• 제목/요약/키워드: Forecast combination

검색결과 76건 처리시간 0.025초

역세권에 연계한 주거.업무시설 시장현황 및 전망 연구 (A Study on the Market Conditions and Foreacast of housing and office market relating with Station Area Development)

  • 선상훈;박종군;김주영;김은주
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2011년도 정기총회 및 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.1766-1784
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    • 2011
  • In the past, station-area development projects were proceeded for modernizing the station facilities and improving the customer's convenience facilities by attracting private financing. But the site of station-are a development has a limitation that limits of benefits comparing with initial cost and absence of collateral by constructed the national property. For the advancing business value, merchandising facilities were adopted. There were many problems like coming the loss of city development opportunities. Now, station-area developments are considered the station and city plan. so, they are rapidly rised up the life in the station, need of making cultural space, improvement efficiency, combination and connectivity of transportation system and need of journey to Work Distance. Accordingly, this study suggests the station-area development projects by analysis of market conditions and forecast about housing and office that meets the trend of station-area development and secures feasible business value.

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Soft Set Theory Oriented Forecast Combination Method for Business Failure Prediction

  • Xu, Wei;Xiao, Zhi
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.109-128
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    • 2016
  • This paper presents a new combined forecasting method that is guided by the soft set theory (CFBSS) to predict business failures with different sample sizes. The proposed method combines both qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to improve forecasting performance. We considered an expert system (ES), logistic regression (LR), and support vector machine (SVM) as forecasting components whose weights are determined by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The proposed procedure was applied to real data sets from Chinese listed firms. For performance comparison, single ES, LR, and SVM methods, the combined forecasting method based on equal weights (CFBEWs), the combined forecasting method based on neural networks (CFBNNs), and the combined forecasting method based on rough sets and the D-S theory (CFBRSDS) were also included in the empirical experiment. CFBSS obtains the highest forecasting accuracy and the second-best forecasting stability. The empirical results demonstrate the superior forecasting performance of our method in terms of accuracy and stability.

반도체 제조공정에서의 이상수율 검출 방법론 (A New Abnormal Yields Detection Methodology in the Semiconductor Manufacturing Process)

  • 이장희
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.243-260
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    • 2008
  • To prevent low yields in the semiconductor industry is crucial to the success of that industry. However, to prevent low yields is difficult because of too many factors to affect yield variation and their complex relation in the semiconductor manufacturing process. This study presents a new efficient detection methodology for detecting abnormal yields including high and low yields, which can forecast the yield level of a production unit (namely a lot) based on yield-related feature variables' behaviors. In the methodology, we use C5.0 to identify the yield-related feature variables that are the combination of correlated process variables associated with yield, use SOM (Self-Organizing Map) neural networks to extract and classify significant patterns of past abnormal yield lots and finally use C5.0 to generate classification rules for detecting abnormal yield lot. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology using a semiconductor manufacturing company's field data.

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서포트벡터기계를 이용한 VaR 모형의 결합 (Combination of Value-at-Risk Models with Support Vector Machine)

  • 김용태;심주용;이장택;황창하
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제16권5호
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    • pp.791-801
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    • 2009
  • VaR(Value-at-Risk)는 시장위험을 측정하기 위한 중요한 도구로 사용되고 있다. 그러나 적절한 VaR 모형의 선택에는 논란의 여지가 많다. 본 논문에서는 특정 모형을 선택하여 VaR 예측값을 구하는 대신 대표적으로 많이 사용되는 두개의 VaR 모형인 역사적 모의실험과 GARCH 모형의 예측값들을 서포트벡터기계 분위수 회귀모형을 이용하여 결합하는 방법을 제안한다.

Comparison of CME mean density based on a full ice-cream cone structure and its corresponding ICME one

  • Na, Hyeonock;Moon, Yong-Jae
    • 천문학회보
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    • 제43권1호
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    • pp.54.1-54.1
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    • 2018
  • For space weather forecast, it is important to determine three-dimensional parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). To estimate three-dimensional parameters of CMEs, we have developed a full ice-cream cone model which is a combination of a symmetrical flat cone and a hemisphere. By applying this model to 12 SOHO/LASCO halo CMEs, we find that three-dimensional parameters from our method are similar to those from other stereoscopic methods. For several geoeffective CME events, we determine CME mass by applying the Solarsoft procedure (e.g., cme_mass.pro) to SOHO/LASCO C3 images. CME volumes are estimated from the full ice-cream cone structure. We derive CME mean density as a function of CME height for these CMEs, which are approximately fitted to power-law functions. We find that the ICME mean densities extrapolated from the power law functions, are correlated with their corresponding ICME ones in logarithmic scales.

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전기철도 시스템의 불평형 해석 (Analysis of Voltage Unbalance on Electric Railway System)

  • 이한민;김길동
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2005년도 학술대회 논문집 전문대학교육위원
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    • pp.184-190
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    • 2005
  • The railway characteristic, which is concerned, as most utilities is unbalance produced by the large single-phase loads. Here are two theoretical concerns associated with unbalanced loads. First, generator rotor heating resulting from unbalanced current flow, Second, there is the possibility of motor overheating in industrial plants, due to the unbalanced voltage. Therefore, the exact assessment of the voltage unbalance must be carried out preferentially as well as load forecast at stages of designing and planning for the electric railway system. This paper proposes a new analysis model to more effectively estimate voltage unbalance. Numerous distributed circuits in the electric railway system are composed by components. The entire system can be easily modeled by the combination of four-port representation of each component in parallel and/or series. Simulation results using the model are compared with field data, and it verifies the accuracy of the proposed model.

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다양한 위험상황에서의 지배적 위험태도의 파악 (Identification of Prevailing Risk Attitudes in Various Risk Situations)

  • 강태건;조성구
    • 대한산업공학회지
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    • 제25권4호
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    • pp.437-447
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    • 1999
  • Previous researches on risk attitudes or on the typical utility functions have mostly focused on how the risk attitude of decision maker varies when changes are made in one or two lottery reference points such as consequence domain and magnitude of probability under assumed risk situations represented by simple lotteries. It is, however, very difficult to forecast dominant risk attitudes under risk situations which exhibit a complex combination of many reference points. In this study, twelve risk situations which a decision maker may confront in real decision-making situations were formulated by combining in various ways three reference points, that is, magnitude of probability, consequence domain, and magnitude of gain or loss. Then through a questionnaire dominant risk attitudes under every assumed risk situation were investigated, and the general shape of utility function implied by the experimental results were derived. Results of the present study show that none of the three reference points have dominant effect over the others due to complicated interaction between them, and given the twelve risk situations the observed risk attitude widely varies from strong risk taking to strong risk aversion.

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Developing a Mathematical Model For Wheat Yield Prediction Using Landsat ETM+ Data

  • Ghar, M. Aboel;Shalaby, A.;Tateishi, R.
    • 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한원격탐사학회 2003년도 Proceedings of ACRS 2003 ISRS
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    • pp.207-209
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    • 2003
  • Quantifying crop production is one of the most important applications of remote sensing in which the temporal and up-to-date data can play very important role in avoiding any immediate insufficiency in agricultural production. A combination of climatic data and biophysical parameters derived from Landsat7 ETM+ was used to develop a mathematical model for wheat yield forecast in different geographically wide Wheat growing districts in Egypt. Leaf Area Index (LAI) and fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR) with temperature were used in the modeling. The model includes three sub-models representing the correlation between the reported yield and each individual variable. Simulation results using district statistics showed high accuracy of the derived correlations to estimate wheat production with a percentage standard error (%S.E.) of 1.5% in El- Qualyobia district and average (%S.E.) of 7% for the whole wheat areas.

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Determine the return period of flash floods by combining flash flood guidance and best fit distribution

  • Duong, Ngoc Tien;Kim, Jeong-Bae;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2020년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.362-362
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    • 2020
  • Flash flood is a dangerous weather phenomenon, affecting humans and the economy. The identification, forecast of the changing trend and its characteristics are increasingly concerned. In the world, there have many methods for determining the characteristics of flash floods, in which flash flood guidance (FFG) is a fast, effective and widely used method. The main source of flash floods is short-term rainfall. In this study, we used the data of cross-sectional measurement at the tributaries and the hourly rain data from the automatic rainfall measurement stations in the Geum river basin. Besides, we use a combination of the flash flood guidance and the best fit distribution function to estimate the repeatability of flash floods for head-water catchments in Geum river basin. In which, FFG determines the threshold of rainfall for flash floods. The study has determined the best hourly rainfall distribution function for the Geum river basin and estimated the maximum rainfall of 1hr according to the return periods.

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클라우드 컴퓨팅 환경에 적합한 그룹 키 관리 프로토콜 (Group key management protocol adopt to cloud computing environment)

  • 김용태;박길철
    • 디지털융복합연구
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.237-242
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    • 2014
  • IT 서비스 및 컴퓨팅 자원을 기반으로 인터넷 서비스를 제공하는 클라우드 컴퓨팅이 최근 큰 관심을 받고 있다. 그러나 클라우드 컴퓨팅 시스템에 저장되는 데이터는 암호화한 후 저장되어도 기밀 정보가 유출되는 문제점이 있다. 본 논문에서는 사용자가 클라우드 컴퓨팅 시스템에서 제공되는 데이터를 제 3자가 임의로 악용하는 것을 예방하기 위한 그룹 키 관리 프로토콜을 제안한다. 제안된 프로토콜은 임의의 사용자가 원격에서 클라우드 컴퓨팅 서버에 접근할 경우 서버에 존재하는 사용자 인증 데이터베이스내 사용자 정보를 일방향 해쉬 함수와 XOR 연산을 사용하여 사용자 인증을 제공받는다. 도한 사용자의 신분확인 및 권한을 연동하여 클라우드 컴퓨팅 시스템에 불법적으로 접근하는 사용자를 탐색함으로써 클라우드 컴퓨팅의 사용자 보안 문제를 해결하고 있다.