indicators to evaluate the economic status. And It is also used to predict economic forecast. The export growth rate may have a negative (-) value as well as a positive (+) value. Therefore, Instead of using the ReLU function, which is often used for time series prediction of deep learning models, the PReLU function, which can have a negative (-) value as an output value, was used as the activation function of deep learning models. The time series prediction performance of each model for three types of data was compared and reviewed. The forecast data of long-term prediction of export growth rate was deduced by three forecast methods such as a fixed forecast method, a recursive forecast method and a rolling forecast method. As a result of the forecast, the traditional time series analysis model, ARDL, showed excellent performance, but as the time period of learning data increases, the performance of machine learning models including LSTM was relatively improved.

• 대기
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.21-39
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• 2019

The conventional observations of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are compared in the numerical weather forecast system at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS). The weather forecasting system used in this study is consists of Korea Integrated Model (KIM) as a global numerical weather prediction model, three-dimensional variational method as a data assimilation system, and KIAPS Package for Observation Processing (KPOP) as an observation pre-processing system. As a result, the forecast performance of NCEP observation was better while the number of observation is similar to the KMA observation. In addition, the sensitivity of forecast performance was investigated for each SONDE, SURFACE and AIRCRAFT observations. The differences in AIRCRAFT observation were not sensitive to forecast, but the use of NCEP SONDE and SURFACE observations have shown better forecast performance. It is found that the NCEP observations have more wind observations of the SONDE in the upper atmosphere and more surface pressure observations of the SURFACE in the ocean. The results suggest that evenly distributed observations can lead to improved forecast performance.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제40권5호
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• pp.13-22
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• 2020

Day ahead forecast is necessary for the electricity market to stabilize the electricity penetration. Numerical weather prediction is usually employed to produce the solar irradiance as well as electric power forecast for longer than 12 hours forecast horizon. Korea Meteorological Administration operates the UM-LDAPS model to produce the 36 hours forecast of hourly total irradiance 4 times a day. This study interpolates the hourly total irradiance into 15 minute instantaneous irradiance and then compare them with observed solar irradiance at four ground stations at 1 minute resolution. Numerical weather prediction model employed here was produced at 00 UTC or 18 UTC from January to December, 2018. To compare the statistical model for the forecast horizon less than 3 hours, smart persistent model is used as a reference model. Relative root mean square error of 15 minute instantaneous irradiance are averaged over all ground stations as being 18.4% and 19.6% initialized at 18 and 00 UTC, respectively. Numerical weather prediction is better than smart persistent model at 1 hour after simulation began.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제39권3호
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• pp.215-226
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• 2006

본 연구에서는 경안천 유역에 대해 초단시간 강수예보모델인 VSRF(Very Short Range Forecast of precipitation) 모델에서 생산되는 예측강우량의 검증을 실시하고, 이를 NWSPC(National Weather Service PC) 강우-유출 모형에 적용하였다. 강수는 기상학적 검증과 수문학적 검증으로 구분하여 검증하였다. 기상학적 검증은 유역 내에 존재하는 AWS 강수량과 VSRF모델 강수량의 정성적 관계를 객관적으로 제시하였고, 수문학적 검증은 AWS 면적 가중치를 고려한 유역평균 강우량과 VSRF유역평균 강우량과의 정량적 검증결과를 제시하였다. 또한 예보모델에서 생산된 6시간 예측강수량을 NWSPC 모형에 적용해 강수예보모델의 수문연계 가능성을 검토해 본 결과 0.6 이상의 높은 상관관계를 보여 예보모델의 수자원 활용 가능성을 제시하였다.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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• 제22권11호
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• pp.1300-1312
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• 2019

BSTRACT In this paper, PM10 forecast model using DNN(Deep Neural Network) is developed for Seoul region. The previous Julian forecast model has been developed using weather and air quality data of Seoul region only. This model gives excellent results for accuracy and false alarm rates, but poor result for POD(Probability of Detection). To solve this problem, an WA(Wide Area) forecasting model that uses Chinese data is developed. The data is highly correlated with the emergence of high concentrations of PM10 in Korea. As a result, the WA model shows better accuracy, and POD improving of 3%(D+0), 21%(D+1), and 36%(D+2) for each forecast period compared with the Julian model.

• 산업공학
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.54-58
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• 2001

In this study, we suggest a multi-generation Lotka-Volterra model, which is a competition model using game theory and complex system theory. The suggested model shows many improvements to weakness of a well known Bass model to forecast new technology in competitive markets. We show that the Lotka-Volterra model has strong power to forecast mobile communication services when it is used for competition of 1st generation mobile phone service and 2nd generation phone service in Korea. We finally use the model to forecast IMT-2000 service, the 3rd generation mobile communication service.

• 대기
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.375-387
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• 2015

A Selected Multi-model CONsensus (SMCON) technique was developed and verified for the tropical cyclone track forecast in the western North Pacific. The SMCON forecasts were produced by averaging numerical model forecasts showing low 70% latest 6 h prediction errors among 21 models. In the homogeneous comparison for 54 tropical cyclones in 2013 and 2014, the SMCON improvement rate was higher than the other forecasts such as the Non-Selected Multi-model CONsensus (NSMCON) and other numerical models (i.e., GDAPS, GEPS, GFS, HWRF, ECMWF, ECMWF_H, ECMWF_EPS, JGSM, TEPS). However, the SMCON showed lower or similar improvement rate than a few forecasts including ECMWF_EPS forecasts at 96 h in 2013 and at 72 h in 2014 and the TEPS forecast at 120 h in 2013. Mean track errors of the SMCON for two year were smaller than the NSMCON and these differences were 0.4, 1.2, 5.9, 12.9, 8.2 km at 24-, 48-, 72-, 96-, 120-h respectively. The SMCON error distributions showed smaller central tendency than the NSMCON's except 72-, 96-h forecasts in 2013. Similarly, the density for smaller track errors of the SMCON was higher than the NSMCON's except at 72-, 96-h forecast in 2013 in the kernel density estimation analysis. In addition, the NSMCON has lager range of errors above the third quantile and larger standard deviation than the SMCON's at 72-, 96-h forecasts in 2013. Also, the SMCON showed smaller bias than ECMWF_H for the cross track bias. Thus, we concluded that the SMCON could provide more reliable information on the tropical cyclone track forecast by reflecting the real-time performance of the numerical models.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.779-789
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• 1999

To support daily ground-level $O_3$ forecasting in Seoul, a transfer function model(TFM) has been developed by using surface meteorological data and pollutant data(previous-day [$O_3$] and [$NO_2$]) from 1 May to 31 August in 1997. The forecast performance of the TFM was evaluated by statistical comparison with $O_3$ concentration observed during September it is shown that correlation coefficient(R), root mean squared error(RMSE), normalized mean squared error(NMSE) and mean relative error(MRE) were 0.73, 15.64, 0.006 and 0.101, respectively. The TFM appeared to have some difficulty forecasting very high $O_3$ concentrations. To compare with this model, multiple regression model(MRM) was developed for the same period. According to statistical comparison between the TFM and MRM. two models had similar predictive capability but TFM based on $O_3$ concentration higher than 60 ppb provided more accurate forecast than MRM. It was concluded that statistical model based on TFM can be useful for improving the accuracy of local $O_3$ forecast.