• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.57 no.4
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• pp.135-141
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• 2015

The objective of this study is to develop an early warning system for rainfall induced landslides. For this study, we suggested an analysis process using rainfall forecast data. 1) For a selected slope, safety factor with saturated depth was analyzed and safety factor threshold was established (warning FS threshold=1.3, alarm FS threshold=1.1). 2) If rainfall started, saturated depth and safety factor was calculated with rainfall forecast data, 3) And every hour after safety factor is compared with threshold, then warning or alarm can issued. In the future, we plan to make a early warning system combined with the in-situ inclinometer sensors.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.497-506
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• 2019

Forecasting the U.S. employment level is made using machine learning methods of the artificial neural network: deep neural network, long short term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU). We consider the big data of the federal reserve economic data among which 105 important macroeconomic variables chosen by McCracken and Ng (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 34, 574-589, 2016) are considered as predictors. We investigate the influence of the two statistical issues of the dimension reduction and time series differencing on the machine learning forecast. An out-of-sample forecast comparison shows that (LSTM, GRU) with differencing performs better than the autoregressive model and the dimension reduction improves long-term forecasts and some short-term forecasts.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartA
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• v.17A no.4
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• pp.197-202
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• 2010

The recorder at observatory can save the measured data from water gauge and rain gauge at an interval of five minutes. And then, the RTU (Remote Terminal Unit) in observatory sends the measured data in the recorder to the TM (Telemetering) in FCO (Flood Control Office) at an interval of ten minutes using VHF or satellite communication. But the transmitted data is not the stored data at the recorder, it is just data that is measured at an interval of ten minutes. In the FCO, the transmitted data is analyzed in order to forecast the flood. And also one of the most important things is the maintenance of an observatory. In this paper, an effective management system for the flood forecast is proposed. It uses the CDMA and the Blutooth technology on PDA. The proposed system is very portable, and also easily able to send the data stored at the recorder in observatory to TM in FCO without RTU. And it allows us to view remotely the data of other observatories by downloading from the FCO. Hence the system can do efficiently the maintenance of observatory without wasting manpower and time.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.360-365
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• 2003

In this paper, GMDH(Croup Method of Data Handling) algorithm which is proved to be more excellent in efficiency and accuracy of practical use of data is applied to electric power demand forecasting. As a result, it became much easier to make a choice of input data and make an exact prediction based on a lot of data. Also, we considered both economy factors(GDP, export, import, number of employee, number of economically active population and consumption of oil) and climate factors(average temperature) when forecasting. We assumed target forecast period from first quarter 1999 to first quarter 2001, and suggested more accurate forecasting method of electric power demand by using 3-step computer simulation processes(first process for selecting optimum input period, second for analyzing time relation of input data and forecast value, and third for optimizing input data) for improvement of forecast precision. The proposed method can get 0.96 percent of mean error rate at target forecast period.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2008.07a
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• pp.1689-1690
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• 2008

In this paper, The method of a temperature rasing forecast is suggested and simulated. The data used in this simulations exists in the KD Power and it was obtain by real transformer. The method of temperature forecast is based on a top oil temperature rising modeling which is proposed by the IEEE journal. We propose modifications of a modeling that accurately predicts a future transformer temperature. This Method is verified by simulations.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.851-862
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• 2006

Satellites have been valuable tool for global/regional scale atmospheric environment monitoring as well as emission source detection. In this study, we present the results of application of satellite remote sensing data for air quality forecast in Seoul metropolitan area. AOT (Aerosol Optical Thickness) data from TERRA/MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectre-radiometer) satellite were compared to ground based $PM_{10}$ mass concentrations, and used to estimate the possibility of the aerosol forecasting in Seoul metropolitan area. Although correlation coefficient (${\sim}0.37$) between MODIS AOT products and surface $PM_{10}$ concentration data was relatively low, there was good correlation between MODIS AOT and surface PM concentration under certain atmospheric conditions, which supports the feasibility of using the high-resolution MODIS AOT for air quality forecasting. The MODIS AOT data with trajectory forecasts also can provide information on aerosol concentration trend. The success rate of the 24 hour aerosol concentration trend forecast result was about 75% in this study. Finally, application of satellite remote sensing data with ground-based air quality observations could provide promising results for air quality monitoring and more exact trend forecast methodology by high resolution satellite data and verification with long term measurement dataset.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.289-299
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• 2015

The objective of the present study is to develop statistical quantitative forecast model for PM10 concentration over Seoul. We used three types of data (weather observation data in Korea, the China's weather observation data collected by GTS, and air quality numerical model forecasts). To apply the daily forecast system, hourly data are converted to daily data and then lagging was performed. The potential predictors were selected based on correlation analysis and multicollinearity check. Model validation has been performed for checking model stability. We applied two models (multiple regression model and threshold regression model) separately. The two models were compared based on the scatter plot of forecasts and observations, time series plots, RMSE, skill scores. As a result, a threshold regression model performs better than multiple regression model in high PM10 concentration cases.

• Atmosphere
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.359-370
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• 2017

In this study, the oceanic Total Precipitable Water (TPW) retrieval algorithm at 16 km altitude of High Altitude Long Endurance Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (HALE UAV) is described. Empirical equation based on Wentz method (1995) that uses the 18.7 and 22.235 GHz channels is developed using the simulated brightness temperature and SeeBor training dataset. To do radiative simulation, Satellite Data Simulator Unit (SDSU) Radiative Transfer Model (RTM) is used. The data of 60% (523) and 40% (349) in the SeeBor training dataset are used to develop and validate the TPW retrieval algorithm, respectively. The range of coefficients for the TPW retrieval at the altitude of 3~18 km with 3 km interval were 153.69~199.87 (${\alpha}$), 54.330~58.468 (${\beta}$), and 84.519~93.484 (${\gamma}$). The bias and RMSE at each altitude were found to be about $-0.81kg\;m^{-2}$ and $2.17kg\;m^{-2}$, respectively. Correlation coefficients were more than 0.9. Radiosonde observation has been generally operated over land. To validate the accuracy of the oceanic TPW retrieval algorithm, observation data from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Gisang 1 research vessel about six clear sky cases representing spring, autumn, and summer season is used. Difference between retrieved and observed TPW at 16 km altitude were in the range of $0.53{\sim}1.87kg\;m^{-2}$, which is reasonable for most applications. Difference in TPW between retrieval and observation at each altitude (3~15 km) is also presented. Differences of TPW at altitudes more than 6 km were $0.3{\sim}1.9kg\;m^{-2}$. Retrieved TPW at 3 km altitude was smaller than upper level with a difference of $-0.25{\sim}0.75kg\;m^{-2}$ compared to the observed TPW.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.76-92
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• 2018

This study aimed to establish database of rainfall inundation area by rainfall scenarios and conduct a real time prediction for urban flood mitigation. the data leaded model was developed for the mapping of inundated area with rainfall forecast data provided by korea meteorological agency. for the construction of data leaded model, 1d-2d modeling was applied to Gangnam area, where suffered from severe flooding event including september, 2010. 1d-2d analysis result agree with observed in term of flood depth. flood area and flood occurring report which maintained by NDMS(national disaster management system). The fitness ratio of the NDMS reporting point and 2D flood analysis results was revealed to be 69.5%. Flood forecast chart was created using pre-flooding database. It was analyzed to have 70.3% of fitness in case of flood forecast chart of 70mm, and 72.0% in case of 80mm flood forecast chart. Using the constructed pre-flood area database, it is possible to present flood forecast chart information with rainfall forecast, and it can be used to secure the leading time during flood predictions and warning.

• Atmosphere
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.31-46
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• 2020

The aircraft observation campaign was performed to investigate thermodynamic conditions of snowfall cloud over the East Sea of Korean peninsula from 2 February to 16 March 2018. During this period, four snowfall events occurred in the Yeongdong region and three cases were analyzed using dropsonde data. Snowfall cases were associated with the passage of southern low-pressure (maritime warm air mass) and expansion of northern high-pressure (continental polar air mass). Case 1 and Case 2a were related to low-pressure systems, and Case 2b and Case 3 were connected with high-pressure systems, respectively. And their thermodynamic properties and horizontal distribution of snowfall cloud were differed according to the influence of the synoptic condition. In Case 1 and Case 2a, atmospheric layers between sea surface and 350 hPa contained moisture more than 15 mm of TPW with multiple inversion layers detected by dropsonde data, while the vertical atmosphere of Case 2b and Case 3 were dry as TPW 5 mm or less with a single inversion inversion layer around 750~850 hPa. However, the vertical distributions of equivalent potential temperature (θ_e) were similar as moist-adiabatically neutral condition regardless of the case. But, their values below 900 hPa were about 10 K higher in Case 1 and Case 2a (285~290 K) than in Case 2b and Case 3 (275~280 K). The difference in these values is related to the characteristics of the incoming air mass and the location of the snowfall cloud.