Predicting corporate failure has been an important topic in accounting and finance. The costs associated with bankruptcy are high, so the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction is greatly important for financial institutions. Lots of researchers have dealt with the topic associated with bankruptcy prediction in the past three decades. The current research attempts to use ensemble models for improving the performance of bankruptcy prediction. Ensemble classification is to combine individually trained classifiers in order to gain more accurate prediction than individual models. Ensemble techniques are shown to be very useful for improving the generalization ability of the classifier. Bagging is the most commonly used methods for constructing ensemble classifiers. In bagging, the different training data subsets are randomly drawn with replacement from the original training dataset. Base classifiers are trained on the different bootstrap samples. Instance selection is to select critical instances while deleting and removing irrelevant and harmful instances from the original set. Instance selection and bagging are quite well known in data mining. However, few studies have dealt with the integration of instance selection and bagging. This study proposes an improved bagging ensemble based on instance selection using genetic algorithms (GA) for improving the performance of SVM. GA is an efficient optimization procedure based on the theory of natural selection and evolution. GA uses the idea of survival of the fittest by progressively accepting better solutions to the problems. GA searches by maintaining a population of solutions from which better solutions are created rather than making incremental changes to a single solution to the problem. The initial solution population is generated randomly and evolves into the next generation by genetic operators such as selection, crossover and mutation. The solutions coded by strings are evaluated by the fitness function. The proposed model consists of two phases: GA based Instance Selection and Instance based Bagging. In the first phase, GA is used to select optimal instance subset that is used as input data of bagging model. In this study, the chromosome is encoded as a form of binary string for the instance subset. In this phase, the population size was set to 100 while maximum number of generations was set to 150. We set the crossover rate and mutation rate to 0.7 and 0.1 respectively. We used the prediction accuracy of model as the fitness function of GA. SVM model is trained on training data set using the selected instance subset. The prediction accuracy of SVM model over test data set is used as fitness value in order to avoid overfitting. In the second phase, we used the optimal instance subset selected in the first phase as input data of bagging model. We used SVM model as base classifier for bagging ensemble. The majority voting scheme was used as a combining method in this study. This study applies the proposed model to the bankruptcy prediction problem using a real data set from Korean companies. The research data used in this study contains 1832 externally non-audited firms which filed for bankruptcy (916 cases) and non-bankruptcy (916 cases). Financial ratios categorized as stability, profitability, growth, activity and cash flow were investigated through literature review and basic statistical methods and we selected 8 financial ratios as the final input variables. We separated the whole data into three subsets as training, test and validation data set. In this study, we compared the proposed model with several comparative models including the simple individual SVM model, the simple bagging model and the instance selection based SVM model. The McNemar tests were used to examine whether the proposed model significantly outperforms the other models. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the other models.
The witches' broom disease of Paulownia tomentosa (Thunb.) Steud with which mycoplasmalike organisms are associated is widespread throughout Korea and poses serious threat to the cultivation of paulownia. Attempt was made to investigate the feasibility of field control of the disease with oxytetracycline hydrochloride (OTC). A total of 84 paulownia trees (6 year-old, DBH: 10-15cm) exhibiting severe symptoms of witches' broom were selected and treated during March to September. Solution of 1-10g of OTC dissolved in 0.12.0 of water was transfused into infected trees with gravity flow method from a dark-brown colored plastic reservoir (11 volume) through plastic tubes (1.2m long) connected to 2-4 holes (5 mm in diameter and 4-5cm in depth) bored in the basal part of the tree trunks (Fig. 1 and 2). Of 60 diseased paulownia trees injected with 2g of OTC in 0.1-2.0l of water during May to September, 1979, 58 trees resulted in complete remission of symptom development and resumption of healthy new growth at least up to September, 1980 when the last observation of the effect of OTC treatment for this experiment was made. The rest of two trees were dead probably due to too severe infection. Of 24 paulownia trees treated in March and April, 1979 complete remission of symptom development was obtained with 8 trees, and nine trees were partially prevented from symptom development in the following season. The remaining 7 trees were dead due to failure in uptake of OTC and partly because the trees were in too far advanced stage of infection. Application of highly concentrated solution of 2g of OTC dissolved in 0.1-0.2l of water per tree was just as effective as the 2g/1-2l treatment. Injection of 2g/1-2l required 3-4 days while treatment of 2g/0.1-0.2l reduced the time for injecting one tree down to less than 24 hrs. The result of this experiment demonstrates that basal trunk injection of 2g OTC/0.1-0.2l/tree is feasible for field control of paulownia witches' broom, provided that tree injection is performed in actively growing season (May-September) and at the initial stage of disease development.
In many solute transport studies, either flux or resident concentration has been used. Choice of the concentration mode was dependent on the monitoring device in solute displacement experiments. It has been accepted that no priority exists in the selection of concentration mode in the study of solute transport. It would be questionable, however, to accept the equivalency in the solute transport parameters between flux and resident concentrations in structured soils exhibiting preferential movement of solute. In this study, we investigate how they differ in the monitored breakthrough curves (BTCs) and transport parameters for a given boundary and flow condition by performing solute displacement experiments on a number of undisturbed soil columns. Both flux and resident concentrations have been simultaneously obtained by monitoring the effluent and resistance of the horizontally-positioned TDR probes. Two different solute transport models namely, convection-dispersion equation (CDE) and convective lognormal transfer function (CLT) models, were fitted to the observed breakthrough data in order to quantify the difference between two concentration modes. The study reveals that soil columns having relatively high flux densities exhibited great differences in the degree of peak concentration and travel time of peak between flux and resident concentrations. The peak concentration in flux mode was several times higher than that in resident one. Accordingly, the estimated parameters of flux mode differed greatly from those of resident mode and the difference was more pronounced in CDE than CLT model. Especially in CDE model, the parameters of flux mode were much higher than those of resident mode. This was mainly due to the bypassing of solute through soil macropores and failure of the equilibrium CDE model to adequate description of solute transport in studied soils. In the domain of the relationship between the ratio of hydrodynamic dispersion to molecular diffusion and the peclet number, both concentrations fall on a zone of predominant mechanical dispersion. However, it appears that more molecular diffusion contributes to the solute spreading in the matrix region than the macropore region due to the nonliearity present in the pore water velocity and dispersion coefficient relationship.
This study addresses the preliminary results of rock slope stability analyses including hazard assessments for slope failure conducted on the selected sections of rural road cut slope which are about 4 km long. The study area is located in the Mt. Chuntae northeast of Busan and mainly composed of Cretaceous rhyolitic ash-flow tuff', fallout tuff, rhyolitc and andesite. The volcanic rock mass in the area has a number of discontinuities that produce a potentially unstable slope, as the present cut slope is more than 70 degrees in most of the slope sections. Discontinuity geometry data were collected at selected 8 scanline sections and analyzed to estimate important discontinuity geometry parameters to perform rock slope kinematic and block theory analyses. Kinematic analysis for plane sliding has resulted in maximum safe slope angles greater than $65^{\circ}$ for most of the discontinuities. For most of the wedges, maximum safe cut slope angles greater than $45^{\circ}$ were obtained. Maximum safe slope angles greater than 80" were obtained fur most of the discontinuities in the toppling case. The block theory analysis resulted in the identification of potential key blocks (type II) in the SL4, SL5, SL6 and SL8 sections. The chance of sliding taking place through a type ll block under a combined gravitational and external loading is quite high in the investigated area. The results support in-field observations of a potentially unstable slope that could become hazardous under external forces. The results obtained through limit equilibrium slope stability analyses show how a stable slope can become an unstable slope as the water pressure acting on joints increases and how a stable slope under Barton's shear strength criterion can fail as the worst case scenario of using Mohr-Coulomb criterion.
With about 75% of the population of Korea criticizing the government's disaster policy and a failure to respond to large-scale emergency like the Sewol ferry sinking means that there is a deep distrust in the government. In order to prevent dreadful disasters such as the Sewol ferry sinking, it is important to secure a prime time with respect to disaster safety. Improving crisis management skills and managerial role of police officers who are in close proximity to the people is necessary for the success of disaster management. With disaster management as one of the most essential missions of the police, as a part of a national crisis management, a step by step strengthening of the disaster safety management system of the police is necessary, as below. First, at the prevention phase, law enforcement officers were not injected into for profit large-scale assemblies or events, but in the future the involvement, injection should be based on the level of potential risk, rather than profitability. In the past and now, the priortiy was the priority was on traffic flow, traffic communication, however, the paradigm of traffic policy should be changed to a safety-centered policy. To prevent large-scale accidents, police investigators should root out improper routines and illegal construction subcontracting. The police (intelligence) should strengthen efforts to collect intelligence under the subject of "safety". Second, with respect to the preparatory phase, on a survey of police officers, the result showed that 72% of police officers responded that safety management was not related to the job descriptions of the police. This, along with other results, shows that the awareness of disaster safety must be adopted by, or rather changed in the police urgently. The training in disaster safety education should be strengthened. A network of experts (private, administrative, and police) in safety management should be established to take advantage of private resources with regard to crisis situtions. Third, with respect to the response phase, for rapid first responses to occur, a unified communication network should be established, and a real-time video information network should be adopted by the police and installed in the police situation room. Fourth, during the recovery phase, recovery teams should be injected, added and operated to minimize secondary damage.
Kim, Woo-Chan;Lee, Chong-Heon;Kim, Kyung-Wook;Kim, Chang-Jin
Maxillofacial Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery
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v.21
no.2
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pp.89-109
/
1999
Vascular spasm which has been reported to occur in 25% of clinical cases continues to be a problem in microvascular surgery; When prolonged and not corrected, it can lead to low flow, thrombosis, and replant or free flap failure. Ischemia, intimal damage, acidosis and hypovolemia have been implicated as contributors to the vascular spasm. Although much work has been done on the etiology and prevention of vasospasm, a spasmolytic agent capable of firmly protecting against or reversing vasospasm has not been found. Therefore vascular freezing was introduced as a new safe method that immediately and permanently relieves the vasospasm and can be applied to microsurgical transfers. Cryosurgery can be defined as the deliberate destruction of diseased tissue or relief the vascular spasm in microvascular surgery by freezing in a controlled manner. 96 Sprague Dawley rats each weighing within 250g were used and divided into 2 group, experimental 1 and 2 group. In the experimental 1 group, right epigastric vessels (artery and vein) were freezed with a cryoprobe using $N_2O$ gas for 1 min. In the experimental 2 group, after freezing for 1 min, thawing for 30 secs and repeat freezing for 30 secs. Left side was chosen as control group in both group. We sacrified the experimental animals by 1 day, 3 days, 1 week, 2 weeks, 4 weeks & 5 months and observed the sequential change that occur during regeneration of epigastric vessels using a histologic, histomorphometric, immunohistochemical and SEM study after the vascular freezing. The results were as follows1. In epigastric arteries, internal diameters had statistically significant enlargement in 1 day, 3 days of Exp-1 group and 1 day, 3 days, 1 week & 2 weeks of Exp-2 group. Wall thickness had statistically significant thinning in 2 weeks of Exp-2 group. 2. In epigastric veins, internal diameters had enlargement of statistical significance in 1 day of Exp-1 and Exp-2 group. 3. The positive PCNA reactions in smooth muscle appeared in 1 week and increased until 2 weeks, decreased in 4 weeks. There was no statistical significance between Exp-1 and Exp-2 group. 4. The positive ${\alpha}$-SMA reaction in smooth muscles showed weak responses until 1 week and slowly increased in 2 weeks and showed almost control level in 4 weeks. 5. The positive S-100 reactions in the perivascular nerve bundles showed markedly decrease in 1 day, 3 days and increased after 1 week and showed almost control level in 4 weeks. Exp-1 group had stronger response than Exp-2 group. 6. In SEM, we observed defoliation of endothelial cell and flattening of vessel wall. Exp-2 group is more destroyed and healing was slower than Exp-1 group. To sum up, relief of vasospasm (vasodilatation) by freezing with cryoprobe was originated from the damage of smooth muscle layer and perivascular nerve bundle and the enlargement of internal diameter in vessels was similar to expeimental groups, but Exp-2 group had slower healing course and therefore vessel freezing in microsurgery can be clinically used, but repeat freezing time needs to be studied further.
Coronary artery aneurysm is a rare disorder. It is defined as abnormal dilatation of coronary artery with diameter exceeding 1.5 times the adjacent normal segments. The incidence of coronary aneurysm is 2.6% in Caucasians and 0.25% in Asians. Over half of the former were associated with atherosclerotic coronary artery disease. However, 70 percents of the latter were nonobstructive coronary artery aneurysms. Coronary artery fistula is a rare disorder. It has been identified in only 0.2% of routine cardiac angiographic studies conducted over a 10-year period. The clinical spectrums are various, asymtomatic, asymptomatic murmur, dyspnea on exertion, fatigue, and congestive heart failure. The right coronary artery (56%) and left coronary artery(36%) are mainly involved in the origin site of congenital coronary artery fistula. The draining site of fistula are right ventricle(39%), right atrium(33%), and pulmonary artery(20%) and so on. This 54 years-old woman had intermittent chest tightness and an abnormal mediastinal shadow on chest roentgenogram and chest C-T examination, which was diagnosed as a mediastinal mass such as teratoma. We performed the operation under left anterolateral thoracotomy for mass excision. However, we knew the mass had the pulsating arterial blood flow through a fine needle puncture of the mass and that it was attached to the left ventricle. We believed the excision of mass on beating heart would be very dangerous. Therefore, we closed the wound without excising the mass. After several days, we performed an echocardiography and coronary angiography, We knew it was cardiac tumor. Incidentally, the patient had a tortuous coronary fistula from the right coronary artery to pulmonary trunk. Using cardiopulmonary bypass with moderate systemic hypothermia, the mass was resected and the fistula was clipped with surgical clips. Pathology of the specimen was a giant coronary arterial aneurysm.
Choe Moon Young;Jo Hyung Rae;Sohn Young Kwan;Kim Yeadong
The Korean Journal of Petroleum Geology
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v.10
no.1_2
s.11
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pp.23-33
/
2004
The Lago Sofia conglomerate in southern Chile is a lenticular unit encased within mudstone-dominated, deep-sea successions (Cerro Toro Formation, upper Cretaceous), extending from north to south for more than $120{\cal}km$. The Lago Sofia conglomerate is a unique example of long, gravelly deep-sea channels, which are rare in the modern environments. In the northern part (areas of Lago Pehoe and Laguna Goic), the conglomerate unit consists of 3-5 conglomerate bodies intervened by mudstone sequences. Paleocurrent data from these bodies indicate sediment transport to the east, south, and southeart. The conglomerate bodies in the northern Part are interpreted as the tributary channels that drained down the Paleoslope and converged to form N-S-trending trunk channels. In the southern part (Lago Sofia section), the conglomerate unit comprises a thick (> 300 m) conglomerate body, which probably formed in axial trunk channels of the N-5-trending foredeep trough. The well-exposed Lago Sofia section allowed for detailed investigation of sedimentary facies and large-scale architecture of the deepsea channel conglomerate. The conglomerate in Lago Sofia section comprises stratified conglomerate, massive-to-graded conglomerate, and diamictite, which represent bedload deposition under turbidity currents, deposition by high-density turbidity currents, and muddy debris flows, respectively. Paleocurrent data suggest that the debris flows originated from the failure of nearby channel banks or slopes flanking the channel system, whereas the turbidity currents flowed parallel to the orientation of the overall channel system. Architectural elements produced by turbidity currents represent vertical stacking of gravel sheets, lateral accretion of gravel bars, migration of gravel dunes, and filling of channel thalwegs and scoured hollows, similar to those in terrestrial gravel-bed braided rivers. Observations of large-scale stratal pattern reveal that the channel bodies are offset stacked toward the east, suggestive of an eastward migration of the axial trunk channel. The eastward channel migration is probably due to tectonic tilting related to the uplift of the Andean protocordillera just west of the Lago Sofia deep-sea channel system.
Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
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v.6
no.4
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pp.297-303
/
2018
With the changing trend of the building construction to high rising and large scaling, the underground structure has been increased, and its usage also increased and variety. Hence, to protect the underground structure against underground water, various water proofing methods has been developed. Among the many water proofing methods, the combined water proofing method using both asphalt seal and sheet has been widely used to secure the sufficient performance and decrease the construction failure. However, during the summer period of extremely high temperature conditions, the asphalt sealing materials were separated and leaked into the structure. Therefore, the aim of the research is to provide the quality standard of asphalt sealing material based on the various temperature changes depending on seasons. According to the experimental results, the temperature of the sealing materials applied on the slab was increased up to $54^{\circ}C$ which was $3^{\circ}C$ higher than the structure temperature of $51^{\circ}C$. Based on the melting test for asphalt sealing materials applied on the outside wall of the structure, in the case of water-dispersing typed materials showed significant melting down due to its slow evaporation and low viscosity. Furthermore, from the accelerated test conducted indoor conditions, a solvent-type and water-dispersing typed materials showed significant melting down due to their low viscosity and melting point in ambient conditions. Based on these results, viscosity and melting point are found as the important factors on asphalt sealing materials' quality, and it is necessary to designate the quantitative level of the viscosity and melting point for quality control.
Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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v.17
no.4
/
pp.87-100
/
2022
Early start-up companies have an inherent limitation of lack of resources. Despite these limitations, in order to survive, the entrepreneur's personal ability to efficiently use limited resources is required. In the marketing field, various studies are needed to reduce the business failure rate through establishing growth strategies and innovation. Accordingly, it is necessary to apply the concept of entrepreneurial marketing, which has been researched and developed overseas for 30 years, to fit the domestic reality. According to the flow of this study, an empirical study should be preceded to clarify the influence relationship between entrepreneurial marketing orientation, marketing competency, and management performance, along with a theoretical theorem on entrepreneurial marketing that is suitable for early start-ups and small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) and can respond innovatively to changes. The establishment of entrepreneurial marketing orientation and the processes from which this concept leads to business performance through the organization's marketing capabilities and its effects will be empirically verified. For an empirical survey, a survey was conducted on founders of 220 companies, and path analysis using structural equations was used for hypothesis verification. The findings are as follows. First, it was found that the entrepreneurial marketing orientation had a positive effect on both the organization's marketing capabilities and management performance. Second, it was found that the organization's marketing capabilities also had a positive effect on management performance. Third, as a result of empirical analysis of the mediating effect of the organization's marketing capabilities on the relationship between entrepreneurial marketing orientation and management performance, it was found that marketing capabilities showed a greater mediating effect on non-financial performance than financial performance. On the other hand, it was confirmed that marketing performance had a stronger mediating effect on financial performance than non-financial performance. By confirming and presenting the concept and constituent factors of entrepreneurial marketing orientation of domestic start-ups, which were academic gaps for the purpose of this paper, the academic research is differentiated in that they were verified as six components of entrepreneurial marketing. The practical implications of the research results will be that the entrepreneurial marketing-oriented mindset of small and medium-sized companies will optimize market analysis capabilities, network with various stakeholders, and increase the organization's ability to demonstrate marketing capabilities.
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