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A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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The Factors Affecting Attitudes Toward HSDPA Service and Intention to Use: A Cross-Cultural Comparison between Asia and Europe (대영향(对影响)HSDPA복무적태도화사용의도적인소적연구(服务的态度和使用意图的因素的研究): 재아주화구주지간적(在亚洲和欧洲之间的)-개과문화비교(个跨文化比较))

  • Jung, Hae-Sung;Shin, Jong-Kuk;Park, Min-Sook;Jung, Hong-Seob;Hooley, Graham;Lee, Nick;Kwak, Hyok-Jin;Kim, Sung-Hyun
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.11-23
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    • 2009
  • HSDPA (High-Speed Downlink Packet Access) is a 3.5-generation asynchronous mobile communications service based on the third generation of W-CDMA. In Korea, it is mainly provided in through videophone service. Because of the diffusion of more powerful and diversified services, along with steep advances in mobile communications technology, consumers demand a wide range of choices. However, because of the variety of technologies, which tend to overflow the market regardless of consumer preferences, consumers feel increasingly confused. Therefore, we should not adopt strategies that focus only on developing new technology on the assumption that new technologies are next-generation projects. Instead, we should understand the process by which consumers accept new forms of technology and devise schemes to lower market entry barriers through strategies that enable developers to understand and provide what consumers really want. In the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use are suggested as the most important factors affecting the attitudes of people adopting new technologies (Davis, 1989; Taylor and Todd, 1995; Venkatesh, 2000; Lee et al., 2004). Perceived usefulness is the degree to which a person believes that a particular technology will enhance his or her job performance. Perceived ease of use is the degree of subjective belief that using a particular technology will require little physical and mental effort (Davis, 1989; Morris and Dillon, 1997; Venkatesh, 2000). Perceived pleasure and perceived usefulness have been shown to clearly affect attitudes toward accepting technology (Davis et al., 1992). For example, pleasure in online shopping has been shown to positively impact consumers' attitudes toward online sellers (Eighmey and McCord, 1998; Mathwick, 2002; Jarvenpaa and Todd, 1997). The perceived risk of customers is a subjective risk, which is distinguished from an objective probabilistic risk. Perceived risk includes a psychological risk that consumers perceive when they choose brands, stores, and methods of purchase to obtain a particular item. The ability of an enterprise to revolutionize products depends on the effective acquisition of knowledge about new products (Bierly and Chakrabarti, 1996; Rothwell and Dodgson, 1991). Knowledge acquisition is the ability of a company to perceive the value of novelty and technology of the outside (Cohen and Levinthal, 1990), to evaluate the outside technology that has newly appeared (Arora and Gambaradella, 1994), and to predict the future evolution of technology accurately (Cohen and Levinthal, 1990). Consumer innovativeness is the degree to which an individual adopts innovation earlier than others in the social system (Lee, Ahn, and Ha, 2001; Gatignon and Robertson, 1985). That is, it shows how fast and how easily consumers adopt new ideas. Innovativeness is regarded as important because it has a significant effect on whether consumers adopt new products and on how fast they accept new products (Midgley and Dowling, 1978; Foxall, 1988; Hirschman, 1980). We conducted cross-national comparative research using the TAM model, which empirically verified the relationship between the factors that affect attitudes - perceived usefulness, ease of use, perceived pleasure, perceived risk, innovativeness, and perceived level of knowledge management - and attitudes toward HSDPA service. We also verified the relationship between attitudes and usage intention for the purpose of developing more effective methods of management for HSDPA service providers. For this research, 346 questionnaires were distributed among 350 students in the Republic of Korea. Because 26 of the returned questionnaires were inconsistent or had missing data, 320 questionnaires were used in the hypothesis tests. In UK, 192 of the total 200 questionnaires were retrieved, and two incomplete ones were discarded, bringing the total to 190 questionnaires used for statistical analysis. The results of the overall model analysis are as follows: Republic of Korea x2=333.27(p=0.0), NFI=0.88, NNFI=0.88, CFI=0.91, IFI=0.91, RMR=0.054, GFI=0.90, AGFI=0.84, UK x2=176.57(p=0.0), NFI=0.88, NNFI=0.90, CFI=0.93, IFI=0.93, RMR=0.062, GFI=0.90, AGFI=0.84. From the results of the hypothesis tests of Korean consumers about the relationship between factors that affect intention to use HSDPA services and attitudes, we can conclude that perceived usefulness, ease of use, pleasure, a high level of knowledge management, and innovativeness promote positive attitudes toward HSDPA mobile phones. However, ease of use and perceived pleasure did not have a direct effect on intention to use HSDPA service. This may have resulted from the fact that the use of video phones is not necessary for everyday life yet. Moreover, it has been shown that attitudes toward HSDPA video phones are directly correlated with usage intention, which means that perceived usefulness, ease of use, pleasure, a high level of knowledge management, and innovativeness. These relationships form the basis of the intention to buy, contributing to a situation in which consumers decide to choose carefully. A summary of the results of the hypothesis tests of European consumers revealed that perceived usefulness, pleasure, risk, and the level of knowledge management are factors that affect the formation of attitudes, while ease of use and innovativeness do not have an effect on attitudes. In particular, with regard to the effect value, perceived usefulness has the largest effect on attitudes, followed by pleasure and knowledge management. On the contrary, perceived risk has a smaller effect on attitudes. In the Asian model, ease of use and perceived pleasure were found not to have a direct effect on intention to use. However, because attitudes generally affect the intention to use, perceived usefulness, pleasure, risk, and knowledge management may be considered key factors in attitude development from which usage intention arises. In conclusion, perceived usefulness, pleasure, and the level of knowledge management have an effect on attitude formation in both Asian and European consumers, and such attitudes shape these consumers' intention to use. Furthermore, the hypotheses that ease of use and perceived pleasure affect usage intention are rejected. However, ease of use, perceived risk, and innovativeness showed different results. Perceived risk had no effect on attitude formation among Asians, while ease of use and innovativeness had no effect on attitudes among Europeans.

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The Impact of e-Store Personality on e-Store Loyalty-Focus on the Mediating Role of Identification, Trust, and Engagement (온라인에서 점포 개성이 점포 충성도에 미치는 영향-동일시, 신뢰, 인게이지먼트의 매개 역할을 중심으로)

  • Park, Hyo-Hyun;Jung, Gang-Ok;Lee, Seung-Chang
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.57-94
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    • 2011
  • Nowadays, it is common that most consumers are purchasing goods in e-stores. The e-stores eager to attract, revisit, retain, and finally convert them into loyal customers. The e-store marketers have planned and executed numerous marketing efforts. As one of the marketing activities, e-store managers attempt to build web sites that meet customers' functional and psychological needs. A wide array of studies has been done to identify factors that could affect customers' response of web sites. Majority of studies were conducted to verify technology-related and functional variables of the website which facilitate transactions and enhance customer responses such as purchase intention and website loyalty. However, there has been little research on the external cues of website and psychological variables of consumer that could have positive influences on customer response. The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of e-store personality on e-store loyalty through mediating variables such as e-store identification, e-store trust, and e-store engagement. The authors of this study develop the model and set up the six main hypotheses and a set of sub-hypotheses based on a literature review, shown in

    . This model is composed of four paths such as dimensions of e-store personality${\rightarrow}$e-store identification, e-store identification${\rightarrow}$e-store loyalty, e-store identification ${\rightarrow}$e-store trust${\rightarrow}$e-store loyalty, and e-store identification${\rightarrow}$e-store engagement${\rightarrow}$e-store loyalty. II. Research Method Ladies under 30s were the respondents of this survey. Data were collected from January 20th to February 26th in 2010. A total of 200 questionnaires were distributed and 169 respondents were analysed finally to test hypotheses because 31 questionnaires had incorrect or missing responses. SPSS 12.0 and LISREL 7.0 program were used to test frequency, reliability, factor, and structural equation modeling analysis. III. Result and Conclusion According to results from factor analysis, eigen value was over 1.0 and items which were below 0.6 were deleted. Consequently, 9 factors(% of total variance is 72.011%) were searched. All Cronbach's ${\alpha}$ values are over the recommended level(${\alpha}$ > 0.7). The overall fit indices are acceptable such as ${\chi}^2$=2028.36(p=0.00), GFI=0.87, AGFI=0.82, CFI=0.81, IFI=0.92, RMR=0.075. All factor loadings were over the recommended level. As the result of discriminant validity check with chi-square difference test between paired constructs, each construct has good discriminant validity. The overall fit indices of final model are acceptable such as ${\chi}^2$=340.73(df=36, p=0.00), GFI=0.92, AGFI=0.81, CFI=0.91, IFI=0.91, RMR=0.085. As test results, 5 out of 6 hypotheses are supported because there are statistically significant casual relationships in structural equation model, shown in . First of all, hypothesis 1 is partially supported because sub-hypothesis 1-1 and 1-2 are supported, whereas sub-hypothesis 1-3, 1-4, and 1-5 are rejected. Specifically, it reveals that warmth and sophistication dimensions in e-store personality have positive influence on e-store identification, however, activity, progressiveness, and strictness does not have any significant relationship on e-store identification. Secondly, hypothesis 2 was supported. Therefore, it can be said that e-store identification has a positive impact on e-store trust. Thirdly, hypothesis 3 is also supported. Hence, there is a positive relationship between e-store identification and e-store engagement. Fourthly, hypothesis 4 is supported too. e-store identification has a positive influence on e-store loyalty. Fifthly, hypothesis 5 is also accepted. This indicates that e-store trust is a precedent variable which positively affects e-store loyalty. Lastly, it reveals that e-store engagement has a positive impact on e-store loyalty. Therefore, hypothesis 6 is supported. The findings of the study imply that some dimensions of e-store personality have a positive influence on e-store identification, and that e-store identification has direct and indirect influence on e-store loyalty through e-store trust and e-store engagement positively. These results also suggest that the e-store identification in e-store personality is a precedent variable which positively affects e-store loyalty directly and indirectly through e-store trust and engagement as a mediating variable. Therefore, e-store marketers need to implement website strategy based on e-store personality, e-store identification, e-store trust, and e-store engagement to meet customers' psychological needs and enhance e-store loyalty. Finally, the limitations and future study directions based on this study are discussed.

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  • The Planting and Occurrence Status of Exotic Plants of the Folk Village as National Cultural Heritage - Focus in Hahoe.Yangdong.Hangae Villages - (국가지정 문화재 민속마을의 외래식물 식재 및 발생현황 - 하회.양동.한개마을을 대상으로 -)

    • Rho, Jae-Hyun;Oh, Hyun-Kyung;Han, Yun-Hee;Park, Kyung-Uk;Byun, Moo-Sup;Huh, Joon;Choi, Yung-Hyun;Shin, Sang-Sup;Lee, Hyun-Woo;Kim, Hyo-Jung
      • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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      • v.31 no.2
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      • pp.1-19
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      • 2013
    • This study was carried out to analyze distribution situation of alien plants and to propose management plan in the 3 Folk village in Gyeongsangbuk-do which is Cultural property designated by the State; Hahoe, Yangdong and Hangae. This research is for improve of sincerity of historical site and provide basic information which use about administration of preservation. The results are as follows. 1. Overall flora and alien plants appearance The total flora in the 3 folk villages were listed total 752 taxa including 127 families, 430 genera, 614 species, 5 subspecies, 100 varieties and 33 forms. Among them, woody plants take 263 taxa(35.0%) and herbaceous plants take 489 taxa (65.0%). Flora in the Hahoe, Yangdong and Hangae village were total 534, 479 taxa and 408 taxa and exotic plant index was 30.1%, 38.2% and 37.0% respectively. In types of exotic plants, ornamental exotic plants were 135 taxa, deciduous exotic plants were 21 taxa, cultivating exotic plants were 64 taxa, and naturalized exotic plants were 80 taxa and those result lead that the ornamental exotic plants is the highest ratio. According to the villages, Hahoe village had 161 taxa(30.1%), Yangdong Village had 183 taxa(38.2%), and Hangae village had 151 taxa(37.0%) that Yangdong village showed the most number of exotic plants. 2. Planting of landscape exotic plants in the unit cultural assets Meanwhile, Ornamental exotic plants in old house's gardens in Andong Hahoe village which is designated as a unit assets, those are total 30 taxa; followed by the Okyeon house(8 taxa) is highest and the Yangjindang(7), the Hadong house(6) and the Chunghyodang(5). Magnolia denudata appears the most as for 4 times and Campsis grandiflora etc. each took 2 times. Based on the Yangdong village, Gyeongju, that are found total 51 taxa; followed by the Dugok house(16 taxa) the Sujoldang(14), the Mucheondang(13), and the Sangchunheon (12). High appearance rate of ornamental exotic plants were Viburnum opulus for. hydrangeoides, Lycoris squamigera, Caragagna sinica and Magnolia denudata etc. Based on the Hangae village, Seongju, that are designated total 62 taxa; followed by the Jinsa house(35 taxa), the Gyori house(25), the Hanju head family house(20), and the Hahoe house(16). Taxa with high appearance rates were Caragana sinica, Juniperus chinensis var. horizontalis, Magnolia denudata, Viburnum opulus for. hydrangeoides, Chaenomeles speciosa etc. 3. Problems of exotic plant landscapes in the outer spaces of the folk villages Problems of exotic plant landscapes in the outer spaces of the Hahoe village are as follows. In lower of the Mansongjeong forest, Ambrosia artemisifolia, which are ecosystem disturbance plants designated by the Ministry of Environment, live with high dominance value. This should be have a remove with Sicyos angulatus immediately. In the Nakdong river bed around the Mansongjeong forest is covered with a riparian vegetation forest belt of Robinia pseudoacacia L. forest, Populus nigra var. italic community, and Populus x tomentiglandulosa community colony. Based on the Yangdong village, the planted or naturally distributed Ailanthus altissima colony, sporadically distributed Robinia pseudoacacia as well as Amorpha fruticosa are detected all over the village and ecotones. Based on the Hangae village, Ailanthus altissima and Robinia pseudoacacia are sporadically distributed around the village and there is a sign of spreading. similarity of exotic plantsis 47.0% to 48.6% and a reason why this happened is all of research site in Gyeongsanbuk-do and that is why growth norm of plant is similar, exotic plant which is sales for ornamental and it infer to require related countermeasure of each villages and joint related countermeasure.

    Medical Information Dynamic Access System in Smart Mobile Environments (스마트 모바일 환경에서 의료정보 동적접근 시스템)

    • Jeong, Chang Won;Kim, Woo Hong;Yoon, Kwon Ha;Joo, Su Chong
      • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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      • v.16 no.1
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      • pp.47-55
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      • 2015
    • Recently, the environment of a hospital information system is a trend to combine various SMART technologies. Accordingly, various smart devices, such as a smart phone, Tablet PC is utilized in the medical information system. Also, these environments consist of various applications executing on heterogeneous sensors, devices, systems and networks. In these hospital information system environment, applying a security service by traditional access control method cause a problems. Most of the existing security system uses the access control list structure. It is only permitted access defined by an access control matrix such as client name, service object method name. The major problem with the static approach cannot quickly adapt to changed situations. Hence, we needs to new security mechanisms which provides more flexible and can be easily adapted to various environments with very different security requirements. In addition, for addressing the changing of service medical treatment of the patient, the researching is needed. In this paper, we suggest a dynamic approach to medical information systems in smart mobile environments. We focus on how to access medical information systems according to dynamic access control methods based on the existence of the hospital's information system environments. The physical environments consist of a mobile x-ray imaging devices, dedicated mobile/general smart devices, PACS, EMR server and authorization server. The software environment was developed based on the .Net Framework for synchronization and monitoring services based on mobile X-ray imaging equipment Windows7 OS. And dedicated a smart device application, we implemented a dynamic access services through JSP and Java SDK is based on the Android OS. PACS and mobile X-ray image devices in hospital, medical information between the dedicated smart devices are based on the DICOM medical image standard information. In addition, EMR information is based on H7. In order to providing dynamic access control service, we classify the context of the patients according to conditions of bio-information such as oxygen saturation, heart rate, BP and body temperature etc. It shows event trace diagrams which divided into two parts like general situation, emergency situation. And, we designed the dynamic approach of the medical care information by authentication method. The authentication Information are contained ID/PWD, the roles, position and working hours, emergency certification codes for emergency patients. General situations of dynamic access control method may have access to medical information by the value of the authentication information. In the case of an emergency, was to have access to medical information by an emergency code, without the authentication information. And, we constructed the medical information integration database scheme that is consist medical information, patient, medical staff and medical image information according to medical information standards.y Finally, we show the usefulness of the dynamic access application service based on the smart devices for execution results of the proposed system according to patient contexts such as general and emergency situation. Especially, the proposed systems are providing effective medical information services with smart devices in emergency situation by dynamic access control methods. As results, we expect the proposed systems to be useful for u-hospital information systems and services.

    Analysis of Football Fans' Uniform Consumption: Before and After Son Heung-Min's Transfer to Tottenham Hotspur FC (국내 프로축구 팬들의 유니폼 소비 분석: 손흥민의 토트넘 홋스퍼 FC 이적 전후 비교)

    • Choi, Yeong-Hyeon;Lee, Kyu-Hye
      • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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      • v.26 no.3
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      • pp.91-108
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      • 2020
    • Korea's famous soccer players are steadily performing well in international leagues, which led to higher interests of Korean fans in the international leagues. Reflecting the growing social phenomenon of rising interests on international leagues by Korean fans, the study examined the overall consumer perception in the consumption of uniform by domestic soccer fans and compared the changes in perception following the transfers of the players. Among others, the paper examined the consumer perception and purchase factors of soccer fans shown in social media, focusing on periods before and after the recruitment of Heung-Min Son to English Premier League's Tottenham Football Club. To this end, the EPL uniform is the collection keyword the paper utilized and collected consumer postings from domestic website and social media via Python 3.7, and analyzed them using Ucinet 6, NodeXL 1.0.1, and SPSS 25.0 programs. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. First, the uniform of the club that consistently topped the league, has been gaining attention as a popular uniform, and the players' performance, and the players' position have been identified as key factors in the purchase and search of professional football uniforms. In the case of the club, the actual ranking and whether the league won are shown to be important factors in the purchase and search of professional soccer uniforms. The club's emblem and the sponsor logo that will be attached to the uniform are also factors of interest to consumers. In addition, in the decision making process of purchase of a uniform by professional soccer fan, uniform's form, marking, authenticity, and sponsors are found to be more important than price, design, size, and logo. The official online store has emerged as a major purchasing channel, followed by gifts for friends or requests from acquaintances when someone travels to the United Kingdom. Second, a classification of key control categories through the convergence of iteration correlation analysis and Clauset-Newman-Moore clustering algorithm shows differences in the classification of individual groups, but groups that include the EPL's club and player keywords are identified as the key topics in relation to professional football uniforms. Third, between 2002 and 2006, the central theme for professional football uniforms was World Cup and English Premier League, but from 2012 to 2015, the focus has shifted to more interest of domestic and international players in the English Premier League. The subject has changed to the uniform itself from this time on. In this context, the paper can confirm that the major issues regarding the uniforms of professional soccer players have changed since Ji-Sung Park's transfer to Manchester United, and Sung-Yong Ki, Chung-Yong Lee, and Heung-Min Son's good performances in these leagues. The paper also identified that the uniforms of the clubs to which the players have transferred to are of interest. Fourth, both male and female consumers are showing increasing interest in Son's league, the English Premier League, which Tottenham FC belongs to. In particular, the increasing interest in Son has shown a tendency to increase interest in football uniforms for female consumers. This study presents a variety of researches on sports consumption and has value as a consumer study by identifying unique consumption patterns. It is meaningful in that the accuracy of the interpretation has been enhanced by using a cluster analysis via convergence of iteration correlation analysis and Clauset-Newman-Moore clustering algorithm to identify the main topics. Based on the results of this study, the clubs will be able to maximize its profits and maintain good relationships with fans by identifying key drivers of consumer awareness and purchasing for professional soccer fans and establishing an effective marketing strategy.

    Development of a Traffic Accident Prediction Model and Determination of the Risk Level at Signalized Intersection (신호교차로에서의 사고예측모형개발 및 위험수준결정 연구)

    • 홍정열;도철웅
      • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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      • v.20 no.7
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      • pp.155-166
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      • 2002
    • Since 1990s. there has been an increasing number of traffic accidents at intersection. which requires more urgent measures to insure safety on intersection. This study set out to analyze the road conditions, traffic conditions and traffic operation conditions on signalized intersection. to identify the elements that would impose obstructions in safety, and to develop a traffic accident prediction model to evaluate the safety of an intersection using the cop relation between the elements and an accident. In addition, the focus was made on suggesting appropriate traffic safety policies by dealing with the danger elements in advance and on enhancing the safety on the intersection in developing a traffic accident prediction model fir a signalized intersection. The data for the study was collected at an intersection located in Wonju city from January to December 2001. It consisted of the number of accidents, the road conditions, the traffic conditions, and the traffic operation conditions at the intersection. The collected data was first statistically analyzed and then the results identified the elements that had close correlations with accidents. They included the area pattern, the use of land, the bus stopping activities, the parking and stopping activities on the road, the total volume, the turning volume, the number of lanes, the width of the road, the intersection area, the cycle, the sight distance, and the turning radius. These elements were used in the second correlation analysis. The significant level was 95% or higher in all of them. There were few correlations between independent variables. The variables that affected the accident rate were the number of lanes, the turning radius, the sight distance and the cycle, which were used to develop a traffic accident prediction model formula considering their distribution. The model formula was compared with a general linear regression model in accuracy. In addition, the statistics of domestic accidents were investigated to analyze the distribution of the accidents and to classify intersections according to the risk level. Finally, the results were applied to the Spearman-rank correlation coefficient to see if the model was appropriate. As a result, the coefficient of determination was highly significant with the value of 0.985 and the ranks among the intersections according to the risk level were appropriate too. The actual number of accidents and the predicted ones were compared in terms of the risk level and they were about the same in the risk level for 80% of the intersections.

    Effects of Customers' Relationship Networks on Organizational Performance: Focusing on Facebook Fan Page (고객 간 관계 네트워크가 조직성과에 미치는 영향: 페이스북 기업 팬페이지를 중심으로)

    • Jeon, Su-Hyeon;Kwahk, Kee-Young
      • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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      • v.22 no.2
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      • pp.57-79
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      • 2016
    • It is a rising trend that the number of users using one of the social media channels, the Social Network Service, so called the SNS, is getting increased. As per to this social trend, more companies have interest in this networking platform and start to invest their funds in it. It has received much attention as a tool spreading and expanding the message that a company wants to deliver to its customers and has been recognized as an important channel in terms of the relationship marketing with them. The environment of media that is radically changing these days makes possible for companies to approach their customers in various ways. Particularly, the social network service, which has been developed rapidly, provides the environment that customers can freely talk about products. For companies, it also works as a channel that gives customized information to customers. To succeed in the online environment, companies need to not only build the relationship between companies and customers but focus on the relationship between customers as well. In response to the online environment with the continuous development of technology, companies have tirelessly made the novel marketing strategy. Especially, as the one-to-one marketing to customers become available, it is more important for companies to maintain the relationship marketing with their customers. Among many SNS, Facebook, which many companies use as a communication channel, provides a fan page service for each company that supports its business. Facebook fan page is the platform that the event, information and announcement can be shared with customers using texts, videos, and pictures. Companies open their own fan pages in order to inform their companies and businesses. Such page functions as the websites of companies and has a characteristic of their brand communities such as blogs as well. As Facebook has become the major communication medium with customers, companies recognize its importance as the effective marketing channel, but they still need to investigate their business performances by using Facebook. Although there are infinite potentials in Facebook fan page that even has a function as a community between users, which other platforms do not, it is incomplete to regard companies' Facebook fan pages as communities and analyze them. In this study, it explores the relationship among customers through the network of the Facebook fan page users. The previous studies on a company's Facebook fan page were focused on finding out the effective operational direction by analyzing the use state of the company. However, in this study, it draws out the structural variable of the network, which customer committment can be measured by applying the social network analysis methodology and investigates the influence of the structural characteristics of network on the business performance of companies in an empirical way. Through each company's Facebook fan page, the network of users who engaged in the communication with each company is exploited and it is the one-mode undirected binary network that respectively regards users and the relationship of them in terms of their marketing activities as the node and link. In this network, it draws out the structural variable of network that can explain the customer commitment, who pressed "like," made comments and shared the Facebook marketing message, of each company by calculating density, global clustering coefficient, mean geodesic distance, diameter. By exploiting companies' historical performance such as net income and Tobin's Q indicator as the result variables, this study investigates influence on companies' business performances. For this purpose, it collects the network data on the subjects of 54 companies among KOSPI-listed companies, which have posted more than 100 articles on their Facebook fan pages during the data collection period. Then it draws out the network indicator of each company. The indicator related to companies' performances is calculated, based on the posted value on DART website of the Financial Supervisory Service. From the academic perspective, this study suggests a new approach through the social network analysis methodology to researchers who attempt to study the business-purpose utilization of the social media channel. From the practical perspective, this study proposes the more substantive marketing performance measurements to companies performing marketing activities through the social media and it is expected that it will bring a foundation of establishing smart business strategies by using the network indicators.

    Chinese Communist Party's Management of Records & Archives during the Chinese Revolution Period (혁명시기 중국공산당의 문서당안관리)

    • Lee, Won-Kyu
      • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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      • no.22
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      • pp.157-199
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      • 2009
    • The organization for managing records and archives did not emerge together with the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. Such management became active with the establishment of the Department of Documents (文書科) and its affiliated offices overseeing reading and safekeeping of official papers, after the formation of the Central Secretariat(中央秘書處) in 1926. Improving the work of the Secretariat's organization became the focus of critical discussions in the early 1930s. The main criticism was that the Secretariat had failed to be cognizant of its political role and degenerated into a mere "functional organization." The solution to this was the "politicization of the Secretariat's work." Moreover, influenced by the "Rectification Movement" in the 1940s, the party emphasized the responsibility of the Resources Department (材料科) that extended beyond managing documents to collecting, organizing and providing various kinds of important information data. In the mean time, maintaining security with regard to composing documents continued to be emphasized through such methods as using different names for figures and organizations or employing special inks for document production. In addition, communications between the central political organs and regional offices were emphasized through regular reports on work activities and situations of the local areas. The General Secretary not only composed the drafts of the major official documents but also handled the reading and examination of all documents, and thus played a central role in record processing. The records, called archives after undergoing document processing, were placed in safekeeping. This function was handled by the "Document Safekeeping Office(文件保管處)" of the Central Secretariat's Department of Documents. Although the Document Safekeeping Office, also called the "Central Repository(中央文庫)", could no longer accept, beginning in the early 1930s, additional archive transfers, the Resources Department continued to strengthen throughout the 1940s its role of safekeeping and providing documents and publication materials. In particular, collections of materials for research and study were carried out, and with the recovery of regions which had been under the Japanese rule, massive amounts of archive and document materials were collected. After being stipulated by rules in 1931, the archive classification and cataloguing methods became actively systematized, especially in the 1940s. Basically, "subject" classification methods and fundamental cataloguing techniques were adopted. The principle of assuming "importance" and "confidentiality" as the criteria of management emerged from a relatively early period, but the concept or process of evaluation that differentiated preservation and discarding of documents was not clear. While implementing a system of secure management and restricted access for confidential information, the critical view on providing use of archive materials was very strong, as can be seen in the slogan, "the unification of preservation and use." Even during the revolutionary movement and wars, the Chinese Communist Party continued their efforts to strengthen management and preservation of records & archives. The results were not always desirable nor were there any reasons for such experiences to lead to stable development. The historical conditions in which the Chinese Communist Party found itself probably made it inevitable. The most pronounced characteristics of this process can be found in the fact that they not only pursued efficiency of records & archives management at the functional level but, while strengthening their self-awareness of the political significance impacting the Chinese Communist Party's revolution movement, they also paid attention to the value possessed by archive materials as actual evidence for revolutionary policy research and as historical evidence of the Chinese Communist Party.

    A Deep Learning Based Approach to Recognizing Accompanying Status of Smartphone Users Using Multimodal Data (스마트폰 다종 데이터를 활용한 딥러닝 기반의 사용자 동행 상태 인식)

    • Kim, Kilho;Choi, Sangwoo;Chae, Moon-jung;Park, Heewoong;Lee, Jaehong;Park, Jonghun
      • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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      • v.25 no.1
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      • pp.163-177
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      • 2019
    • As smartphones are getting widely used, human activity recognition (HAR) tasks for recognizing personal activities of smartphone users with multimodal data have been actively studied recently. The research area is expanding from the recognition of the simple body movement of an individual user to the recognition of low-level behavior and high-level behavior. However, HAR tasks for recognizing interaction behavior with other people, such as whether the user is accompanying or communicating with someone else, have gotten less attention so far. And previous research for recognizing interaction behavior has usually depended on audio, Bluetooth, and Wi-Fi sensors, which are vulnerable to privacy issues and require much time to collect enough data. Whereas physical sensors including accelerometer, magnetic field and gyroscope sensors are less vulnerable to privacy issues and can collect a large amount of data within a short time. In this paper, a method for detecting accompanying status based on deep learning model by only using multimodal physical sensor data, such as an accelerometer, magnetic field and gyroscope, was proposed. The accompanying status was defined as a redefinition of a part of the user interaction behavior, including whether the user is accompanying with an acquaintance at a close distance and the user is actively communicating with the acquaintance. A framework based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent networks for classifying accompanying and conversation was proposed. First, a data preprocessing method which consists of time synchronization of multimodal data from different physical sensors, data normalization and sequence data generation was introduced. We applied the nearest interpolation to synchronize the time of collected data from different sensors. Normalization was performed for each x, y, z axis value of the sensor data, and the sequence data was generated according to the sliding window method. Then, the sequence data became the input for CNN, where feature maps representing local dependencies of the original sequence are extracted. The CNN consisted of 3 convolutional layers and did not have a pooling layer to maintain the temporal information of the sequence data. Next, LSTM recurrent networks received the feature maps, learned long-term dependencies from them and extracted features. The LSTM recurrent networks consisted of two layers, each with 128 cells. Finally, the extracted features were used for classification by softmax classifier. The loss function of the model was cross entropy function and the weights of the model were randomly initialized on a normal distribution with an average of 0 and a standard deviation of 0.1. The model was trained using adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) optimization algorithm and the mini batch size was set to 128. We applied dropout to input values of the LSTM recurrent networks to prevent overfitting. The initial learning rate was set to 0.001, and it decreased exponentially by 0.99 at the end of each epoch training. An Android smartphone application was developed and released to collect data. We collected smartphone data for a total of 18 subjects. Using the data, the model classified accompanying and conversation by 98.74% and 98.83% accuracy each. Both the F1 score and accuracy of the model were higher than the F1 score and accuracy of the majority vote classifier, support vector machine, and deep recurrent neural network. In the future research, we will focus on more rigorous multimodal sensor data synchronization methods that minimize the time stamp differences. In addition, we will further study transfer learning method that enables transfer of trained models tailored to the training data to the evaluation data that follows a different distribution. It is expected that a model capable of exhibiting robust recognition performance against changes in data that is not considered in the model learning stage will be obtained.


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