• Title/Summary/Keyword: Flow Network Model

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The current state and prospects of travel business development under the COVID-19 pandemic

  • Tkachenko, Tetiana;Pryhara, Olha;Zatsepina, Nataly;Bryk, Stepan;Holubets, Iryna;Havryliuk, Alla
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.12spc
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    • pp.664-674
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    • 2021
  • The relevance of this scientific research is determined by the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the current trends and dynamics of world tourism development. This article aims to identify patterns of development of the modern tourist market, analysis of problems and prospects of development in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and methods. General scientific methods and methods of research are used in the work: analysis, synthesis, comparison, analysis of statistical data. The analysis of the viewpoints of foreign and domestic authors on the research of the international tourist market allowed us to substantiate the actual directions of tourism development due to the influence of negative factors connected with the spread of a new coronavirus infection COVID-19. Economic-statistical, abstract-logical, and economic-mathematical methods of research were used during the process of study and data processing. Results. The analysis of the current state of the tourist market by world regions was carried out. It was found that tourism is one of the most affected sectors from COVID-19, as, by the end of 2020, the total number of tourist arrivals in the world decreased by 74% compared to the same period in 2019. The consequence of this decline was a loss of total global tourism revenues by the end of 2020, which equaled $1.3 trillion. 27% of all destinations are completely closed to international tourism. At the end of 2020, the economy of international tourism has shrunk by about 80%. In 2020 the world traveled 98 million fewer people (-83%) relative to the same period last year. Tourism was hit hardest by the pandemic in the Asia-Pacific region, where travel restrictions are as strict as possible. International arrivals in this region fell by 84% (300 million). The Middle East and Africa recorded declines of 75 and 70 percent. Despite a small and short-lived recovery in the summer of 2020, Europe lost 71% of the tourist flow, with the European continent recording the largest drop in absolute terms compared with 2019, 500 million. In North and South America, foreign arrivals declined. It is revealed that a significant decrease in tourist flows leads to a massive loss of jobs, a sharp decline in foreign exchange earnings and taxes, which limits the ability of states to support the tourism industry. Three possible scenarios of exit of the tourist industry from the crisis, reflecting the most probable changes of monthly tourist flows, are considered. The characteristics of respondents from Ukraine, Germany, and the USA and their attitude to travel depending on gender, age, education level, professional status, and monthly income are presented. About 57% of respondents from Ukraine, Poland, and the United States were planning a tourist trip in 2021. Note that people with higher or secondary education were more willing to plan such a trip. The results of the empirical study confirm that interest in domestic tourism has increased significantly in 2021. The regression model of dependence of the number of domestic tourist trips on the example of Ukraine with time tendency (t) and seasonal variations (Turˆt = 7288,498 - 20,58t - 410,88∑5) it forecast for 2020, which allows stabilizing the process of tourist trips after the pandemic to use this model to forecast for any country. Discussion. We should emphasize the seriousness of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fact that many experts and scientists believe in the long-term recovery of the tourism industry. In our opinion, the governments of the countries need to refocus on domestic tourism and deal with infrastructure development, search for new niches, formats, formation of new package deals in new - domestic - segment (new products' development (tourist routes, exhibitions, sightseeing programs, special rehabilitation programs after COVID) -19 in sanatoriums, etc.); creation of individual offers for different target audiences). Conclusions. Thus, the identified trends are associated with a decrease in the number of tourist flows, the negative impact of the pandemic on employment and income from tourism activities. International tourism needs two to four years before it returns to the level of 2019.

Development of a complex failure prediction system using Hierarchical Attention Network (Hierarchical Attention Network를 이용한 복합 장애 발생 예측 시스템 개발)

  • Park, Youngchan;An, Sangjun;Kim, Mintae;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.127-148
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    • 2020
  • The data center is a physical environment facility for accommodating computer systems and related components, and is an essential foundation technology for next-generation core industries such as big data, smart factories, wearables, and smart homes. In particular, with the growth of cloud computing, the proportional expansion of the data center infrastructure is inevitable. Monitoring the health of these data center facilities is a way to maintain and manage the system and prevent failure. If a failure occurs in some elements of the facility, it may affect not only the relevant equipment but also other connected equipment, and may cause enormous damage. In particular, IT facilities are irregular due to interdependence and it is difficult to know the cause. In the previous study predicting failure in data center, failure was predicted by looking at a single server as a single state without assuming that the devices were mixed. Therefore, in this study, data center failures were classified into failures occurring inside the server (Outage A) and failures occurring outside the server (Outage B), and focused on analyzing complex failures occurring within the server. Server external failures include power, cooling, user errors, etc. Since such failures can be prevented in the early stages of data center facility construction, various solutions are being developed. On the other hand, the cause of the failure occurring in the server is difficult to determine, and adequate prevention has not yet been achieved. In particular, this is the reason why server failures do not occur singularly, cause other server failures, or receive something that causes failures from other servers. In other words, while the existing studies assumed that it was a single server that did not affect the servers and analyzed the failure, in this study, the failure occurred on the assumption that it had an effect between servers. In order to define the complex failure situation in the data center, failure history data for each equipment existing in the data center was used. There are four major failures considered in this study: Network Node Down, Server Down, Windows Activation Services Down, and Database Management System Service Down. The failures that occur for each device are sorted in chronological order, and when a failure occurs in a specific equipment, if a failure occurs in a specific equipment within 5 minutes from the time of occurrence, it is defined that the failure occurs simultaneously. After configuring the sequence for the devices that have failed at the same time, 5 devices that frequently occur simultaneously within the configured sequence were selected, and the case where the selected devices failed at the same time was confirmed through visualization. Since the server resource information collected for failure analysis is in units of time series and has flow, we used Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), a deep learning algorithm that can predict the next state through the previous state. In addition, unlike a single server, the Hierarchical Attention Network deep learning model structure was used in consideration of the fact that the level of multiple failures for each server is different. This algorithm is a method of increasing the prediction accuracy by giving weight to the server as the impact on the failure increases. The study began with defining the type of failure and selecting the analysis target. In the first experiment, the same collected data was assumed as a single server state and a multiple server state, and compared and analyzed. The second experiment improved the prediction accuracy in the case of a complex server by optimizing each server threshold. In the first experiment, which assumed each of a single server and multiple servers, in the case of a single server, it was predicted that three of the five servers did not have a failure even though the actual failure occurred. However, assuming multiple servers, all five servers were predicted to have failed. As a result of the experiment, the hypothesis that there is an effect between servers is proven. As a result of this study, it was confirmed that the prediction performance was superior when the multiple servers were assumed than when the single server was assumed. In particular, applying the Hierarchical Attention Network algorithm, assuming that the effects of each server will be different, played a role in improving the analysis effect. In addition, by applying a different threshold for each server, the prediction accuracy could be improved. This study showed that failures that are difficult to determine the cause can be predicted through historical data, and a model that can predict failures occurring in servers in data centers is presented. It is expected that the occurrence of disability can be prevented in advance using the results of this study.

The Phenomenological Comparison between Results from Single-hole and Cross-hole Hydraulic Test (균열암반 매질 내 단공 및 공간 간섭 시험에 대한 현상적 비교)

  • Kim, Tae-Hee;Kim, Kue-Young;Oh, Jun-Ho;Hwang, Se-Ho
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.39-53
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    • 2007
  • Generally, fractured medium can be described with some key parameters, such as hydraulic conductivities or random field of hydraulic conductivities (continuum model), spatial and statistical distribution of permeable fractures (discrete fracture network model). Investigating the practical applicability of the well-known conceptual models for the description of groundwater flow in fractured media, various types of hydraulic tests were applied to studies on the highly fractured media in Geumsan, Korea. Results from single-hole packer test show that the horizontal hydraulic conductivities in the permeable media are between $7.67{\times}10^{-10}{\sim}3.16{\times}10^{-6}$ m/sec, with $7.70{\times}10^{-7}$ m/sec arithmetic mean and $2.16{\times}10^{-7}$ m/sec geometric mean. Total number of test interval is 110 at 8 holes. The number of completely impermeable interval is 9, and the low permeable interval - below $1.0{\times}10^{-8}$ m/sec is 14. In other words, most of test intervals are permeable. The vertical distribution of hydraulic conductivities shows apparently the good correlation with the results of flowmeter test. But the results from the cross-hole test show some different features. The results from the cross-hole test are highly related to the connectivity and/or the binary properties of fractured media; permeable and impermeable. From the viewpoint of the connection, the application of the general stochastic approach with a single continuum model may not be appropriate even in the moderately or highly permeable fractured medium. Then, further studies on the investigation method and the analysis procedures should be required for the reasonable and practical design of the conceptual model, with which the binary properties, including permeable/impermeable features, can be described.

Improvement of turbid water prediction accuracy using sensor-based monitoring data in Imha Dam reservoir (센서 기반 모니터링 자료를 활용한 임하댐 저수지 탁수 예측 정확도 개선)

  • Kim, Jongmin;Lee, Sang Ung;Kwon, Siyoon;Chung, Se Woong;Kim, Young Do
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.11
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    • pp.931-939
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    • 2022
  • In Korea, about two-thirds of the precipitation is concentrated in the summer season, so the problem of turbidity in the summer flood season varies from year to year. Concentrated rainfall due to abnormal rainfall and extreme weather is on the rise. The inflow of turbidity caused a sudden increase in turbidity in the water, causing a problem of turbidity in the dam reservoir. In particular, in Korea, where rivers and dam reservoirs are used for most of the annual average water consumption, if turbidity problems are prolonged, social and environmental problems such as agriculture, industry, and aquatic ecosystems in downstream areas will occur. In order to cope with such turbidity prediction, research on turbidity modeling is being actively conducted. Flow rate, water temperature, and SS data are required to model turbid water. To this end, the national measurement network measures turbidity by measuring SS in rivers and dam reservoirs, but there is a limitation in that the data resolution is low due to insufficient facilities. However, there is an unmeasured period depending on each dam and weather conditions. As a sensor for measuring turbidity, there are Optical Backscatter Sensor (OBS) and YSI, and a sensor for measuring SS uses equipment such as Laser In-Situ Scattering and Transmissometry (LISST). However, in the case of such a high-tech sensor, there is a limit due to the stability of the equipment. Therefore, there is an unmeasured period through analysis based on the acquired flow rate, water temperature, SS, and turbidity data, so it is necessary to develop a relational expression to calculate the SS used for the input data. In this study, the AEM3D model used in the Water Resources Corporation SURIAN system was used to improve the accuracy of prediction of turbidity through the turbidity-SS relationship developed based on the measurement data near the dam outlet.

A fundamental study on the development of feasibility assessment system for utility tunnel by urban patterns (도심지 유형별 공동구 설치 타당성 평가시스템 개발에 관한 기초 연구)

  • Lee, Seong-Won;Sim, Young-Jong;Na, Gwi-Tae
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.11-27
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    • 2017
  • The road network system of major domestic urban areas such as city of Seoul was rapidly developed and regionally expanded. In addition, many kinds of life-lines such as electrical cables, telephone cables, water&sewerage lines, heat&cold conduits and gas lines were needed in order for urban residents to live comfortably. Therefore, most of the life-lines were individually buried in underground and individually managed. The utility tunnel is defined as the urban planning facilities for commonly installing life-lines in the National Land Planning Act. Expectation effectiveness of urban utility tunnels is reducing repeated excavation of roads, improvement of urban landscape; road pavement durability; driving performance and traffic flow. It can also be expected that ensuring disaster safety for earthquakes and sinkholes, smart-grind and electric vehicle supply, rapid response to changes in future living environment and etc. Therefore, necessity of urban utility tunnels has recently increased. However, all of the constructed utility tunnels are cut-and-cover tunnels domestically, which is included in development of new-town areas. Since urban areas can not accommodate all buried life-lines, it is necessary to study the feasibility assessment system for utility tunnel by urban patterns and capacity optimization for urban utility tunnels. In this study, we break away from the new-town utility tunnels and suggest a quantitative assessment model based on the evaluation index for urban areas. In addition, we also develop a program that can implement a quantitative evaluation system by subdividing the feasibility assessment system of urban patterns. Ultimately, this study can contribute to be activated the urban utility tunnel.

The Genealogical Study on SWIFTNet Trade Service Utility and Bank Payment Obligation (SWIFTNet TSU BPO의 계보학적 연구)

  • Lee, Bong-Soo
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.3-21
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    • 2016
  • The thesis examines genealogical study of various aspects to overcome lots of problems which come by when we execute SWIFTNet TSU BPO. Practical implications regarding the innovation of electronic trade infrastructure are as follows. First, the shipping documents in the SWIFTNet TSU BPO are directly sent to an importer by an exporter after the baseline is confirmed. With this process itself, therefore, the bank cannot secure the account receivable. When initiating the SWIFTNet TSU BPO deal, it is needed to set regulations on the bank's account receivable security in the contract. Second, the SWIFTNet TSU BPO should also have an institutionally unified sharing platform with security, stability and convenience. It other words, it is needed to develop services which meet e-payment paradigm and international environments through continued analysis on market changes and flow. Third, the SWIFTNet TSU is useful in terms of promptness, reduction of risk in foreign exchange payment, cost reduction. Therefore, the SWIFT should be perfectly united and linked among the banks, importer and exporter to make the SWIFTNet TSU more convenient in countries around the world. Fourth, the SWIFT should be approached from the aspect of expansion of network and creation of a new business model through analysis on these problems with a worldwide perspective. At the same time, it is necessary to build a cooperative system to share information and promote comprehensive management for efficient operation.

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Collaboration and Node Migration Method of Multi-Agent Using Metadata of Naming-Agent (네이밍 에이전트의 메타데이터를 이용한 멀티 에이전트의 협력 및 노드 이주 기법)

  • Kim, Kwang-Jong;Lee, Yon-Sik
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.11D no.1
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    • pp.105-114
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we propose a collaboration method of diverse agents each others in multi-agent model and describe a node migration algorithm of Mobile-Agent (MA) using by the metadata of Naming-Agent (NA). Collaboration work of multi-agent assures stability of agent system and provides reliability of information retrieval on the distributed environment. NA, an important part of multi-agent, identifies each agents and series the unique name of each agents, and each agent references the specified object using by its name. Also, NA integrates and manages naming service by agents classification such as Client-Push-Agent (CPA), Server-Push-Agent (SPA), and System-Monitoring-Agent (SMA) based on its characteristic. And, NA provides the location list of mobile nodes to specified MA. Therefore, when MA does move through the nodes, it is needed to improve the efficiency of node migration by specified priority according to hit_count, hit_ratio, node processing and network traffic time. Therefore, in this paper, for the integrated naming service, we design Naming Agent and show the structure of metadata which constructed with fields such as hit_count, hit_ratio, total_count of documents, and so on. And, this paper presents the flow of creation and updating of metadata and the method of node migration with hit_count through the collaboration of multi-agent.

Implications of Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Product Flows and Forest Dependent Communities in the Western Ghats, India

  • Murthy, Indu K.;Bhat, Savithri;Sathyanarayan, Vani;Patgar, Sridhar;M., Beerappa;Bhat, P.R.;Bhat, D.M.;Gopalakrishnan, Ranjith;Jayaraman, Mathangi;Munsi, Madhushree;N.H., Ravindranath;M.A., Khalid;M., Prashant;Iyer, Sudha;Saxena, Raghuvansh
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.189-200
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    • 2014
  • The tropical wet evergreen, tropical semi evergreen and moist deciduous forest types are projected to be impacted by climate change. In the Western Ghats region, a biodiversity hotspot, evergreen forests including semi evergreen account for 30% of the forest area and according to climate change impact model projections, nearly a third of these forest types are likely to undergo vegetation type change. Similarly, tropical moist deciduous forests which account for about 28% of the forest area are likely to experience change in about 20% of the area. Thus climate change could adversely impact forest biodiversity and product flow to the forest dependent households and communities in Uttara Kannada district of the Western Ghats. This study analyses the distribution of non-timber forest product yielding tree species through a network of twelve 1-ha permanent plots established in the district. Further, the extent of dependence of communities on forests is ascertained through questionnaire surveys. On an average 21% and 28% of the tree species in evergreen and deciduous forest types, respectively are, non-timber forest product yielding tree species, indicating potential high levels of supply of products to communities. Community dependence on non-timber forest products is significant, and it contributes to Rs. 1199 and Rs. 3561/household in the evergreen and deciduous zones, respectively. Given that the bulk of the forest grids in Uttara Kannada district are projected to undergo change, bulk of the species which provide multiple forest products are projected to experience die back and even mortality. Incorporation of climate change projections and impacts in forest planning and management is necessary to enable forest ecosystems to enhance resilience.

The Differential Staging of Murine Thymic Lymphoma Cell Lines, Scid.adh, R1.1 and EL-4

  • Chae, Jong Seok;Kim, Hae-jung;Park, Weon Seo;Bae, Youngmee;Jung, Kyeong Cheon
    • IMMUNE NETWORK
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.217-222
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    • 2002
  • Background: Scid.adh is a recently developed murine thymic lymphoma cell line, which has been used as in vitro model for the study of double negative stage III thymocytes. In this study, we compared the expression profile of a number of genes and proteins, which are tightly related to T cell development and apoptosis, in thymic lymphoma cell lines, R1.1, EL-4, and Scid.adh for the developmental staging. Methods: We examined the expression of development marker genes and proteins in three lymphoma cell lines by flow cytometry and RT-PCR. In addition, the expression of apoptosis-related molecules including bcl-2, bax and Fas was also investigated. Results: As previously reported, Scid.adh cell line expressed CD8 and CD25 but not TCR ${\alpha}$ chain, while R1.1 cells expressed TCR ${\alpha}$ chain and both CD4 and CD8 transcripts. These suggest that R1.1 might be in double positive stage, and low level of CD44 expression and the absence of CD25 support this suggestion. In contrast, EL-4 cells showed high level of TCR ${\alpha}$ chain transcript, and low-level of CD4 expression, suggesting that EL-4 is in more mature stage than R1.1. Further, this suggestion was supported by the lack of mT-20 in EL-4 cells, which is expressed in the immature thymocytes, and Scid.adh and R1.1 cell lines, but not in the terminally differentiated thymocytes and peripheral T cells. Among the apoptosis-related gene, transcripts of bcl-2 gene were detected in both R1.1 and EL-4 but not in Scid.adh cells, while bax was expressed in all cell lines. Fas expression was the highest in EL-4 cells and low in Scid.adh cell line. Conclusion: R1.1 cell may represent double positive stage, and EL-4 is more differentiated cell line. In addition, Scid.adh and EL-4 cell lines are suspected to be useful for the study of function of bcl-2 family and Fas during the thymocyte development, respectively.

Change of Fractured Rock Permeability due to Thermo-Mechanical Loading of a Deep Geological Repository for Nuclear Waste - a Study on a Candidate Site in Forsmark, Sweden

  • Min, Ki-Bok;Stephansson, Ove
    • Proceedings of the Korean Radioactive Waste Society Conference
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    • 2009.06a
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    • pp.187-187
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    • 2009
  • Opening of fractures induced by shear dilation or normal deformation can be a significant source of fracture permeability change in fractured rock, which is important for the performance assessment of geological repositories for spent nuclear fuel. As the repository generates heat and later cools the fluid-carrying ability of the rocks becomes a dynamic variable during the lifespan of the repository. Heating causes expansion of the rock close to the repository and, at the same time, contraction close to the surface. During the cooling phase of the repository, the opposite takes place. Heating and cooling together with the, virgin stress can induce shear dilation of fractures and deformation zones and change the flow field around the repository. The objectives of this work are to examine the contribution of thermal stress to the shear slip of fracture in mid- and far-field around a KBS-3 type of repository and to investigate the effect of evolution of stress on the rock mass permeability. In the first part of this study, zones of fracture shear slip were examined by conducting a three-dimensional, thermo-mechanical analysis of a spent fuel repository model in the size of 2 km $\times$ 2 km $\times$ 800 m. Stress evolutions of importance for fracture shear slip are: (1) comparatively high horizontal compressive thermal stress at the repository level, (2) generation of vertical tensile thermal stress right above the repository, (3) horizontal tensile stress near the surface, which can induce tensile failure, and generation of shear stresses at the comers of the repository. In the second part of the study, fracture data from Forsmark, Sweden is used to establish fracture network models (DFN). Stress paths obtained from the thermo-mechanical analysis were used as boundary conditions in DFN-DEM (Discrete Element Method) analysis of six DFN models at the repository level. Increases of permeability up to a factor of four were observed during thermal loading history and shear dilation of fractures was not recovered after cooling of the repository. An understanding of the stress path and potential areas of slip induced shear dilation and related permeability changes during the lifetime of a repository for spent nuclear fuel is of utmost importance for analysing long-term safety. The result of this study will assist in identifying critical areas around a repository where fracture shear slip is likely to develop. The presentation also includes a brief introduction to the ongoing site investigation on two candidate sites for geological repository in Sweden.

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