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Social Welfare Policy Expansion and Generational Equity: Generational Accounting Approach (복지지출 확대가 세대 간 형평성에 미치는 효과 분석: 세대 간 회계를 이용한 접근)

  • Chun, Young Jun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.31-65
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    • 2012
  • We study the sustainability of the current fiscal policy of Korea, and the effects of the social welfare policy expansion, which has been recently discussed among the political circles, on the government budget and the generational equity, using generational accounting. We follow the generational accounting approach, considering the fact that most of the social welfare policies are the entitlement programs, which imposes the limitation of the policy maker's discretion to control the cost of their provision. The social welfare expenditure will change due to the change in the policy environments of the future, such as population aging. Therefore, we need to take into account the government cash flow of the future as well as of the present to investigate its effects on the fiscal sustainability, which implies that the national debt or the budget balance is not a proper index for the investigation. Our findings are as follows. The current fiscal policies are not sustainable, and the long-term budgetary imbalance is shown very serious. The required tax adjustment, which is defined as the percentage change of tax burden required to attain the long-term budgetary balance, is very large. Unless the level of the government expenditure is properly controlled, the tax burden and the social contribution level will rise to the untolerable level. Moreover, the expansion of the social welfare policies, which has been discussed among the political circles, will substantially increase the fiscal burden of the future generations. Even though the provision of the free lunch to the primary and the secondary school students, the free child care, and the discounted college tuition do not increase the fiscal burden much, because their magnitude at present is not large and will decrease due to the decrease in the number of the newborns and the students resulting from the fall in the fertility rate, that of the free health care service will increase tax burden of the future generations very much, because the magnitude of the government expenditure needed at present is very large and the population aging will further increase the magnitude of the health care expenditure. The findings indicate that the structural reforms, to prevent the explosive increase in the social welfare expenditure in the future, are necessary before the implementation of the welfare policy expansion. In particular, the cost control of the social transfers to the elderly needs to be made, because the speed of the population aging of Korea is among the highest in the world. The findings also indicate that the budget balance or the national debt can cause the fiscal illusion, which makes the Korean government budget look sound, even though the fiscal policy will rapidly increase the social welfare expenditure in the future, as the population ages. The generational accounting, which takes into account the cash flow of the future as well as of the present, unlike the budgetary balance and the national debt, which shows the results of the government financial activities of the past and the present, is a useful method to overcome the fiscal illusion.

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Simulation of Detailed Wind Flow over a Locally Heated Mountain Area Using a Computational Fluid Dynamics Model, CFD_NIMR_SNU - a fire case at Mt. Hwawang - (계산유체역학모형 CFD_NIMR_SNU를 이용한 국지적으로 가열된 산악지역의 상세 바람 흐름 모사 - 화왕산 산불 사례 -)

  • Koo, Hae-Jung;Choi, Young-Jean;Kim, Kyu-Rang;Byon, Jae-Young
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.192-205
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    • 2009
  • The unexpected wind over the Mt. Hwawang on 9 February 2009 was deadly when many spectators were watching a traditional event to burn dried grasses and the fire went out of control due to the wind. We analyzed the fatal wind based on wind flow simulations over a digitized complex terrain of the mountain with a localized heating area using a three dimensional computational fluid dynamics model, CFD_NIMR_SNU (Computational Fluid Dynamics_National Institute of Meteorological Research_Seoul National University). Three levels of fire intensity were simulated: no fire, $300^{\circ}C$ and $600^{\circ}C$ of surface temperature at the site on fire. The surface heat accelerated vertical wind speed by as much as $0.7\;m\;s^{-1}$ (for $300^{\circ}C$) and $1.1\;m\;s^{-1}$ (for $600^{\circ}C$) at the center of the fire. Turbulent kinetic energy was increased by the heat itself and by the increased mechanical force, which in turn was generated by the thermal convection. The heating together with the complex terrain and strong boundary wind induced the unexpected high wind conditions with turbulence at the mountain. The CFD_NIMR_SNU model provided valuable analysis data to understand the consequences of the fatal mountain fire. It is suggested that the place of fire was calm at the time of the fire setting due to the elevated terrain of the windward side. The suppression of wind was easily reversed when there was fire, which caused updraft of hot air by the fire and the strong boundary wind. The strong boundary wind in conjunction with the fire event caused the strong turbulence, resulting in many fire casualties. The model can be utilized in turbulence forecasting over a small area due to surface fire in conjunction with a mesoscale weather model to help fire prevention at the field.

Migration of the Dokdo Cold Eddy in the East Sea (동해 독도 냉수성 소용돌이의 이동 특성)

  • KIM, JAEMIN;CHOI, BYOUNG-JU;LEE, SANG-HO;BYUN, DO-SEONG;KANG, BOONSOON
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.351-373
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    • 2019
  • The cold eddies around the Ulleung Basin in the East Sea were identified from satellite altimeter sea level data using the Winding-Angle method from 1993 to 2015. Among the cold eddies, the Dokdo Cold Eddies (DCEs), which were formed at the first meandering trough of the East Korea Warm Current (EKWC) and were pinched off to the southwest from the eastward flow, were classified and their migration patterns were analyzed. The vertical structures of water temperature, salinity, and flow velocity near the DCE center were also examined using numerical simulation and observation data provided by the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model and the National Institute of Fisheries Science, respectively. A total of 112 DCEs were generated for 23 years. Of these, 39 DCEs migrated westward and arrived off the east coast of Korea. The average travel distance was 250.9 km, the average lifespan was 93 days, and the average travel speed was 3.5 cm/s. The other 73 DCEs had moved to the east or had hovered around the generated location until they disappeared. At 50-100 m depth under the DCE, water temperature and salinity (T < $5^{\circ}C$, S < 34.1) were lower than those of ambient water and isotherms made a dome shape. Current faster than 10 cm/s circulates counterclockwise from the surface to 300 m depth at 38 km away from the center of DCE. After the EKWC separates from the coast, it flows eastward and starts to meander near Ulleungdo. The first trough of the meander in the east of Ulleungdo is pushed deep into the southwest and forms a cold eddy (DCE), which is shed from the meander in the south of Ulleungdo. While a DCE moves westward, it circumvents the Ulleung Warm Eddy (UWE) clockwise and follows U shape path toward the east coast of Korea. When the DCE arrives near the coast, the EKWC separates from the coast at the south of DCE and circumvents the DCE. As the DCE near the coast weakens and extinguishes about 30 days later after the arrival, the EKWC flows northward along the coast recovering its original path. The DCE steadily transports heat and salt from the north to the south, which helps to form a cold water region in the southwest of the Ulleung Basin and brings positive vorticity to change the separation latitude and path of the EKWC. Some of the DCEs moving to the west were merged into a coastal cold eddy to form a wide cold water region in the west of Ulleung Basin and to create a elongated anticlockwise circulation, which separated the UWE in the north from the EKWC in the south.

Chemistry of mist deposition of organic polymer PEDOT:PSS on crystalline Si

  • Shirai, Hajime;Ohki, Tatsuya;Liu, Qiming;Ichikawa, Koki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2016.02a
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    • pp.388-388
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    • 2016
  • Chemical mist deposition (CMD) of poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene):poly(styrene sulfonate) (PEDOT:PSS) was investigated with cavitation frequency f, solvent, flow rate of nitrogen, substrate temperature $T_s$, and substrate dc bias $V_s$ as variables for efficient PEDOT:PSS/crystalline (c-)Si heterojunction solar cells (Fig. 1). The high-speed camera and differential mobility analysis characterizations revealed that average size and flux of PEDOT:PSS mist depend on f, solvent, and $V_s$. The size distribution of mist particles including EG/DI water cosolvent is also shown at three different $V_s$ of 0, 1.5, and 5 kV for a f of 3 MHz (Fig. 2). The size distribution of EG/DI water mist without PEDOT:PSS is also shown at the bottom. A peak maximum shifted from 300-350 to 20-30 nm with a narrow band width of ~150 nm for PEDOT:PSS solution, whose maximum number density increased significantly up to 8000/cc with increasing $V_s$. On the other hand, for EG/water cosolvent mist alone, the peak maximum was observed at a 72.3 nm with a number density of ~700/cc and a band width of ~160 nm and it decreased markedly with increasing $V_s$. These findings were not observed for PEDOT:PSS/EG/DI water mist. In addition, the Mie scattering image of PEDOT:PSS mist under white bias light was not observed at $V_s$ above 5 kV, because the average size of mist became smaller. These results imply that most of solvent is solvated in PEDOT:PSS molecule and/or solvent is vaporized. Thus, higher f and $V_s$ generate preferentially fine mist particle with a narrower band width. Film deposition occurred when $V_s$ was impressed on positive to a c-Si substrate at a Ts of $30-40^{\circ}C$, whereas no deposition of films occurred on negative, implying that negatively charged mist mainly provide the film deposition. The uniform deposition of PEDOT:PSS films occurred on textured c-Si(100) substrate by adjusting $T_s$ and $V_s$. The adhesion of CMD PEDOT:PSS to c-Si enhanced by $V_s$ conspicuously compared to that of spin-coated film. The CMD PEDOT:PSS/c-Si solar cell devices on textured c-Si(100) exhibited a ${\eta}$ of 11.0% with the better uniformity of the solar cell parameters. Furthermore, ${\eta}$ increased to 12.5% with a $J_{sc}$ of $35.6mA/cm^2$, a $V_{oc}$ of 0.53 V, and a FF of 0.67 with an antireflection (AR) coating layer of 20-nm-thick CMD molybdenum oxide $MoO_x$ (n= 2.1) using negatively charged mist of 0.1 wt% 12 Molybdo (VI) phosphoric acid n-Hydrate) $H_3(PMo_{12}O_40){\cdot}nH_2O$ in methanol. CMD. These findings suggest that the CMD with negatively charged mist has a great potential for the uniform deposition of organic and inorganic on textured c-Si substrate by adjusting $T_s$ and $V_s$.

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Estimating the Dimension of a Crosswalk in Urban Area - Focusing on Width and Stop Line - (도시부 횡단보도 제원 산정에 관한 연구 - 폭과 정지선을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Yoomi;Park, Jejin;Kwon, Sungdae;Ha, Taejun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.847-856
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    • 2016
  • Recently, with a high level of economic growth, rapid urbanization, population, environment and housing problems were accompanied in Korea. In particular, the traffic problem has become a serious social problem. As the current transportation policy has been carried out, concentrating on traffic flow, in 2015, death rate for pedestrians while walking (1,795 persons) is 38.8% compared to entire death rate in car accident (4,621 persons), so there is need to solve it. Although, crosswalk should make pedestrian cross it safely, it has been made on the basis of the width of road without exact standard for current width of the crosswalk and the location of stop line. Moreover, in the area around many campuses or commercial facilities, crosswalks are set with not considering pedestrian passage, but designed uniformly. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate reasonable dimension of crosswalk considering pedestrian traffic and walking speed and it makes the accident rate lower in the crosswalk, which has a lot of problems including decisions of vehicle traffic signal time, lack of pedestrian's signal timing, pedestrian's crossing of long-distance. The following are the methodology of the study. Firstly, for crosswalk calculation of specifications, examination relating existing regulations and researches dealing with crosswalk, pedestrians and stop line is needed. After analyzing problems of current width of crosswalk and stop line, present the methodology to calculation of specifications and basing on these things, calculation of specifications for crosswalk will be decided. In conclusion, the calculation of specification and improvement of stop line for crosswalk laid out in this study are expected to be utilized as base data in case of establishing relevant safety facilities and standards.

Numerical Simulation of Residual Currents and tow Salinity Dispersions by Changjiang Discharge in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea (황해 및 동중국해에서 양쯔강의 담수유입량 변동에 따른 잔차류 및 저염분 확산 수치모의)

  • Lee, Dae-In;Kim, Jong-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.67-85
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    • 2007
  • A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model with the fine grid is applied to simulate the barotropic tides, tidal currents, residual currents and salinity dispersions in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea. Data inputs include seasonal hydrography, mean wind and river input, and oceanic tides. Computed tidal distributions of four major tides($M_2,\;S_2,\;K_1$ and $O_1$) are presented and results are in good agreement with the observations in the domain. The model reproduces well the tidal charts. The tidal residual current is relatively strong around west coast of Korea including the Cheju Island and southern coast of China. The current by $M_2$ has a maximum speed of 10 cm/s in the vicinity of Cheju Island with a anti-clockwise circulation in the Yellow Sea. General tendency of the current, however, is to flow eastward in the South Sea. Surface residual current simulated with $M_2$ and with $M_2+S_2+K_1+O_1$ tidal forcing shows slightly different patterns in the East China Sea. The model shows that the southerly wind reduces the southward current created by freshwater discharge. In summer during high runoff(mean discharge about $50,000\;m^3/s$ of Yangtze), low salinity plume-like structure(with S < 30.0 psu) extending some 160 km toward the northeast and Changjiang Diluted Water(CDW), below salinity 26 psu, was found within about 95 km. The offshore dispersion of the Changjiang outflow water is enhanced by the prevailing southerly wind. It is estimated that the inertia of the river discharge cannot exclusively reach the around sea of Cheju Island. It is noted that spatial and temporal distribution of salinity and the other materials are controlled by mixture of Changjiang discharge, prevailing wind, advection by flowing warm current and tidal current.

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A Study on Air Resistance and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of an Ocean Leisure Planning Boat (해양레저용 활주형선의 공기저항 및 온실 가스 배출에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Y.S.;Hwang, S.K.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.202-210
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    • 2013
  • As incomes increase, interest in ocean leisure picks up. As a result, a lot of research and developments on hull form design and production of planing boats, mostly used for ocean leisure, are needed. Analysis in researches on resistance of planing boats shows that resistance characteristic of planing boats is different from resistance characteristic of general boats because the former is fast, and its wetted surface is very small. Using Savitsky formula widely used in the calculation of effective horse power in shipbuildingyards, and propulsion system and engine manufacturers, this study calculated total resistance of a research planing boat. Then it analyzed the flow characteristics of the planing boat through theoretical analysis and wind tunnel experiment, and computed air resistance and lift force by changes of speed and trim angle. It also compared and analyzed result of theoretical analysis and experiment of the ratio of air resistance to total resistance under variations of velocity and trim angle. When the study is used to estimate more accurate effective horse power, it is expected to remedy abuses of unnecessarily installing high-powered engine. As nature disasters due to abnormal changes of weather increase, interest in greenhouse gas grows. International Maritime Organization (IMO) legislated Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) and Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI) to reduce ship greenhouse gas emissions. But this index will be applied to over 400 tons ships, small ships, emitting more greenhouse gases than larege ships per unit power, will dodge the regulations. Thus, this study indicated a problem by calculating greenhouse gas emissions of an ocean leisure planning boat (a small ship), and suggested the need for EEDI of small ships.

A Study on the Acceptance of Convergence System of Broadcasting, and Telecommunication, and Their Relative Efficiency Focusing on IPFV (방송과 통신 융합시스템의 수용 및 상대적 효능에 관한 연구: IPTV를 중심으로)

  • Um, Myoung-Yong;Lee, Sang-Ho;Kim, Jai-Beam
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.25-49
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    • 2009
  • Advances in technology have resulted in the emergence of new information systems. The convergence of IT and manufacturing sectors has blurred the boundaries among industries. Also, such convergence has become established as a paradigm to build a new area. Especially the convergence of broadcasting and telecommunication, notably in the case of IPTV (Internet Protocol Television), is among the most salient examples of its kind in recent years as a major case of disruptive technology innovation. Despite its much fanfare, such convergence, however, has not fulfilled the expectation; it has not produced positive economic effects while negatively affecting the growth of IPIV. Stakeholders in and around IPIV including telecommunication companies, broadcasting corporations, and government bodies wish to gain control of IPTV under their wings. IPTV has drifted in the midst of conflicts among the stakeholders in and around IPTV, particularly telecommunication and broadcasting organizations in a broad sense. Our empirical research intends to deal with how audiences accept IPTV and how firms provide IPTV services to utilize their resources. Three research questions in this paper include, first, whether Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) can sufficiently explain the acceptance of IPTV as an information system. The second question concerns with empirically testing the playful aspect of IPTV to increase its audience acceptance. Last, but not least, this paper deals with how firms can efficiently and effectively allocate their limited resources to increase IPTV viewers. To answer those three main questions of our study, we collect data from 197 current subscribers of high speed internet service and/or cable/satellite television. Empirical results show that 'perceived usefulness (PU) $\rightarrow$ Intention to use' and 'perceived ease of use (PEU) $\rightarrow$ Intention to use' are significant. Also, 'perceived ease of use' is significantly related to 'perceived usefulness.' Perceived ease of handling IPTV without much effort can positively influence the perceived value of IPTV. In this regard, engineers and designers of IPTV should pay more attention to the user-friendly interface of IPTV. In addition, 'perceived playfulness (PP)' of IPTV is positively related to 'intention to use'. Flow, fun and entertainment have recently gained greater attention in the research concerned with information systems. Such attention is due to the changing features of information systems in recent years that combine the functional and leisure attributes. These results give practical implications to the design of IPTV that reflects not just leisure but also functional elements. This paper also investigates the relationship between 'perceived ease of use (PEU)' and 'perceived playfulness (PP).' PEU is positively related to pp. Audiences without fear can be attracted more easily to the user-friendly IPTV, thereby perceiving the fun and entertainment with ease. Practical implications from this finding are that, to attract more interest and involvement from the audience, IPTV needs to be designed with similar or even more user friendly interface. Of the factors related to 'intention to use', 'perceived usefulness (PU)' and 'perceived ease of use (PEU)' have greater impacts than 'perceived playfulness (PP).' Between PU and PEU, their impacts on 'intention to use' are not significantly different statistically. Managerial implications of this finding are that firms in preparation for the launch of IPTV service should prioritize the functions and interface of IPTV. This empirical paper also provides further insight into the ways in which firms can strategically allocate their limited resources so as to appeal to viewers, both current and potential, of IPTV.

Properties of Wildbirds Habitat according to Biotope Types at Seom River and Wonju Stream (원주시 섬강, 원주천의 비오톱유형별 야생조류 서식특성 연구)

  • Noh, Tai-Hwan;Pi, Jae-Hwang;Choi, Jin-Woo;Lee, Kyong-Jae
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.676-689
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    • 2013
  • This study is to understand the current situation of Wonju Stream, which flows through Wonju, Kangwon-do, and Seom River, the national river located outside of Wonju, by investigating all river areas using biotope type. Also, this research looked into the relationship between biotope and appearance of wild birds by investigating the location of their appearance. Biotope groups are 'scale', 'shape', and 'landscape'. And, biotope types are 'moisture', 'physical environment', and 'existence of vegetation'. Biotope subtypes are 'river area', 'physical environment', 'vegetation type', and 'usage of land'. Seom River is classified as 21 different sections, and Wonju Stream is classified as 19 different sections. Wild birds are investigated on breeding season, which was January and May of 2008. By marking each bird's location of appearance, it figured out properties of biotope according to the location of bird's appearance. 31 species, 795 birds in spring were founded, and 49 species, 4,348 birds are founded in winter at Seom River area. Also, 34 species, 427 birds in spring, and 33 species, 3,442 birds are founded in winter at Wonju Stream area. In winter, 26 species, 547 birds, and in spring, 12 species, 72 birds at natural river with estuaries in confluence of Seom River area are founded. Also, 34 species, 1412 birds in winter, and 24 species, 341 birds in spring are founded at natural river with estuaries and wetland plants. This means that because agricultural rivers have wide river width, slow flow speed, and many different types of biotope, these rivers can be good habitats for wild birds. The precise investigations and classifications of biotope, which especially are hard for linear rivers, were done to understand the whole and current situation of rivers. Furthermore, the data that shows the locations of wild birds can basically be used for a recovery of biological habitats, a constructing of ecological streams, a river-maintenance, and an enhancement of biodiversity of Wonju. Also, because the types of biotope are altered by rain, a continuous monitoring for maintaining ecosystem of rivers are highly needed.

Movement of Cold Water Mass in the Northern East China Sea in Summer (하계 동중국해 북부 해역에서 저층 냉수괴의 거동)

  • Jang, Sung-Tae;Lee, Jae-Hak;Kim, Cheol-Ho;Jang, Chan-Joo;Jang, Young-Suk
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2011
  • The Yellow Sea Cold Water (YSCW) is formed by cold and dry wind in the previous winter, and is known to spread southward along the central trough of the Yellow Sea in summer. Water characteristics of the YSCW and its movement in the northern East China Sea (ECS) are investigated by analyzing CTD (conductivity-Temperature-Depth) data collected from summertime hydrographic surveys between 2003 and 2009. By water mass analysis, we newly define the North Western Cold Water (NWCW) as a cold water mass observed in the study area. It is characterized by temperature below $13.2^{\circ}C$, salinity of 32.6~33.7 psu, and density (${\sigma}_t$) of 24.7~25.5. The NWCW appears to flow southward at about a speed less than 2 cm/s according to the geostrophic calculation. The newly defined NWCW shows an interannual variation in the range of temperature and occupied area, which is in close relation with the sea surface temperature (SST) over the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea in the previous winter season. The winter SST is determined by winter air temperature, which shows a high correlation with the winter-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. The negative winter-mean AO causes the low winter SST over the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea, resulting in the summertime expansion and lower temperature of the NWCW in the study area. This study shows a dynamic relation among the winter-mean AO index, SST, and NWCW, which helps to predict the movement of NWCW in the northern ECS in summer.