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The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

Genetic Parameters for Milk Production and Somatic Cell Score of First Lactation in Holstein Cattle with Random Regression Test-Day Models (임의회귀 검정일 모형을 이용한 홀스타인 젖소의 1산차 산유형질 및 체세포지수에 대한 유전모수)

  • Lee, D.H.;Jo, J.H.;Han, K.G.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.739-748
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    • 2003
  • The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for test-day milk production and somatic cell score using field data collected by dairy herd improvement program in Korea. Random regression animal models were applied to estimate genetic variances for milk production and somatic cell score. Heritabilities for milk yields, fat percentage, protein percentage, solid-not-fat percentage, and somatic cell score from test day records of 5,796 first lactation Holstein cows were estimated by REML algorithm in single trait random regression test-day animal models. For these analyses, Legendre polynomial covariate function was applied to model the fixed effect of age-season, the additive genetic effect and the permanent environment effect as random. Homogeneous residual variance was assumed to be equal throughout lactation. Heritabilities as a function of time were calculated from the estimated curve parameters from univariate analyses. Heritability estimates for milk yields were in range of 0.13 to 0.29 throughout first lactation. Heritability estimates for fat percentage, protein percentage and solid-not-fat percentage were within 0.09 to 0.11, 0.12 to 0.19 and 0.17 to 0.23, respectively. For somatic cell score, heritabilities were within 0.02 to 0.04. Heritabilities for milk productions and somatic cell score were fluctuated by days in milk with comparing 305d milk production.

Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production and Adaptation Method in Korea as Evaluated by Simulation Study (생육모의 연구에 의한 한반도에서의 기후변화에 따른 벼 생산성 및 적응기술 평가)

  • Lee, Chung-Kuen;Kim, Junwhan;Shon, Jiyoung;Yang, Woon-Ho;Yoon, Young-Hwan;Choi, Kyung-Jin;Kim, Kwang-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.207-221
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    • 2012
  • Air temperature in Korea has increased by $1.5^{\circ}C$ over the last 100 years, which is nearly twice the global average rate during the same period. Moreover, it is projected that such change in temperature will continue in the 21st century. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential impacts of future climate change on the rice production and adaptation methods in Korea. Climate data for the baseline (1971~2000) and the three future climate (2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100) at fifty six sites in South Korea under IPCC SRES A1B scenario were used as the input to the rice crop model ORYZA2000. Six experimental schemes were carried out to evaluate the combined effects of climatic warming, $CO_2$ fertilization, and cropping season on rice production. We found that the average production in 2071~2100 would decrease by 23%, 27%, and 29% for early, middle, and middle-late rice maturing type, respectively, when cropping seasons were fixed. In contrast, predicted yield reduction was ~0%, 6%, and 7%, for early, middle, and middle-late rice maturing type, respectively, when cropping seasons were changed. Analysis of variation suggested that climatic warming, $CO_2$ fertilization, cropping season, and rice maturing type contributed 60, 10, 12, and 2% of rice yield, respectively. In addition, regression analysis suggested 14~46 and 53~86% of variations in rice yield were explained by grain number and filled grain ratio, respectively, when cropping season was fixed. On the other hand, 46~78 and 22~53% of variations were explained respectively with changing cropping season. It was projected that sterility caused by high temperature would have no effect on rice yield. As a result, rice yield reduction in the future climate in Korea would resulted from low filled grain ratio due to high growing temperature during grain-filling period because the $CO_2$ fertilization was insufficient to negate the negative effect of climatic warming. However, adjusting cropping seasons to future climate change may alleviate the rice production reduction by minimizing negative effect of climatic warming without altering positive effect of $CO_2$ fertilization, which improves weather condition during the grain-filling period.

Prognostic Impact of Elevation of Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Family Expression in Patients with Non-small Cell lung Cancer: an Updated Meta-analysis

  • Zheng, Chun-Long;Qiu, Chen;Shen, Mei-Xiao;Qu, Xiao;Zhang, Tie-Hong;Zhang, Ji-Hong;Du, Jia-Jun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.1881-1895
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    • 2015
  • Background: The vascular endothelial growth factor family has been implicated in tumorigenesis and metastasis. The prognostic value of each vascular endothelial growth factor family member, particular VEGF/VEGFR co-expression, in patients with non-small lung cancer remains controversial. Materials and Methods: Relevant literature was identified by searching PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science. Studies evaluating expression of VEGFs and/or VEGFRs by immunohistochemistry or ELISA in lung cancer tissue were eligible for inclusion. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from individual study were pooled by using a fixed- or random-effect model, heterogeneity and publication bias analyses were also performed. Results: 74 studies covering 7,631 patients were included in the meta-analysis. Regarding pro-angiogenesis factors, the expression of VEGFA (HR=1.633, 95%CI: 1.490-1.791) and VEGFR1 (HR=1.924, 95%CI: 1.220-3.034) was associated separately with poor survival. Especially, VEGFA over-expression was an independent prognostic factor in adenocarcinoma (ADC) (HR=1.775, 95%CI: 1.384-2.275) and SCC (HR=2.919, 95%CI: 2.060-4.137). Co-expression of VEGFA/VEGFR2 (HR=2.011, 95%CI: 1.405-2.876) was also significantly associated with worse survival. For lymphangiogenesis factors, the expression of VEGFC (HR=1.611, 95%CI: 1.407-1.844) predicted a poor prognosis. Co-expression of VEGFC/VEGFR3 (HR=2.436, 95%CI: 1.468-4.043) emerged as a preferable prognostic marker. Conclusions: The expression of VEGFA (particularly in SCC and early stage NSCLC), VEGFC, VEGFR1 indicates separately an unfavorable prognosis in patients with NSCLC. Co-expression VEGFA/VEGFR2 is comparable with VEGFC/VEGFR3, both featuring sufficient discrimination value as preferable as prognostic biologic markers.

An Analysis of Bed Change Characteristics by Bed Protection Work (바닥보호공 설치에 따른 하상변동 특성 분석)

  • Son, Ah Long;Kim, Byung Hyun;Moon, Bo Ram;Han, Kun Yeun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.821-834
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    • 2015
  • This study presents the analysis of flow and bed change characteristics considering bed protection work built on the immediate downstream of weir to protect river bed from scouring. The study area is 37km reach from Hyunpoong station to Masuwon station including Hapcheon- Changryoung multi-function weir in the Nakdong river. CCHE2D model is calibrated and validated for evaluating the flow and bed change characteristics during Typhoon Kompasu in 2010. Three simulation conditions are set up: Case 1 is a natural channel without installation of weir. Case 2 involves an installation of weir in the natural channel. Case 3 involves an installation of weir with bed protection in the natural channel. Flood frequency (50, 100 and 200yr) is applied to each scenario to analyze the effects of bed protection work. While the sediment rate is increased in the downstream of fixed gate and sluice-type gate, river bed scouring rate is increased in the downstream of lift-type gate in Case 2 comparing with the results of Case 1. The river bed scouring is not occurred in the immediate downstream of weir (~30m) due to the effect of bed protection, but larger amount of sediment is occurred in the downstream of weir (60m~) which the bed protection is not installed comparing with the results Case 1. Through the results of simulation considering bed protection work, this study would be helpful to expect bed change and operate the weir as well as manage.

The Effects of Rotational Correlation Time of Paramagnetic Contrast Agents on Relaxation Enhancement: Partial Binding to Macromolecules (거대분자에 부분적으로 결합한 상자성 자기공명 조영제의 회전속도가 이완증강에 미치는 영향)

  • 장용민
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.159-166
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    • 1999
  • Purpose : To evaluate the effect of rotational correlation time (${\tau}_R$) and the possible related changes of other parameters, ${\tau}_M,{\;}{\tau}_S,{\;}and{\;}(\tau}_V$ of gadolinium (Gd) chelate on T1 relaxation enhancement in two pool model. Materials and Methods : The NMRD (Nuclear Magnetic Relaxation Dispersion) profiles were simulated from 0.02 MHz to 800 MHz proton Larmor frequency for different values of rotational correlation times based on Solomon-Bloembergen equation for inner-sphere relaxation enhancement. To include both unbound pool (pool A) and bound pool (pool B), the relaxivity was divided by contribution from unbound pool and bound pool. The rotational correlation time for pool A was fixed at the value of 0.1 ns, which is a typical value for low molecular weight complexes such as Gd-DTPA in solution and ${\tau}_R$ for pool B was changed from 0.1 ns to 20 ns to allow the slower rotation by binding to macromolecule. The fractional factor of was also adjusted from 0 to 1.0 to simulate different binding ratios to macromolecule. Since the binding of Gd-chelate to macromolecule cab alter the electronic environment of Gd ion and also the degree of bulk water access to hydration site of Gd-chelate, the effects of these parameters were also included. Results : The result shows that low field profiles, ranged from 0.02 to 40 MHz, and dominated by contribution from bound pool, which is bound to macromolecule regardless of binding ratios. In addition, as more Gd-chelate bound to macromolecule, sharp increase of relaxivity at higher field occurs. The NMRD profiles for different values of ${\tau}_S$ show the enormous increase of low field profile whereas relaxivity at high field is not affected by ${\tau}_S$. On the other hand, the change in ${\tau}$V does not affect low field profile but strongly in fluences on both inflection fie이 and the maximum relaxivity value. The results shows a fluences on both inflection field and the maximum relaxivity value. The results shows a parabolic dependence of relaxivity on ${\tau}_M$. Conclusion : Binding of Gd-chelate to a macromolecule causes slower rotational tumbling of Gd-chelate and would result in relaxation enhancement, especially in clinical imaging field. However, binding to macromolecule can change water enchange rate (${\tau}_M$) and electronic relaxation ($T_le$) vis structural deformation of electron environment and the access of bulk water to hydration site of metal-chelate. The clinical utilities of Gd-chelate bound to macromolecule are the less dose requirement, the tissue specificity, and the better perfusion and intravascular agents.

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The Effect of Total Patellectomy in the Prosthetic Replacement of Proximal Tibia (경골 근위부 종양에서 인공 삽입물 사용시 슬개골 전적출술이 관절기능 회복에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Il-Hyung;Kim, Jae-Do;Ihn, Joo-Chul;Chun, In-Ho
    • The Journal of the Korean bone and joint tumor society
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.8-17
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    • 1996
  • The purpose of this study is a comparative evaluation of range motion, especially extension deficit between the group of total patellectomy and that of intact patella, after reconstruction of the patellar tendon in the prosthetic replacement of a proximal tibia. Between 1990 and 1994, 15 patients who had a primary malignancy on proximal tibia were operated on. All patients were evaluated clinically and radiographically. Two patients were excluded because one had a deep infection treated with arthrodesis of the knee and the other was a composite allograft. The mean follow-up of the 13 patients was 27 months(15-47), including 10 osteosarcomas, 1 chondrosarcoma, 1 malignant fibrous histiocytoma and 1 malignant giant cell tumor. Eleven patients had a resection of the proximal tibia and 2 had an extracapsular total knee resection with distal femur. Reconstruction of the defect was done in 8 cases with a custom-made Link Endo-Model Total Rotation Knee Joint Prosthesis, and in 5 with How Medica Modular Resection System (HMRS). We used two methods to reconstruct the ligamentum patellae. Fixation of the patellar tendon to the prosthesis only with suturing and/or stapling(group SS) was done in 7. Transposition of gastrocnemius muscle to enhance fixation and to cover the prosthesis(group TG) was done in 6. Regardless of fixation methods, total patellectomy was done in 5 either to lengthen the patellar tendon or to make primary skin closure easier or for both. In 8 cases, patella was left intact or resurfaced with polyethylene prosthesis. Active extension was measured while the patient was in a sitting position. There is no statistically meaningful difference in terms of extension deficit (Wilcoxon rank test, p=0.8800) between patellectomy group and intact patella group, and between group of fixation only with suturing and that of gastrocnemius transposition. Two cases of extension deficit over 30 degree were seen in group SS and in the group of intact patella. Conclusively, total patellectomy could be an option without increasing the risk of extension deficit when primary skin closure is difficult or patellar tendon is a little bit short to be fixed. There is no rating in the Enneking system of functional evaluation that this finding into consideration.

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Data Dissemination Protocol based on Home Agent and Access Node for Mobile Sink in Sensor Network (센서 네트워크에서 홈에이젼트와 액세스 노드에 기반한 모바일 싱크를 위한 데이터 전송 기법)

  • Lee, Joa-Hyoung;Jung, In-Bum
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartC
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    • v.15C no.5
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    • pp.383-390
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    • 2008
  • The mobile sink is most suitable to guarantee the real time processing to events in ubiquitous environment. However it brings many challenges to wireless sensor networks. In particular, the question of how to transfer the collected data to the mobile sink is an important topic in the aspect of effective management of wireless sensor nodes. In this paper, a new data dissemination model is proposed. Since this method uses the home agent and the access node concepts, it provides reliable and efficient data delivery to mobile sink with minimum overhead. In this proposed method, the information of the mobile sink which is constantly moving is informed only to the home agent node and the access node, instead of all sensor nodes. Thus, the collected data from sensor nodes are transferred to the fixed home agent and it sends these data to the mobile sink. Since the confliction phenomenon between data packets in wireless networks could be reduced, the success ratio of data arriving in the mobile sink is highly enhanced. In our experiments, the proposed method reduces the number of broadcast packets so that it saves the amount of energy consumed for transmitting and receiving the data packets. This effect contributes to prolong the lifetime of the wireless sensor networks operated by batteries.

Wage Differentials between Non-regular and Regular Works - A Panel Data Approach - (비정규 근로와 정규 근로의 임금격차에 관한 연구 - 패널자료를 사용한 분석 -)

  • Nam, Jaeryang
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.1-31
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyse wage differentials between non-regular and regular works. Data from EAPS(Economically Active Population Survey) 2005 show that the monthly wage level of non-regular worker is only 63% of regular worker and thus there exist 37% wage differentials. However, these wage differentials do not control for hours of work, the amount of human capital, job characteristics, and other individual characteristics affecting wages. If these variables are added to the hourly wage regression equation, the wage gap between non-regular and regular workers drastically decreases to 2.2%. Furthermore, decomposition of the wage differentials by Oaxaca method shows that productivity difference between non-regular and regular workers explains up to 91% of the wage gap. This implies that the magnitude of wage discrimination against non-regular workers is at most 0.2% of hourly wage of regular workers. To control for unobserved individual heterogeneities more accurately, we also construct panel data and estimate wage differentials. The results from the panel data approach show that there is no difference in the hourly wages between non-regular and regular workers. In some specifications, the wage rate of non-regular worker is rather higher than that of regular worker. These results are consistent with economic theory. Other things being equal, workers with unstable employment may require higher wages to compensate their unstability. Firms are willing to pay higher wages if they can get more flexibility from non-regular employment. Empirical results in this paper cast doubt on the view that there is wage discrimination against non-regular workers in the labor market. Public policies should be targeted for disadvantaged groups among non-regular workers, not for non-regular workers in general.

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Association Between the GSTP1 Codon 105 Polymorphism and Gastric Cancer Risk: an Updated Meta-analysis

  • Bao, Li-Dao;Niu, Jian-Xiang;Song, Hui;Wang, Yi;Ma, Rui-Lian;Ren, Xian-Hua;Wu, Xin-Lin
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.8
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    • pp.3687-3693
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    • 2012
  • Objective: The current meta-analysis was performed to address a more accurate estimation of the association between glutathione S-transferase P1 (GSTP1) codon 105 polymorphism and risk of gastric cancer (GC), which has been widely reported with conflicting results. Methods: A comprehensive literature search was conducted to identify all the relevant studies. Fixed or random effect models were selected based on the heterogeneity test. Publication bias was estimated using Begg's funnel plots and Egger's regression test. Results: A total of 20 studies containing 2,821 GC cases and 6,240 controls were finally included in the analyses. Overall, no significant association between GSTP1 polymorphism and GC risk was observed in worldwide populations. However, subgroup analysis stratified by ethnicity showed that GSTP1 polymorphism was significantly associated with increased risk of GC in Asians (G vs. A, OR = 1.273, 95%CI=1.011-1.605; GG vs. AA, OR=2.103, 95%CI=1.197-3.387; GG vs. AA+AG, OR =2.103, 95%CI=1.186-3.414). In contrast, no significant association was found in Caucasians in any genetic models, except for with AG vs. AA (OR=0.791, 95%CI=0.669-0.936). Furthermore, the GSTP1 polymorphism was found to be significantly associated with GC in patients with H. pylori infection and in those with a cardiac GC. Subgroup analysis stratified by Lauren's classification and smoking status showed no significant association with any genetic model. No studies were found to significantly influence the pooled effects in each genetic mode, and no potential publication bias was detected. Conclusion: This meta-analysis suggested that the GSTP1 polymorphism might be associated with increased risk of GC in Asians, while GSTP1 heterozygote genotype seemed to be associated with reduced risk of GC. Since potential confounders could not be ruled out completely, further studies are needed to confirm these results.